Using the Omnibus Survey to test questions on emigration

It is important that migration is measured accurately, for example to inform population estimates and projections. However, current sources of information make it difficult to produce robust estimates of emigration from Great Britain. Several other countries, including Ireland, make use of household surveys in their estimates of migration. To investigate the feasibility of obtaining information on emigration from those resident in Great Britain, three questions were included in the Omnibus Survey for two months. Respondents were asked whether they had plans to emigrate or whether anyone in their family had recently emigrated or intended to shortly. This article reports on the results of this pilot, providing evidence on response levels, comparison with the International Passenger Survey and feedback from interviewers on the questions asked.     

The development of a 'Postcode Best Fit' methodology for producing population estimates for different geographies

A 'Postcode Best Fit' methodology has been developed by the Office for National Statistics to produce population estimates for a range of different geographies which are entirely consistent with each other, regardless of whether or not the estimates for one geography can be aggregated to produce estimates for another geography. This article describes the Postcode Best Fit methodology, its evaluation, limitations with some of the data sources used with the method, the application of the method for producing population estimates and case studies describing how the method has been used to produce bespoke population estimates to meet specific user requirements.     

Methodology used for producing ONS's small area population estimates

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has set up a project to investigate the feasibility of producing postcensal small area population estimates on a nationally consistent basis for England and Wales. Following on from earlier investigations to identify potential data sources and methods, ward and Super Output Area population estimates have been released as 'experimental statistics'. This article covers the methodology used to produce these estimates, feedback from user consultation with the initial estimates released at ward level, summary statistics on the population estimates for mid-2001 to mid-2003, and future developments for small area population estimates.     

Reviewing the mid-year population estimates in Northern Ireland

This article describes the thorough review of the mid-year population estimates for Northern Ireland. No major problems have been identified with the current estimates but a number of enhancements have been put in place. The new figures are consistent with a number of administrative data sources. The overall effect has been to revise the estimated Northern Ireland population by about 6,000 people, or between 0.3 and 0.4 per cent, for each year between 1991 and 1997. The revised estimates for Northern Ireland have been incorporated into the population figures for the United Kingdom included in the Table section of this issue of Population Trends.     

时域欠采样线性调频信号参数估计方法

针对Nyquist采样频率过高 ,硬件实现困难的问题 ,提出了一种基于分数阶傅里叶变换的时域欠采样线性调频信号参数估计方法。该方法首先用时域解线调方法估计调频斜率 ,然后在分数阶傅里叶变换域进行滤波 ,实现信号提取。利用PRO ESPRIT方法进行初始频率估计。数值仿真表明 ,本方法能够实现多个线性调频信号的高精度参数估计 ,在低信噪比下仍有较好的估计性能     

Estimating the changing population of the 'oldest old'

The population of England and Wales is becoming older. This poses an increasing demand for detailed data on the size an trends of the population at the oldes ages. Using the recently released Offic for National Statistics estimates of th population aged 90 and over in England and Wales, this article shows trends in the population of the oldest old and demographic causes of the rapid increase in centenarians during the twentieth century. It also presents further validation of the ON estimates of the oldest old with estimat from other data sources.     

一种基于四阶累积量的相干信号测向算法

利用四阶累积量估计相干信号的来波方向(DoA)需要获得修正阵列的方向矩阵。提出了一种估计修正阵列方向矩阵的改进算法,它减少了计算量,通过模式激励和空间平滑,实现均匀圆阵对来自不同独立信号源的相干信号的DoA估计,并利用虚拟阵列流形的中心对称性,将复矩阵的特征分解转换为实矩阵的特征分解,减少了计算量。相比基于自相关矩阵的算法,所提出方法提高了阵元利用率,有效地抑制了高斯噪声,不需要对模式激励后的数据进行白化处理,仿真结果表明,在低信噪比和多个独立信号源存在的条件下,有更明显的优势。     

Small area population estimates project: data quality of administrative datasets

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has set up a project to investigate the feasibility of producing postcensal small area population estimates on a nationally consistent basis for England and Wales. Research has taken place to identify datasets that could potentially be used within a method to produce small area population estimates. Following an evaluation of a number of different administrative datasets, the most suitable have been short-listed for further consideration. This article presents the findings of the evaluation, based on 2001 data, and summarises the characteristics of these short-listed data sources. This article does not cover the methods that are being evaluated as part of the feasibility assessment.     

基于粒子群优化算法的稀疏信号盲分离

把粒子群优化算法应用于稀疏信号盲分离中,采用基于粒子群优化算法的聚类算法来估计混合矩阵;然后利用粒子群优化算法在求解具有线性约束优化问题时,只需在初始化时粒子满足线性约束条件,无须做其它处理的特点来求解稀疏源信号,从而给出了一种基于粒子群优化算法的稀疏信号盲分离算法。该算法计算量小,精度较高。仿真结果表明该算法是有效的,具有良好的分离性能。     

Using data from overseas to improve estimates of emigration

Migration figures are notoriously problematic to compile, and this is primarily due to complexities in establishing the size and composition of those leaving the UK to live overseas. This article summarises an Office for National Statistics (ONS) investigation into the potential use of data held by countries receiving UK citizens in order to improve the accuracy of emigration figures.     

基于实值分解技术的循环root-MUSIC算法

通过构造了循环自相关矩阵的数据模型,使其具有厄尔米特特性,提出了一种基于实值分解技术的循环root-MUSIC算法,无需空间谱搜索,较好地解决了多径传播环境中信号高度相关问题,极大地降低了计算量。实值循环root-MUSIC算法的均方误差公式的理论推导,证明了该算法既适合独立信号,又适合高度相关信号或者相干信号。仿真实验结果证明,与循环root-MUSIC算法相比,该算法适应多径传播环境,具有计算量小和性能好等特点。     

A ROBUSTNESS ANALYSIS OF THE MUSIC AND THE MINIMUM－NORM ALGORITHMS WITH RESPECT TO CORRELMED NOISE

ＡＲＯＢＵＳＴＮＥＳＳＡＮＡＬＹＳＩＳＯＦＴＨＥＭＵＳＩＣＡＮＤＴＨＥＭＩＮＩＭＵＭ－ＮＯＲＭＡＬＧＯＲＩＴＨＭＳＷＩＴＨＲＥＳＰＥＣＴＴＯＣＯＲＲＥＬＭＥＤＮＯＩＳＥ￥ＪＩＡＰｅｉｚｈａｎｇ（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＳｙｓｔｅｍｓＳｃｔｅｎｃｅ，Ａｃ...     

基于信号时频表示的宽带源波达方向估计

提出一种时频域宽带源波达方向(DOA：Direction of Arrival)估计算法。该算法通过计算参考阵元和其它阵元的互Wigner-Ville分布，构造出一种新的时频域数据向量模型，并利用Chirp信号的局部窄带特性，在信号的主要能量聚集区选择时频点构造时频相关矩阵代替传统的阵列相关矩阵，进行特征分解实现信号的DOA估计。该方法同时在空域和时频域进行处理，充分利用了时频分布的能量聚集性，不但实现了非平稳信号时频域的分离，还有效地提高了信噪比，增强了算法对噪声的稳健性。仿真结果验证了新方法的有效性。     

均匀线阵互耦和幅相误差有源校正改进算法

阵列互耦和幅相误差会严重影响MUSIC算法的测向性能,为此重点研究了由互耦和幅相误差引起的阵列误差校正问题。针对均匀线阵,提出了一种改进的阵列误差校正算法,它通过矩阵特征分解得到一组校正源的方向向量来估计阵列误差,改进算法充分利用了均匀线阵互耦矩阵的特殊结构,并通过交替迭代的方法实现了阵列误差参数的优化校正。计算机仿真结果表明,改进算法提高了参数估计精度,并且可推广应用于校正源方位存在偏差的情况。     

Short-term international migration trends in England and Wales from 2004 to 2009

Short-term migration estimates for England and Wales are the latest addition to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) migration statistics. This article discusses definitions of short-term migration and the methodology that is used to produce the estimates. Some of the estimates and the changes in the estimates over time are then discussed. The article includes previously unpublished short-term migration statistics and therefore helps to give a more complete picture of the size and characteristics of short-term international migration for England and Wales than has previously been possible. ONS have identified a clear user requirement for short-term migration estimates at local authority (LA) level. Consequently, attention is also paid to the progress that has been made and future work that is planned to distribute England and Wales short-term migration estimates to LA level.     

One-parent families--and the dependent children living in them--in Great Britain

This article provides updated final estimates of the number of one-parent families, and of the number of dependent children living in them, from 1995 to 1997, inclusive, together with provisional estimates for 1998 to 2000. The existing methodology has been extended so that additional alternative estimates have been generated from which to assess the "best estimates". The number of one-parent families in Great Britain is provisionally estimated at 1.75 million in 2000, and the number of deppendent children living in those families as 2.9 million.     

系统平均性能测度的稳健估计

研究离散事件仿真中系统平均性能测度θ的估计问题，建立了θ的一种新的估计量—切尾均值．研究表明，这种估计在某些非正态分布中优于传统的估计量—样本均值，并具有稳健性．通过仿真实验对两种估计量进行了评价和比较，并讨论了在正态分布情形中使用切尾均值估计的损失．     

Rebasing the annual mid-year population estimates for England and Wales

The ONS produces mid-year population estimates annually, which are based on updating from the most recent census. Therefore, whenever results become available from a census, a new base is created for the population estimates. This has implications for historic series, which need to be revised to be consistent with both the past and the most recent census. This article describes the methodology that will be used for this rebasing of the mid-year population estimates following the availability of results from the 2001 Census. Census results also provide a unique opportunity to assess the accuracy of the population estimates that are based on the previous census and this article also describes the approach that will be taken to the assessment of accuracy.     

基于混合生物地理学优化的多目标优化算法

提出一种基于混合生物地理学优化算法的多目标进化算法(multi-objective optimization based on hybrid biogeography based optimization, MOBBO)。针对生物地理学优化算法(biogeography based optimization, BBO)自身的机制,建立适用于BBO的多目标进化模型。在模型中,结合栖息地个体间的Pareto支配关系对栖息地适应度指数进行了重新定义;为了保持栖息地种群的分布性,提出一种新的基于动态距离矩阵的分布性保持机制;同时,根据多目标优化的特点,提出了新的自适应迁入迁出率确定方式,动态迁移策略及分段logistic混沌变异策略。通过对测试函数ZDT和DTLZ的仿真实验表明,与现有多种多目标优化算法相比,MOBBO在解集的收敛性和分布的均匀性上均有明显改善,能够有效且高效地进行复杂多目标优化问题的求解。     

Immigration, emigration and the ageing of the overseas-born population in the United Kingdom

This article uses data from the 1971 and 2001 Censuses, the 1999-2003 Labour Force Survey and the 1977 to 2002 International Passenger Survey to investigate the migration processes contributing to the age structure and ageing of the UK's overseas-born population. Overall almost half of recent decades' immigrants to the UK emigrate again within five years of arrival, but with large variation by overseas country of birth. Between half and two thirds of the immigrants born in the continental European Union, North America and Oceania emigrate again within five years, while 15 per cent of those born in the Indian subcontinent do so. Significant cumulative emigration more than five years after arrival is seen among earlier immigrants from the Indian subcontinent, the Caribbean Commonwealth and Europe. Large country-of-origin variations in the ratio of pension-age population to working-age population primarily reflect the country composition of immigration streams 30 or more years before.