Applying partial correlation method to analyzing the correlation between ionospheric NmF2 and height of isobaric level in the lower atmosphere

On the basis of a multiple linear regression model performed for ionospheric NmF2, partial correlation method is first applied to investigating the relation between NmF2 and h (the height of isobaric level) in the lower atmosphere over Wuhan, China during 1957―2004. The results show that partial correlation method can eliminate the influences of solar and geomagnetic activities as well as the seasonal varia- tion factors and reveal the true correlation between NmF2 and h in the lower atmosphere. A weak posi- tive correlation between NmF2 and h is found in the middle stratosphere. In addition, by comparing the partial correlation coefficients between NmF2 and its influence factors, we find that NmF2 is mainly affected by solar activity and the seasonal variation factors, and weakly affected by geomagnetic ac- tivity, but hardly affected by h in the lower atmosphere. The study suggests that partial correlation method is a helpful tool for investigating the correlation between ionospheric parameter and its influ- ence factors.     

Response of global lightning activity to air temperature variation

It is an issue of great attention but yet not very clear whether lightning activities increase or decrease on a warmer world. Reeve et al. presented that lightning activities in global land and the Northern Hemisphere land have positive response to the increase of wet bulb temperature at 1000hPa. Is this positive response restricted only to wet bulb temperature or in land？ What is the response of global lightning activities （in both land and ocean） to the global surface air temperature variation like？ This paper, based on the 5-year or 8-year OTD/LIS satellite-based lightning detecting data and the NCEP reanalysis data, makes a reanalysis of the response of the global and regional lightning activities to temperature variations. The results show that on the interannual time scale the global total flash rate has positive response to the variation in global surface air temperature, with the sensitivity of 17±7% K^-l. Also, the seasonal mean flash rate of continents all over the world and that of continents in the Northern Hemisphere have sensitive positive response to increase of global surface air temperature and wet bulb temperature, with the sensitivity of about 13±5% K^-1, a bit lower than estimation of 40% K^-1 in Reeve et al. However, the Southern Hemisphere and other areas like the tropics show no significant correlation.     

Simulation of the climatic effects of natural forcings during the pre-industrial era

The MPM-2,an Earth system model of intermediate complexity,is employed to study the climate sys-tem response to natural forcings during the pre-industrial era (1000-1800 AD),with a special focus on the surface air temperature (SAT) evolution. Solar radiation and volcanism are the primary natural forcings during this period. In the MPM-2,the solar radiation forcing determines the long-term trend of the climate system change,and the volcanic forcing intensifies (weakens) this trend. Ultimately,the combination of solar and volcanic forcings dominates the long-term changes of the climate system. These results are in good agreement with other model data or temperature reconstructions. Natural forcings can well explain the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). At the large regional scale,the SAT response to natural forcings is almost coincident with that of the Northern Hemisphere. Based on MPM-2 model results,it is concluded that the global climate gradually became cold during the pre-industrial era. However,MPM-2 model results substantially correlate with recon-structed solar and volcanic forcings. Namely,to some great extent,these results strongly rely on the forcing series data we choose. Therefore,in order to accurately simulate the secular variation of the historical climate,it is very important to reconstruct well the solar radiation change and volcanic forc-ing data are well reconstructed for the past 10000 years,at least for the past 2000 years,in addition to the model improvements. The sensitivity study on the abrupt solar radiation change indicates that the increased solar radiation not only strengthens the nonlinear response of SAT,but intensifies the global hydrological cycle. At the same time,the biosphere is also affected obviously.     

Contribution of cloud condensate to surface rainfall process

Contribution of cloud condensate to surface rainfall processes is investigated in a life span of tropical convection based on hourly data from a two-dimensional cloud resolving simulation. The model is forced by the large-scale vertical velocity, zonal wind and horizontal advections obtained from tropical ocean global atmosphere coupled ocean-atmosphere response experiment (TOGA COARE). The results show that during the genesis, development, and decay of tropical convection, calculations with water vapor overestimate surface rain rate, and cloud condensate plays an important role in correcting overestimation in surface rain rates. The analysis is carried out in deep convective clouds and anvil clouds during the development of tropical convection. The surface rain rates calculated with water vapor in deep convective clouds and anvil clouds have similar magnitudes, the large surface rain rate appears in deep convective clouds due to the consumption of water hydrometeors whereas the small surface rain rate occurs in anvil clouds because of the gain of ice hydrometeors. Further analysis of the grid data shows that the surface rain rates calculated with water vapor and with cloud condensate are negatively correlated with the correlation coefficient of -0.85, and the surface rain rate calculated with cloud condensate is mainly contributed to the water hydrometeors in the tropical deep convective regime.     

Linear theory of the response of Na mixing ratio to gravity waves

The influence of gravity waves on the sodium layer is studied by using a linear photochemical-dynamical coupling gravity wave model. The model includes the back-ground photochemistry and the photochemical reactions in the sodium layer. The amplitude and phase difference of the response of sodium mixing ratio to gravity waves are calculated. The results indicate that the lower part of sodium layer is the most sensitive region responding to gravity waves. The perturbation of sodium mixing ratio is in phase with temperature in the lower part of the layer. However, it is out of phase with temperature fluctuation in the upper part.     

Semi-analytical analysis of the response of the air temperature over the land surface to the global vegetation distribution

Response of the air temperature over the land surface to the global vegetation distribution is investigated, using a three-dimensional governing equation to simulate the steady, large-scale, limited amplitude perturbation of the free, inviscid and adiabatic atmosphere. The adoption of the static equation leads to a temperature governing equation in the terrain following coordinate. With the prescribed temperature as the upper boundary condition and the radiation balance as the lower boundary condition, the semi-analytical solution of the global circulation temperature can be calculated. In this article, only the air temperature （at 2 m height） over the land surface is analyzed, and the result suggests that this model can simulate the air temperature pattern over the land surface reasonably. A better simulation occurs when a simple feedback of the albedo on the temperature is included. Two sensitivity experiments are analyzed through this model. One suggests that the air temperature over the land surface descends obviously when the land surface is covered with ice all over, while another suggests that the air temperature rises a little when the land surface is covered with forest except the ice-covered area. This model appears to be a good tool to study the response of the air temperature to the vegetation distribution. Limitations of the model are also discussed.     

Numerical simulation of the sensitivity of the Pacific subtropical-tropical meridional cell to global warming

Sensitivity of the Pacific subtropical-tropical meridional cell to global warming is examined by using a global ocean-atmosphere coupled model developed at LASG/IAP. Results indicate that associated with the increasing of atmospheric carbon dioxide, the most prominent signals of global warming locate at high latitudes, and the change of middle and low latitudes, in particular the surface wind, is relatively weak, which leads to a weak response of the Pacific subtropical-tropical meridional cell. At the time of atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling, the change of the meridional cell strength is smaller than the amplitude of natural variability.     

Hotspots of the sensitivity of the land surface hydrological cycle to climate change

Due to the shortage of the global observational data of the terrestrial hydrological variables,the understanding of how surface hydrological processes respond to climate change is still limited.In this study,the Community Land Model(CLM4.0)with high resolution atmospheric forcing data is selected to simulate the global surface hydrological quantities during the period 1948–2006and to investigate the spatial features of these quantities in response to climate change at the regional scales.The sensitivities of evaporation and runoff with respect to the dominant climate change factors(e.g.temperature and precipitation)derived from the concept of climate elasticity are introduced.Results show that evaporation has a declining trend with a rate of 0.7 mm per decade,while runoff shows a weak increasing trend of 0.15 mm per decade over the global land surface.Analyses of the hotspots in the hydrological cycle indicate that the spatial distributions for evaporation and runoff are similar over many areas in central Asia,Australia,and southern South America,but differ largely in high latitudes.It is also found that,the evaporation hotspots in arid regions are mainly associated with the changes in precipitation.Our sensitive analysis suggests that the hydrological quantities show a rather complicated spatial dependency of response of the water cycle to the different climate factors(temperature and precipitation).     

Global mean temperature changes during the last millennium

A synthetic study is made on the global or hemispheric mean temperature series for the last millennium worked out by Mann et al., Jones et al., Crowley and Lowery, and Briffa. The global mean temperature series reconstructed by using proxy data at 30 sites by Wang et al. and simulations from AD 1000 to 2000 by energy balance model are described and compared with the series of others. Wang's series gives greater variability and shows the highest correlation coefficient (0.83) with the simulation results. Uncertainties in the reconstructions and simulations are discussed. The errors in reconstructing a global mean temperature series according to 30 sites as used in the research are estimated. Wang's series indicate that temperature average for the 11th century is higher than the mean of the last millennium. It infers that the Medieval Warm Period predominated to some extent over the globe. However, the 20th century is no doubt the warmest century during the last millennium.     

Mathematical model of solidification for round CC billets

A coupled mathematical model was established to simulate the whole solidification process of round billet continuous casting for wheel steel using piecewise linear functions of heat flux density in the mold, the secondary cooling zone and the with-drawing-straightening zone. The calculated results were consistent with the measured data showing that the model accords with the practice. The surface temperature and the solidified shell thickness of round billets are more strongly influenced by casting speed than by casting temperature. The holding zones have effect on surface temperature, which is more obvious for the 450 mm round billet. The relation between casting temperature/speed and solidification end is expressed as a linear function. The solidification end is located after straightening machine.     

Estimating the outgoing longwave radiation from the FY-3B satellite visible infrared radiometer Channel 5 radiance observations

Based on the infrared radiation transfer model, the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and Channel 5 radiance of Fengyun-3B (FY-3B) satellite visible infrared radiometer (VIRR) were simulated for 3812 global soundings. Using regression analysis of the simulations, an inverse model, which connected the flux equivalent brightness temperature with the channel brightness temperature, was derived. By applying the model to the FY-3B VIRR L1 data, the global OLR data at the time of the passing of the FY-3B were processed. The quality of the data was validated by comparing it with that of the NOAA-18 satellite’s advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR). The validation results show root mean square errors in the range 10-13 W/M 2 when comparing the daily average OLR of the VIRR with that of the NOAA-18 AVHRR, and the correlation coefficients were in the range 0.97-0.98. The larger RMSE is mainly due to the different passing times of the two satellites for the specific locations on the Earth. An example of the OLR data and its preliminary applications are given.     

The impact of ocean warming on marine organisms

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolu- tion during the late eighteenth to the early nineteenth centuries, there has been rapidly increasing release of greenhouse gases, notably CO〉 into the atmosphere. As a consequence of this atmospheric change, the Earth＇s average surface temperature has increased by approxi- mately 0.6 ℃ over the last 100 years. The rate of release of greenhouse gases continues to increase, and global surface temperature rose by approximately 0.2 ℃ per decade in the last 30 years, a rate that is greater than at any other time during the last 1,000 years. The wide-ranging effects of these increases in greenhouse gases and temperature on the biosphere are subject to intense scientific study. Much has been learned, but much more needs to be elucidated, if we are to predict how terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems will be affected by global change. This brief review focuses on the marine environment and offers a concise summary of some of the important advances in our knowledge about the impacts of global change, including physical and chemical changes of the ocean, as well as the impact of ocean warming on marine organisms. Our analysis also points out areas where critical new information is needed if we are to predict the future of marine ecosystems in a warming world with accuracy.     

A quasi-geostrophic wavelet-spectrum model for barotropic atmosphere and its numerical solution

A quasi-geostrophic wavelet-spectrum model of barotropic atmosphere has been constructed by wavelet-Galerkin method with the periodic orthogonal wavelet bases. In this study a wavelet grid-spectrum transform method is designed to decrease the tremendous computation of the nonlinear interaction term in the model, and a two-dimensional Helmholtz equation from the model in a wavelet spectrum form is derived, and a solution with high precision under the periodic boundary condition is obtained. The numerical investigation manifests that the wavelet-spectrum model (WSM) could keep on running for a long time under the forcing of heating and topography. Although its numerical solution is compatible with the grid model (GM), the WSM is of a higher precision and faster convergence rate than GM's. A stationary solution comes forth when the model is forced only by the surface heating, whereas a quasi-periodic oscillation with a period about 15 days appears as considering the topography in the model. The latter oscillation, to some extent, is very similar to the Rossby index cycle of atmosphere over middle and high latitudes.     

Classification of vegetation in North Tibet Plateau based on MODIS time-series data

Based on the 16d-composite MODIS （moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer）-NDVI（normalized difference vegetation index） time-series data in 2004, vegetation in North Tibet Plateau was classified and seasonal variations on the pixels selected from different vegetation type were analyzed. The Savitzky-Golay filtering algorithm was applied to perform a filtration processing for MODIS-NDVI time-series data. The processed time-series curves can reflect a real variation trend of vegetation growth. The NDVI time-series curves of coniferous forest, high-cold meadow, high-cold meadow steppe and high-cold steppe all appear a mono-peak model during vegetation growth with the maximum peak occurring in August. A decision-tree classification model was established according to either NDVI time-series data or land surface temperature data. And then, both classifying and processing for vegetations were carried out through the model based on NDVI time-series curves. An accuracy test illustrates that classification results are of high accuracy and credibility and the model is conducive for studying a climate variation and estimating a vegetation production at regional even global scale.     

A numerical study on nonlinear propagation and short-term variability of the migrating diurnal and semidiurnal tides

By using a three-dimensional fully nonlinear numerical model in spherical coordinates and taking the linear steady solutions of the migrating diurnal and semidiurnal tides in January from the Global-Scale Wave Model （GSWM） as the initial values, we simulate the linear and nonlinear propagations of the migrating diurnal and semidiurnal tides in the atmosphere from the ground to the lower thermosphere. A comparison of our simulations with the results of GSWM is also presented. The simulation results show that affected by the nonlinearity, the migrating diurnal and semidiurnal tides propagating in the middle and upper atmosphere exhibit evident short-term variability. The nonlinear interactions between the migrating tides and the background atmosphere can obviously alter the background wind and temperature fields, which suggests that the nonlinear propagations of the migrating diurnal and semidiurnal tides impact significantly on the transient dynamical and thermal structures of the background middle and upper atmosphere and the nonlinear effect is an important cause of the difference between the results of GSWM and observations.     

Precise positioning of the Chang’E-3 lunar lander using a kinematic statistical method

A kinematic statistical method is proposed to determine the position for Chang’E-3(CE-3) lunar lander.This method uses both ranging and VLBI measurements to the lander for a continuous arc,combing with precise knowledge about the motion of the moon as provided by planetary ephemeris,to estimate the lander’s position on the lunar surface with high accuracy.Accuracy analyses are carried out with simulation data using the software developed at Shanghai Astronomical Observatory in this study to show that measurement errors will dominate the position accuracy.Application of lunar digital elevation model(DEM) as constraints in the lander positioning is also analyzed.Simulations show that combing range/doppler and VLBI data,single epoch positioning accuracy is at several hundred meters level,but with ten minutes data accumulation positioning accuracy is able to be achieved with several meters.Analysis also shows that the information given by DEM can provide constraints in positioning,when DEM data reduce a 3-dimensional positioning problem to 2-dimensional.Considering the Sinus Iridum,CE-3 lander’s planned landing area,has been observed with dedicated details during the CE-1 and CE-2 missions,and its regional DEM model accuracy may be higher than global models,which will certainly support CE-3’s lander positioning.     

Reducing the climate shift in a new coupled model

Climate drift refers to spurious long-term changes that may be inherent in coupled models when external forcing factors are fixed. Understanding the sources of this drift and tuning the drift are crucial for obtaining reasonable simulations from coupled models. To prepare for the upcoming Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, a new coupled model has been constructed based on the Community Earth System Model and the Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG version 2. However, the surface temperature predicted by the new model is too underestimated, and this underestimation is caused by a type of climate drift, i.e., ‘‘initial shock.’’ This study analyzes the source of the cold surface temperature from the perspective of energy balance and attempts to reduce the surface temperature drift by tuning the relative humidity threshold for low cloud.     

“Climate effect” of the northeast cold vortex and its influences on Meiyu

The Northeast Cold Vortex (NECV) is an important weather system in the middle and high latitudes in East Asia. Its time scale is synoptic, yet the frequent activities of NECV have significant "climate effect" which influences not only the monthly temperature in the lower troposphere in Northeast China but also the Meiyu rainfall in East Asia. On the basis of ERA-40 reanalysis data provided by ECMWF, the "climate effect" of NECV and its relationship with Meiyu in East Asia are studied. It is shown that there is significant correlation between NECV during the Meiyu period and rainfall amount: strong NECV corresponds to more Meiyu rainfall and weak NECV corresponds to less rainfall. In strong NECV years, the dry and cold air from the north is led to the south by NECV, converges with the lower-level warm and wet southwesterly on the north verge of Meiyu region, thus forms an unstable stratification of "upper dryness and lower wetness" . Triggered by ascending motion, the Meiyu rainfall amount is more than usual. It is on the contrary in weak NECV years. The anomalous SST in north Pacific in the previ-ous year may be a factor that results in the anomalous NECV at Meiyu period. The land-sea thermal contrast in summer facilitates NECV, while that in winter inhibits NECV. All of the above provide a meaningful result for the short-term climate prediction of NECV and Meiyu.     

Decadal change of the East Asian summer monsoon and its related surface temperature in Asia-Pacific during 1880–2004

The East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） and its related change of surface temperature in the past century were not clearly ad- dressed due to absence of atmospheric reanalysis data before 1948. On the benchmark of station-observed sea level pressure （SLP） in China, we utilized multiple SLP datasets and evaluated their qualities in measuring the SLP-based EASM index （EASMI）. It is found that the EASMI based on the SLP of the Hadley center version 2 （HadSLP2） has shown the best performance on the inter- annual and decadal time scales. Instead of showing a linear weakening trend pointed out by the previous study, the EASMI has likely exhibited the decadal variability, characterized by weakened trends during 1880-1906, 1921-1936, and 1960-2004, and with enhanced trends during 1906-1921 and 1936-1960, respectively. Corresponding to the weakened and enhanced periods of EASMI since the 1920s, the surface air temperature （SAT） index （SATI） averaged in eastern China has likely shown a warming and a cooling trend, respectively. However, the decadal abrupt transitions between the two indices do not occur concurrently, which results in a weak correlation between two indices on the decadal time scale. Further analysis indicates that there are four key regions where the SAT is significantly correlated with the EASMI, suggesting the joint impact of surface temperature in Asia-Pacific on the EASM during 1880-2004. In which, the decadal change of SAT near the Lake Baikal plays an important role in the linear trends of the EASM before and after 1960.     

Calibration of the U 37 K′ index of long-chain alkenones with the in-situ water temperature in Lake Qinghai in the Tibetan Plateau

Long-chain alkenones (LCAs) can potentially be used as indicators to understand past variations in lacustrine environments.Previous research has suggested that the relationship between the temperature and the unsaturation index of LCAs should be calibrated individually,because of the possible variations in the alkenone-producing algal species in the lacustrine environment.In this work,we have calibrated U37K’ of water filter samples against the in-situ water temperature in Lake Qinghai,Tibetan Plateau.There are significant relationships between U37K’ and the water temperature,a non-linear relationship was derived.Because the U37K’ values did not respond sensitively at lower temperatures,we suggested that a quadratic regression (U37K’ =0.0011×T2-0.0201×T+0.1959,n=15,r2=0.74) was appropriate than linear regression to represent the relationship between the in-situ temperatures and U37K’.Meanwhile,the U37K correlation relationship was not more significant than U37K’ index in our study.Because of the C37:4 effects by salinity change,we suggest U37K is not as robust as the U37K’ index as a temperature proxy,at least for the salt lake in the Tibetan Plateau.The calibration of the U37K’ index in this work has provided a new understanding of historic climatic changes in the Tibetan Plateau.