一个区域气候-化学耦合模式的研制及初步应用

将区域气候模式RegCM 2和对流层大气化学模式TACM相耦合 ,建立了一个区域气候 -化学模式系统 (RegCCMS) ,主要用于对流层臭氧和硫酸盐气溶胶的时空分布、辐射强迫和气候效应研究 .利用 2 0 0 0年 7月NCEP再分析资料和RegCCMS模拟了东亚地区夏季对流层臭氧和硫酸盐气溶胶的空间分布 ,估计了相应的辐射强迫以及对近地面气温变化的影响 .研究表明我国夏季对流层臭氧和硫酸盐的月均最大地面浓度分别为 1 2 5× 1 0 - 9和 8μg/m3.对流层臭氧的平均辐射强迫为 0 .3 9W /m2 ,硫酸盐气溶胶的平均直接辐射强迫为 - 0 .92W /m2 ,两者皆在西南、华南和华中地区出现极值中心 .硫酸盐气溶胶的平均间接辐射强迫为 - 0 .2W /m2 ,华东和华南沿海地区相对较强 .在局部地区 ,对流层臭氧和硫酸盐气溶胶的辐射强迫高于IPCC( 2 0 0 1 )报导值 .总体而言 ,对流层臭氧可能导致的增暖效应明显弱于硫酸盐气溶胶的冷却效应 ,因此 ,净辐射强迫为负值 ,两者的综合效应造成近地面平均气温下降 - 0 .2℃ .西南地区降温较为明显 ,最大幅度达到 - 0 .5 7℃ .     

中国春季沙尘气溶胶的辐射效应及对气候影响的研究

本文在区域气候模式RIEMS2．0中引入沙尘气溶胶的起沙机制,同时建立了与气候模式连接的沙尘气溶胶输送模式,并在辐射模块中加入沙尘气溶胶的影响,模拟沙尘气溶胶的输送、扩散、沉降等过程以及对辐射的影响．利用此模式得到了1998年春季3、4、5月中国地区沙尘气溶胶的主要源区分布、沙尘气溶胶的柱浓度分布、光学厚度等物理量及其辐射效应和气候效应．结果表明春季中国沙尘源区主要集中在内蒙古西部的腾格里沙漠、巴丹吉林沙漠,中部的浑善达克沙地,南疆塔克拉玛干沙漠东部,河西走廊地区以及青海的柴达木盆地附近,这些地区的起沙率大于5μg／（m^2·s）,最大为65μg／（m^2·s）;沙尘气溶胶柱浓度最大值达0．55g／m^2,出现在塔克拉玛干沙漠地区,相应的光学厚度最大值是0．50．沙尘气溶胶使得中国地区地面短波辐射收入平均减小了4．10w／m^2,地面长波辐射收入增大了,＋0．46w／m^2,地面净辐射强迫为-3．64w／m^2,大气辐射收支与地面相反,净辐射强迫为＋3．10w／m^2;同时沙尘气溶胶通过影响到达地面的辐射使得地面有较强的降温,整个模拟区域平均地面气温降低了0．24K,而北方地区地面气温降低了0．37K;沙尘对于降水的影响主要体现在对小雨的影响上,沙尘气溶胶使得模拟区域内小雨减小了20％左右;另一方面,华北地区降水受沙尘气溶胶影响最大,总降水减少了13．8％,而全区域总降水只减少了2％．     

我国春季大气沙尘气溶胶分布和短波辐射效应的数值模拟

利用已建立的区域气候模式与大气化学模式耦和的模拟系统 ,在气候模式中引入了起沙机制 ,同时建立了与气候模式连接的沙尘气溶胶输送模式 ,模拟沙尘的输送、扩散、沉降等过程 .通过对 1 998年 4月的模拟 ,分析得到中国地区沙尘气溶胶的主要源区分布情况、沙尘的浓度分布特点和光学厚度特征 ,并且将一次沙尘暴个例与同期卫星观测的气溶胶指数分布做了对比 .进一步模拟了沙尘气溶胶辐射效应 ,发现沙尘气溶胶能减少地面的辐射净收入 ,使南方的大气辐射收入减少 ,使北方的大气辐射收入增加 .由于沙尘气溶胶对辐射的削弱使地面气温有显著降低     

东亚地区人为硫酸盐气溶胶辐射气候效应不同模拟方法的对比

 利用区域气候模式RegCM2与大气化学模式连接的模拟系统,研究了中国地区人为排放生成的硫酸盐气溶胶分布及其辐射气候效应,并与全球模式的结果进行了比较,同时对比了硫酸盐气溶胶辐射气候效应的在线、离线模拟方法所得结果差异的细致情况.通过以上工作表明:区域气候和大气化学耦合模式系统能在比大气环流模式更精细的尺度上获得硫酸盐分布规律和辐射气候效应;并且区域气候模式与大气化学模式的在线与离线连接方法得到的硫酸盐柱含量、有反馈和无反馈大气顶直接辐射强迫和地表温度响应在较小区域平均的尺度上存在较显著的差异,并且在全区域平均尺度上也不能被忽略;通过对气候响应的进一步分析发现:模拟结果显示了从硫酸盐含量到辐射强迫和地表温度响应逐渐加大的不确定性.     

北京地区城市化对辐射强迫的影响估算

能引起城市区域辐射强迫的因素较多,但是目前城市化引起的辐射强迫的相关研究较少.本文利用GLASS 反照率遥感数据和CERES地表短波辐射数据计算了近10年来北京地区城市化过程引起的辐射强迫,讨论了辐射强迫 的空间分布规律及数量统计特征.基于2000、2010年2期的Globeland30土地分类数据提取了城市边缘区,并结合辐射 强迫遥感数据计算了主城核心区、內缘区、各级外缘区的辐射强迫,探究了土地覆盖变化强迫因子、气候等其他强迫因子 的相对贡献大小.结果表明:近10年北京市全区域的辐射强迫为2.52 W·m-2,表现为增温效应,其中土地覆被不变区 域产生的辐射强迫为2.51W·m-2,耕地、林地是2种主要辐射强迫源;土地覆被变化区域产生的辐射强迫为2.67 W· m-2,非植被类型之间的土地覆被变化引起的平均辐射强迫为2.23W·m-2,有植被参与的土地覆被变化区域产生的辐 射强迫为2.95W·m-2;主城核心区的辐射强迫为-1.16W·m-2,表现为降温效应;辐射强迫变化与距离主城区的距离 呈先增大后减小的变化趋势.研究结果可为城市区域的辐射强迫研究提供参考,有助于了解北京市区域气候分布差异      

MM5v3多种物理过程不同参数化方案的组合试验 --对东亚区域气候模拟

考虑区域气候模式中诸物理过程的多种参数化方案的相互影响，对MM5v3模式中3个物理过程设计了16组不同参数化方案的组合试验．用1997和1998年6～8月NCEP／NCAR再分析资料作了东亚的区域气候模拟．经检验、分析和比较各组合方案在东亚区域的模拟能力，发现MM5v3模式能适合对东亚地区的区域气候模拟；当用MM5V3作东亚区域气候模拟时，Kain-Fritsch积云参数化方案、OSU LSM陆面过程参数化方案与CCM2辐射参数化方案的组合更为合理．这些结果对于发展适合我国的新一代区域气候模式有一定的参考意义．     

SACOL黑碳和沙尘气溶胶辐射强迫分析

利用兰州大学半干旱气候与环境观测站(SACOL)的太阳光度计资料、AREONET气溶胶光学特性资料,采用辐射传输模式SBDART分析了SACOL典型日个例沙尘气溶胶和黑碳气溶胶的长、短波辐射强迫,探讨了不同地表反照率和天顶角对气溶胶辐射强迫的影响.分析表明,沙尘和黑碳在地表的短波辐射强迫分别是-146.54,-60 W/m~2,长波辐射强迫分别是17.79,8.66 W/m~2,短波辐射强迫是长波的6倍多,沙尘辐射强迫是黑碳的2倍多;在大气层顶沙尘和黑碳短波辐射强迫是39.04,27.2 W/m~2,长波辐射强迫为12.19,5.0 W/m~2.短波辐射强迫随地表反照率的增加而增大,长波辐射强迫随地表反照率的增加线性减小.随天顶角减小,大气层顶的短波辐射强迫线性增加,地面短波辐射强迫对数减小,长波辐射强迫随天顶角的变化很小.     

中国碳气溶胶时空分布与辐射强迫的数值模拟

为了更好地了解我国区域碳气溶胶,利用意大利国际理论物理中心ICTP(International Center forTheoretical Physics)的气溶胶资料和区域气候模式R egCM 3对2000年我国碳气溶胶时空分布与辐射强迫进行了数值模拟。结果表明:我国碳气溶胶主要分布在黄河以南、青藏高原以东的广大区域,且柱含量分布具有明显的季节性。春季最大,冬季次之,夏季最小;除东部沿海等少数地区外,碳气溶胶大气顶辐射强迫在全国绝大部分地区符号均为正,而地表辐射强迫符号为负。各单种气溶胶之间存在复杂的相互作用,研究综合气溶胶分布和气候效应时,不能简单地将各单种气溶胶的作用进行叠加。     

用于印制线路板的新退焊锡剂研究

本研究采用烯丙基磺酸 (作络合剂 )、硝酸 (作氧化剂 )、硝酸铁 (作均相催化剂 )和咪唑 (防铜蚀抑制剂 )为组分开发了一种新的退焊锡剂 ,它具有优良的退锡特性—退速快 (≤ 30s) ,退除容量大 (≥ 10 0g/L) ,对铜无腐蚀 ,体系中不出现沉积物以及产品的颜色光亮 .喷射退锡实验的结果说明本退锡剂各组份的适宜浓度范围为 :HNO3为 60～ 150g/L ,Fe(NO3) 3为 4 5～ 110g/L ,烯丙基磺酸为 80～ 140g/L以及咪唑为 6～ 12g/L ;它们的最佳范围依次为 12 0～ 140g/L ,90～ 110g/L、10 0～ 12 0g/L和 8～ 9g/L 图 2 ,表 2 ,参 5     

区域气候模式和大气化学模式对中国地区气候变化和对流层臭氧分布的模拟

在区域气候模式的基础上引入了对流层大气化学模式，并实现两的双向反馈连接，利用该模式系统模拟中国地区对流层大气臭氧和区域气候，发现东亚季风是影响中国地区对流层大气臭氧分布的重要原因，并且对流层臭氧分布局域性较为明显。模拟也得到了模拟区域气候的四个典型月特征，并与分析资料对比验证了所得结果。此外利用大气化学模式计算的臭氧反馈到区域气候模型中，模拟对流层臭氧增加背景下。模拟区域内晴空辐射强迫的变化。     

Dust direct radiative effects on the earth-atmosphere system over east Asia: Early spring cooling and late spring warming

Focusing on three dust storms occurring in spring 2001,we developed a detailed aerosol parameterization scheme and integrated it in a radiative transfer model to characterize possible impacts of solar altitude angle on dust direct radiative effects over China desert regions and the North Pacific,using actual daily solar altitude angles.Increasing solar altitude angle from early spring (or winter) to late spring (or summer) leads to increase of positive clear sky radiative forcing,and decrease of negative radiative forcing due to dust aerosols at the top of the atmosphere.Because solar altitude angle increases from early to late spring,dust-clear sky radiative forcing may change from negative to positive at the top of atmosphere,showing a change from cooling to heating of the earth-atmosphere system over high-albedo deserts and nearby regions.Over low-albedo ocean negative clear sky radiative forcing by dust may decrease,suggesting a change from strong to weak cooling on the earth-atmosphere system.The impacts of solar altitude angle on cloudy sky radiative forcing due to dust are similar to those of clear sky.Impacts of low cloud on dust radiative forcing are the same as increasing surface albedo.This causes the transition of dust cooling effects into heating effects over deserts to occur earlier,and causes decrease of negative radiative forcing over the ocean and even cause a change from weak negative radiative forcing to weak positive forcing over local areas.Even in the same East Asian desert regions and nearby areas,the strength and sign of the radiative forcings depend on storm dates and thus solar altitude angle.The nearer to early spring (or winter) a dust storm occurs,the easier it leads to negative radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere,which indicates cooling effects on the earth-atmosphere system.In contrast,the nearer to late spring (or summer) a dust storm occurs,the easier it leads to positive radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere,showing heating effects.Over East Asian deserts and nearby regions,dust layers may be regarded as cooling sources in early spring (winter) and warming sources in late spring (summer).     

Offset of the potential carbon sink from boreal forestation by decreases in surface albedo

Carbon uptake by forestation is one method proposed to reduce net carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere and so limit the radiative forcing of climate change. But the overall impact of forestation on climate will also depend on other effects associated with the creation of new forests. In particular, the albedo of a forested landscape is generally lower than that of cultivated land, especially when snow is lying, and decreasing albedo exerts a positive radiative forcing on climate. Here I simulate the radiative forcings associated with changes in surface albedo as a result of forestation in temperate and boreal forest areas, and translate these forcings into equivalent changes in local carbon stock for comparison with estimated carbon sequestration potentials. I suggest that in many boreal forest areas, the positive forcing induced by decreases in albedo can offset the negative forcing that is expected from carbon sequestration. Some high-latitude forestation activities may therefore increase climate change, rather than mitigating it as intended.     

Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses to increasing carbon dioxide

In addition to influencing climatic conditions directly through radiative forcing, increasing carbon dioxide concentration influences the climate system through its effects on plant physiology. Plant stomata generally open less widely under increased carbon dioxide concentration, which reduces transpiration and thus leaves more water at the land surface. This driver of change in the climate system, which we term 'physiological forcing', has been detected in observational records of increasing average continental runoff over the twentieth century. Here we use an ensemble of experiments with a global climate model that includes a vegetation component to assess the contribution of physiological forcing to future changes in continental runoff, in the context of uncertainties in future precipitation. We find that the physiological effect of doubled carbon dioxide concentrations on plant transpiration increases simulated global mean runoff by 6 per cent relative to pre-industrial levels; an increase that is comparable to that simulated in response to radiatively forced climate change (11 +/- 6 per cent). Assessments of the effect of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations on the hydrological cycle that only consider radiative forcing will therefore tend to underestimate future increases in runoff and overestimate decreases. This suggests that freshwater resources may be less limited than previously assumed under scenarios of future global warming, although there is still an increased risk of drought. Moreover, our results highlight that the practice of assessing the climate-forcing potential of all greenhouse gases in terms of their radiative forcing potential relative to carbon dioxide does not accurately reflect the relative effects of different greenhouse gases on freshwater resources.     

Recognition of climatic effects of land use/land cover change under global warming

Greenhouse gas emissions and land use/land cover change (LUCC) are two human activities notably affecting climate change. Will temperature and precipitation increase significantly during global warming resulting in more pronounced LUCC climatic effects? Considering the interannual forcing of these two factors, the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4.0) was used in this study to investigate the importance of climatological background to LUCC impacts. Experiments based on the difference in the background climate, the greenhouse gas concentrations in 1850 and in the present age indicate contrary changes in climate sensitivity through estimations of the radiative forcing associated with LUCC, which are 0.54°C/(W/m²) and ?0.26°C/(W/m²), respectively. Therefore, the background climate appears to play an important role in the regional impact of LUCC, especially at higher latitudes. In addition, global warming predominantly influences snow-albedo feedback in the mid-latitudes, thus determining the impact of LUCC, whereas the regional difference in precipitation caused by global warming is responsible for the differing climate response to LUCC in the tropics and subtropics.     

Case study of longwave contribution to dust radiative effects over East Asia

In order to evaluate the impacts of LW contribution to aerosol radiative effects over East Asia,a dust longwave radiative parameterization scheme is integrated into the online mesoscale dust forecasting model GRAPES_CUACE/dust.A case modeling study shows that about half at surface and one third at TOA of the dust negative shortwave radiative forcing are cancelled by its positive longwave forcing over the dust affected area.In the dust layer,longwave radiation emitting by dust cools the atmosphere,which counteracts about 17%of shortwave heating of atmosphere during daytime and results in cooling of atmosphere simply during nighttime.At the same time,the atmosphere beyond the dust layer is warmed because of absorbing the LW radiation emitted by dust layer.Dust longwave contribution exerts more evident impact on the air temperature in lower atmosphere and surface.The surface air temperature cooling rate resulting from the dust solar radiation is cancelled about 40%by dust longwave warming at daytime.At nighttime,dust longwave contribution warms land and sea surface.The online calculation of dust LW radiation reduces about 15%relative errors of predicted AOD based on the dust model with only SW radiative feedback.This case study result suggests that dust longwave contribution has important impacts on the earth-atmosphere energy process,especially on the surface and in the lower atmosphere and should not be neglected in the study of dust radiation effects.     

远源地下水入侵阿拉善高原沙漠:酸溶物Sr同位素证据

选取北方西－东向气候剖面上物质组成相似的四个沙漠（塔克拉玛干、巴丹吉林、腾格里和毛乌素）,测定其地表沙酸溶物87Sr/86Sr比值、Ca2+和Sr2+浓度。Ca2+和Sr2+浓度相关性极好,在降雨量低的塔克拉玛干沙漠中最高,向东逐渐降低,在降雨量多的毛乌素沙漠中最低。降雨量是控制阳离子浓度变化的主导因素。酸溶物87Sr/86Sr比值在四个沙漠中有不同于阳离子变化的区域特征。塔克拉玛干沙漠酸溶物87Sr/86Sr比值在0.71以下,巴丹吉林和腾格里沙漠的大于0.7112,而毛乌素沙漠的在0.71-0.7112之间变化。塔克拉玛干和毛乌素沙漠地表沙酸溶物87Sr/86Sr比值仅受气候变化的制约。巴丹吉林和腾格里沙漠除了受气候因素影响外还受其它因素的制约,最可能的就是远源地下水。经计算,远源地下水对巴丹吉林沙漠的影响份额为47%,对腾格里沙漠为44%,接近气候因素的影响。     

石家庄市主城区热岛特征及变化分析

城市热岛效应是城市化进程带来的突出问题。基于Landsat数据和辐射传导方程法反演出地表温度,分析2004-2020年石家庄市主城区热岛变化,结合土地利用和标准差椭圆得出热岛扩张情况,并研究地表温度与归一化植被指数(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI)、建筑指数(Normalized Difference Built-up Index,NDBI)和温度植被干旱指数(Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index,TVDI)的相关性,为国土空间优化布局提供理论依据。结果表明,2004-2020年平均地表温度、最低地表温度均有所升高;热岛主要集中在市中心、鹿泉区、藁城区和栾城区的城镇点,以及铜冶镇,建筑用地和热岛扩张趋势一致,并向着西北和东南方向扩张;地表温度与NDVI呈现负相关,与NDBI、TVDI呈现正相关,建筑用地是地表温度升高的主要因素之一,植被覆盖度和地表湿润度可以调控地表温度。     

绿洲区域气候效应的数值模拟

在改进的土壤植被大气模式（MSPAS）的基础上,引入一个有效的大气辐射传输方案,建立了一个能在物理上真实地描述陆气相互作用及其反馈机制的二维模式（MLAIM）。利用HEIFE实验的观测资料,对改进了土壤水分传输、近地面层湍流输送以及植被物理过程参数化方案后的MLAIM进行了检验。结果表明,MLAIM能够合理地模拟陆气相互作用中的各种物理过程,能够有效地模拟绿洲与沙漠的地表能量收支情况。因此利用MLAIM对绿洲的气候效应进行了研究,分析了绿洲“冷岛效应”与“湿岛效应”的形成机理,并且着重研究了绿洲对其周围沙漠的影响。结果表明,绿洲对沙漠的水汽输送是影响沙漠地表能量收支以及绿洲周边区域气候的最重要的因子。