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1.
随着知识经济时代的到来,人才成为企业获取竞争优势的关键,如何通过人力资源管理促进企业成长日益成为中小企业经营管理者关注的焦点。中小企业人力资源管理不正规、临时性和非专业化的特征使其成长过程有着自身的特殊性。本文通过文献总结,归纳了目前的研究进展;在中国情境下,从中小企业生命周期的视角,分析了我国中小企业人力资源管理成长的需求和现状;最后对中小企业人力资源成长三阶段面临的问题分别提出了应对建议。  相似文献   

2.
    
We examine the potential gains of using exchange rate forecast models and forecast combination methods in the management of currency portfolios for three exchange rates: the euro versus the US dollar, the British pound, and the Japanese yen. We use a battery of econometric specifications to evaluate whether optimal currency portfolios implied by trading strategies based on exchange rate forecasts outperform single currencies and the equally weighted portfolio. We assess the differences in profitability of optimal currency portfolios for different types of investor preferences, two trading strategies, mean squared error‐based composite forecasts, and different forecast horizons. Our results indicate that there are clear benefits of integrating exchange rate forecasts from state‐of‐the‐art econometric models in currency portfolios. These benefits vary across investor preferences and prediction horizons but are rather similar across trading strategies.  相似文献   

3.
企业资本结构理论关于企业价值与资本结构的论述是以成熟资本市场为前提,而能在公开资本市场上融资的一般为大型企业:我国于2004年开辟了中小企业板块,使得部分中小企业可以在资本市场上融资,资本结构理论是否适用于这类企业,本文以中小企业板上市公司为对象对中小企业资本结构与企业价值关系进行实证研究.  相似文献   

4.
    
We provide a comprehensive study of out‐of‐sample forecasts for the EUR/USD exchange rate based on multivariate macroeconomic models and forecast combinations. We use profit maximization measures based on directional accuracy and trading strategies in addition to standard loss minimization measures. When comparing predictive accuracy and profit measures, data snooping bias free tests are used. The results indicate that forecast combinations, in particular those based on principal components of forecasts, help to improve over benchmark trading strategies, although the excess return per unit of deviation is limited. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
为了研究耐用品双寡头企业的竞争策略,基于Bulow的耐用度选择模型,建立了存在易耗部件情况下的双寡头耐用品企业两期需求一价格模型;求得了双寡头耐用品企业租赁情况下的两期均衡产量;并运用MATLAB软件对均衡解进行仿真,分析了双寡头耐用品企业自身和对手的耐用品耐用度及易耗部件耐用度对均衡产量影响。  相似文献   

6.
根据现实社会经济活动中多企业多维博弈现象,首先探讨多个企业关于具有需求替代性产品产量策略的静态和动态多维博弈问题,然后求出其多维均衡结果,并通过算例对比多维博弈与单独博弈的均衡结果。分析表明:在产量策略多维动态博弈中,领头厂商将选择更高的产量策略,获得比尾随厂商更多的利润,即领头厂商具有先动优势;多维博弈下的多维Nash均衡策略优于单独博弈下的Nash均衡策略。  相似文献   

7.
本文对近年来国外学者在企业间绩效差异来源方面的相关研究进行了梳理,并从全样本与样本分组两个视角出发,对行业、战略、资源能力与企业间绩效差异关系的相关研究成果进行了分类总结与比较分析.在此基础上,还得出应逐步加强对“效应有效性条件”问题进行研究的结论.  相似文献   

8.
国防风险投资:美国的探索与启示   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
为更迅速地利用工商业界的技术成果,促进国防科技创新,降低国防科技发展成本,美国在国防科研投入不断下降的背景下,对国防风险投资进行了探索。本文对美国国防风险投资兴起的动因和实践探索进行了分析,并对美国对风险投资在国防科研领域的尝试进行了追溯;综述了美国理论界对国防风险投资的研究成果,并对我国借鉴风险投资发展武器装备提出了建议。  相似文献   

9.
We look into the interaction of Google's search queries and several aspects of international equity markets. Using a novel methodology for selecting words and a vector autoregressive modeling approach, we study whether the search queries of finance‐related words can have an impact on returns, volatility of returns and traded volume in four different English‐speaking countries. We identify several words whose search frequency is associated with changes in the dependent variables. In particular, we find that increases in search queries including the word stock predict increased volatility and decreased index returns over the next week. On top of that, we investigate the performance of a market‐timing strategy based on the search frequency of this word and benchmark it against random words from the Word‐Net database and a naive buy‐and‐hold strategy. The results of this empirical application are positive and particularly stronger during the global crisis of 2009. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
Motivated by the importance of coffee to Americans and the significance of the coffee subsector to the US economy, we pursue three notable innovations. First, we augment the traditional Phillips curve model with the coffee price as a predictor, and show that the resulting model outperforms the traditional variant in both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample predictability of US inflation. Second, we demonstrate the need to account for the inherent statistical features of predictors such as persistence, endogeneity, and conditional heteroskedasticity effects when dealing with US inflation. Consequently, we offer robust illustrations to show that the choice of estimator matters for improved US inflation forecasts. Third, the proposed augmented Phillips curve also outperforms time series models such as autoregressive integrated moving average and the fractionally integrated version for both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample forecasts. Our results show that augmenting the traditional Phillips curve with the urban coffee price will produce better forecast results for US inflation only when the statistical effects are captured in the estimation process. Our results are robust to alternative measures of inflation, different data frequencies, higher order moments, multiple data samples and multiple forecast horizons.  相似文献   

11.
    
The success of any timing strategy depends on the accuracy of market forecasts. In this paper, we test five indices to forecast the 1‐month‐ahead performance of the S&P 500 Index. These indices reflect investor sentiment, current business conditions, economic policy uncertainty, and market dislocation information. Each model is used in a logistic regression analysis to predict the 1‐month‐ahead market direction, and the forecasts are used to adjust the portfolio's beta. Beta optimization refers to a strategy designed to create a portfolio beta of 1.0 when the market is expected to go up, and a beta of ?1.0 when a bear market is expected. Successful application of this strategy generates returns that are consistent with a call option or an option straddle position; that is, positive returns are generated in both up and down markets. Analysis reveals that the models' forecasts have discriminatory power in identifying substantial market movements, particularly during the bursting of the tech bubble and the financial crisis. Four of the five forecast models tested outperform the benchmark index.  相似文献   

12.
    
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13.
    
We examined the link between international equity flows and US stock returns. Based on the results of tests of in‐sample and out‐of‐sample predictability of stock returns, we found evidence of a strong positive (negative) link between international equity flows and contemporaneous (one‐month‐ahead) stock returns. Our results also indicate that an investor, in real time, could have used information on the link between international equity flows and one‐month‐ahead stock returns to improve the performance of simple trading rules. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
    
Foreign exchange market prediction is attractive and challenging. According to the efficient market and random walk hypotheses, market prices should follow a random walk pattern and thus should not be predictable with more than about 50% accuracy. In this article, we investigate the predictability of foreign exchange spot rates of the US dollar against the British pound to show that not all periods are equally random. We used the Hurst exponent to select a period with great predictability. Parameters for generating training patterns were determined heuristically by auto‐mutual information and false nearest‐neighbor methods. Some inductive machine‐learning classifiers—artificial neural network, decision tree, k‐nearest neighbor, and naïve Bayesian classifier—were then trained with these generated patterns. Through appropriate collaboration of these models, we achieved a prediction accuracy of up to 67%. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
    
This paper investigates the impact of both asset and macroeconomic forecast errors on inflation forecast errors in the USA by making use of a two‐regime model. The findings document a significant contribution of both types of forecast errors to the explanation of inflation forecast errors, with the pass‐through being stronger when these errors move within the high‐volatility regime. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
    
In recent years, considerable attention has focused on modelling and forecasting stock market volatility. Stock market volatility matters because stock markets are an integral part of the financial architecture in market economies and play a key role in channelling funds from savers to investors. The focus of this paper is on forecasting stock market volatility in Central and East European (CEE) countries. The obvious question to pose, therefore, is how volatility can be forecast and whether one technique consistently outperforms other techniques. Over the years a variety of techniques have been developed, ranging from the relatively simple to the more complex conditional heteroscedastic models of the GARCH family. In this paper we test the predictive power of 12 models to forecast volatility in the CEE countries. Our results confirm that models which allow for asymmetric volatility consistently outperform all other models considered. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
    
In this paper, we forecast real house price growth of 16 OECD countries using information from domestic macroeconomic indicators and global measures of the housing market. Consistent with the findings for the US housing market, we find that the forecasts from an autoregressive model dominate the forecasts from the random walk model for most of the countries in our sample. More importantly, we find that the forecasts from a bivariate model that includes economically important domestic macroeconomic variables and two global indicators of the housing market significantly improve upon the univariate autoregressive model forecasts. Among all the variables, the mean square forecast error from the model with the country's domestic interest rates has the best performance for most of the countries. The country's income, industrial production, and stock markets are also found to have valuable information about the future movements in real house price growth. There is also some evidence supporting the influence of the global housing price growth in out‐of‐sample forecasting of real house price growth in these OECD countries.  相似文献   

18.
    
In this paper, we examine a relatively novel form of gambling, spread (or index) betting that overlaps with practices in conventional financial markets. In this form of betting, a number of bookmakers quote bid–offer spreads about the result of some future event. Bettors may buy (sell) at the top (bottom) end of a spread. We hypothesize that the existence of an outlying spread may provide uninformed traders with forecasting information that can be used to develop improved trading strategies. Using data from a popular spread betting market in the United Kingdom, we find that the price obtaining at the market mid‐point does indeed provide a better forecast of asset values than that implied in the outlying spread. We further show that this information can be used to develop trading strategies leading to returns that are consistently positive and superior to those from noise trading. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
    
This paper examines the forecasting ability of the nonlinear specifications of the market model. We propose a conditional two‐moment market model with a time‐varying systematic covariance (beta) risk in the form of a mean reverting process of the state‐space model via the Kalman filter algorithm. In addition, we account for the systematic component of co‐skewness and co‐kurtosis by considering higher moments. The analysis is implemented using data from the stock indices of several developed and emerging stock markets. The empirical findings favour the time‐varying market model approaches, which outperform linear model specifications both in terms of model fit and predictability. Precisely, higher moments are necessary for datasets that involve structural changes and/or market inefficiencies which are common in most of the emerging stock markets. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
    
This paper investigates the transmission patterns of stock market movements between developed and emerging market economies by estimating a four‐variable VAR model. The underlying economic fundamentals and trade links are considered as possible determinants of differences in transmission patterns. The results of the impulse response functions and variance decompositions indicate that significant links exist between the stock markets of the USA and Mexico and weaker links between the markets of the USA, Argentina, and Brazil. Differences in the patterns of stock market responses are consistent with differences in trade flows. The response of emerging markets to a shock to the US market lasts longer than that of a developed market such as the UK. While no single emerging market can affect the US stock market, the combined effect of emerging markets on the US stock market is found to be statistically significant. These findings can be linked to differences in the speed of information processing and to the institutional structure governing the market. Overall the findings suggest that the transmission of stock market movements is in accord with underlying economic fundamentals rather than irrational contagion effects. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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