Quarterly GPPA earnings data: Time-series properties and predictive ability results in the airlines industry

This paper provides preliminary results regarding the impact of general purchasing power adjustments (GPPA) on quarterly earnings for 24 firms from the airlines industry. Findings indicated that GPPA transformations do not substantially alter the time-series properties of quarterly earnings data. Two Box-Jenkins models, (100) × (100) and (100) × (110) were identified as possible parsimonious models for the airlines industry. It is recommended that these structures be considered as viable candidates for earnings expectations models in market studies testing for informational content of GPPA earnings. The predictive findings demonstrated that predictions of historical cost quarterly earnings were significantly more accurate than GPPA predictions for four of the five horizons tested.     

Short term load forecasting in electric power systems: A comparison of ARMA models and extended wiener filtering

On-line prediction of electric load in the buses of the EHV grid of a power generation and transmission system is basic information required by on-line procedures for centralized advanced dispatching of power generation. This paper presents two alternative approaches to on-line short term forecasting of the residual component of the load obtained after the removal of the base load from a time series of total load. The first approach involves the use of stochastic ARMA models with time-varying coefficients. The second consists in the use of an extension of Wiener filtering due to Zadeh and Ragazzini. Real data representing a load process measured in an area of Northern Italy and simulated data reproducing a non-stationary process with known characteristics constitute the basis of a numerical comparison allowing one to determine under which conditions each method is more appropriate.     

Relative accuracy of judgemental and extrapolative methods in forecasting annual earnings

This paper identifies and analyses previously published studies on annual earnings forecasts. Comparisons of forecasts produced by management, analysts, and extrapolative techniques indicated that: (1) management forecasts were superior to professional analyst forecasts (the mean absolute percentage errors were 15.9 and 17.7, respectively, based on five studies using data from 1967–1974) and (2) judgemental forecasts (both management and analysts) were superior to extrapolation forecasts on 14 of 17 comparisons from 13 studies using data from 1964–1979 (the mean absolute percentage errors were 21.0 and 28.4 for judgement and extrapolation, respectively). These conclusions, based on recent research, differ from those reported in previous reviews, which commented on less than half of the studies identified here.     

The Effects of Disaggregation on Forecasting Nonstationary Time Series

This paper focuses on the effects of disaggregation on forecast accuracy for nonstationary time series using dynamic factor models. We compare the forecasts obtained directly from the aggregated series based on its univariate model with the aggregation of the forecasts obtained for each component of the aggregate. Within this framework (first obtain the forecasts for the component series and then aggregate the forecasts), we try two different approaches: (i) generate forecasts from the multivariate dynamic factor model and (ii) generate the forecasts from univariate models for each component of the aggregate. In this regard, we provide analytical conditions for the equality of forecasts. The results are applied to quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) data of several European countries of the euro area and to their aggregated GDP. This will be compared to the prediction obtained directly from modeling and forecasting the aggregate GDP of these European countries. In particular, we would like to check whether long‐run relationships between the levels of the components are useful for improving the forecasting accuracy of the aggregate growth rate. We will make forecasts at the country level and then pool them to obtain the forecast of the aggregate. The empirical analysis suggests that forecasts built by aggregating the country‐specific models are more accurate than forecasts constructed using the aggregated data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Deletion diagnostics for transformations of time series

Deletion diagnostics are derived for the effect of individual observations on the estimated transformation of a time series. The paper uses the modified power transformation of Box and Cox to provide a parametric family of transformations. Inference about the transformation parameter is made through regression on a constructed variable. The effect of deletion of observations on residuals and on the estimate of the regression parameter are obtained. Index plots of the diagnostic quantities are shown to be highly informative. Structural time series modelling is used, so that the results readily extend to inference about regression on other explanatory variables.     

Estimation and testing of time-varying coefficient regression models in the presence of linear restrictions

A linear regression model with random walk coefficients is extended to allow for linear restrictions between the coefficients to be satisfied at each point in time. Estimation in this model is shown to be no more involved than estimation in the standard model. It is also demonstrated how, after a slight modification to the testing problem, classical test procedures may be applied to the problem of testing for such restrictions. The performance of the Lagrange Multiplier test for a variety of different restrictions is then investigated via simulation. An empirical application involving testing for homogeneity in a random walk coefficient version of the AIDS model is given.     

The decomposition of forecast in seasonal arima models

This paper presents a procedure to break down the forecast function of a seasonal ARIMA model in terms of its permanent and transitory components. Both depend on the initial values at the forecast origin, but their structures are fixed and independent of this origin. The permanent component is an estimate of the long-run projection of the corresponding economic variable and the transitory element describes the approach towards the permanent one. Within the permanent component a distinction is made between the factors that depend on the initial conditions of the system and those that are deterministic. The procedure is compared to other methods presented in the literature and illustrated in an example.     

Estimation and prediction under structural instability: The case of the U.S. pulp and paper market

The objectives of this paper are: first, to show empirically the relevance of using adaptive estimation techniques over more traditional estimation approaches when economic systems are believed to be structurally unstable over time; and secondly, to compare in an empirical framework two adaptive estimation techniques: Kalman filtering and the Carbone–Longini filter. For that purpose, an econometric model for the U.S. pulp and paper market is examined under the assumption of structural instability and, hence, constitutes the basis for comparing forecasting performances and estimation accuracy achieved by each technique. A version of Kalman filtering, modified in line with the basic idea of ‘tracking’ characterizing the Carbone–Longini filter, is also presented and applied. The analysis of the results shows that it may be worth using adapative estimation methods to estimate structurally unstable models, even if there is no prior knowledge about the patterns of variation of the parameters. Also, it shows the Carbone–Longini filter and Kalman filtering as being complementary estimation techniques. An estimation/forecasting methodology involving a sequential application mode of these two techniques is suggested.     

Impact of neuropathic pain on the gene expression and activity of cytochrome P450side-chain-cleavage in sensory neural networks

Development of efficient therapy against chronic and stubborn pains requires fundamental identification of adequate cellular and molecular targets. This study combined cellular, molecular and biochemical approaches to investigate the gene expression and enzymatic activity of cytochrome P450side-chain-cleavage (P450scc) in spinal neural networks under normal and neuropathic pain states. P450scc is the key onset enzyme for steroidogenesis in endocrine glands and for neurosteroid biosynthesis in nerve cells. The P450scc gene was over-expressed in spinal and supra-spinal networks during neuropathic pain provoked by sciatic nerve ligature. Plasticity was observed in P450scc cellular distribution in pain circuits and its activity also increased inducing in vivo, hyper-secretion of pregnenolone and allopregnanolone which strongly stimulates type A receptors for g-aminobutyric acid, a pivotal neurotransmitter involved in pain modulation. These results, by establishing a direct link between neuropathic pain and neuroactive steroid formation in the nervous system, open new perspectives for chronic-pain modulation by endogenous neurosteroids.Received 8 June 2004; received after revision 2 July 2004; accepted 13 July 2004     

A unified view of statistical forecasting procedures

A large number of statistical forecasting procedures for univariate time series have been proposed in the literature. These range from simple methods, such as the exponentially weighted moving average, to more complex procedures such as Box–Jenkins ARIMA modelling and Harrison–Stevens Bayesian forecasting. This paper sets out to show the relationship between these various procedures by adopting a framework in which a time series model is viewed in terms of trend, seasonal and irregular components. The framework is then extended to cover models with explanatory variables. From the technical point of view the Kalman filter plays an important role in allowing an integrated treatment of these topics.     

2007年SSCI收录香港特区论文的统计分析

在关注自然科学的同时也应该关注社会科学,本文通过对香港特区1289篇论文,运用计量学的方法,从学科、机构、发表期刊、被引用次数等多个角度,详细分析香港特区社会科学论文的现状,本文还对所涉及的3793名作者,结合TDA分析软件对其论文合著情况做进一步分析。     

21世纪冶金和材料制备学的发展及对策

21世纪中冶金学及材料制备学的发展在于两个方向。其一是信息论冶金学和材料制备学;其二是在若干外加物理场综合作用下的7台金和材料制备过程。前者意在创建冶金学及材料制备学的一个新的高度。所以,由基础研究到过程控制有5个平台包含在此概念之中。关于第二个方向,本文讨论了超强磁场、脉冲电磁场、脉冲电流、超声波、等离子体以及离子选择性高效透过膜的应用可能性。对企业的发展提出了一个建议：应懂得技术储备的重要。     

The role of muscle in determining growth and size in teleost fish

Summary Rapid growth to large size in fish results from a sustained recruitment of new fibres into their axial series of myomeres. Cessation of recruitment at a small fish size leads to slow growth and a small final size of the fish. Fibre growth dynamics of fishes evidently govern growth and size through fibres' surface area to length ratios, which control their nutrient assimilation rates.     

The involvement of noradrenaline, 5-hydroxytryptamine and acetylcholine in imipramine-induced seizures in mice

The influence of some noradrenergic, 5-hydroxytryptaminergic and cholinergic agents on imipramine-induced seizures were investigated in mice. DL-threo-3,4-dihydroxyphenylserine (DOPS) and pargyline significantly potentiated imipramine-induced seizures. Phentolamine and prazosin significantly attenuated seizures elicited by imipramine and significantly attenuated the seizure-enhancing effect of DOPS. -Methyl-p-tyrosine and reserpine significantly attenuated seizures induced by imipramine. Disulfiram significantly protected mice against imipramine-induced seizures. However, DOPS significantly potentiated seizures induced by imipramine in disulfiram-pretreated animals. Clonidine effectively protected mice against imipramine-induced seizures. Idazoxan, on the other hand, significantly protentiatied seizures induced by imipramine and significantly antagonised the protective effect of clonidine against the seizures. 5-HTP, PCPA, cyproheptadine, mianserin, ketanserin and trazodone did not affect imipramine-induced seizures to any significant extent. Physostigmine antagonised seizures induced by imipramine while atropine significantly potentiated the seizures, and significantly attenuated the protective effect of physostigmine against the seizures. These data suggest that enhancement and attenuation of central noradrenergic and cholinergic neurotransmissions respectively, and not 5-HT mechanisms, may underlie imipramine-induced seizures in mice.     

The notion of nature in chemistry

If nature is by definition the object of the natural sciences, then the dichotomy ‘natural’ versus ‘chemical’, held by both chemists and nonchemists, suggests an idiosyncrasy of chemistry. The first part of the paper presents a selective historical analysis of the main notions of nature in chemistry, as developed in early Christian views of chemical crafts, alchemy, iatrochemistry, mechanical philosophy, organic chemistry, and contemporary drug research. I argue that the dichotomy as well as quasi-moral judgments of chemistry have been based on static and teleological notions of nature throughout history and that chemists, unlike physicists, have neglected the dynamic notion of nature. The second part provides a philosophical criticism of the former notions and argues for the latter as well as for an explicit discourse about values in chemistry.     

美国科技发展模式特征及对中国的启示

科技发展模式是对国家科技发展的高度概括与总结,选择合理的科技发展模式是实现国家整体发展战略的重要组成部分。本文深入剖析了美国科技发展模式的基本特点及形成条件,为我国制定21世纪的中长期科技发展战略提供了一些的意见与建议。     

台湾地区SCI论文数在世界中所处的位置及统计分析

台湾的科技发展得到了世界越来越多的关注,本文通过SCI收录台湾地区的科技论文,从发表机构、学科、参考文献以及台湾地区科技论文的被引用等情况,介绍台湾地区的科技论文产出情况,以便了解台湾地区在世界科技中的地位和影响。     

稻田春秋玉米产量形成特点比较研究

以半紧凑型迟熟玉米杂交种“登海11”为材料,2007年在长沙和永安两点分别做了稻田春玉米和稻田秋玉米不同施氮水平和密度二因子处理试验。试验结果表明：稻田春、秋玉米均随密度和施氮量的增加产量增加,但中高密度下产量差异不显著,三个氮肥处理下的产量差异均不显著。春玉米主要通过增加穗数和粒重来增加产量,而秋玉米主要通过增加穗敷来增加产量;秋玉米营养期生长天数少于春玉米,使得秋玉米总生物产量和最大叶面积指数较低,从而造成秋玉米平均产量低于春玉米。     

The influence of chronic nicotine treatment on stress-induced gastric ulceration and emptying rate in rats

Ten-day treatment with nicotine, (5, 25 or 50 g/ml drinking water) dose-dependently intensified gastric ulceration induced by cold-restraint, and emptying rate. Stomach contractions produced by graded doses of bethanechol i.v. were elevated further by nicotine treatment. It is suggested that chronic nicotine administration produces hypersensitivity of the gastric muscarinic receptors; stomach hypermotility contributes to the ulcer-worsening action of the alkaloid