Value management and model pluralism in climate science

Non-epistemic values pervade climate modelling, as is now well documented and widely discussed in the philosophy of climate science. Recently, Parker and Winsberg have drawn attention to what can be termed “epistemic inequality”: this is the risk that climate models might more accurately represent the future climates of the geographical regions prioritised by the values of the modellers. In this paper, we promote value management as a way of overcoming epistemic inequality. We argue that value management can be seriously considered as soon as the value-free ideal and inductive risk arguments commonly used to frame the discussions of value influence in climate science are replaced by alternative social accounts of objectivity. We consider objectivity in Longino's sense as well as strong objectivity in Harding's sense to be relevant options here, because they offer concrete proposals that can guide scientific practice in evaluating and designing so-called multi-model ensembles and, in fine, improve their capacity to quantify and express uncertainty in climate projections.     

Holism, physical theories and quantum mechanics

Motivated by the question what it is that makes quantum mechanics a holistic theory (if so), I try to define for general physical theories what we mean by `holism'. For this purpose I propose an epistemological criterion to decide whether or not a physical theory is holistic, namely: a physical theory is holistic if and only if it is impossible in principle to infer the global properties, as assigned in the theory, by local resources available to an agent. I propose that these resources include at least all local operations and classical communication. This approach is contrasted with the well-known approaches to holism in terms of supervenience. The criterion for holism proposed here involves a shift in emphasis from ontology to epistemology. I apply this epistemological criterion to classical physics and Bohmian mechanics as represented on a phase and configuration space respectively, and for quantum mechanics (in the orthodox interpretation) using the formalism of general quantum operations as completely positive trace non-increasing maps. Furthermore, I provide an interesting example from which one can conclude that quantum mechanics is holistic in the above mentioned sense, although, perhaps surprisingly, no entanglement is needed.     

Scientific pluralism and the Chemical Revolution

In a number of papers and in his recent book, Is Water H₂O? Evidence, Realism, Pluralism (2012), Hasok Chang has argued that the correct interpretation of the Chemical Revolution provides a strong case for the view that progress in science is served by maintaining several incommensurable “systems of practice” in the same discipline, and concerning the same region of nature. This paper is a critical discussion of Chang's reading of the Chemical Revolution. It seeks to establish, first, that Chang's assessment of Lavoisier's and Priestley's work and character follows the phlogistonists' “actors' sociology”; second, that Chang simplifies late-eighteenth-century chemical debates by reducing them to an alleged conflict between two systems of practice; third, that Chang's evidence for a slow transition from phlogistonist theory to oxygen theory is not strong; and fourth, that he is wrong to assume that chemists at the time did not have overwhelming good reasons to favour Lavoisier's over the phlogistonists' views.     

The unfolding of the historical style in modern cosmology: Emergence,evolution, entrenchment

This paper traces the emergence, evolution and subsequent entrenchment of the historical style in the shifting scene of modern cosmological inquiry. It argues that the historical style in cosmology was forged in the early decades of the 20^th century and continued to evolve in the century that followed. Over time, the scene of cosmological inquiry has gradually become dominated and entirely constituted by historicist explanations. Practices such as forwards and backwards temporal extrapolation (thinking about the past evolutionary history of the universe with different initial conditions and other parameters) are now commonplace. The non-static geometrization of the cosmos in the early 20th century led to inquires thinking about the cosmos in evolutionary terms. Drawing on the historical approach of Gamow (and contrasting this with the ahistorical approach of Bondi), the paper then argues that the historical style became a major force as inquirers began scouring the universe for fossils and other relics as a new form of scientific practice—cosmic palaeontology. By the 1970s the historical style became the bedrock of the discipline and the presupposition of new lines of inquiry. By the end of the 20th century, the historical style was pushed to its very limits as temporal reasoning began to occur beyond a linear historical narrative. With the atemporal ‘ensemble’ type multiverse proposals, a certain type of ahistorical reasoning has been reintroduced to cosmological discourse, which, in a sense, represents a radical de-historicization of the historical style in cosmology. Some are now even attempting to explain the laws of physics in terms of their historicity.     

Unified science as political philosophy: positivism, pluralism and liberalism

Logical positivism is widely associated with an illiberal technocratic view of politics. This view is a caricature. Some members of the left Vienna circle were explicit in their criticism of this conception of politics. In particular, Neurath’s work attempted to link the internal epistemological pluralism and tolerance of logical empiricism with political pluralism and the rejection of a technocratic politics. This paper examines the role that unified science played in Neurath’s defence of political and social pluralism. Neurath’s project of unified science addressed problems that lie at the centre of recent debates around liberalism concerning the possibility of social co-operation in conditions of pluralism. His response is distinctive in calling upon an empiricist tradition that differs from Kantian proceduralist approaches that have predominated in recent liberalism. While Neurath’s position has problems, it deserves reconsideration, especially in so far as it questions the Kantian assumption that a thin language of abstract rights provides the best basis for the cosmopolital lingua franca required by conditions of social pluralism. An investigation of the role that unified science plays in Neurath’s politics also gives reasons for revising common misconceptions about the nature of the unity of science programme itself.     

Knowledge transfer in theoretical ecology: Implications for incommensurability,voluntarism, and pluralism

Well-known epistemologies of science have implications for how best to understand knowledge transfer (KT). Yet, to date, no serious attempt has been made to explicate these particular implications. This paper infers views about KT from two popular epistemologies; what we characterize as incommensurabilitist views (after Devitt, 2001; Bird, 2002, 2008; Sankey and Hoyningen-Huene 2013) and voluntarist views (after Van Fraassen, 1984; Dupré, 2001; Chakravartty, 2015). We argue views of the former sort define the methodological, ontological, and social conditions under which research operates within ‘different worlds’ (to use Kuhn's expression), and entail that genuine KTs under those conditions should be difficult or even impossible. By contrast, more liberal voluntarist views recognize epistemological processes that allow for transfers across different sciences even under such conditions. After outlining these antithetical positions, we identify two kinds of KTs present in well-known episodes in the history of ecology—specifically, successful model transfers from chemical kinetics and thermodynamics into areas of ecological research—which reveal significant limitations of incommensurabilitist views. We conclude by discussing how the selected examples support a pluralistic voluntarism regarding KT.     

Assessing climate model projections: State of the art and philosophical reflections

The present paper draws on climate science and the philosophy of science in order to evaluate climate-model-based approaches to assessing climate projections. We analyze the difficulties that arise in such assessment and outline criteria of adequacy for approaches to it. In addition, we offer a critical overview of the approaches used in the IPCC working group one fourth report, including the confidence building, Bayesian and likelihood approaches. Finally, we consider approaches that do not feature in the IPCC reports, including three approaches drawn from the philosophy of science. We find that all available approaches face substantial challenges, with IPCC approaches having as a primary source of difficulty their goal of providing probabilistic assessments.     

Seepage,objectivity, and climate science

Based on the disproportionate amount of attention paid by climate scientists to the supposed global warming hiatus, it has recently been argued that contrarian discourse has “seeped into” climate science. While I agree that seepage has occurred, its effects remain unclear. This lack of clarity may give the impression that climate science has been compromised in a way that it hasn't—such a conclusion should be defended against. To do this I argue that the effects of seepage should be analyzed in terms of objectivity. I use seven meanings of objectivity to analyze contrarian discourse's impact on climate science. The resulting account supports the important point that climate science has not been compromised in a way that invalidates the conclusions its scientists have drawn, despite the reality of seepage having occurred.     

Introduction to values and pluralism in the environmental sciences: From inferences to institutions

Philosophers of science continue to elaborate our understanding of the roles that values play in scientific reasoning, practice, and institutions. This special issue focuses on the environmental sciences, a mosaic of fields ranging from restoration ecology to forestry to climatology, unified by its attention to the relationships between humans and their habitats. It is a field that revolves around ameliorating environmental problems, aiming to support the provision of social goods and provide guidance to policymakers about how to regulate individuals and industries. Values abound in such judgments as setting the boundaries of an ecosystem, integrating the human dimensions of social-ecological systems, and collaborating with stakeholders. Since few in the field are likely to insist that these judgments can be made without reference to social values, environmental science can serve as fertile ground for exploring the ethical, social, and political terrain at the frontier of the science and values discourse.     

Values and uncertainties in climate prediction,revisited

Philosophers continue to debate both the actual and the ideal roles of values in science. Recently, Eric Winsberg has offered a novel, model-based challenge to those who argue that the internal workings of science can and should be kept free from the influence of social values. He contends that model-based assignments of probability to hypotheses about future climate change are unavoidably influenced by social values. I raise two objections to Winsberg’s argument, neither of which can wholly undermine its conclusion but each of which suggests that his argument exaggerates the influence of social values on estimates of uncertainty in climate prediction. I then show how a more traditional challenge to the value-free ideal seems tailor-made for the climate context.     

Predicting weather and climate: Uncertainty,ensembles and probability

Simulation-based weather and climate prediction now involves the use of methods that reflect a deep concern with uncertainty. These methods, known as ensemble prediction methods, produce multiple simulations for predictive periods of interest, using different initial conditions, parameter values and/or model structures. This paper provides a non-technical overview of current ensemble methods and considers how the results of studies employing these methods should be interpreted, paying special attention to probabilistic interpretations. A key conclusion is that, while complicated inductive arguments might be given for the trustworthiness of probabilistic weather forecasts obtained from ensemble studies, analogous arguments are out of reach in the case of long-term climate prediction. In light of this, the paper considers how predictive uncertainty should be conveyed to decision makers.     

Neural model identification,variable selection and model adequacy

In recent years an impressive array of publications has appeared claiming considerable successes of neural networks in modelling financial data but sceptical practitioners and statisticians are still raising the question of whether neural networks really are ‘a major breakthrough or just a passing fad’. A major reason for this is the lack of procedures for performing tests for misspecified models, and tests of statistical significance for the various parameters that have been estimated, which makes it difficult to assess the model's significance and the possibility that any short‐term successes that are reported might be due to ‘data mining’. In this paper we describe a methodology for neural model identification which facilitates hypothesis testing at two levels: model adequacy and variable significance. The methodology includes a model selection procedure to produce consistent estimators, a variable selection procedure based on statistical significance and a model adequacy procedure based on residuals analysis. We propose a novel, computationally efficient scheme for estimating sampling variability of arbitrarily complex statistics for neural models and apply it to variable selection. The approach is based on sampling from the asymptotic distribution of the neural model's parameters (‘parametric sampling’). Controlled simulations are used for the analysis and evaluation of our model identification methodology. A case study in tactical asset allocation is used to demonstrate how the methodology can be applied to real‐life problems in a way analogous to stepwise forward regression analysis. Neural models are contrasted to multiple linear regression. The results indicate the presence of non‐linear relationships in modelling the equity premium. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The many faces of unification and pluralism in economics: The case of Paul Samuelson's Foundations of Economic Analysis

The history of modern economics abounds with pleas for more pluralism as well as pleas for more unification. These seem to be contradictory goals, suggesting that pluralism and unification are mutually exclusive, or at least that they involve trade-offs with more of one necessarily being traded off against less of the other. This paper will use the example of Paul Samuelson's Foundations of Economic Analysis (1947) to argue that the relationship between pluralism and unification is often more complex than this simple dichotomy suggests. In particular, Samuelson's Foundations is invariably presented as a key text in the unification of modern economics during the middle of the twentieth century; and in many ways that is entirely correct. But Samuelson's unification was not at the theoretical (causal and explanatory) level, but rather at the purely mathematical derivational level. Although this fact is recognized in the literature on Samuelson, what seems to be less recognized is that for Samuelson, much of the motivation for this unification was pluralist in spirit: not to narrow scientific economics into one single theory, but rather to allow for more than one theory to co-exist under a single unified derivational technique. This hidden pluralism will be discussed in detail. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications for more recent developments in economics.     

Biosynthesis, immunity, regulation, mode of action and engineering of the model lantibiotic nisin

This review discusses the state-of-the-art in molecular research on the most prominent and widely applied lantibiotic, i.e., nisin. The developments in understanding its complex biosynthesis and mode of action are highlighted. Moreover, novel applications arising from engineering either nisin itself, or from the construction of totally novel dehydrated and/or lanthionine-containing peptides with desired bioactivities are described. Several challenges still exist in understanding the immunity system and the unique multiple reactions occurring on a single substrate molecule, carried out by the dehydratase NisB and the cyclization enzyme NisC. The recent elucidation of the 3-D structure of NisC forms the exciting beginning of further 3-D-structure determinations of the other biosynthetic enzymes, transporters and immunity proteins. Advances in achieving in vitro activities of lanthionine-forming enzymes will greatly enhance our understanding of the molecular characteristics of the biosynthesis process, opening up new avenues for developing unique and novel biocatalytic processes. Received 9 April 2007; received after revision 31 August 2007; accepted 28 September 2007     

Tyrosinase inhibitors from natural and synthetic sources: structure, inhibition mechanism and perspective for the future

Tyrosinase is known to be a key enzyme in melanin biosynthesis, involved in determining the color of mammalian skin and hair. Various dermatological disorders, such as melasma, age spots and sites of actinic damage, arise from the accumulation of an excessive level of epidermal pigmentation. In addition, unfavorable enzymatic browning of plant-derived foods by tyrosinase causes a decrease in nutritional quality and economic loss of food products. The inadequacy of current conventional techniques to prevent tyrosinase action encourages us to seek new potent tyrosinase inhibitors. This article overviews the various inhibitors obtained from natural and synthetic sources with their industrial importance.Received 9 February 2005; received after revision 4 April 2005; accepted 14 April 2005     

Calcium signalling: a historical account, recent developments and future perspectives

Ca2+ is a uniquely important messenger that penetrates into cells through gated channels to transmit signals to a large number of enzymes. The evolutionary choice of Ca2+ was dictated by its unusual chemical properties, which permit its reversible complexation by specific proteins in the presence of much larger amounts of other potentially competing cations. The decoding of the Ca2+ signal consists in two conformational changes of the complexing proteins, of which calmodulin is the most important. The first occurs when Ca2+ is bound, the second (a collapse of the elongated protein) when interaction with the targeted enzymes occurs. Soluble proteins such as calmodulin contribute to the buffering of cell Ca2+, but membrane intrinsic transporting proteins are more important. Ca2+ is transported across the plasma membrane (channel, a pump, a Na+/Ca2+ exchanger) and across the membrane of the organelles. The endoplasmic reticulum is the most dynamic store: it accumulates Ca2+ by a pump, and releases it via channels gated by either inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate (IP3) and cyclic adenosine diphosphate ribose (cADPr). The mitochondrion is more sluggish, but it is closed-connected with the reticulum, and senses microdomains of high Ca2+ close to IP3 or cADPr release channels. The regulation of Ca2+ in the nucleus, where important Ca(2+)-sensitive processes reside, is a debated issue. Finally, if the control of cellular Ca2+ homeostasis somehow fails (excess penetration), mitochondria 'buy time' by precipitating inside Ca2+ and phosphate. If injury persists, Ca2(+)-death eventually ensues.     

Drugs of the future: the hormone relaxin

The peptide hormone relaxin is emerging as a multi-functional factor in a broad range of target tissues including several non-reproductive organs, in addition to its historical role as a hormone of pregnancy. This review discusses the evidence that collectively demonstrates the many diverse and vital roles of relaxin: the homeostatic role of endogenous relaxin in mammalian pregnancy and ageing; its gender-related effects; the therapeutic effects of relaxin in the treatment of fibrosis, inflammation, cardioprotection, vasodilation and wound healing (angiogenesis) amongst other pathophysiological conditions, and its potential mechanism of action. Furthermore, translational issues using experimental models (to humans) and its use in various clinical trials, are described, each with important lessons for the design of future trials involving relaxin. The diverse physiological and pathological roles for relaxin have led to the search for its significance in humans and highlight its potential as a drug of the future. Received 12 December 2006; received after revision 12 February 2007; accepted 15 March 2007