Awareness and use of forecasting techniques in british industry

The paper summarizes results of a mail survey of the use of formal forecasting techniques in British manufacturing companies. It appraises the state of awareness of particular techniques and the extent to which they are used in various functional applications. The extent to which the forecasts generated by the techniques influence company action is assessed; and the reasons for the non-use of particular techniques examined. The paper concludes that although an increasing number of companies appreciate the importance of forecasting, the methods used are predominantly naïve and few companies are taking steps to improve the situation through using alternative techniques or through computerizing established techniques.     

A comparative evaluation of objective and subjective weather forecasts in the united states

This paper is concerned primarily with the evaluation and comparison of objective and subjective weather forecasts. Operational forecasts of three weather elements are considered: (1) probability forecasts of precipitation occurrence, (2) categorical (i.e. non-probabilistic) forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures and (3) categorical forecasts of cloud amount. The objective forecasts are prepared by numerical-statistical procedures, whereas the subjective forecasts are based on the judgements of individual forecasters. In formulating the latter, the forecasters consult information from a variety of sources, including the objective forecasts themselves. The precipitation probability forecasts are found to be both reliable and skilful, and evaluation of the temperature/cloud amount forecasts reveals that they are quite accurate/skilful. Comparison of the objective and subjective forecasts of precipitation occurrence indicates that the latter are generally more skilful than the former for shorter lead times (e.g. 12–24 hours), whereas the two types of forecasts are of approximately equal skill for longer lead times (e.g. 36–48 hours). Similar results are obtained for the maximum and minimum temperature forecasts. Objective cloud amount forecasts are more skilful than subjective cloud amount forecasts for all lead times. Examination of trends in performance over the last decade reveals that both types of forecasts for all three elements increased in skill (or accuracy) over the period, with improvements in objective forecasts equalling or exceeding improvements in subjective forecasts. The role and impact of the objective forecasts in the subjective weather forecasting process are discussed in some detail. The need to conduct controlled experiments and other studies of this process, with particular reference to the assimilation of information from different sources, is emphasized. Important characteristics of the forecasting system in meteorology are identified, and they are used to describe similarities and differences between weather forecasting and forecasting in other fields. Acquisition of some of these characteristics may be beneficial to other forecasting systems.     

升高CO2浓度和温度对针叶林的影响以及在川西亚高山针叶林研究中的展望

以CO2浓度和温度升高为主要特征的全球气候变化受到了世界各国科学家们的普遍关注。目前已经有大量关于森林生态系统对全球变化响应的研究报道和综述性文章,涉及分子、生理生态、种群和群落生态以及区域和全球尺度等微观和宏观领域的研究内容,因而要想对森林生态系统对全球变化的响应研究进行全面的综述是相当困难的。因此,本文只简要评述了森林生态系统对升高CO2浓度和温度响应研究中的诸如CO2浓度和温度升高对森林生长和生产力的影响、森林生态系统物种组成和多样性对升高CO2浓度和温度的响应、植被变化与全球碳循环的互动以及气候变化与森林生态系统生物地球化学循环的关系等几个热点问题。川西亚高山针叶林区为我国的第二大林区,地处高山峡谷地带,是全球变化的敏感地带。相对简单的植物群落结构、较低的物种丰富度和多样性、巨大的冷冻土壤碳库、不同演替阶段和功能的植物群落组合以及分布于林线附近的邻接效应等为研究针叶林系统对升高CO2浓度和温度的响应提供了良好的天然实验室。针叶林生产力、植物群落物种组成和多样性以及土壤碳氮过程等对升高CO2浓度和温度的响应对于预测未来气候变化下针叶林系统的生态过程具有重要意义。     

咸淡水交替淋溶下土壤盐分运移试验

为确定咸淡水交替灌溉后土壤盐分的运移规律，采用2g／L，4g／L两种矿化度的咸水分别与淡水连续、交替淋溶室内土柱，初步研究了咸淡水交替淋溶下土壤盐分的变化规律。研究结果表明：咸淡水交替淋溶下土壤表层盐分逐渐下移，两个试验处理的土柱都出现积盐情况，且4g／L时的积盐量大于2g／L时的积盐量，土壤溶液中Na^＋，Ca^2＋的分布与EC值的变化规律基本一致，在此条件下盐分的增加没有引起土壤的碱化，灌水结束后，两个试验处理的土壤溶液EC值都小于4dS／m，在作物耐盐的范围内，可推广应用到大田咸淡水交替灌溉中。