The Current Version of Emery's Open Systems Theory

There are variations on the idea of an open systems theory (OST) or socioecology. This paper deals with the "current" variant developed primarily by Fred Emery, or OST(E). It is "current" because that terminology acknowledges a continuing development of knowledge. OST(E) is heir to a long line of intellectual development known as the "thin red line" and can be distinguished from other variants by its adherence to that line of development. The paper outlines the state of the art of OST(E) and its historical relation to the thin rd line.     

Introducing an External Terminal Operator or Not? The Decision of Ports in a Duopoly Market

Facing with increasing competition, many ports are taking innovative approaches to improve productivity and profits. Among a variety of methods, introducing external terminal operators(ETOs) while the port acts as a landlord to collect "rents" from those operators for conducting terminal activities inside the port is regarded as an effective way and is commonly observed in practices.This paper analyzes the decisions of two competing ports about whether to introduce their respective ETOs using a three-stage non-cooperative game model when there already exists a port's self-operation terminal operator(STO). At the first stage, the two ports simultaneously decide whether to introduce an ETO. If a port decided to introduce an ETO, at the second stage, it will further decide the unit fee to charge from the ETO. At the third stage, the two ports and the introduced ETO(s) simultaneously decide their respective profit-maximizing output levels. The findings indicate the equilibrium is both ports will introduce their respective ETOs, but when the ports and ETOs are substitutable in the sense of having the same level of productivity, the equilibrium solution is only one port should introduce an ETO. And simulation results show that even if one of ETOs is inefficient this still hold true.     

基于系统动力学的港城耦合系统模型构建及仿真——以连云港为例

港城互动关系具有系统动力学耦合特征, 本文根据系统动力学原理和方法, 从港城系统特征、系统模型边界和系统要素因果关系出发, 建立港城耦合系统的SD模型, 解剖港城耦合系统多重反馈机理和各系统相互作用过程. 将模型用到江苏省连云港的港城耦合系统中, 并借助Vensim软件完成结构和量纲的一致性检验, 确定模型具有可靠性后, 选择投资贡献度、三产增加系数、 资源转化系数及资源利用系数等参数作为控制变量进行模型仿真. 结果表明, 连云港完成"十二五"发展规划目标, 实现港城可持续发展, 需要加大第三产业投入, 适度控制码头岸线资源利用率, 同时增加港口投资, 提升港口能力建设, 以适应战略地位提升的连云港港城发展需要.     

QUEUEING NETWORK MODELING AND ANALYSIS IN THE DESIGN AND EVALUATION OF SEAPORT SYSTEMS

1.IntroductionDlletothecapacityconstraintsacttiledeepwaterPiel.s,1llztllyI)ortsarefacinglongdelaysoftilea,rrivingstealllsllil)sarrivingfyolntilePad(~ifi(.oceitll.Ashot,e(lillYlle,etal.[1].ifports}'stellllllllst,l)eplannedtosatisfybotllill(>steamshipcolnpa…     

基于一带一路战略评估的中国沿海节点港口与港城发展策略研究

客观评价"一带一路"战略对沿海节点城市经济发展和港城发展的政策效应,对其本身实施和完善,以及节点地区经济与港城协同发展具有重要意义.本文首先量化中国八个沿海节点地区的港口区位商、辐射强度与港城协同度,以此表征节点地区港口发展水平.在此基础上,利用DID模型评价"一带一路"战略对沿海节点地区经济发展和港城发展的综合政策效应.为克服内生性和共同趋势假定无法满足等问题,本文进一步采用PSM-DID方法对DID模型结论进行稳健性检验,剔除其他因素影响,观察"一带一路"的净效应.发现城镇化建设目前是沿海节点地区借助"一带一路"发展机遇实现快速发展的短板;虽然"一带一路"战略对沿海节点地区经济发展推动作用显著,但在剔除共同趋势和冲击等其他因素后,"一带一路"战略对沿海节点地区经济发展的净影响效应为负.沿海节点地区港口和港城协同发展无论是在综合影响还是剔除其他影响情况下都落后于非节点地区.因此沿海节点地区应以科学发展观为引领,完善港口合作体系,提高港口企业竞争意识,扩大港口辐射范围,加快港口信息化建设,发挥港口对新型城镇化的支撑作用.同时将新型城镇化发展和港口物流发展共同规划,积极调整港、城发展以适应和更好参与到"一带一路"战略中.     

Regional container port competition in a dual gateway-port system

Many ocean transportation hub systems consist of two container ports that share the container handling business in the area. The container flow passing through a port is the main measurement of the port’s competitiveness. In this paper we adopt a Hotelling model to study the container port competition in a so-called “dual gateway-port system”. The system contains two ports and two terminals, one belonging to each port. The two governments in which the two ports are located compete on cargo fees and the two terminals determine service price and service quality. We study two models with different levels of competition between the terminals. In the first model, the two terminals are owned by two different operators and in the second model, the two terminals are centralized under one operator. The second model exists in practice but is not well studied in the literature. We derive the cargo fee, terminal service price, and service quality equilibria for these two models. We investigate the competition outcome sensitivity with a numerical study. The numerical results reveal that governments prefer terminals to compete with each other. If the terminals do not have competitive advantages in their service quality, then terminal centralization brings more profits to the terminal operator than the competition case.     

不确定Liu混沌系统的动态面跟踪控制

针对一类含有常参数不确定性及外部干扰的Liu混沌系统的跟踪控制问题,采用动态面控制方法设计了一个新颖的非线性自适应鲁棒跟踪控制器。该方法由于在逆推设计过程中结合使用了一阶低通滤波器,从而避免了因“微分项的膨胀”而引起的算法复杂性。理论分析及仿真结果均表明所得到的控制器能够保证闭环系统的半全局渐近稳定,使得输出渐近期望跟踪轨迹,且对不确定性具有良好的适应性及鲁棒性。     

Optimization of Hub-and-Spoke Two-stage Logistics Network in Regional Port Cluster

To optimize two-stage logistics transportation network in regional port cluster, combining hub-and-spoke transportation system among regional port with consolidation and dispersing transportation systems between ports and their own hinterlands, a nonlinear optimization model for two-stage logistics system in regional port cluster is introduced to simultaneously determine the following factors: the hinterlands serviced by individual ports and transportation capacity operated between each port and its hinterland, cargo transportation volume and corresponding transportation capacity allocated via a hub port from an original port to a destination port, cargo transportation volume and corresponding transportation capacity allocated directly from an original port to a destination port. Finally, a numerical example is given to demonstrate the application of the proposed model. It can be shown that the solution to the proposed non-linear model can be obtained by transforming it into linear programming models.     

多智能体系统的有限时间跟踪控制

基于领导-跟随者模型研究了多智能体系统的有限时间跟踪控制问题。针对领导者状态是时变的情况,提出了一类非线性有限时间跟踪控制算法,在固定网络拓扑结构下,利用Lyapunov有限时间稳定性理论和矩阵理论分析,得到了该算法使得系统中跟随者状态在有限时间内与领导者状态达到一致的充分条件;在切换网络拓扑结构下,提出了一类有限时间跟踪控制算法,在领导者的状态是时不变的情况下,给出了该算法使得系统实现有限时间跟踪控制的充分条件。仿真实例验证了所提出两类算法的有效性。     

From Action Research to System in Environments: A Method

This paper describes a breakthrough method for obtaining a quantitative picture of an organization in its environments from qualitative Search Conference data. As such it validates the concept of a system in transaction with its environments, the relevant uncertainty of the current extended social environment with its mixture of ideal seeking and maladaption, and many other OST(E) constructs. The organization is a region of the USDA–Forest Service which used a series of 13 Searches to plan the future of the region. The overall picture produced demonstrates how the method extends the joint purposes of social science to generate further hypotheses about changing systems in today's global social field. It also shows that three beliefs in the social science literature can be dispelled; (1) it is difficult to measure complex phenomena, (2) qualitative and quantitative data are incommensurate, and (3) only a small number of variables can be handled simultaneously.     

多目标有约束模糊关系优选决策理论及在港口工程选址中的应用

多目标有约束模糊关系优选决策理论及在港口工程选址中的应用陈守煜熊德琪（大连理工大学，１１６０２４）（大连海事大学，１１６０２３）赵瑛琪（辽宁师范大学，大连１１６０１１）ＦｕｚｚｙＲｅｌａｔｉｏｎｓｈｉｐＯｐｔｉｍｉｚｅｄＤｅｃｉｓｉｏｎ－Ｍａｋｉｎｇ...     

Indirect adaptive fuzzy control for a class of nonlinear discrete-time systems

An indirect adaptive fuzzy control scheme is developed for a class of nonlinear discrete-time systems. In this method, two fuzzy logic systems are used to approximate the unknown functions, and the parameters of membership functions in fuzzy logic systems are adjusted according to adaptive laws for the purpose of controlling the plant to track a reference trajectory. It is proved that the scheme can not only guarantee the boundedness of the input and output of the closed-loop system, but also make the tracking error converge to a small neighborhood of the origin. Simulation results indicate the effectiveness of this scheme.     

Relationship Between Track Fusion Solutions with and without Feedback Information

1 .INTRODUCTIONIndistributedmultisensordatafusionsystems,eachsensorprocessesitsobservationslocallytoproducelo caltracks,andthencommunicatesitstrackstoacen tralsite ,wheretrackfusiontakesplace.Insomesys tems,theinformationofafusioncenterisfedbacktosensors,whichisusedtoimprovethelocaltrackingperformance.Thetrackfusion problemswithorwithoutfeedbackinformationhavebeenwellstudiedandpublishedintheRefs.[1～ 5 ].Thispaperisin tendedtoprovethatthesolutionsofsensortrackfu sionwithandwithoutfeedback…     

非线性时变系统的输出跟踪

研究一类非线性时变控制系统的输出跟踪控制问题。首先，给出了时变李导数及非线性时变系统的相对阶定义；其次，在系统输入输出反馈线性化的基础上，设计了跟踪期望信号的时变状态反馈控制律；最后给出了数值算例，用仿真结果说明了本文方法的有效性。     

基于对外运输系统的内部运输社会福利最大的多港口地区港口整合方法研究

从封闭区域以港口为节点的对外运输系统(以下简称外运系统)的内部运输社会福利最大的角度,研究多港口地区的港口整合问题.首先,分析外运系统的内部运输社会福利最大的经济学原理,提出衡量外运系统的内部运输社会福利的内部成本计算方法;其次,比较不同港口群规模下的内部成本,以确定封闭多港口地区的最适港口群规模.然后,针对多港口地区港口供给过剩的状况,提出港口多期投资和资产闲置的整合方法.最后,以东北地区为实证研究对象,研究其实质性港口整合问题.研究成果对多港口地区的港口资源整合和协同运营具有重要的实践价值和理论意义.     

基于TOA和方位角测量的三维运动目标被动定位跟踪算法研究

本文提出了一种基于TOA(到达时间)和方位角测量的算法,详细分析了该技术的定位原理和可行性。在某些接收机以被动方法对三维运动目标定位跟踪的双基地雷达系统中,往往难以测量目标的俯仰角;因此本文提出的算法对于双基地被动定位系统的实用性明显地具有很重要的意义。文中通过典型目标航迹的计算机仿真 (按照Monte Carlo方法)对算法的性能做了评估。     

基于广义似然比检验和二维分配的多目标跟踪方法

针对杂波环境下多目标跟踪形成问题,提出一种多目标跟踪方法,采用二维分配算法解决“量测-航迹”关联问题,采用广义似然函数比检验(generalize likelihood ratio test,GLRT)规则对航迹的真假作出判决,并且充分利用信号的强度信息来提高算法的可靠性和有效性。仿真分析表明,该方法能够有效地解决噪声环境下目标的航迹起始、确认、删除和维持问题,给出的递推形式可以满足实时计算的要求。     

输入非仿射不确定系统的跟踪控制

针对一类不确定性输入非仿射的混沌系统,结合模糊逻辑系统、非线性跟踪微分器以及扩展状态观测器,利用反演技术设计了一种新的控制器。该设计中,扩展状态观测器用来估计系统中的未知项及扰动项;模糊逻辑系统用来逼近扩展状态器不能很好处理的未知项,并且设计了误差补偿项;非线性跟踪微分器用来逼近虚拟控制量的导数;然后利用Lyapunov稳定性理论证明了闭环误差信号将渐进收敛到原点的残集内。对具有扰动和不确定性的输入非仿射混沌系统进行了仿真,同时针对一类非严格反馈系统进行了仿真,结果表明了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

基于BP神经网络的港口吞吐量预测模型

港口吞吐量预测是港口决策和规划的基础。为了合理预测港口吞吐量,本文利用外贸进出口总量、第一产业总产值和第三产业总产值作为BP神经网络的输入变量,港口吞吐量为输出变量,建立了港口吞吐量预测的BP神经网络预测模型。然后根据2000年-2010年广西北部湾港口吞吐量、外贸进出口总量、第一产业总产值和第三产业总产值,利用Matlab 6.5软件的神经网络工具箱,通过对BP神经网络模型的反复训练,发现当隐含层节点数为6,学习率为0.05,训练次数为500次,训练精度为0.001,动力因子为0.9时得到的效果最好。并对BP神经网络模型与多元回归模型的预测结果进行比较分析,认为BP神经网络模型预测的总体效果更优。最后利用所确定的BP神经网络模型,对2011年和2012年两年的港口吞吐量进行了预测。