热带海温对纵向岭谷区5月降水年际变化的影响研究

 利用主成分分析和典型相关分析方法,研究了纵向岭谷区76个站点5月份降水场与其前期(12~4月)和同期(5月份)热带海温距平场之间的相关关系.其中,资料选用了1961~2001年共41 a的数据资料.研究结果表明,纵向岭谷区5月降水与热带海温距平场以同期相关为最好,而前期热带海温距平场除12月、3月和4月外,其它月份即1月、2月均有很好的相关.通过对热带海温距平场及降水场典型特征向量的分布作分析,太平洋暖池区热带海温与纵向岭谷区5月降水有正相关关系,赤道东太平洋海温与纵向岭谷区5月降水有负相关关系.当太平洋Walker环流增强时,纵向岭谷区5月降水增多;当Walker环流减弱时,纵向岭谷区5月降水减少.     

Observations of clear air turbulence by high power radar

Clear air turbulence is a hazard to aviation and is thought to have important effects on atmospheric dynamics. This article describes the structure and evolution of clear air turbulence at high altitudes as revealed by a high power radar and vertical soundings of wind and temperature.     

Host specificity of Lepidoptera in tropical and temperate forests

For numerous taxa, species richness is much higher in tropical than in temperate zone habitats. A major challenge in community ecology and evolutionary biogeography is to reveal the mechanisms underlying these differences. For herbivorous insects, one such mechanism leading to an increased number of species in a given locale could be increased ecological specialization, resulting in a greater proportion of insect species occupying narrow niches within a community. We tested this hypothesis by comparing host specialization in larval Lepidoptera (moths and butterflies) at eight different New World forest sites ranging in latitude from 15 degrees S to 55 degrees N. Here we show that larval diets of tropical Lepidoptera are more specialized than those of their temperate forest counterparts: tropical species on average feed on fewer plant species, genera and families than do temperate caterpillars. This result holds true whether calculated per lepidopteran family or for a caterpillar assemblage as a whole. As a result, there is greater turnover in caterpillar species composition (greater beta diversity) between tree species in tropical faunas than in temperate faunas. We suggest that greater specialization in tropical faunas is the result of differences in trophic interactions; for example, there are more distinct plant secondary chemical profiles from one tree species to the next in tropical forests than in temperate forests as well as more diverse and chronic pressures from natural enemy communities.     

降雨诱发浅伏采空区上方地表塌陷机理

针对浅埋煤层采出后易发生地表塌陷地质灾害现象,分析了浅埋煤层采空区上覆岩层破坏特征及断裂岩层结构的稳定性,进行了不同含水量岩石力学特性的实验研究.结果表明:岩体试件在天然状态与饱水状态时的剪切力-剪切位移曲线变化趋势是基本一致的,但试件在饱水状态时的抗剪强度与天然状态相比大幅下降;不同含水量试件在单轴压缩条件下的应力-应变曲线随着含水量的增加,曲线的位置降低,峰值强度相应降低.     

Low beta diversity of herbivorous insects in tropical forests

Recent advances in understanding insect communities in tropical forests have contributed little to our knowledge of large-scale patterns of insect diversity, because incomplete taxonomic knowledge of many tropical species hinders the mapping of their distribution records. This impedes an understanding of global biodiversity patterns and explains why tropical insects are under-represented in conservation biology. Our study of approximately 500 species from three herbivorous guilds feeding on foliage (caterpillars, Lepidoptera), wood (ambrosia beetles, Coleoptera) and fruit (fruitflies, Diptera) found a low rate of change in species composition (beta diversity) across 75,000 square kilometres of contiguous lowland rainforest in Papua New Guinea, as most species were widely distributed. For caterpillars feeding on large plant genera, most species fed on multiple host species, so that even locally restricted plant species did not support endemic herbivores. Large plant genera represented a continuously distributed resource easily colonized by moths and butterflies over hundreds of kilometres. Low beta diversity was also documented in groups with differing host specificity (fruitflies and ambrosia beetles), suggesting that dispersal limitation does not have a substantial role in shaping the distribution of insect species in New Guinea lowland rainforests. Similar patterns of low beta diversity can be expected in other tropical lowland rainforests, as they are typically situated in the extensive low basins of major tropical rivers similar to the Sepik-Ramu region of New Guinea studied here.     

西双版纳热带森林中原生林与次生林内鸟类对不同颜色果实的选择

果实颜色是影响食果动物取食行为的重要因素之一,同时也影响植物的种子传播.试验地点位于西双版纳野象谷自然保护区和补蚌自然保护区,在每个自然保护区内选取原生林和次生林各1处,使用红、橙、黑、蓝4种颜色的人工果实来研究鸟类对不同颜色果实的选择.试验发现,不同颜色果实在原生林中被取食的程度有显著差异,而在次生林中不存在显著差异.与以往研究结果不同,鸟类对蓝色和橙色果实的选择较为突出,而黑色果实在2处生境中的被取食均较少.     

Irregular tropical glacier retreat over the Holocene epoch driven by progressive warming

The causes and timing of tropical glacier fluctuations during the Holocene epoch (10,000 years ago to present) are poorly understood. Yet constraining their sensitivity to changes in climate is important, as these glaciers are both sensitive indicators of climate change and serve as water reservoirs for highland regions. Studies have so far documented extra-tropical glacier fluctuations, but in the tropics, glacier-climate relationships are insufficiently understood. Here we present a (10)Be chronology for the past 11,000?years (11?kyr), using 57 moraines from the Bolivian Telata glacier (in the Cordillera Real mountain range). This chronology indicates that Telata glacier retreated irregularly. A rapid and strong melting from the maximum extent occurred from 10.8?±?0.9 to 8.5?±?0.4?kyr ago, followed by a slower retreat until the Little Ice Age, about 200 years ago. A dramatic increase in the rate of retreat occurred over the twentieth century. A glacier-climate model indicates that, relative to modern climate, annual mean temperature for the Telata glacier region was -3.3?±?0.8 °C cooler at 11?kyr ago and remained -2.1?±?0.8 °C cooler until the end of the Little Ice Age. We suggest that long-term warming of the eastern tropical Pacific and increased atmospheric temperature in response to enhanced austral summer insolation were the main drivers for the long-term Holocene retreat of glaciers in the southern tropics.     

华北地区热带气旋降水量的气候诊断

利用1950～2002年热带气旋降水量资料,对华北地区由热带气旋引起的降水进行了分析．结果表明,华北地区热带气旋降水量的空间分布很不均匀,平均山东半岛东部最大,向西具有减少的趋势,这种趋势与热带气旋降水频数相一致,地形的影响使降水量的空间分布复杂化．对于热带气旋过程降水量的大小,地形的影响更为重要,从河北东部经西部到河南南部沿着燕山南麓和太行山东麓分布着大的过程降水中心,此外,受热带气旋影响的最西站点随年代向东偏移．热带气旋降水量季节变化表现为8月最大,10月最小;年际变化明显,具有显著的2～3年振荡周期：年代际变化表现为20世纪50,60和70年代相差很小,80年代后具有明显减少的趋势．各区域热带气旋降水量的年际和年代际变化显示,华北西部的山西和北部的内蒙减少的趋势最强．     

风绕塔体流动的数值模拟

利用有限体积法对Re=20和Re＝136时流体绕塔的流动状况进行数值模拟，结果表明采用三阶精度的QUICK离散动量方程，并用瞬态PISO算法坟解压力－速率耦合的中以很好地模拟塔体背风侧的旋涡生成及脱落过程，计算结果和理论分析及经典实验结果比较一致，由此可以更好地理解卡曼涡街的结构。     

江汉平原降水变化趋势的气候分析

利用江汉平原1958年～2004年各气象站点降水量资料,对近47年来江汉平原降水量变化趋势进行了分析.结果表明:江汉平原绝大部分地区年降水量变化表现为明显的增加趋势,降水倾向率为5.7～78.9 mm/10a.江汉平原平均年降水量则呈明显的增加趋势,年降水量以39.9mm/10a的速率增加,尤其是20世纪90年代增幅较大.平原夏、冬季降水均呈增加趋势,春、秋季降水则呈减少趋势.另外,60年代和70年代旱年较多,而80年代以来涝年较多,且有增加的趋势.     

Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years

Theory and modelling predict that hurricane intensity should increase with increasing global mean temperatures, but work on the detection of trends in hurricane activity has focused mostly on their frequency and shows no trend. Here I define an index of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of power, integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone, and show that this index has increased markedly since the mid-1970s. This trend is due to both longer storm lifetimes and greater storm intensities. I find that the record of net hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with tropical sea surface temperature, reflecting well-documented climate signals, including multi-decadal oscillations in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and global warming. My results suggest that future warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive potential, and--taking into account an increasing coastal population--a substantial increase in hurricane-related losses in the twenty-first century.     

登陆中国热带气旋路径的年代际变化

利用1951~2002年热带气旋年鉴资料,将52年分成ID1(1951~1979年)和ID2(1980~2002年)两个年代际时段,研究西北太平洋7~9月登陆中国热带气旋路径的年代际变化.结果表明,登陆中国热带气旋存在明显的月际、年际和年代际变化,从ID1到ID2,热带气旋路径频数在东海和菲律宾海明显下降,而在南海略微有所上升.东海和南海热带气旋路径频数的时间序列进一步揭示了20世纪70年代末期热带气旋路径频数位置的变化.     

闽北不同类型毛竹林冠层降水再分配特征

以中亚热带杉木纯林(Ⅰ)和常绿阔叶林(Ⅴ)为对照,对闽北地区竹杉混交林(Ⅱ)、毛竹纯林(Ⅲ)、竹阔混交林(Ⅳ)冠层降水再分配特征进行了研究。结果表明：各林分穿透雨率为462 %～862 %,平均穿透雨率排序由大到小为Ⅰ(770 %)、Ⅲ(750 %)、Ⅳ(737 %)、Ⅱ(703 %)、Ⅴ(677 %);各林分树干茎流量排序由大到小为Ⅳ(692 mm)、Ⅲ(520 mm)、Ⅱ(373 mm)、Ⅴ(230 mm)、Ⅰ(176 mm),树干茎流量随雨量增大而增大,不同类型毛竹林增加的比例大于杉木纯林和阔叶林;各林分产生树干茎流的最小响应雨量排序由小到大为Ⅱ(64 mm)、Ⅳ(69 mm)、Ⅲ(75 mm)、Ⅴ(89 mm)、Ⅰ(104 mm);各林分林冠截留率为141 %～535 %,平均林冠截留率排序由大到小为Ⅴ(313 %)、Ⅱ(282 %)、Ⅳ(235 %)、Ⅲ(229 %)、Ⅰ(223 %)。5种林分穿透雨、树干茎流和林冠截留均与林外降雨量显著正相关（p＜001）,其中穿透雨量和降雨量的关系用模型Y=a+bX拟合较好;林冠截留量和降雨量之间的关系用三次曲线（Y=β0+β1X+β2X2+β3X3）方程较拟合最好。综合分析表明,毛竹纯林对小到中雨的截留能力较好,竹杉、竹阔混交林对大到暴雨的截留能力较好。     

西北太平洋热带气旋气候特征及其变化研究的若干进展

为了对我国气象工作者全面了解和参与热带气旋的研究有所帮助,在大量阅读和调研的基础上,介绍了近20年西北太平洋热带气旋活动在季节、年际和年代际尺度上研究的若干主要成果.重点阐述了EN-SO与热带气旋的关系,温室效应热带气旋的数值模拟和观测研究等的最新动态.     

北大西洋热带气旋路径预报的难度变化分析

为了提高热带气旋的短期气候预测水平,选取1851-1870年北大西洋热带气旋样本,按照热带气旋在不同海域的路径差异分成5个区域,利用基于偏最小二乘回归的气候持续法,建立预报未来气旋中心位置的模型,对1871-2010年每个区域的气旋进行路径预报。根据预报结果与实际数据的误差分析每个区域的预报难度,利用小波分析法找出预报难度变化的周期性规律。结果表明,北大西洋海域热带气旋路径预报的难度呈现从南向北以及从东向西递增规律,靠近大陆区域的部分热带气旋路径发生转折,这些区域的预报难度有所增大。中高纬度区域是气旋路径有旺盛期向衰亡期转折的区域,影响气旋路径的因素较多,该区域气旋路径预报的难度更大。     

热带季风气团的活动对云南雨季的影响

 主要讨论物理量假相当位温θ_se的变化与云南雨季开始的关系.研究表明θ_se能很好地描述热带季风气团的活动属性,随着季节由春到夏的转换,热带季风气团移动的路径是向北向西的,孟加拉湾地区向北的水汽输送强弱对云南地区的夏季风建立早迟有重要的影响.并且利用θ_se配合云南地区的降水定义了云南地区季风建立的气候标准和年际标准.提出了一个值得讨论的问题:能否利用对流层上层θ_se的变化来预测云南雨季建立.     

热带气旋活动对我国大陆降水影响的统计分析

利用1950—2004年热带气旋降水和热带气旋强度资料分析我国大陆热带气旋降水特征的变化及其与热带气旋活动的关系.结果表明:自1950年以来,我国大陆热带气旋降水年总量具有显著的年际变化和年代际变化特点,20世纪50年代、60年代后期到70年代初期和90年代中期以来是降水的偏少期;60年代前期以及70年代中期到90年代初期为降水的偏多期.自20世纪50年代以来,平均过程降水面积具有线性减小的趋势,而平均过程降水强度具有线性上升的趋势,并自90年代中期以后,其年际振荡的幅度随时间而增强.我国大陆降水频数与西北太平洋热带风暴以上的热带气旋频数具有显著的正相关关系,而过程降水强度与西北太平洋热带气旋最大强度,特别是登陆热带气旋强度关系密切,它们表现出非线性关系.     

Observations of thermospheric vector wind over Yellow River Station during auroral substorm events

Strong disturbances associated with auroral substorms originate from the ionosphere–magnetosphere owing to the effects of the solar wind, and the wind field in the ionosphere is related to such substorm activity. Here, we describe the analysis of four auroral substorm events, for which we employed an all-sky Fabry–Perot interferometer to observe the two-dimensional horizontal wind field and combined the results with data from an all-sky charge-coupled device imager, a fluxgate magnetometer installed at Yellow River Station, and the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network. The results demonstrate that, during auroral substorms, the vector wind field is related closely to variations in the ion drift and geomagnetic field. Moreover, we observed a changing wind field of approximately 300 m/s in response to variations in the electric and magnetic fields (likely caused by ion drag) and a disturbance of about 200 m/s that we attribute to the interaction of Joule heating and ion drag.     

Observations of thermospheric vector wind over Yellow River Station during auroral substorm events

Strong disturbances associated with auroral substorms originate from the ionosphere-magnetosphere owing to the effects of the solar wind, and the wind field in the ionosphere is related to such substorm activity. Here, we describe the analysis of four auroral substorm events, for which we employed an all-sky Fabry-Perot interferometer to observe the two-dimensional horizontal wind field and combined the results with data from an all-sky charge-coupled device imager, a fluxgate magnetometer installed at Yellow River Station, and the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network. The results demonstrate that, during auroral substorms, the vector wind field is related closely to variations in the ion drift and geomagnetic field. Moreover, we observed a changing wind field of approximately 300 rn/s in response to variations in the electric and magnetic fields （likely caused by ion drag） and a disturbance of about 200 m/s that we attribute to the interaction of Joule heating and ion drag.