FORECASTING AUTOMOBILE WARRANTY PERFORMANCE IN PRESENCE OF ‘MATURING DATA＇ PHENOMENA USING MULTILAYER PERCEPTRON NEURAL NETWORK

Automobile companies that spend billions of dollars annually towards warranty cost, give high priority to warranty reduction programs. Forecasting of automobile warranty performance plays an important role towards these efforts. The forecasting process involves prediction of not only the specific months-in-service (MIS) warranty performance at certain future time, but also at future MIS values. However, ‘maturing data‘ (also called warranty growth) phenomena that causes warranty performance at specific MIS values to change with time, makes such a forecasting task challenging. Although warranty forecasting methods such as log-log plots and dynamic linear models appear in literature, there is a need for applications addressing the well recognized issue of ‘maturing data‘. In this paper we use an artificial neural network for the forecasting of warranty performance in presence of ‘maturing data‘ phenomena. The network parameters are optimized by minimizing the training and testing errors using response surface methodology. This application shows the effectiveness of neural networks in the forecasting of automobile warranty performance in the presence of the ‘maturing data‘ phenomena.     

Peirce and Beer

This paper considers the philosophical background of Stafford Beer's Viable Systems Diagnosis (VSD) as profoundly influenced by Charles Peirce. In a general sense, our work discusses the VSD theory base in the development of a model for actionable theory in organizations. This paper examines VSD theory in the Beer trilogy ‘Brain of the Firm,’ ‘The Heart of the Enterprise’ and ‘Diagnosing the System’ and we propose that a sound set of VSD action principles can be derived from this trilogy. We contend that the philosophical background underpinning these principles is important. Using Beer’s ‘Decision and Control,’ we consider that philosophical background and link Operational Research and the interdisciplinary learning within Cybernetics to modern general systems theory. We explore Beer’s viewpoint on the Peirce depiction of four main methods of fixing belief; tenacity, authority, a priori and finally the scientific to assist in that expansion. We consider how knowledge of Beer’s perspective on making sense of the world is important in the linkage of VSD theory to the managerial problem arena. We relate the Peirce methods to previously reported problem solving exercises involving the VSD ideology, which we will develop individually at a later date. This paper reflects our desire to express the interpretation of VSD theory in a language that the well-informed manager may readily translate into the third step of testing theory in practice.     

Properties of storage functions and applications to nonlinear stochastic <Emphasis Type="Italic">H</Emphasis><Subscript>∞</Subscript> control

This paper discusses the properties of the storage functions for a class of nonlinear stochastic systems. Some necessary and sufficient conditions for a function to be a storage function are derived. As applications, the finite and infinite horizon nonlinear stochastic H _∞ controls for systems with state, control, and external disturbance dependent noise are investigated, which generalize the previous results.     

DENOISING AND HARMONIC DETECTION USING NONORTHOGONAL WAVELET PACKETS IN INDUSTRIAL APPLICATIONS

New industrial applications call for new methods and new ideas in signal analysis. Wavelet packets are new tools in industrial applications and they have just recently appeared in projects and patents. In training neural networks, for the sake of dimensionality and of ratio of time, compact information is needed. This paper deals with simultaneous noise suppression and signal compression of quasi-harmonic signals. A quasi-harmonic signal is a signal with one dominant harmonic and some more sub harmonics in superposition. Such signals often occur in rail vehicle systems, in which noisy signals are present. Typically, they are signals which come from rail overhead power lines and are generated by intermodulation phenomena and radio interferences. An important task is to monitor and recognize them. This paper proposes an algorithm to differentiate discrete signals from their noisy observations using a library of nonorthonormal bases. The algorithm combines the shrinkage technique and techniques in regression analysis using Shannon Entropy function and Cross Entropy function to select the best discernable bases. Cosine and sine wavelet bases in wavelet packets are used. The algorithm is totally general and can be used in many industrial applications. The effectiveness of the proposed method consists of using as few as possible samples of the measured signal and in the meantime highlighting the difference between the noise and the desired signal. The problem is a difficult one, but well posed. In fact, compression reduces the level of the measured noise and undesired signals but introduces the well known compression noise. The goal is to extract a coherent signal from the measured signal which will be “well represented” by suitable waveforms and a noisy signal or incoherent signal which cannot be “compressed well” by the waveforms. Recursive residual iterations with cosine and sine bases allow the extraction of elements of the required signal and the noise. The algorithm that has been developed is utilized as a filter to extract features for training neural networks. It is currently integrated in the inferential modelling platform of the unit for Advanced Control and Simulation Solutions within ABB’s industry division. An application using real measured data from an electrical railway line is presented to illustrate and analyze the effectiveness of the proposed method. Another industrial application in fault detection, in which coherent and incoherent signals are univocally visible, is also shown.     

Feminist Systems Theory: Learning by Praxis

Feminist Systems Theory (FST) is an emerging theory grounded in cultural ecofeminism and critical systems theory. FST’s contribution is in a set of principles that contain implications for community development and social research. FST brings to the fore the importance of valuing and considering the voices of people at the margins of social research and community development projects and is an effort towards a new ontology and language of person and nature to adequately address environmental marginalization. The ‘systems’ theory contribution to FST enriches our repertoires of methods and tools with an emphasis on systems thinking characterised by the use of boundary analysis. FST is ideally situated to enhance systemic intervention practice, an application of action research and participatory research practices. This paper will examine ‘process philosophy’ necessary to understand the nature of boundary analysis and the implications for FST and praxis with relevant examples drawn from case studies of current applications of FST in action research settings; (1) economic analysis and transition pathways; (2) policy analysis of the Close the Gap strategy for Indigenous equality and equity in Australia; (3) a community food distribution system; and, (4) a community health and diabetes prevention program.     

Multi-Modality Medical Image Fusion Based on Wavelet Analysis and Quality Evaluation

1. INTRODUCTIONThere are several kinds of medical imaging modalities now. The plan and evaluation of medical diagnosis andtreatmellt often need the support from images of different modalities. Multi-modality medical image fusionis to create a new combined image from multi-modality images according to some fusion principles, the newimage is supposed to have better visual effect to facilitate further processing, analysis, recognition and diagnosis.A typical application is the fusion between…     

人类社会发展的自然段

按照苏联哲学家编写的历史唯物论教科书,人类社会按五种社会形态单线发展。这种分类在逻辑上是混乱的。现在,我们应当按照马克思在《资本论》第一卷序言中的成熟观点社会经济形态的发展是一种自然历史过程,把生产方式作为单一的分类标准来重新划分。     

CONVOLUTION THEOREM AND ASYMPTOTIC EFFICIENCY IN TWO SIDE TRUNCATED DISTRIBUTION FAMILY—THE NORMAL CASE

In the distribution family with common support and the one side truncated distribution family, Bickle, I. A. Ibragimov and R. Z. Hasminskii proved two important convolution theorems. As to the two-side truncated case, we also proved a convolution theorem, which plays an extraordinary role in the efficiency theory. In this paper, we will study another kind of two-side truncated distribution family, and prove a convolution result with normal form. On the basis of this convolution result, a new kind of efficiency concept is given; meanwhile, we will show that MLE is an efficient estimate in this distribution family.     

Holism and Understanding Sustainability

In work undertaken in both Malta and Lebanon we have been reflecting on the current means by which the international community apply concepts intended to achieve what is called “sustainable development.” In an attempt to make means and ends conform to each other we have developed a holistic approach to what is essentially a timeless need for understanding, systemic planning, and compassionate stewardship. This essay indicates that we may be closer to holistic means with which to realize these goals than we know. It describes how some planning and analysis methods have their origins in ancient traditions. However, the milieu in which sustainability occurs is often unsympathetic to and sometimes incompatible with the ideals of holism. The essay assesses the current understanding of sustainability and points to the need for a wider and more inclusive base to contemporary sustainability as practiced in the community.     

STUDIES ON HORIZONTAL COMPETITION AMONG HOMOGENOUS RETAILERS THROUGH AGENT-BASED SIMULATION

1. Introduction A supply chain is a network composed osuppliers, manufacturers, retailers, etc., whichcooperate to offer a kind of goods or servicesThese supply chain members cooperate andcompete with each other to maximize theiown profits. For example,…     

Evaluating Climate Change Discourse in New Zealand

Issues of social responsibility, ethics and interdependence, as well as the pragmatic imperative to better understand complexity, require that diverse viewpoints be invited and given credence by policy makers seeking imaginative ‘solutions’ to climate change. This paper explores the statutory introduction of biofuels into New Zealand by way of the discourses that preceded this decision. This inquiry used Critically Systemic Thinking and ‘Mode 2’ Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) to engage with multiple stakeholders to the Biofuels policy to discover how the discourse was conducted. It concludes that the process of policymaking was framed in technical rationalist terms thereby favouring certain ‘worldviews’ over others. Accordingly, a model of ‘ideal’ discourse and decision making for governing the conduct of future public discourse is presented. This inquiry assists in re-establishing SSM as a rigorous and reflexive approach to analysing a complex issue and for enhancing collective learning into its content and process.     

Several cryptographic applications of Σ-protocol

Σ-protocol has been proved to be a very powerful cryptographic tool and widely used in numerous important cryptographic applications. In this paper, the authors make use of Σ-protocol as a main tool to resolve the following difficult problems 1–3 and to construct three efficient cryptographic protocols 4–6:

The Continuous Improvement Grid: An Empirical Investigation into the Effectiveness of a Systems,and Action Research,Based Continuous Improvement Intervention,for ‘New’ Organisation Development

This paper is a rare example of a large scale (n = 1310), positivist, evaluation of an action research program. It documents how the Royal Navy used the principles of scholarly consulting and pragmatic science to develop, apply and review a systems based tool, and associated ‘new organisation development’ intervention, to help staff explore and share perceptions of working practices, in order to expand their awareness of their current work situation and so uncover opportunities for improvement. Survey results suggest that the majority of individuals found the interventions valuable and participants in the events enjoyed significantly higher levels of understanding of the organisation, and greater collective, and individual, benefit from it. Findings also provide empirical evidence of the importance of involvement to making successful change, especially when dealing with the change averse. Overall the experience, of which the action research based study and associated positivist survey were part, reinforce the importance of what is described as ‘normative realigning pedagogy’—helping people change by facilitating their generation of new forms of understanding.     

“EII META—MODEL” ON INTEGRATION FRAMEWORK FOR VIABLE ENTERPRISE SYSTEMS——CITY PLANNING METAPHOR BASED ON STRUCTURAL SIMILARITY

Enterprise systems must have the structure to adapt the change of business environment.When rebuilding enterprise system to meet the extended operational boundaries,the concept of IT city planning is applicable and effective.The aim of this paper is to describe the architectural approach from the integrated imformation infrastructure(In3) standpoint and to propose for applying the “City Planning” concept for rebuilding “inter-application spaghetti” enterprise systems.This is mainly because the portion of infrastructure has increased with the change of information systems from centralized systems to distributed and open systems.As enterprise systems have involved heterogeneity or architectural black box in them,it may be required the integration framework (meta-architecture)as a discipline based on heterogeneity that can provide comprehensive view of the enterprise systems.This paper proposes “EII Meta-model” as the integration framework that can optimize the overall enterprise systems from the IT city planning point of view.EII Meta-model consists of “Integrated Information Infrastructure Map(In3-Map)”,“Service&#183;Framework” and “IT Scenario”.It would be applicable and effective for the viable enterprise,because it has the mechanism to adapt the change.Finally,we illustrate a case of information system in an online securities company and demonstrate spplicability and effectiveness of EII Meta-model to meet their business goals.     

ROLE OF α-PSEUDO-UNIVEX FUNCTIONS IN VECTOR VARIATIONAL-LIKE INEQUALITY PROBLEMS

In this paper, we introduce a new class of generalized convex function, namely, a-pseudounivex function, by combining the concepts of pseudo-univex and α-invex functions. Further, we establish some relationships between vector variational-like inequality problems and vector optimization problems under the assumptions of α-pseudo-univex functions. Results obtained in this paper present a refinement and improvement of previously known results.     

SUPPORTING SALESPERSONS＇ CRM EFFORTS THROUGH LOCATION-BASED MOBILE SUPPORT SYSTEMS

This paper aims at assessing how location-based mobile support systems can support salespersons‘ CRM efforts when they are operating within a highly mobile work environment. After briefly discussing the state-of-the-art issues associated with mobile location technologies, the paper conceptualizes key dimensions for location-based mobile support systems. The paper then discusses the dual role of salespersons in CRM. A fourth section suggests a categorization of salespersons‘ CRM tasks based on both properties of location-based mobile support and the areas of salespersons‘ CRM-related tasks that may be affected by mobile location technologies. Finally, the paper suggests potential mobile location services and applications that can help salespersons perform effectively their everyday CRM tasks and link such applications to the determinant of salespersons““ performance. The paper concludes with a discussion of some critical issues and suggests areas for further research.     

MULTILATERAL COMPARISON ON CHINESE MANUFACTURING＇S INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS

This paper analyses Chinese manufacturing performance from a multilateral perspective in 1980–2004. The PPPs, relative price levels, labor productivity and ULCs in multilateral comparison are used to explore Chinese manufacturing competitiveness. The PPPs are based on the benchmark year 1997. These results are compared to the previous estimates based on the 1987 benchmark. The findings are as follows: the PPPs derived by the different approaches in the base year 1997 in Chinese manufacturing are approximately 3.7 yuan/international $. Since the middle 1980s, China’s relative price level has been the lowest among all five countries and declined during the period of time. Its ULC has also been declining with some fluctuation. In the 1980s, there was “no catch-up rapid growth” in its labor productivity. However, after 1992, a beginning has been made with catch up distinctly, though from a very low level. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 70173029, 70571004 and 70531010. Ruoen Ren Professor of School of Economics & Management in Beihang University received Ph.D. in Economics in Renmin University of China in 1987. As one who enjoys the Government Special Allowance, he specializes in the study of international competitiveness, macroeconomics analysis, input-output table research, and credit risk management etc. His primary academic achievements are as follows: ICP in China, ICOP in China, KLEMS in China, Credit risk management in China commercial bank. In addition to his teaching and research at school, he is a chief economist in China Development Bank, a member in Science & Technical committee in Ministry of Education, and an executive director in China’s Input-output Association, etc. Haitao Zheng Doctorial candidate of School of Economics & Management in Beihang University, majors in the study on international competitiveness and insurance actuary. Meanwhile, he is an Associate of Society of Chinese Actuary.     

Satisfaction Experiences with Tenancy Mediation: Why is it so Successful?

Tenancy mediation is a form of systematic practice that has become firmly established in a number of different legislatures. Yet there has been little research on what makes this an effective or satisfactory procedure. This paper presents a study based on quantitative and qualitative research that looks at tenancy mediation in New Zealand. Drawing on the method of appreciative inquiry, it finds that a consistently high rate of participant satisfaction with voluntary mediation comes from three main components of mediation practice. These are to do with three-way interactive mediator assistance, recognition and reframing, and ‘trust in practice.’ Together, these often generate an experience of transformative mediation which underpins the satisfaction that disputants report.