Under Pressure: Visioning in a Regulated Environment

This paper describes four case studies of the practice of vision development in four utilities organisations. Important observations emerge about current practice; for example, tensions can be observed in organisations struggling to satisfy the expectations of a diverse range of stakeholders. Formal methodologies for visioning are rarely adopted in vision development; rather more informal processes of debate are preferred. Difficulties with internal communication and staff buy-in to the vision are also identified. Comparisons are drawn with the results of previous work on visioning in the financial services sector.     

An Holistic Approach to the Management of Information Systems Development—A View Using a Soft Systems Approach and Multiple Viewpoints

This paper argues that only a systems-based approach to information systems development is likely to cover all the recognized problem issues reported in the literature. It is then shown that software development can be characterized by the structure of the Soft Systems Methodology, so that this methodology acts as a metaphor for the process of information systems development. The structure of this methodology can be seen at lower levels of the development process, and so the model generated here is seen as recursive. Further, information systems development is seen as an unstructured business problem that can be characterized by the Multiple Viewpoint approach. The connections between this approach and the methodology are identified. Finally, the unifying link between these approaches and all forms of action research is identified.     

慢性阻塞性肺病中医五脏关系及其病变规律的研究

目的:用数据挖掘的方法分析慢性阻塞性肺病病变过程中中医五脏的传变规律及其相互影响关系.方法:建立慢性阻塞性肺病病例数据库,将数据库中的数据预处理转换,并导出到Weka的格式(.arff),然后利用Weka进行相关的数据挖掘分析.结果:在慢性阻塞性肺病的病变过程中,初起病位在肺,逐步转变为肺脾肾、肺脾心同病,后期肺脾心肝肾五脏俱损,且中焦脾土是其传变的关键.结论:应用数据挖掘的方法分析疾病病变过程中五脏的传变关系及其相互影响关系具有一定的应用前景.     

协同模式识别方法综述

介绍协同学理论的基本原理及常见的协同模式识别算法 ,有助于模式识别理论的进一步发展。介绍了相关的基本概念 ,重点对协同识别算法中的原型模式的选择及注意参数的设置等关键技术进行了综述。分析了各种常见方法的应用效果并进行了初步的评价 ,展望了协同模式识别算法的发展方向。协同模式识别方法是协同学原理应用于模式识别领域的一种新方法 ,该算法有着很好的发展前景     

Population estimates; backseries methodology for 1992-2000

In each decade, population estimates are rebased using data from the most recent census. However, this would lead to a step change in the population estimates series. To avoid this discontinuity the backseries for 1992 to 2000, was revised to bring it into line with the 2001 Census. This article discusses the methodology used to produce the final revised backseries for 1992 to 2000 published by ONS in October 2004. The final estimates were produced after a long period of research into the best methodology to use. Traditionally, the backseries have been revised using an interim simple period method, followed by a final simple cohort method. The approach taken following the 2001 Census was much more comprehensive. This article outlines this approach, summarises the range of methods available and describes in detail the final method selected.     

团队创新气氛量表研究——基于长三角地区的实证分析

创新气氛测量工具的选择取决于创新气氛的研究层次.团队层面上创新气氛的测量工具为TCI(Team Climate Inventory)量表.通过对TCI量表相关研究的回顾,发现绝大多数国外研究支持TCI四因子模型和五因子模型.采用实证研究的方法对TCI量表进行修订,最终确定的量表包括目标认同,任务导向和创新支持,参与安全和团队互动共5个因子,25个题目,该结论与国外TCI量表五因子模型基本一致.未来可自主开发适合中国企业文化的团队创新气氛量表和对团队创新气氛进行关系研究.     

Unfolding a Theory of Systemic Intervention

This paper interrogates four perspectives (structuralist community psychology, deconstruction, interpretive systemology, and critical systems thinking) to inform the unfolding of a theory of systemic intervention. A vision of epistemology is provided which clarifies the relationships among knowledge, power, will and intervention, and a normative framework for systemic intervention is then presented. Finally, the theory unfolded in this paper is deconstructed to reveal a second theory, yet to be explored, of systemic life projects. This provides an exciting agenda for future research.     

Repositing Thinking for Future Social Systems Design: In Tribute to Bela H. Banathy and His Inspiration of the Fuschl Conversations

Contemporary systems activity can be divided into that stressing feasible and practical short-term measures, and that which is more ideal-aware, focussed on mid-longer term futures, and typically involving on-going community or social systems design. The paper highlights the key differences in approach, but then invites closer collaboration in the cause of the possible contribution that systems thinking could make for a longer term future, with Y3K (Year 3000) as a metaphor for this. This analysis, which derives from work undertaken at Asilomar 1995 and Fuschl conversations in 2000 and 2002, finds that contemporary social system design, which is driven by western culture and is action-oriented, needs adaptation before it could contribute to greater future global harmony. A truly comprehensive systems design process must accommodate a wide range of possible parameters in terms of culture, and appreciation of time and progress. An emerging paradigm as basis for thinking and engaging in social systems design work of the future is offered, which also has relevance to general systems practice.     

双响应曲面方法在改进产品设计中的应用研究

以天津市某橡胶公司轮胎产品设计为对象 ,采用双响应曲面方法对轮胎生产过程中的一个重要质量特征 (胶料硬度 )进行了优化 ,并根据双响应曲面方法设计了试验设计软件 ,试验设计结果找到了达到胶料硬度目标并减少硬度变异的配比条件 .     

Stage division and pattern discovery of complex patient care processes

This paper studies the design of a clinical pathway that defines medical service activities within each stage of a patient care process. Much prior research has developed clinical process models that consider the trajectory of services occurring in a care process, by using data mining techniques on process execution logs. A novel approach that provides a more efficient way of clinical pathway design is introduced in this paper. Based on the strategy of TEI@I methodology, the proposed approach integrates statistical methods, optimization techniques and data mining. With the preprocessed data, a complex care process is subsequently divided into several medical stages, and then the patterns of each stage are identified, and thus a clinical pathway is developed. Finally, the proposed method is applied to the real world, using archival data derived from a hospital in Beijing, about three diseases that involve various departments, with an average of 300 samples for each disease. The results of realworld applications demonstrate that the proposed method can automatically and efficiently facilitate clinical pathways design. The main contributions to the field in this paper include (a) a new application of TEI@I methodology in healthcare domain, (b) a novel method for complex processes analysis, (c) tangible evidence of automatic clinical pathways design in the real world.     

A comparison of official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales

We compare official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales. The Bayesian approach allows the integration of uncertainty in the data, models and model parameters in a coherent and consistent manner. Bayesian methodology for time-series forecasting is introduced, including autoregressive (AR) and stochastic volatility (SV) models. These models are then fitted to a historical time series of data from 1841 to 2007 and used to predict future population totals to 2033. These results are compared to the most recent projections produced by the Office for National Statistics. Sensitivity analyses are then performed to test the effect of changes in the prior uncertainty for a single parameter. Finally, in-sample forecasts are compared with actual population and previous official projections. The article ends with some conclusions and recommendations for future work.     

基于顾客细分的中国手机市场品牌重叠测度

文章基于品牌个性和品牌定位理论，以中国大陆手机市场作为研究对象，调查了481名手机用户对七大手机品牌的品牌个性的评价；在此基础上，运用潜变量分析中的离散因子模型，进行顾客细分并对每个品牌的每个细分组进行特征刻画.并进一步从顾客细分角度量化了品牌重叠.研究结果发现七大手机品牌在品牌个性维度上的品牌辨识度不高.最后文章从理论层面总结了品牌重叠的原因以及品牌重叠未来的研究方向.     

Refocusing Systems Analysis of Organizations Through a Semiotic Lens: Interpretive Framework and Method

Recent advances in systems theory have significantly raised its utility for supporting problem-structuring activity in organizations. However, this approach has been inadequately developed for representing and evaluating the nature and outcomes of organizational functioning. Toward that end this paper introduces a new method, called interpretive systems analysis, which incorporates ideas from semiotic theory. Using this method, the complex web of agents, actions, means, and circumstances in organizational functioning may be analytically discriminated into multiple courses of action that are emphasized on dimensions of legitimacy, motivation, and power. An integrative appraisal of key elements and factors shaping organizational performance may then be achieved through the formulation of “systems of significance,” formed of oppositional and associative relations. Organizations can thus be illuminated in terms of principle inconsistencies and tensions shaping their operations. The application and utility of this method is illustrated through a case study of customer service operations.     

Comparative Analysis and Fuzzy Selection of Information System Development Approach

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ATMS体系结构发展及若干关键基础理论

通过概述 ITS的功能模块组成及它们间的关系 ,指出了 ATMS在 ITS中的重要地位 .然后从不同的角度讨论了 ITS,ATMS的体系结构及其发展 .在此基础上 ,分析了当前 ATMS存在的若干理论与技术实现的问题 .由于 ATMS的发展对 ITS至关重要 ,结合笔者正在进行的研究工作 ,文章指出了发展ATMS应该进行的关键理论与技术研究     

Six scenarios for the future of systems “problem solving”

In this paper six scenarios for the future of systems “problem solving” are investigated in order to ascertain whether an approach can be identified (a) that offers prospects for the long-term survival and success of systems problem solving in practice and (b) that does this without incorporating theoretical contradictions. The six approaches come under the four class headings pragmatism, isolationism, imperialism, and pluralism. The theoretical foundations of each approach are explored in a discursive fashion. This makes explicit to systems practitioners the underlying principles on which their activities are overlaid and puts such approaches into the theoretical context of the six approaches identified herein.     

一种基于D-S理论的自评系统ER改进方法

针对质量奖自评系统中评分方法的主观性问题，本文基于D—S理论，提出了一种新的证据推理方法，并证明该方法完全满足Yang等人提出的任何证据合成过程必须满足的四个公理。通过自评实例运算，进一步验证了该方法的有效性和合理性。     

Rebasing the annual mid-year population estimates for England and Wales

The ONS produces mid-year population estimates annually, which are based on updating from the most recent census. Therefore, whenever results become available from a census, a new base is created for the population estimates. This has implications for historic series, which need to be revised to be consistent with both the past and the most recent census. This article describes the methodology that will be used for this rebasing of the mid-year population estimates following the availability of results from the 2001 Census. Census results also provide a unique opportunity to assess the accuracy of the population estimates that are based on the previous census and this article also describes the approach that will be taken to the assessment of accuracy.     

Soft System Dynamics Methodology in Action: A study of the Problem of Citizen Insecurity in an Argentinean Province

This paper illustrates an application of soft system dynamics methodology (SSDM). SSDM arose as a fusion of two well-known methodologies in the systems movement: system dynamics (SD) and soft systems methodology (SSM). SSDM includes 10 steps to orchestrate and implant change in social systems, based on a multimethodological and multiparadigmatic approach as an outcome of the combination of the mentioned methodologies. After a brief introduction, the paper starts by briefly explaining SSM and SD, their stages and their problematical issues as systemic methodologies, then goes on to explain SSDM, its philosophical roots and stages, ending with a comparison among the three. It then introduces the citizen insecurity problem in Argentina, specifically in Mendoza Province, where SSDM was applied to analyze this issue. The paper concludes with an explanation of the learning points that arose from the use of SSDM in this study and suggestions for further research on citizen security and SSDM.     

Using the ‘Engagement’ Model of Problem Solving to Assist Students in Capstone Learning

The engagement model for problem solving was developed as a response to soft systems methodology being difficult to implement in certain circumstances. In the years since the original paper was published, the model has developed into an iterative problem solving approach for the assessment, creation and implementation of new ideas in difficult problem situations. This case study paper exemplifies the kind of work undertaken through the use of the model and provides a practical scenario for how one might apply it. The case study takes place in a higher education environment and relates to the development of a capstone course for management majors. The paper concludes with suggestions for future research.