Variations in the equilibrium line altitude of Urumqi Glacier No.1, Tianshan Mountains, over the past 50 years

The glacier ELA is one of the important parameters reflecting climate change.Based on observations of the equilibrium line altitude(ELA) of Urumqi Glacier No.1 in the Tianshan Mountains,we established a statistical model between ELA and its major influencing factors,warm season air temperature(air temperature averages for May,June,July and August) and annual precipitation.Result showed that,warm season air temperature was the leading climatic factor influencing ELA variations.The glacier ELA ascends(descends) 61.7 m when warm season air temperature increases(decreases) by 1°C,and ascends(descends) 13.1 m when cold season precipitation decreases(increases) by 10%.In the period 1959-2008,the glacier ELA showed a general increasing trend,ascending108 m and reaching its highest altitude in 2008 at 4168 m a.s.l.,close to the glacier summit.If future climate is similar to that in the past 50 years,the ELA of Urumqi Glacier No.1 will still ascend with a speed of 2.16 m/a.However,If future climate is similar to that in the period 2000-2008,the ELA will still ascend with a speed of 6.5 m/a before it is stable.As a result of ELA variation,the accumulation area ratio(AAR) of the glacier showed a decreasing trend during the past 50 years.     

A distributed surface energy and mass balance model and its application to a mountain glacier in China

Based on the field observations on Qiyi Glacier during the warm season of 2007, using a digital elevation model (DEM, 15 m resolution), we developed a distributed surface energy- and mass-balance model with an hourly resolution. The model described the effect of topography on shortwave solar radiation, and used a new parameterization for glacier albedo. The model was applied to Qiyi Glacier in the Qilian Mountain, China, for the period 20 : 00 30 June to 12 : 00 10 October 2007, to simulate the firn-line changes, the temporal and spatial variations of mass balance, and the glacial meltwater runoff. The results indicated that the patterns of altitudinal profile of glacier mass-balance were affected mainly by the altitudinal profile of albedo, and the status of the glacier mass balance was influenced directly by the values of albedo. The parameter sensitivity test showed that the model was sensitive to the air temperature lapse rate and precipitation gradient, and also sensitive to the threshold temperature for solid/liquid precipitation. Furthermore, the climate sensitivity test showed that the mass balance was more sensitive to air temperature than precipitation, and the response of mass balance to air temperature change was nonlinear while the response to precipitation change linearly. The negative mass balance trend of the glacier can not be reversed when precipitation increases by 20% and meanwhile air temperature rises by 1°C.     

Glacier changes during the last forty years in the Tarim Interior River basin, northwest China

By comparing digitized glacier outlines from the Chinese Glacier Inventory (CGI) during the 1960s–1970s and Landsat Enhance Thematic Mapper (ETM+) images from 1999 to 2001, we investigated changes for about 7665 alpine glaciers among 11665 glaciers in seven sub-basins of the Tarim Interior River basin (TIRB). The results showed that the total glacier area was reduced by 3.3% from the 1960s/ 1970s to 1999/2001 and area losses for 1–5 km2 glaciers accounted for 48.3% of the total glacier area loss in the TIRB. However, the glacier area reductions varied from 0.7% to 7.9% among the seven sub-basins of the TIRB during the study period. The glacier area changing with altitude showed that the maximum contribution of area shrinkage occurred at 4900–5400 m. Data from 25 meteorological stations in the TIRB showed increases in both the annual mean air temperature and annual precipitation during 1960–2000. This indicates that the glacier shrinkage in the TIRB over the last 40 years was largely due to regional climate warming that enhanced glacier ablation and overcame the effects of increased precipitation on the glacier mass balance.     

Response of Zhadang Glacier runoff in Nam Co Basin,Tibet, to changes in air temperature and precipitation form

This paper describes 2007/2008 inter-annual changes in runoff from the Zhadang Glacier located on the northern slope of Nyainqêntanglha Range, Tibet, and analyzes their causes. Precipitation increased by 17.9% in summer months of 2008 compared with the same period in 2007, drainage basin runoff decreased by 33.3%, and glacial meltwater decreased by 53.8%. Change in positive accumulated air temperature explained approximately half of the inter-annual difference in glacial meltwater using a de-gree-day model. This suggests that the glacier is extremely sensitive to changes in air temperature. Energy balance analysis showed that change in glacier surface albedo, considered to be caused by difference in precipitation form, resulted in the large inter-annual difference in glacial meltwater. It was shown statistically that precipitation form in the summer months of 2007 was mainly rainfall which comprised 71.5% of total precipitation, while during the same period in 2008 rainfall accounted for 30.7%, with the majority of precipitation falling as snow. Precipitation form should be considered an independent factor when analyzing glacier sensitivity to climate change or forecasting the runoff from certain glaciers.     

喜马拉雅山亚东?康马段现代冰川平衡线高度、分布特征及影响因素

利用《中国第二次冰川编目》的数据和卫星图, 结合野外地貌观测, 探讨喜马拉雅山亚东?康马段的冰川平衡线高度(ELA)、分布特征及影响因素。结果表明, 研究区现代冰川平均ELA 为5717 m, 库拉岗日地区稍高, 为5840~5957 m, 白马林岗日地区较低, 为5333~5373 m, 反映气候与地形大势对冰川ELA的控制。此外, 山脉的走向、坡向、冰川地形坡度以及冰川表面冰碛覆盖、雪崩等对冰川ELA有不同程度的影响。     

Changes in physical features of Glacier No. 1 of the Tianshan Mountains in response to climate change

This study analyzes the changes in glacier zones and snow composition of Glacier No.1 in the Tianshan Mountains of China since 1961,and their possible relations with climate.It is found that precipitation dominated the snow composition and that air temperature and precipitation controlled the distribution of glacier zones,but interannual change in precipitation had a relatively large effect on glacier zones and snow composition during 1963–1981 (P10) and 1963–1989 (P11).However,during 1982–2007 (P20) and 19...     

A new type of ice formation zone found in the Himalayas

Ice formation was studied on the Dasuopu Glacier located in the Mount Xixabangma (28°23′ N, 85°43'E) in the Himalayas. Snow pits and shallow ice cores are analyzed to reveal ice formation process. The results show that the ice formation process, or in other words, the process of densitifica-tion, on the col (7 000 m a.s. I.) of the Dasuopu Glacier is a stable, slow and gradual process. The snow-ice transformation on the glacier is estimated to be 30-40 m below the surface. The temperature on the Dasuopu Glacier is very low (～ - 14℃ at 10 m) and similar to that in polar type ice cap. We, therefore, speculate that the process of snow-ice transformation is undertaken under snow pressure, and that there is a percolation zone on the Dasuopu Glacier. The high altitude of the col and monsoon snow fall accompnied by heavy cloud and high albedo favorite the percolation zone formation.     

Quick ice mass loss and abrupt retreat of the maritime glaciers in the Kangri Karpo Mountains,southeast Tibetan Plateau

The maritime glaciers are sensitive to climate change because of high annual precipitation and high air temperature in the region. A combined comprehensive study was carried out based on glacier mass balance observation, GPS-based glacier terminus position survey, glacier Ground Penetrating Radar, topography maps and RS satellite images in the Kangri Karpo Mountains, Southeast Tibet. The study revealed a strong ice mass loss and quick glacier retreat since the 1970s. Ata Glacier, one glacier from the south slope of the Kangri Karpo Mountains, has formed a 6-km-long terminal moraine zone at the end of the glacier since the 1970s, and the accelerating retreat is largely due to the strong glacier surface melting. Mass balance study on the other four glaciers on the northern side of the Kangri Karpo Mountains shows that they are in large negative mass balance and the glaciers had retreated 15--19 m from May 2006 to May 2007. The in-situ glacier observation also shows that the glacier retreat is more obvious in small glaciers. The enhanced ice mass deficit caused by climate warming and the ongoing extinction of many small glaciers in this region could seriously affect the water resources, environ- ments, local climate and regional sustainable development in the near future.     

Numerical simulation of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 in the eastern Tianshan, central Asia from 2005 to 2070

Due to climate changes, most of the alpine glaciers have retreated dramatically during the past decades. Thus it is significant to predict the alpine glacier variability in the future for a better understanding of the impact of climate changes on water resource. In this paper, we perform the numerical simulation on Urumqi Glacier No.1 in the eastern Tianshan, central Asia (hereafter Glacier No.1 for short) by considering both the mass balance and ice flow. Given the shape of the Glacier No.1, the velocity of the glacier is obtained by solving a two-dimensional nonlinear Stokes equation and simulated result is in agreement with the observation. In order to predict the variability of Glacier No.1 in the next decades, a climatic scenario is constructed with a temperature rise rate as 0.17°C/10 a and precipitation as constant during the period of 2005-2070. The simulation shows that, the glacier terminus will retreat slowly and the glacier will thin dramatically before 2040, while after year 2040, the glacier terminus retreat will accelerate. This study confirms the increasing retreat rate of alpine glaciers under global warming.     

天山一号冰川地区气候要素的变化及其对冰川物质平衡的影响

通过对逐日气温、降水、流量和相对湿度等实测数据进行小波分析,提取了天山乌鲁木齐河源一号冰川地区近10年来的气候变化特征.在此基础上,运用灰熵关联分析方法进一步研究了冰川物质平衡量与不同气候要素的关联关系.结果显示:研究区气候要素在4d,16d,32d和64d尺度上的变化存在阶段性、周期性和弱趋势性三大特征;在较宽的时间尺度上,气温要素的极大值与极小值呈非对称性变化;1996-2004年期间,冰川物质平衡主要受气温类要素的影响;9-5月(物质平衡年)的降水量是冰川物质积累的重要来源.     

贵阳市近40年气候变化趋势分析

利用贵阳市1961～2000年的气温，降水资料，应用统计方法分析了贵阳近40年的气候变化趋势。研究结果发现，贵阳气温有上升趋势，但是上升幅度较小。四季气温变化幅度不大，其中春季气温下降趋势在四季变化中最明显，冬季气温上升幅度最大。降水则呈微弱下降趋势，夏季降水上升，春季降水下降。在此基础上，进一步分析了贵阳从1961年以来的严重冷暖冬时间与多雨少雨年的出现规律．     

Mineral deformation and subglacial processes on ice-bedrock interface of Hailuogou Glacier

Hailuogou Glacier is located in a warm and humid maritime environment. It is large and moves very fast. The bottom of the glacier slides intensively and the temperature at the bottom approaches the pressure melting point. Therefore, there are abundant melting water and debris which act as effective ＂grinding tools＂ for glacial abrasion. Polarizing microscope is used to observe the mineral deformation characteristics on the ice-bedrock interface. It is found that feldspar, quartz, hornblende and biotite are exposed to deformation, fracture and chemical alteration to various extents. Bending deformation is common for biotite, due to their lattice characteristics, and the bending orientations are mostly the same as the glacier flow. Bending deformation also occurs in a few hornblendes. High-angle tension fracture and low-angle shear fracture are common for quartz and feldspar, some of them are totally crushed （mylonizations） due to their rigidity. Thus, all the abrasion, quarrying, subglacial water action and subglacial dissolution processes at the bottom of the glacier are verified at the micro-scale level. Mineral deformation and fracture are the basic subglacial erosion mechanisms. The abrasion thickness is 30-90 μm for each time and the average is 50 μm. Most of the debris are silt produced by glacial abrasion. The extent of mineral deformation and fracture decreases drastically downwards beneath the bedrock surface. The estimated erosion rate is about 2.2-11.4 mm/a, which is similar to that of other maritime alpine glaciers, smaller than that of large-scale piedmont glaciers in Alaska （10-30 mm/a）, and larger than that of continental glaciers （0.1-1.0 mm/a）. The type and size of a glacier are the main factors that influence its erosion rate.     

西藏普兰地区第四纪以来冰锯作用研究

为了验证西藏普兰地区冰川作用对地形演化的影响, 选取纳木那尼峰、喜马拉雅山和冈底斯山3个区域, 利用数字高程模型(DEM)数据和遥感影像, 对现代冰川与末次冰盛期(LGM)古冰川平衡线高度(ELA)、冰川作用区坡度与高程的关系以及冰川分布的高程频谱进行计算和分析。结果显示, 研究区内冰川剥蚀作用显著、坡度降低最明显的地带位于LGM古冰川平衡线附近, 并在一定程度上限制山脉的高度。根据冰川地貌特征参数和前人研究结果, 认为气候是影响冰锯作用的主要因素。冰期时, 研究区内西风急流南移, 风速增强, 降水量增多, 为冰川发育创造良好条件, 冰锯作用也增强。对于构造抬升强烈的山脉(如纳木那尼峰), 虽然冰锯作用得到加强, 但是构造抬升增加的山脉高度不会完全被冰锯作用抵消。     

一次低空急流影响下滇西地区冬季强降水天气分析

利用常规观测资料和大理边界层风廓线资料,对2008年1月26～27日低空急流影响下滇西地区冬季强降水天气进行分析.结果表明:南支槽是主要影响系统,槽前的西南低空急流一方面为强降水区输送源源不断的暖湿空气,另一方面在暴雨区产生强辐合,强降水发生在水汽通量散度小于-20×10-8 g.hPa-1.cm-2.s-1的区域,水汽辐合与辐散相伴出现,强降水落区与水汽通量大值区及全风速大值区有很好的对应关系.低空急流出现最强时低层辐合、高层辐散及垂直速度也达到最强;高低空急流的脉动对强降水有一定的指示意义,低空急流的脉动与强降水之间存在密切关系,高空急流较低空急流的下传明显提前2～3 h,低空西南急流向下扩展的同时,可能存在动量下传,引起低空扰动加强.     

初春雨转雪对冬小麦产量的影响——以河南许昌为例

应用Micaps3天气图资料、卫星云图,对许昌市2014年2月16—18日雨转雪天气过程进行诊断分析,对环流形势、水汽条件、动力、热力特征的分析结果表明:1前期主要是500 h Pa高空槽和700 h Pa切变线影响的稳定性降水,后期是850 h Pa回流冷空气不断补充堆积形成深厚的冷垫,低层偏东气流与中高层槽前的西南暖湿急流交汇形成回流降水形势.高低空的有力配合,冷暖空气的交汇为降水提供了较好的动力条件.冷空气侵入时段、气温下降速度、降水时间,都是初春降水性质发生改变的关键点.2这次雨转雪天气过程对越冬作物小麦生长特别有利,可以冻死土地中的害虫和虫卵,大大降低来年麦蜘蛛、吸浆虫,蚜虫等病虫害的发生几率,也对冬小麦纹枯病,赤霉病的滋生和蔓延起到抑制作用,使小麦越冬基数减小,提高了2014年冬小麦的产量.     

乌鲁木齐河流域气温特征分析

本文根据乌鲁木齐河流域气温观测资料,分析了气温的日、月、年变化的特点。并分析了气温随高程的变化,表明在不同季节和不同高度范围内气温递减率是不同的,提出了计算气温递减率的公式,为冰雪融水和蒸发计算提供了分析依据。     

Recent area and ice volume change of Kangwure Glacier in the middle of Himalayas

This paper calculated and evaluated the area and ice volume changes of Kangwure Glacier in Mt. Xixiabangma, middle of Himalayas in the past 3 decades, based on the field survey of glacier boundary position by differential GPS and glacier depth by Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR), together with the topographic map and remote sense data. The studied data showed that the Kangwure Glacier has experienced significant mass deficit since the 1970s, with 34.2% of area loss, 48.2% of ice volume loss and 7.5 m of average thickness decrease. This result revealed that the ice volume loss of Himalayan glaciers was more serious than expected. Analysis of meteorological data from two weather stations in the region of Mt. Xixiabangma, shows that the air temperature of this region has risen from the middle of the 20th century to the beginning of the 21st century. Significant retreat of Himalayas glacier driven by climatic warming will have a remarkable impact on hydrology and ecosystem.     

联合气象地温资料分析北京地区的气候变化

 利用1954—2006年北京地区0.8、1.6、3.2m深度的逐月平均地温资料,得到其年平均地温并与相应的气温数据进行对比,分析其变化规律。通过气候倾向率对比分析,初步给出了该地区50年来平均地温和气温的变化趋势,发现该地区的浅层地温和气温均有所增加,近年来增加幅度增大。小波分析发现,该地区浅层地温和气温同时存在约10年和15年多重周期变化特征,且均在20世纪70年代初和80年代末发生温度突变。利用世界气象组织判断气候异常的标准得到浅层地温和气温的温度异常年份。这些结果有助于从新的角度（气温联合浅层地温）分析北京地区的气候变化。     

未来5-7年邵阳气候进入“寒期多涝”的考量——以邵阳市与邵阳、邵东、新邵三县为例

以年平均气温的距平值,作为划分冷暖依据,讨论以邵阳市近60年资料为主,并结合邻近邵阳县、新邵县、邵东县近50年的相应冷暖变化趋势,得出邵阳市区冷暖变化与旱涝特征,即冷期多大洪大涝,暖期多大旱特旱.未来5-7年,湖南与邵阳市区,汛期雨量偏多,涝比旱重.今、明年,既要防洪,又要抗旱,各地要及早做好准备,战胜灾害.     

云南初春极端冷暖灾害事件的对比分析

利用云南1961～2009年2月的平均气温资料,采用异常指数对云南2008,2009年初春出现的极端低温雨雪冰冻和极端高温少雨干旱灾害事件做了空间分布、历史排位、冷暖异常趋势分析;利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了云南省2008年和2009年初春极端冷暖异常灾害事件天气成因.结果表明:2008年初春是近40年来的最冷年,2009年初春则是有气象记录以来的最暖年;云南初春东部平均气温从20世纪80年代以来有向暖异常演变的趋势,2000年以来,极端暖异常现象十分突出.北半球东亚中高纬500hPa高度距平场2008年2月呈"正负正"、2009年2月呈"负正负"的相反分布.乌山阻高异常偏强,冷空气活动频繁,南支槽异常偏强,导致2008年初春云南极端异常低温冰雪灾害;而乌山阻高偏弱,东亚大槽异常偏东,冷空气主体偏东,印度副高异常偏强,南支槽异常偏弱,导致云南2009年初春极端高温异常干旱灾害.