Suppression of chaos by periodic oscillations in a model for cyclic AMP signalling inDictyostelium cells

We investigate how the introduction of cells oscillating periodically affects the behaviour of a suspension ofDictyostelium discoideum amoebae undergoing chaotic oscillations of cyclic AMP. The analysis of a model indicates that a tiny proportion of periodic cells suffices to transform chaos into periodic oscillations in such suspensions. A similar result is obtained by forcing the aperiodic oscillations by a small-amplitude, periodic input of cyclic AMP. The results provide an explanation for the observation of regular oscillations in suspensions of a putatively chaotic mutant ofDictyostelium discoideum ¹². More generally, the results show how chaos in biological systems may disappear through the coupling with periodic oscillations.     

Regular oscillations in suspensions of a putatively chaotic mutant of Dictyostelium discoideum

We have tested the light-scattering properties of suspensions of the Dictyostelium discoideum mutant HH201 derived from the mutant Fr17. Previous studies indicated that HH201 and Fr17 possess highly irregular rhythmic properties which might represent aperiodic oscillations, i.e. chaos. We report that the former mutant can display regular oscillatory behavior. Possible explanations for this result are discussed, including that of a transition from chaotic to periodic behavior resulting from some parameter change or from strong intercellular coupling in cell suspensions.     

Regular oscillations in suspensions of a putatively chaotic mutant ofDictyostelium discoideum

Summary We have tested the light-scattering properties of suspensions of theDictyostelium discoideum mutantHH201 derived from the mutantFr17. Previous studies indicated thatHH201 andFr17 possess highly irregular rhythmic properties which might represent aperiodic oscillations, i.e. chaos. We report that the former mutant can display regular oscillatory behavior. Possible explanations for this result are discussed, including that of a transition from chaotic to periodic behavior resulting from some parameter change or from strong intercellular coupling in cell suspensions.     

高纯铝再结晶晶界面的择尤取向

相比于传统的晶体择尤取向（晶体织构,简称织构）,晶界面择尤取向是一个新的科学问题.系统地研究晶界面择尤取向的形成规律和演化机制对合理调控显微组织结构以显著改善材料的各种使用性能具有非常重要的科学意义和应用价值.本文利用基于体视学原理和电子背散射衍射技术的晶界特征分布五参数表征分析方法,研究了冷轧变形高纯铝（99.99%）再结晶晶界面的择尤取向问题.结果表明,在再结晶及晶粒长大过程中,晶界面择尤取向由最初的{2 2 3}晶面转变为{1 1 1}晶面,最后取向在{1 0 0}晶面上.分析指出,冷轧变形高纯铝再结晶组织中,小角度晶界（取向差介于2°~15°）是其晶界构成的主体部分;在晶粒长大过程中,晶体织构由{1 1 0}〈1 1 2〉黄铜织构为主转变为以{0 1 1}〈1 0 0〉高斯织构和{0 2 3}〈1 0 0〉织构共存为主,受晶面能和晶体织构的影响,小角度晶界一般择尤取向于可形成能量较低的倾侧型小角度晶界所对应的晶面上.这是导致高纯铝再结晶晶界面择尤取向随晶粒长大而发生上述规律性变化的主要原因.     

The mechanism of bursting phenomena in Belousov-Zhabotinsky (BZ) chemical reaction with multiple time scales

The dynamics of a typical Belousov-Zhabotinsky (BZ) reaction with multiple time scales is investigated in this paper. Different forms of periodic bursting phenomena, and specially, three types of chaotic bursters with different structures can be obtained, which are in common with the behaviors observed in experiments. The bifurcations connecting the quiescent state and the repetitive spikes are presented to account for the occurrence of the NK oscillations as well as the different forms of chaotic bursters....     

危机信息传播有效性的离散化不确定性评估模型

以科学评估危机信息传播有效性为目标,结合国内外前沿文献对危机信息传播的影响因素和传播过程的不确定性进行了分析论述。分析认为,危机信息传播有效性是一个不确定性概念,是模糊性与随机性的统一;其评估问题也需要从模糊性与随机性两个方面结合进行考虑。应用模糊随机理论,构建了危机信息传播有效性的离散化评估模型,并给出了隶属函数的确定方法。这是对危机信息传播有效性评估理论与方法的拓展,为危机信息传播有效性的定量研究提供了思路。     

射频驱动约瑟夫森结中的混沌行为及控制新方法

采用电路仿真的方法，对射频驱动下的约瑟夫森结中的混沌行为特性进行了研究，给出了时域波形、频谱、对初始条件的敏感关系，以及存在混沌行为的参数范围等结果。首次对存在串联LC谐振电路时的情况进行了研究，发现串联LC电路的存在能够有效的消除有害混沌行为。     

Stable regularities without governing laws?

Can stable regularities be explained without appealing to governing laws or any other modal notion? In this paper, I consider what I will call a ‘Humean system’—a generic dynamical system without guiding laws—and assess whether it could display stable regularities. First, I present what can be interpreted as an account of the rise of stable regularities, following from Strevens (2003), which has been applied to explain the patterns of complex systems (such as those from meteorology and statistical mechanics). Second, since this account presupposes that the underlying dynamics displays deterministic chaos, I assess whether it can be adapted to cases where the underlying dynamics is not chaotic but truly random—that is, cases where there is no dynamics guiding the time evolution of the system. If this is so, the resulting stable, apparently non-accidental regularities are the fruit of what can be called statistical necessity rather than of a primitive physical necessity.     

基于非线性自适应神经网络的刨煤机刨头位置控制系统

由于多种因素影响刨煤机刨头位置的控制，本文提出了一种基于非线性自适应神经网络的刨煤机刨头位置控制系统，该系统采用了多传感器数据融合的方法，并将其应用在前馈反馈自适应神经网络中，其结果表明，与常规PID系统相比该系统能够消除静差从而更好地跟踪参考曲线。     

Forecasting the Daily Time‐Varying Beta of European Banks During the Crisis Period: Comparison Between GARCH Models and the Kalman Filter

This intention of this paper is to empirically forecast the daily betas of a few European banks by means of four generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models and the Kalman filter method during the pre‐global financial crisis period and the crisis period. The four GARCH models employed are BEKK GARCH, DCC GARCH, DCC‐MIDAS GARCH and Gaussian‐copula GARCH. The data consist of daily stock prices from 2001 to 2013 from two large banks each from Austria, Belgium, Greece, Holland, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain. We apply the rolling forecasting method and the model confidence sets (MCS) to compare the daily forecasting ability of the five models during one month of the pre‐crisis (January 2007) and the crisis (January 2013) periods. Based on the MCS results, the BEKK proves the best model in the January 2007 period, and the Kalman filter overly outperforms the other models during the January 2013 period. Results have implications regarding the choice of model during different periods by practitioners and academics. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

后危机时代全球科技投入态势分析

分析了后危机时代全球研发投入的概况,总结了金融危机给各国研发投入带来的负面影响及最新的研发投入趋势。并指出,金融危机使企业研发投入减少了,但是危机也使各国政府更加深刻认识到,科技投入和科技创新对促进经济和社会发展具有重大意义,因此,仍然努力增加研发预算,并出台各种举措帮助企业增加研发投入。在最后进行了总结,并结合我国的实际情况提出了政策建议。     

Celestial chaos: The new logics of theory-testing in orbital dynamics

I explore how the nature, scope, and limits of the knowledge obtained in orbital dynamics has changed in recent years. Innovations in the design of spacecraft trajectories, as well as in astronomy, have led to new logics of theory-testing—that is, new research methodologies—in orbital dynamics. These methodologies—which combine resonance overlap theories, numerical experiments, and the implementation of space missions—were developed in response to the discovery of chaotic dynamical systems in our solar system. In the past few decades, they have replaced the methodology that dominated orbital research in the centuries following Newton's Principia. As a result, the kind of knowledge achieved by orbital research has changed: we can know how orbiting bodies in chaotic systems behave, but only over sufficiently short time scales; and we can reliably measure those temporal limitations, using Lyapunov time.     

Bayesian Forecasting for Financial Risk Management,Pre and Post the Global Financial Crisis

Value‐at‐risk (VaR) forecasting via a computational Bayesian framework is considered. A range of parametric models is compared, including standard, threshold nonlinear and Markov switching generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specifications, plus standard and nonlinear stochastic volatility models, most considering four error probability distributions: Gaussian, Student‐t, skewed‐t and generalized error distribution. Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are employed in estimation and forecasting. A portfolio of four Asia–Pacific stock markets is considered. Two forecasting periods are evaluated in light of the recent global financial crisis. Results reveal that: (i) GARCH models outperformed stochastic volatility models in almost all cases; (ii) asymmetric volatility models were clearly favoured pre crisis, while at the 1% level during and post crisis, for a 1‐day horizon, models with skewed‐t errors ranked best, while integrated GARCH models were favoured at the 5% level; (iii) all models forecast VaR less accurately and anti‐conservatively post crisis. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于时间相关和可变块的 H.264去块滤波优化算法

基于块的混合编码在压缩率较高的情况下会产生明显的块效应,导致编码图像主观质量下降.本文在研究和分析了 H.264标准中采用的去块滤波方法后,为了进一步提高去块滤波的性能,提出了一种新的算法.该算法利用相邻两帧图像的时间相关性,即利用参考帧中已计算好的边界强度来预测下一帧的边界强度,并采用了基于可变块的去块滤波方法,以降低滤波过程中的计算量.实验结果表明该算法在对解码图像质量没有任何影响的情况下较标准算法降低了78%左右的滤波运算时间,有效地缓解了 H.264解码运算复杂度,提高整体解码时间,以有助于实时应用的实现     

Forecasting domestic liquidity during a crisis: what works best?

The 1990s were a turbulent time for Latin American and Caribbean countries. During this period, the region suffered from no less than 16 banking crises. One the most important determinants of the severity of banking a crisis is commercial bank liquidity. Banking systems that are relatively liquid are better able to deal with the large deposit withdrawals which tend to accompany bank runs. This study provides an assessment of whether behavioural models, linear time series or nonlinear time series models are better able to account for liquidity dynamics during a crisis. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于混沌-RBF神经网络的风电场风速预测

在利用风速时间序列具有混沌特性的前提下,将相空间重构和RBF神经网络结合的混合算法用于风电场风速预测。通过实例仿真计算对比表明,该混沌-RBF神经网络的混合算法可以进一步提高预测准确度。     

The dynamic effect of macroeconomic news on the euro/US dollar exchange rate

This study investigates the impact of 70 US and EU macroeconomic news announcements on euro/dollar returns and volatility from November 2004 to April 2014. We use regime smooth transition regression to endogenously define recession and expansion. Our sample period includes the US mortgage crisis and EU sovereign debt crisis. Most news is unstable as its effect varies between these economic states. There are asymmetrical effects between recession and expansion states for both US and EU news, with most US news having a larger impact and nearly double the number of significant EU announcements. Volatility increases for over 85% of news coefficients, with more than half still being significantly different between states.     

运用Lyapunov指数方法的车辆横向运动混沌分析及其滑模变结构控制

建立了考虑车辆横摆、侧向以及侧倾运动的3自由度非线性整车模型：运用Lyapunov指数方法对所建立的非线性整车模型进行了混沌的数值仿真分析．通过最大Lyapunov指数图和分岔图发现,车辆的横向运动非常复杂,包含了倍周期、拟周期以及混沌运动,对于车辆极限工况时的横向运动稳定性是不利的．利用滑模变结构控制（sliding mode variable structure control,SMVSC）方法,设计了SMVSC控制器,对车辆横向运动中的混沌进行了控制．为了减少SMVSC控制系统的抖振,进一步提高车辆在极限工况下行驶的横向运动稳定性,采用了幂次趋近律,利用模糊控制的方法实现了趋近律的自适应策略．最后将所设计的自适应趋近律的SMVSC系统在Matlab中进行了仿真,并将未加控制,SMVSC控制以及自适应趋近SMVSC控制三种仿真结果进行了对比分析,发现采用了自适应趋近的SMVSC控制对混沌的控制效果比其他的都要好,有效抑制了车辆横向运动中的混沌,显著提高了车辆在极限工况下行驶的横向稳定性,充分证明了该控制策略是有效的．     

Improved generalized cell mapping for global analysis of dynamical systems

Three main parts of generalized cell mapping are improved for global analysis.A simple method,which is not based on the theory of digraphs,is presented to locate complete self-cycling sets that correspond to attractors and unstable invariant sets involving saddle,unstable periodic orbit and chaotic saddle.Refinement for complete self-cycling sets is developed to locate attractors and unstable invariant sets with high degree of accuracy,which can start with a coarse cell structure.A nonuniformly interior-and...     

Periodic and chaotic dynamics of composite laminated piezoelectric rectangular plate with one-to-two internal resonance

The bifurcations and chaotic dynamics of a simply supported symmetric cross-ply composite laminated piezoelectric rectangular plate are studied for the first time,which are simultaneously forced by the transverse,in-plane excitations and the excitation loaded by piezoelectric layers.Based on the Reddy's third-order shear deformation plate theory,the nonlinear governing equations of motion for the composite laminated piezoelectric rectangular plate are derived by using the Hamilton's principle.The Galerkin's...