On the epistemological foundations of the law of the lever

In this paper I challenge Paolo Palmieri’s reading of the Mach—Vailati debate on Archimedes’ proof of the law of the lever. I argue that the actual import of the debate concerns the possible epistemic (as opposed to merely pragmatic) role of mathematical arguments in empirical physics, and that construed in this light Vailati carries the upper hand. This claim is defended by showing that Archimedes’ proof of the law of the lever is not a way of appealing to a non-empirical source of information, but a way of explicating the mathematical structure that can represent the empirical information at our disposal in the most general way.     

Melatonin decreases the amplitude of the b-wave of the human electroretinogram

In a double-blind placebo crossover study of 13 healthy volunteers, the pineal hormone melatonin (10 mg) was given at 4 pm, and the electroretinogram measured under conditions of dark and light adaptation. A significant diminution of b-wave amplitude was found under both photopic (=5.4 V, p<0.05) and scotopic conditions (=7.4 V, p<0.01). These data indicate that melatonin may transduce the dark signal at the level of the retina as well as the pineal. Acute administration of melatonin decreases sensitivity to light.     

Sydney Chapman on the Layering of the Atmosphere: Conceptual Unity and the Modelling of the Ionosphere

Sydney Chapman is unanimously considered to have played a founding role in modern geomagnetism and to have opened up new lines of research in geophysics generally. Nevertheless, Chapman's conviction regarding the synthesis of the explanatory mechanisms of the atmosphere has gone practically unnoticed in the historiography of geophysics. This paper examines Chapman's contribution to ionospheric physics. It aims to understand Chapman's theory of ionospheric layer formation, and particularly its link to his theory of ozone formation. It deals first with the traits which characterized Chapman's personality, as a way of explaining—and even perhaps justifying— his quest for the integration and synthesis of geophysical knowledge. It then analyses Chapman's model of ionospheric layers and his suggestions regarding its use as an operational tool (without ontological connotations), before continuing with his account of the formation of the ozone layer, which seemed to constitute the missing link for understanding ionosphere layer formation. The paper concludes with Chapman's attempt to reconcile geomagnetic and radio evidence.     

Computing the variance of the forecast error for the holt-winters seasonal models

This paper presents expressions for the variance of the forecast error for arbitrary lead times for both the additive and multiplicative Holt-Winters seasonal forecasting models. It is shown that even when the smoothing constants are chosen to have values between zero and one, when the period is greater than four, the variance may not be finite for some values of the smoothing constants. In addition, the regions where the variance becomes infinite are almost the same for both models. These results are of importance for practitioners, who may choose values for the smoothing constants arbitrarily, or by searching on the unit cube for values which minimize the sum of the squared errors when fitting the model to a data set. It is also shown that the variance of the forecast error for the multiplicative model is nonstationary and periodic.     

On Joseph Fourier: the man,the mathematician and the physicist

In 1793 Lord Macartney arrived in China as ambassador of King George III. The aims of his embassy were largely directed towards the enlargement of British trade with the far east, and especially with China. The embassy also had a diplomatic and cultural mission, to impress the Chinese with British achievements. They were to do so largely by distributing presents of British manufactures, chief among them being scientific instruments. The Chinese refused the embassy's requests, and clearly regarded the gifts of instruments as merely ingenious toys. This paper describes the role of instruments in the embassy, and contrasts British expectations with Chinese attitudes to scientific instruments. The embassy's failure is shown to reveal fundamental differences in British and Chinese eighteenth-century responses to science, and has wide cultural implications.     

In the tracks of the historicist movement: Re-assessing the Carnap-Kuhn connection

Thirty years after the publication of Thomas Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, sharp disagreement persists concerning the implications of Kuhn's ‘historicist’ challenge to empiricism. I discuss the historicist movement over the past thirty years, and the extent to which the discourse between two branches of the historical school has been influenced by tacit assumptions shared with Rudolf Carnap's empiricism. I begin with an examination of Carnap's logicism — his logic of science — and his 1960 correspondence with Kuhn. I focus on problems in the analysis applied to the unit of meta-scientific study or appraisal, arguing for a re-assessment of historicist treatment of the internal/external distinction and historiographic meta-methodology. The critique of objectivism and relativism that eventuates from this re-assessment is a double-edged blade, undercutting both objectivist and relativist treatments of cognitive evaluation and scientific change. I use it to cut across an otherwise diverse group of historicist-influenced writers, including Imre Lakatos, Larry Laudan, H.M. Collins and Stephen Stich.     

Forecasting the Treasury's balance at the Fed

As part of the Fed's daily operating procedure, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Board of Governors and the Treasury make a forecast of that day's Treasury balance at the Fed. These forecasts are an integral part of the Fed's daily operating procedure. Errors in these forecasts can generate variation in reserve supply and, consequently, the federal funds rate. This paper evaluates the accuracy of these forecasts. The evidence suggests that each agency's forecast contributes to the optimal, i.e., minimum variance, forecast and that the Trading Desk of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York incorporates information from all three of the agency forecasts in conducting daily open market operations. Moreover, these forecasts encompass the forecast of an economic model. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Whewell on the classification of the sciences

Despite deserving a place amongst the historic milestones of the philosophy of disciplines, the system of the sciences put forward by Whewell has so far received little interest. Yet his ideas had a significant impact on the researches subsequently carried out on the topic, exerting in particular a decisive influence on Peirce and Spencer. The present paper aims to display the innovatory nature of the philosophical foundations of the Whewellian classification of the sciences. In this respect, we will argue that the most striking feature of his disciplinary system lies in a heuristic categorization of the sciences according to their “methods of discovery”. This represents a double departure from both the Aristotelian and the Baconian disciplinary paradigms, which are instead underpinned by ontological and epistemological criteria, respectively. Next, we will explore the pivotal role of Whewell's classification of the sciences for his overall project of a philosophy of scientific discovery.     

Modelling the daily banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the European Central Bank

The main focus of this paper is to model the daily series of banknotes in circulation. The series of banknotes in circulation displays very marked seasonal patterns. To the best of our knowledge the empirical performance of two competing approaches to model seasonality in daily time series, namely the ARIMA‐based approach and the Structural Time Series approach, has never been put to the test. The application presented in this paper provides valid intuition on the merits of each approach. The forecasting performance of the models is also assessed in the context of their impact on the liquidity management of the Eurosystem. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

西部大开发过程中存在的若干问题及其对策研究

实施西部大开发战略，加快西部发展，逐步缩小各地区之间的发展差距，实现区域经济协调发展，最终达到各地区经济普遍繁荣和全体人民共同富裕，既是社会主义本质特征要求，亦是国民经济持续协调发展的内在需要。近年来，虽然西部大开发已经取得了举世瞩目的成就，但仍然存在着许多问题。本文针对存在的若干问题进行了深入的揭露与研讨，同时提出了若干有益的对策建议。     

Three challenges to the complementarity of the logic and the pragmatics of science

The bipartite metatheory thesis attributes to Rudolf Carnap, Philipp Frank and Otto Neurath a conception of the nature of post-metaphysical philosophy of science that sees the purely formal-logical analyses of the logic of science as complemented by empirical inquiries into the psychology, sociology and history of science. Three challenges to this thesis are considered in this paper: that Carnap did not share this conception of the nature of philosophy of science even on a programmatic level, that Carnap's detailed analysis of the language of science is incompatible with one developed by Neurath for the pursuit of empirical studies of science, and, finally, that Neurath himself was confused about the programme of which the bipartite metatheory thesis makes him a representative. I argue that all three challenges can be met and refuted.     

Neurosecretory cells of the globuli I and the protocephalic neurosecretory pathway of the myriapods, diplodods. Preliminary observations on the Polydesmida, Platyrrhacidae, the Nematophora Lysiopetalidae, the Spirostreptida and the Spirobolida]

The Diplopods studied by the author and more particularly Platyrrhacidae, Lysiopetalidae, Spirostreptida and Spirobolida, show neurosecretory cells near the globuli I. The whole of his observations induces the author to admit a structural plan common to all the Diplopods: neurosecretory cells of globuli I--(NOG) nerve--neurohemal organ (Gabe's organ). Moreover he makes an attempt to compare his observations with those concerning another group of Myriapods: the Chilopods.     

世界主要海洋国家海洋发展战略分析

对美国、英国、加拿大、日本、俄罗斯以及中国周边海洋国家的海洋发展战略进行了不同程度的分析。美、英、加等海洋国家从海洋科技发展入手,实施了中长期海洋行动计划,推动海洋高科技发展;日本强调海洋立法、重视海洋技术的提升;俄罗斯、中国周边国家则注重海洋军事的发展,海洋军事的发展依赖并带动海洋科技的发展。北极海域的争夺成为环北极国家新一轮海洋发展战略的重点。     

The possible influence of the components of the soil and the lithosphere on the development and growth of neoplasms

Summary The author reviews the background of the soil-cancer relationship. The study then goes into geocarcinogenic diseases in relation to soil composition, looking first at general factors: soil concentrations of selenium, caesiumrubidium-potassium, trace elements; natural radioactivity risks; cancer risks in connection with recycled waste water. In its final part, the study examines geocarcinogenic diseases linked with soil composition covering gastric cancer, cancer of the esophagus, urinary, breast, and bronchial cancer, pleural mesotheliomae and bone cancer.     

The possible influence of the components of the soil and the lithosphere on the development and growth of neoplasms

The author reviews the background of the soil-cancer relationship. The study then goes into geocarcinogenic diseases in relation to soil composition, looking first at general factors: soil concentrations of selenium, caesium-rubidium-potassium, trace elements; natural radioactivity risks; cancer risks in connection with recycled waste water. In its final part, the study examines geocarcinogenic diseases linked with soil composition covering gastric cancer, cancer of the esophagus, urinary, breast, and bronchial cancer, pleural mesotheliomae and bone cancer.     

New data on the precise location of the lacrimo-muconasal nucleus of the rat

Summary Three methods (axonal degeneration, retrograde labelling with HRP and Golgi's silver impregnation) were used in the identification of a group of cells located in the ventrolateral part of the reticular formation of the pons, which are postulated to form the lacrimo-muconasal nucleus of the rat.     

Longitudinal continuity of the subrhabdomeric cisternae in the photoreceptors of the compound eye of the drone, Apis mellifera

It is shown that the subrhabdomeric cisternae of the honey bee drone photoreceptor cell constitute a single structure with a continuous lumen, that extends over at least 15 micron and perhaps the whole length of the cell. In this case, the structure of the cisternae might subserve the propagation of light adaptation along the cell.     

Studies on the modulation of the desensitization of the pituitary gland by luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone in the ovariectomized rat

In ovariectomized rats the desensitization of the LH cells in vivo, which develops during constant rate infusion of LHRH, 1) does not depend on a concomitant depletion of the pituitary LH stores, 2) proceeds normally when the hypothalamo-pituitary connection has been severed and 3) is a process in which LH itself is not involved.     

Studies on the modulation of the desensitization of the pituitary gland by luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone in the ovariectomized rat

Summary In ovariectomized rats the desensitization of the LH cells in vivo, which develops during constant rate infusion of LHRH, 1) does not depend on a concomitant depletion of the pituitary LH stores, 2) proceeds normally when the hypothalamo-pituitary connection has been severed and 3) is a process in which LH itself is not involved.     

The American Philosophical Society and the rise of astronomy in the United States in the middle of the nineteenth century

Early geological investigations in the St David's area (Pembrokeshire) are described, particularly the work of Murchison. In a reconnaissance survey in 1835, he regarded a ridge of rocks at St David's as intrusive in unfossiliferous Cambrian; and the early Survey mapping (chiefly the work of Aveline and Ramsay) was conducted on that assumption, leading to the publication of maps in 1845 and 1857. The latter represented the margins of the St David's ridge as ‘Altered Cambrian’. So the supposedly intrusive ‘syenite’ was regarded as younger, and there was no Precambrian. These views were challenged by a local doctor, Henry Hicks, who developed an idea of the ex-Survey palaeontologist John Salter that the rocks of the ridge were stratified and had formed a Precambrian island, round which Cambrian sediments (now confirmed by fossil discoveries) had been deposited. Hicks subsequently proposed subdivision of his Precambrian into ‘Dimetian’, ‘Pebidian’, and (later) ‘Arvonian’, and he attempted correlations with rocks in Shropshire, North Wales, and even North America, seeking to develop the neo-Neptunist ideas of Sterry Hunt. The challenge to the Survey's work was countered in the 1880s by the Director General, Geikie, who showed that Hicks's idea of stratification in the Dimetian was mistaken. A heated controversy developed, several amateur geologists, supported by a group of Cambridge Sedgwickians, forming a coalition of ‘Archaeans’ against the Survey. Geikie was supported by Lloyd Morgan. Attention focused particularly on Ogof Lle-sugn Cave and St Non's Arch, with theory/controversy-ladenness of observations evident on both sides. Evidence from an eyewitness student record of a Geological Society meeting reveals the ‘sanit`ized’ nature of the official summary of the debate in QJGS. Field mapping early in the twentieth century by J. F. N. Green allowed a compromise consensus to be achieved, but Green's evidence for unconformity between the Cambrian and the Dimetian, obtained by excavation, can no longer be verified, and his consensual history of the area may need revision. Unconformity between the Cambrian and the Pebidian tuffs is not in doubt, however, and Precambrian at St David's is accepted. The study exhibits features of geological controversy and the British geological community in the nineteenth century. It also furnishes a further instance of the great influence of Murchison in nineteenth-century British geology and the side-effects of his controversy with Sedgwick.