Information, evolution, and change

The basic premise of this paper is that the ethicality of systems can be improved by placing them on a more solid informational foundation. Information, evolution, and change are seen to be integrally related. An information typology of nonreferential, referential, and state-referential information is proposed to handle the ontological, epistemological, and teleological aspects of systems. These information types have a particular entailment relationship to each other. The typology and entailment ordering are seen as having important consequences for the design of social systems.     

Negotiation,Management, and Systems Thinking

The mutual apartness of negotiation, management, and systems thinking and practice is highlighted, and a reflection on a systemic view of negotiation is presented. An overview of negotiation studies is given, as well as practical comments on the pursuit of win-win to achieve the general satisfaction of the parties and lasting relationships; the importance of everybody's participation; different views and facets of negotiation and of conflict; the basic variables of power, time, and information; and the basic points for a methodic negotiation process. Some aspects of negotiation have been selected from the management literature. Systems approaches that could contribute to negotiation and benefit from its findings are recalled, integrated into TSI/ LSI, which seems to offer a conceptual and procedural guide to a systemic view of negotiation as a wheel for management, as suggested in the final section.     

Meditations on Systems Thinking, Spiritual Systems, and Deep Ecology

This paper is written for a broad general readership. It presents a prismatic reflection on systemic thinking, Buddhist philosophy, and deep ecology, with the objective of shedding light on world problems and understanding their gravity. Such an inquiry constitutes a formidable spearhead for the betterment of the world, guiding us towards holism, and moving us away from the partial, fragmented, compartmentalized thinking that is prevalent today. Although no deliberate attempt is made to articulate solutions to specific problems, a brief account of current socially engaged action is described.     

信息获利、道德风险与询价机构报价

本文考虑二级市场信息获利因素引发的询价机构在报价方面存在的道德风险,结合新股配给规则,通过理论和实证模型分析二级市场信息获利对询价机构报价行为的影响机制.理论模型表明二级市场信息获利使得询价机构存在未真实报价的道德风险,市场通过最大化高报价投资者申购份额的配售方式以减少未真实报价的道德风险,从而二级市场信息获利使得参与询价的机构投资者具有高报价倾向.在进一步的实证分析中,基于2010年10月到2018年6月在中国A股上市的1234家IPO公司的详细报价数据对理论模型进行检验,实证结论支持理论模型结论;进一步通过分类别、分行业、分阶段地研究,发现询价机构高报价倾向受二级市场信息获利的影响程度存在类别和行业差异.本文首次考虑二级市场信息获利这一诱发道德风险的因素对询价机构报价行为的影响,发现询价机构存在把信息留在桌子上的道德风险,同时为市场价高者得的配给规则提供了理论支撑,对政策改革具有重要启示.     

前景理论、心理账户与报童趋中效应

学界关于前景理论是否能够解释报童模型行为实验中出现的趋中效应依然存在疑问，研究从心理账户角度探索这一问题。首先，基于心理账户将前景理论拓展用于复合结果情形，提出了计算包含复合结果前景价值的理论模型；然后，基于该理论模型构建了前景理论基础的报童模型，发现零售商的订购决策由偏好的组合效应决定。通过数值算例研究，证实在偏好的特定组合下，前景理论能够解释报童趋中效应；研究还证实，前景理论的非线性权重函数对报童趋中效应具有反作用，报童趋中效应可归因于基于多重心理账户建构的价值函数。     

政府人才政策、人力资本与区域创新

政府人才政策是除了其财税安排以外促进区域创新的重要手段。基于理论分析,利用2005~2017年中国省级面板数据,通过逐步回归法实证分析了政府人才政策对区域创新效率和创新产出的影响。研究发现,人才政策能够直接提高区域创新效率和创新产出,同时也能通过改变区域人力资本存量和人力资本结构间接提高区域创新效率和创新产出。而且,人才政策通过改变区域人力资本存量的方式来提高区域创新效率和创新产出的效果要优于通过改变区域人力资本结构的方式。然而,人才政策对区域创新的影响存在威廉姆森空间聚集效应,人才政策力度达到一定程度后对区域创新的影响会减弱。因此,地方政府要充分了解本区域社会经济发展状况和人力资本情况,从而确定政策方向和政策力度。     

人口-资源-环境-经济系统分析模型体系

在进行定性分析的基础上,建立了基于动态投入产出原理的可持续发展多目标最优规划模型,以研究各种经济要素变动和经济结构转变、发展战略和目标之间的相互关系,分析模拟中国中长期可持续发展状况.     

Large-Scale Corruption: Definition,Causes, and Cures

Corruption is a social pathology. It has much the same effect on the development of a nation that cancer has on the life of a biological organism. Through a review of the literature, a definition of corruption is derived. Large-scale corruption is supported by power networks. In order to function and survive, power networks require five capabilities: economic, technical, political, physical, and ideological. Large-scale corruption is an emergent social process. The same governing factors that sustain large-scale corruption are in direct opposition to efforts to promote development. The history and evolution of a government agency for small farmers in a developing country are reviewed. While extracting wealth, corrupt power networks generated waste, reduced production, and caused acrimony on the part of the victims. For each dollar embezzled there was a resulting loss of $2.5. The corrupt networks reached such a level that the government had to disassemble the agencies. The ability to detect and neutralize corrupt networks is essential to development.     

Wisdom, ethics, and information technology: Some philosophical reflections

An increasing need is felt for wisdom and ethics in our technological society. This is especially the case in connection with information use and decision making. It is one thing to manipulate data and generate information with our new technologies but quite another thing to make proper use of it once we have got it. In the search for wisdom and ethics, one must be alert to the risk that we mold them into the dominating scientific-technological framework. The wisdom and ethics lose their normative power and enriching potential for our human lives. In exploring the traditions that stand at the cradle of our culture, this paper explains the specific character of the Hebrew/Christian view on wisdom and shows how this can contribute to the wise use of our new machines.     

捐赠期望落差、现金流权与企业应对策略

企业慈善捐赠金额低于预期（即捐赠期望落差）会降低企业合法性,企业如何应对是一个重要的理论和实践问题。基于中国上市公司2008~2018年的数据,探讨企业如何通过调整后续的企业社会责任行为来降低捐赠期望落差的负面影响。研究表明：捐赠历史和社会期望落差越大,企业越可能增加捐赠以消除负面影响;捐赠历史和社会期望落差对企业其他社会责任行为增加的影响不显著,说明企业不倾向于采用增加其他社会责任行为来降低捐赠期望落差带来的负面影响;不同类型捐赠期望落差对企业行为的影响强度不同：与捐赠历史期望落差相比,捐赠社会期望落差对捐赠增加的影响更强,但两者对于其他社会责任行为增加的影响没有显著差异;实际控制人的现金流权比例越高,对捐赠增加的成本越敏感,捐赠历史和社会期望落差对捐赠增加的影响越弱。上述结论将绩效反馈从财务绩效拓展到社会绩效,不仅丰富了绩效反馈和慈善捐增文献,而且对企业应对捐赠期望落差有重要启示。     

Higher qualifications,first-birth timing,and further childbearing in England and Wales

This article examines how strong the association is between the obtaining of higher educational qualifications and later entry to motherhood, and how these are associated with levels and pace of second and subsequent childbearing. Data from the ONS Longitudinal Study are used to estimate these associations for women born in England and Wales between 1954 and 1958. Average age of entry to motherhood is found to be five years later for women with higher qualifications than for those without. Increasing age of motherhood is always associated with a lower likelihood of going on to have another child, but the decline with age is less pronounced for women with a higher qualification. Moreover, for any given age of childbearing, mothers with a higher qualification are more likely than those without to have another child, and are more likely to do so quickly.     

Joint estimation of DOA, frequency, and polarization based on cumulants and UCA

A joint estimation algorithm of direction of arrival (DOA), frequency, and polarization, based on fourth-order cumulants and uniform circular array (UCA) of trimmed vector sensors is presented for narrowband non-Gaussian signals. The proposed approach, which is suitable for applications in arbitrary Gaussian noise environments, gives a closed-form representation of the estimated parameters, without spectral peak searching. An efficient method is also provided for elimination of cyclic phase ambiguities. Simulations are presented to show the performance of the algorithm.     

人口、资源、环境与经济协调发展的多目标集成模型

人口 (population)、资源 (resource)、环境 (environment)和经济 (economy)是区域可持续发展的关键要素 ,组成了一个动态开放复杂系统 ,简称为PREE系统。在PREE协调发展研究的定量分析中 ,需要解决PREE复杂系统的整体性问题。提出了一种三层次模型体系结构 ;建立了基于目标规划的PREE系统多目标综合集成模型。该模型可较好地反映各子系统协调发展的制衡关系 ,并完整地体现了PREE系统的整体性特征 ,为开展用于预测和规划的区域可持续发展的定量研究提供了技术基础。     

Creating Public Spaces and Practiced Places for Democracy,Discourse, and the Emergence of Civil Society

A question before us in the process of creating public spaces and practiced places for democracy and civil society concerns what democracy means for civil society and what civil society means for democratization of the national state in a globalizing world? In this article the author discusses the meaning of democracy and civil society, and the relation each shares. Following, the author examines the nature of space through the work of [Lefebvre H (1991) The production of space. (Trans. Donald Nicholson-Smith). Blackwell, Oxford, Cambridge, Mass] drawing on the work of the French theorist to construct a tripartite model of public space. As well, the author examines the notion of creating practiced places for democracy civil society, drawing on the work of [de Certeau M (1984) The practice of everyday life. University of California Press, Berkeley] to understand the interplay of discourse in reconfiguring space as a practiced place. The author also examines social space and power-geometry as it relates to creating public spaces and practiced places for democracy and civil society. In the final section, the author provides reflections on the work that lies ahead for democratization of the nation-state and the emergence of democratic civil society.     

Invariant density,Lapunov exponent,and almost sure stability of Markovian-regime-switching linear systems

This paper is concerned with stability of a class of randomly switched systems of ordinary differential equations. The system under consideration can be viewed as a two-component process (X(t), α(t)), where the system is linear in X(t) and α(t) is a continuous-time Markov chain with a finite state space. Conditions for almost surely exponential stability and instability are obtained. The conditions are based on the Lyapunov exponent, which in turn, depends on the associate invariant density. Concentrating on the case that the continuous component is two dimensional, using transformation techniques, differential equations satisfied by the invariant density associated with the Lyapunov exponent are derived. Conditions for existence and uniqueness of solutions are derived. Then numerical solutions are developed to solve the associated differential equations.     

Learning with participatory monitoring and evaluation in Dir district,northwest frontier province,Pakistan

This paper is concerned with the development of a monitoring and evaluation system for the second phase of a United Nations Drug Control Programme (UNDCP) in Pakistan and the manner in which participatory structures are developed and built on in a complex development context. Initially the paper introduces the context. The project is concerned with rural development issues as part of a structured programme to substitute opium poppy growing with a range of agricultural and social innovations. During the first phase of the project (up to 1993) the main focus of attention for the project was measured in terms of physical progress with road building, electricity supply, irrigation works and concentration on improved agricultural practices. Phase II has set out to build on this, most specifically in terms of gaining the greater participation of local people in the project activity. The paper describes the monitoring and evaluation (M&E) structure for the project and notes that it is intended that M&E further encourage participation and beneficiary analysis (analysis of project benefits by those who are intended to derive most from the project outputs). One of the primary means set out for achieving this was by inducing the professional staff working in the project to adopt new mind sets, adjusting their focus from being technical experts supplying undoubted technical improvements to being co-operative partners, bringing ideas to the area but equally being willing to work through these ideas and their implications and learn from the communities. The process for the development of the monitoring system is described, and the methodology ‘TeamUp’ discussed. Links are made to related areas of study—most specifically the literature of Rapid and Participatory Rural Development (RRA and PRA). Finally, the paper discusses the results of the research to date and the likely extension of the ideas to other projects.     

Evolutionary Stable Strategies for Supply Chains: Selfishness,Fairness, and Altruism

The management strategies of a firm are inevitable affected by individual behavior preferences. The effect of individual preference on the evolutionary dynamics for supply chains is studied by employing replicator dynamics. Each firm has three behavior preferences: selfishness, fairness, and altruism. Firstly, the case that the strategy set of manufacturers and retailers including two pure strategies is considered and the effect of preference parameter on the equilibrium outcome in the shortterm interaction is discussed. Secondly, the equilibrium state in the short-term is always disturbed because the change of the environment, firm's structure, and so forth. Using the replicator dynamics,the evolutionary stable strategies of manufacturers and retailers in the long-term interaction are analyzed. Finally, the extend case that the strategy set of manufacturers and retailers include three pure strategies is investigated. These results are found that the strategy profile in which both manufacturer and retailer choose fairness or altruism, or one player chooses fair or altruistic strategy and the other player chooses selfish strategy may be evolutionary stable, the stability of these equilibria depends on the the preference parameters.     

基于极大极小准则下的 (n,k,m) 卷积码识别

针对现有识别方法仅适用于特定类型的卷积码,以及容错能力有待提高的问题,提出了一种基于改进门限沃尔什-哈达玛变换(Walsh-Hadamard transform, WHT)的(n,k,m)卷积码参数遍历识别方法。首先,将问题分为非系统和系统形式两种情况进行考虑,根据各自结构特点分别建立关于校验多项式的二元域方程,并建立二元假设;然后,遍历不同的参数组合并利用WHT求解对应方程,通过二元判决得到校验多项式,同时为提升方法的鲁棒性,采用极大极小准则对判决门限进行了改进。最后,利用校验多项式矩阵与生成多项式矩阵的正交关系求解生成多项式。仿真结果表明,该方法对各码率的卷积码均能有效识别,且抗误码性能优于传统方法。     

投资者情绪、股权结构特征与上市公司创新效率

非理性的投资者情绪以及管理层对股市的过度“呵护”扭曲了中国A股上市公司的投资结构，影响资本市场资本配置效率。使用上市公司数据探讨了投资者情绪和股权结构特征对上市公司创新效率的影响。研究发现：A股上市公司存在较为明显的迎合投资现象，投资者情绪与上市公司投资效率之间存在非线性关系的抑制作用，即当市场情绪低落时，创新效率的损失对投资者情绪十分敏感；当市场情绪高涨时，创新效率的增速则对投资者情绪变得迟钝。另外，本文得出的3个结论应获得足够的关注：① 国有或国有控股的上市公司迎合投资的创新效率要高于民营上市公司，政府应积极利用市场情绪推动国有上市公司混改，利用非公资本改良国有上市公司的投资“DNA”，实现产业转型和技术升级的创新基因表达。② 积极打造国家创新驱动发展战略相关产业的资本风口，鼓励并引导社会资本进入高科技领域等创新效率较高的实体产业。③ 大力推动上市公司“两权分离”，提高管理团队的投资能力和投资的持续性，保持较高的投资水平和创新效率。     

Sustainability,Systems Thinking and Professional Practice

This article explores the impact of the new sustainability agenda on the occupational and professional needs of those who have taken educational and training programmes in the environmental field either at undergraduate or postgraduate level or through relevant professional institutions’ continuing professional development programmes. It also describes a one-day workshop for the professionals on sustainable development, based on systems thinking and practice. The workshop provides a model for developing greater understanding and effective action in professional practice, by using dialogue and interprofessional learning to explore approaches to sustainability in a variety of business and professional contexts. It introduces the principles underpinning the concept of sustainability and provides tools to support the integration of sustainable development into professional practice and organisational change.