《蒙特利尔议定书》中国际臭氧消耗物质控排政策效果评述

介绍了《蒙特利尔议定书》发展进程及其重大成果,并将各类消耗臭氧层物质(ODS)年度消耗量变化趋势中的转折点与国际应对政策对应,进行了简单因果性分析,分析结果显示:《蒙特利尔议定书》中ODS减排政策效果显著。同时,总结了《蒙特利尔议定书》组织和管理、资金管理方面值得其他国际盟约组织学习借鉴的经验,但其ODS销毁处理技术、ODS流动数据统计和各国所捐资金到位等方面有待提高之处。     

古气候动力学及国际PMIP进展

气候预测是上前全球变化研究的主要目标,自然条件下的古气候系统是预测气候变化的重要参照系,而以物理机制为基础的古气候模拟是探索气候变化动力机制、对预测未来变化的重要而有效的途径。近十年来《全球古气候模拟对比研究计划（ＰＭＩＰ）》是国际上主要古气候模型组织对６ｋａＢＰ和２１ｋａＭＰ进行气候动力模拟的计划。了解ＰＭＩＰ的基本概况２和研究方向,对于我国参与国际ＰＭＩＰ计划中的模拟和对比研究,力争与国际２０     

欧盟可再生能源发展经验

欧盟能源政策的三个基本支点是：能源安全供应、环境保护和能源产业竞争力.在不同时期，其侧重点不同：在上世纪70年代，其重点是确保安全供应;当前的能源政策重点转向环境保护，即更多地利用对环境友好的可再生能源（RES）.特别是在欧盟已经签署和批准《京都议定书》的情况下，其能源政策与环境保护政策日益紧密地联系在一起.现在，欧盟发展可再生能源政策已被提升到战略的高度。     

全球生物科技发展态势及对我国的启示

2019年,世界主要经济体加强生物科技领域战略布局,尤其是在生物经济方面提出国家级规划与路线图,在项目部署方面重视前沿颠覆性技术。本文首先梳理了美国、加拿大、欧盟、英国等国家和地区发布的生物经济战略、实施路线图和相关的项目部署。随后对全球生物科技领域的重要进展进行总结,重点关注研发现状和生物技术与其他技术之间交叉融合的大趋势。研究发现,全球生物科技发展呈现以下五点趋势:生物多样性保护形势严峻;生物资源挖掘利用更加深入;新兴技术与工具的快速发展推动生物科学与技术向纵深发展;人类修饰生命创造生命的能力不断提升促进工程生物学应用的不断扩展;全球科技交叉融合日益凸显。最后,基于政策和研发趋势,本文提出了制定国家生物经济发展战略、调整和优化学科布局、支持核心技术研发、制定和完善产业扶持政策等建议,以促进我国生物科技领域的创新发展。     

从WIPO系列报告看中国加强知识产权赋能创新发展态势

以世界知识产权组织(WIPO)近年来发布的《全球创新指数报告》《世界知识产权指标》《世界知识产权报告》为基础,进一步解读国际技术创新发展趋势与特点;基于对WIPO报告的系统分析结果,对比近20年来中国与美国、英国、德国、法国、日本五大科技强国在知识产权与技术创新方面的变化趋势,揭示我国的知识产权发展与创新的进步与差距。最后,针对我国知识产权促进技术创新发展的不足与短板,提出进一步加强知识产权赋能创新驱动发展的方向性建议与展望:营造促进创新高效转化的政策制度环境,激励高质量、原创性知识产权创造供给;提高知识产权全球化治理能力,完善中国特色知识产权治理体系,促进知识产权与国家经济社会全面融合发展;充分发挥知识产权智库支撑作用,重视和强化知识产权与区域创新政策的战略研究。     

权威学术期刊将限制发表“危险”研究成果

《科学》、《自然》等近 2 0家权威国际学术期刊主编在一份联合声明中称 ,那些有可能被恐怖分子等所利用、潜在危险性超过其益处的研究论文 ,必须修改后才能在他们的刊物上发表或根本就不应予以刊登。这份声明已经在于美国丹佛举行的美国科学促进协会年会上公开 ,并正式刊登于《科学》、《自然》和美国《全国科学院学报》等学术杂志上。声明指出 ,学术期刊上刊登的研究论文 ,一般在保护公共健康、提高农作物产量、促进新技术开发和经济增长以及增强全球稳定与安全等方面都具有重要作用 ,因此这些论文必须包含足够细节 ,以供其他科学家进行独…     

日本与全球主要国家的科技活动对比

<正>2017年8月9日,日本科技政策研究所(NISTEP)对日本及全球主要国家的科技活动进行对比,发布了《科学技术指标2017》报告。主要内容如下:研发支出情况(2015)日本的研发支出总额为18.9万亿日元,居美国(51.2万亿日元)和中国(41.9万亿日元)之后位列全球第3。从支出主体来看,全球主要国家均为企业的研发支出占比最大,其中亚洲各国尤为突出;而欧洲主要     

厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)研究的战略部署与研究热点

厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(ENSO)影响着全球气候,被认为与众多全球灾害性天气事件有关。为了更好地了解ENSO研究的发展趋势及其对全球海洋事务的影响,本文对WCRP、GOOS和TPOS 2020等与ENSO研究相关的国际研究计划和各国家地区的ENSO研究战略情况进行梳理,并结合VOSviewer文献计量学方法进行分析,探讨ENSO研究的国际发展趋势及研究热点,以便为我国ENSO相关研究与决策提供参考。     

多级竞争格局下的国际科技形势

<正>2019年5月,欧洲顶尖智库布鲁盖尔研究所(Bruegel)发布研究报告《欧洲——全球卓越研究中心》(Europe-the Global Centre for Excellent Research),分析了以美国、欧洲、中国形成的多极竞争局面为主的国际科技形势,并且评价了欧洲研发经费产出绩效,在此基础上就提升欧洲卓越研究能力提出建议。全球科技研究趋势及欧盟的国际地位:目前,美国和欧洲在卓越研究方面仍处于主导地位,全球绝大多数排名靠前的大学都来自美国,欧洲大学的排名也在逐渐提高。值得一提的是,近年来中国的科研成果产出和高被引论文数量增长迅速,大学排名一路飙升。     

美国海洋科学技术两个"十年"计划比较分析及对我国的启示

世界主要海洋国家中,美国最为重视海洋科技发展战略规划.进入21世纪,美国发布了两个引领其海洋科技事业发展的"十年"计划,第一个是《绘制美国未来十年海洋科学路线图:海洋研究优先计划及实施战略》(2007-2017),第二个是《美国海洋科学与技术:十年愿景》(2018-2028),它们为美国在新的历史时期的海洋科技发展确定...     

An overview of climate change impacts on the society in China

Society could sustain the impact of climate change by adapting to the change and mitigating risks from adverse effects of increasing changes, so that it can continue maintaining its prospect and improving wellbeing. Nevertheless, climate change is more or less affecting society's functions at different scales, including both individuals and communities. In this review, we discuss the relationship between society and climate change in China from the aspects of the needs at different socioeconomic developing stages. The relationship as well as the current spatial pattern and future risks of the climate change impacts on societies are summarized. The complexity of social and climatic systems leads to the spatial heterogeneity of climate impacts and risks in China. To more effectively leverage increasing knowledge about the past, we advocate greater cross-disciplinary collaboration between climate adaption, poverty alleviation and Nature-based Solutions (Nbs). That could provide decision makers with more comprehensive train of thoughts for climate policy making.     

An overview of climate change impacts on the society in China

Society could sustain the impact of climate change by adapting to the change and mitigating risks from adverse effects of increasing changes, so that it can continue maintaining its prospect and improving wellbeing. Nevertheless, climate change is more or less affecting society's functions at different scales, including both individuals and communities. In this review, we discuss the relationship between society and climate change in China from the aspects of the needs at different socioeconomic developing stages. The relationship as well as the current spatial pattern and future risks of the climate change impacts on societies are summarized. The complexity of social and climatic systems leads to the spatial heterogeneity of climate impacts and risks in China. To more effectively leverage increasing knowledge about the past, we advocate greater cross-disciplinary collaboration between climate adaption, poverty alleviation and Nature-based Solutions (Nbs). That could provide decision makers with more comprehensive train of thoughts for climate policy making.     

It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.     

It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.     

Climates as commodities: Jean Pierre Purry and the modelling of the best climate on Earth

The paper looks at how an early eighteenth-century climatological model of the ‘best climate’ on Earth became a platform for political, economic, and demographic action of extraordinary significance for the colonization of new commodity environments. It analyzes the science used by an early modern business adventurer to model ‘climate’ as an economic tool informing imperial governance and exploitation of local resources. Jean Pierre Purry’s construction of ‘model climate’ portrayed North Carolina’s township at Yamassee River as an ideal environment geared toward mercantilist principles of trade but also as a model community based on skilled labor and optimal climatic capital. His climatological analysis was a purposeful act of policy making based on a science of colonial expansion similar to more recent calls at economic modelling of future climate impact.     

从近年科技投入变化看美国科技政策的变化

美国能够成为世界头号科技大国，其科技政策功不可没。近年来，美国不断调整其科技政策以保证站在世界的最前列，这可以从美国在科技中投入的不断变化看出来。本文基于冷战结束至今美国在科技中投入的变化，分析了美国科技政策十几年来的变化特点。     

“Global warming” versus “climate change”: A replication on the association between political self-identification,question wording,and environmental beliefs

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to humanity and requires immediate action. Schuldt, Konrath, and Schwarz (2011) suggested that beliefs in environmental phenomena can be influenced by the terminology used to describe it: changing question wording from global warming to climate change resulted in a 6.3 percentage point increase in belief in environmental phenomena. This association was moderated by political self-identification, with Republicans being 16.2 percentage points more likely to believe in climate change than in global warming, with Democrats showing no difference. The potential for connotative meanings to shift over time and the sociopolitical changes since the original study, potential policy and environmental campaign implications, and an expansion of these findings to other countries, motivated an attempt to replicate this important finding. This pre-registered study repeated the original procedures in the United States of America and two other countries (United Kingdom and Australia; total N = 5,717). Although question wording no longer had a significant effect on beliefs in climate change/global warming, the association of political self-identification with beliefs in environmental phenomena replicated in all three countries, with Conservatives consistently believing less in climate change/global warming than Liberals. The potential impacts of temporal and methodological differences on the discrepancies between this study's and the original's findings are discussed.     

“Global warming” versus “climate change”: A replication on the association between political self-identification,question wording,and environmental beliefs

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to humanity and requires immediate action. Schuldt, Konrath, and Schwarz (2011) suggested that beliefs in environmental phenomena can be influenced by the terminology used to describe it: changing question wording from global warming to climate change resulted in a 6.3 percentage point increase in belief in environmental phenomena. This association was moderated by political self-identification, with Republicans being 16.2 percentage points more likely to believe in climate change than in global warming, with Democrats showing no difference. The potential for connotative meanings to shift over time and the sociopolitical changes since the original study, potential policy and environmental campaign implications, and an expansion of these findings to other countries, motivated an attempt to replicate this important finding. This pre-registered study repeated the original procedures in the United States of America and two other countries (United Kingdom and Australia; total N = 5,717). Although question wording no longer had a significant effect on beliefs in climate change/global warming, the association of political self-identification with beliefs in environmental phenomena replicated in all three countries, with Conservatives consistently believing less in climate change/global warming than Liberals. The potential impacts of temporal and methodological differences on the discrepancies between this study's and the original's findings are discussed.     

Long‐Term Forecasting of Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Reducing Uncertainties Using a Per Capita Approach

Global CO₂ emission forecasts span such a wide range as to yield little guidance for climate policy and analysis. But global per capita emissions appear to be better constrained than total emissions, which we argue has an economic justification. Trend stationarity of per capita emissions may provide a means of characterizing the relative likelihood of global forecasts. On data spanning 1950 to 2009 a unit root hypothesis allowing for endogenous structural breaks is rejected, but adding in the 2010 observation pushes the p‐value slightly over 0.1. Since structural breaks cannot be detected at the end of sample this may simply indicate a power problem. Using Monte Carlo simulations we conclude that the lower half of a well‐known suite of IPCC emission scenarios is more likely to occur than the upper half, and the top quartile is particularly difficult to justify. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.