The Millennium Cohort Study

The Millennium Cohort Study is the latest in the line of British birth cohort studies. MCS resembles its predecessors which follow people born in 1946, 1958 and 1970 in the intention to become multi-purpose longitudinal data resource charting many aspects of individual's lives over time. The families of a sample of around 20,000 babies are being interviewed during 2001-02, when eligible babies reach 9 months, to establish the conditions from which they set out in life. The survey contrasts with the previous cohort studies in various ways. Instead of taking all births in one week, the sample of births is spread over a year; the births are from a selection of electoral wards, thereby enabling eventual analysis by neighbourhood characteristics; it also over samples children living in deprived areas, wards with high ethnic minority populations and samples have been boosted in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The latter UK country has not been covered by the other studies. It interviews fathers as well as mothers, and given that its initial funding comes via the ESRC, puts a greater emphasis on socio-economic data than in early parts of the other studies. MCS has been enhanced by additional Government funding. The research team, based at the Institute of Education, aims to deposit a multi-purpose dataset for public use at the ESRC data Archive in the Spring of 2003.     

Changes in family structure in early childhood in the Millennium Cohort Study

This article develops a typology of family change over the first five years of children's lives using data from the Millennium Cohort Study. It examines the changes over time of parental living arrangements and describes a range of social, economic and well-being indicators. It shows that nearly three quarters of this sample of young children have not experienced changes in family structures. The most advantaged group appears to be children living with continuously married parents, followed by those who live with cohabiting parents who marry. Children who experienced changes in family structure are a diverse group. Coupled parents who separate suffer the largest drop in income over five years. Lone parents who partner gain the most income. However, their incomes are still much lower than continuously partnered parents. This article suggests that using static or overly simplified measures of family structure hides important variations in the experiences of children.     

系统辩证学视阈下的宇宙与人——乌杰《系统辩证学》解读之一

系统辩证学，是在马克思主义哲学基础上结合现代科学的研究成果和新的理论成就发展形成的哲学的科学，是一种新的世界观和方法论。在当今宇宙论的诸多论题中，时空有限还是无限、世界完美还是残缺以及人在宇宙中的位置是最重要也最困难的。以系统辩证学为思想和方法，尝试对以上三大宇宙论问题进行初步的系统辩证观的解读。     

Migration in later life: evidence from the British Household Panel Study

This article uses data from the British Household Panel Study over the period 1991 - 2007 to examine the factors associated with residential mobility among people aged 50 and over. In line with earlier research, the likelihood of migrating, that is, changing address, is found to vary according to the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the older person. Those in late middle age (50-59) and the oldest-old (90 and over) were most likely to move. Migration was also strongly associated with changes in partnership, health and economic status during the last 12 months, highlighting the importance of seeing migration within a life course context with certain life course events such as divorce, widowhood or retirement being important triggers for prompting a move. As divorce and remarriage become more common in later life, 'relationship driven migration' is likely to become more important, adding a new category to the classical typology of later life migration.     

Opportunities for new research using the post-2001 ONS Longitudinal Study

The addition of 2001 Census data to the ONS Longitudinal Study extends the range of research topics that this unique data resource can support. Census questions on religion, care-giving and self-rated health that were asked for the first time in 2001 and the repetition of 1991 questions on limiting long-standing illness and ethnicity raise opportunities for new longitudinal investigation in these areas. This article describes how new 2001 methodologies including data imputation, the One Number Census and de jure enumeration affect the LS database. The support service for existing and prospective LS users is described.     

Facilitating Trust Building in Networks: A Study from the Water Technology Industry

This paper analyses how action researchers can facilitate trust building processes in inter-firm networks and develops a framework for network development. A longitudinal case study of developing a regional network of water technology SMEs constitutes the empirical base. The paper argues that researchers can directly facilitate processes with a capacity to build two types of trust in different phases of network development, both characteristic-based and process-based trust. The findings indicate that processes to build characteristic-based trust can be facilitated through dialogue processes in temporary groups at network meetings. Processes to build process-based trust are stimulated by practical inter-firm teamwork. Furthermore, there seems to be a mutually reinforcing relationship between these two forms of trust formation, which can be influenced by action researchers. When the level of trust has reached a point of critical mass, new-coming firms seem to jump quickly through characteristic-based trust towards a relatively high level of process-based trust.     

Critical Systems Thinking and “new social movements”: A perspective from the theory of communicative action

The purpose of this paper is to review recent developments in critical theory on the political function of the public sphere and the emancipatory potential of new social movements. This work is shown to be relevant to systemic decisions made under conditions of public conflict. Normative models for the self-understanding of actors engaged in self-limiting emancipatory struggles in modern societies are reviewed and related to the concerns of Critical Systems Thinking.     

新信息离散GM(1,1)模型及其特性研究

研究了新信息离散GM(1,1)模型(NDGM)的参数特性及其对等比序列的拟合性质.提出了分段修正新信息离散GM(1,1)模型(SNDGM)并对其建模机理进行研究.证明了序列初始值不影响发展系数值,以此为依据对SNDGM模型进行拓展,解决了原始数据序列为分段等比数据情况下的拟合精度问题.结果表明NDGM模型能够完全拟合等比序列,SNDGM模型能够完全拟合分段等比序列.     

工业污染控制绩效评价模型:基于环境规制视角的实证研究

通过引入n维欧式空间上的范数,建立了工业污染控制绩效评价模型,并依此对中国30个省市区2003～2010年的工业污染控制绩效进行测度,同时通过归回分析实证检验了各种环境规制工具在中国工业污染控制中的作用。结果显示,2003年以来,中国工业污染控制绩效取得了显著的改善,但存在严重的区域失衡现象。要提升中国工业污染控制绩效,应该充分发挥命令控制型和市场激励型规制工具的互补优势;综合运用多种规制手段,加强对信息披露和自愿性规制等非正式规制工具的运用;提高公众环境意识,拓宽公众参与环境规制的范围和渠道;同时,还要深化产业结构调整,增强技术创新能力,促进工业经济增长方式转型。     

住宅租赁特征价格研究——以哈尔滨市为例

伴随着我国城市化进程加速,住房问题日益成为社会各界关注的焦点之一。住宅租赁市场作为房地产市场重要组成部分,对其进行研究有助于解决城市流动人口及中低收入家庭住房问题,为各参与方定价以及政府管理部门决策提供理论依据。通过分析哈尔滨市住宅租赁价格的主要影响因素,建立了住宅租赁特征价格指标体系和进行相关变量选取。构建了哈尔滨市住房租赁价格特征价格模型,并结合哈尔滨市260个住宅样本及调研数据进行实证研究,得出了哈尔滨市住宅租赁市场各住宅特征对于租金的影响权重。     

科学化历史：系统思想从素朴到科学对中国历史研究的照射

历史是艺术还是科学的论争由来已久,至今仍莫衷一是。就中国史学论之,在由传统面向现代的转型中,其作为科学的特征愈见明朗,已有学者提出历史学已经或正在科学化。在此基础上,从系统论如何影响中国历史研究的角度对这一过程作了历时性考察,要之,系统论方法即系统论所要求的整体性、多学科综合研究、结构性研究等使中国传统史学通过科学化获得了新生。     

Understanding Human and Machine Interaction from Decision Perspective: An Empirical Study Based on the Game of Go

The authors aim to interpret human and AI interactions from the decision perspective.The authors decompose the interaction analysis into the following main components in the context of interactions: Individual behavior patterns, interaction relationships, and comprehensive analysis.The authors interpret intertemporal decisions from a physical perspective and employ cross-discipline concepts and methodologies to extract the behavior characteristics of players in the empirical case study.About the...     

媒体负面报道对公司股价影响的研究:来自白酒塑化剂事件的证据

金融学理论认为,资本价格会因意外重要事件的冲击而发生变化.过去许多文献讨论过股票价格与媒体报道这一外部冲击之间是否存在显著关系,但是,这些研究所得结论并不尽一致.基于此,本文以白酒塑化剂事件为例,分析塑化剂曝光新闻数量对白酒公司股价的影响.研究表明,塑化剂曝光在较长时间内影响了白酒板块的股价,但是曝光事件对各个公司股价影响的程度不一.此外,研究还发现,中央反腐抑制了白酒板块的股价.     

现代技术系统的热力学透视

从系统论的观点来看,现代技术已发展成一个自我确证的系统。作为一种热力学规律,熵定律用于对现代技术实践进行审视具有启发意义,表现在:通过技术达到的秩序化只是一种局部秩序,结果是全球混乱;现代社会的进步只是少数人繁荣,与之共存的是多数人贫困;经济增长只是一个挪用有序度过程,而不是有序度的全球增长。在全球问题面前,不能盲目贬低技术功能,构建低熵社会和低碳生活应当充分发挥技术的作用,关键是应当用净低熵作为技术评价内在价值。     

Study on the System for Separating Sulfur from Flue Gas and Dust

1. INTRODUCTIONIt is well known that freely-flowing flue gas and dust containing SOZ will pollute the air.There are some shortcomings in the existing process for separating sulfur and dust. Thisp8Per studies the system for separating sulfur from flue gajs and dust, which adopts the newtechnology of dynamic fogging. In the papers the velocity and flow of liquid membrance, andthe separating characters of rotation now in the tower are computed, and the main factorsaffecting the sulfur separ…     

二维粗糙面的多次散射和遮蔽效应研究

利用基尔霍夫近似研究了表面均方根斜率较大的二维粗糙面的多次散射问题。在多次散射理论中,随机粗糙面的总散射功率不仅与单次散射波有关,而且还取决于多次散射波。通过将格林函数做平面波展开的方法,二阶散射系数分解成与同向波和反向波有关的两部分,同向和反向分别是按单次散射场和其共轭场的耦合方式而划分的两种不同情况。引入考虑多次散射的遮蔽函数来修正掠入射情况下的散射系数,并将计算范围扩展到均方根斜率各向异性的二维粗糙面。将考虑多次散射的数值计算结果与前后向迭代方法的数值结果做了比较,两种方法的计算结果基本一致。     

技术链视角下产业共性技术供给模式选择研究

结合共性技术研发过程及技术链分析,借鉴Stackelberg博弈思想,通过引入纵向扩散难度、技术弹性及后续开发难度等建立主从博弈模型,分析了技术链视角下共性技术供给模式及选择问题.研究发现相对政府主导和政府-市场结合模式言,市场主导模式不可取;随供给成功率增加率增大、纵向扩散难度减少、技术弹性增加(只要纵向扩散难度不太大或供给成功率增加率不太小)及上游企业影响力增加(相应政府-市场结合模式下下游企业预期收益低于政府主导模式),政府-市场结合模式上下游企业努力水平及博弈参与方预期收益均高于政府主导模式,且下游企业努力水平及收益均更晚的超过政府主导模式,反之,政府主导供给模式占优.最后,讨论了研究的管理启示.     

The demographic characteristics and economic activity patterns of carers over 50: evidence from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

Studies on informal care provision have often focused on the provision of care for persons with a long term physical or mental ill-health or disability, or problems related to old age. However, the provision of care and support more broadly, for example in the form of childcare for grandchildren, can also impact on various aspects of a carer's life, such as their employment (if under the state retirement age), lifetime earnings and, by extension, pension income in later life. This article uses data from Wave 3 of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) to explore the demographic characteristics, caring patterns, health status and economic activity patterns of carers aged over 50 in England. The results suggest that the nature of care provision differs across age groups, and that caring can be quite a different experience for older men and women. This article also sheds light on the characteristics of 'round-the-clock' carers, a relatively under-researched group which makes up just over one fifth of all carers aged 50 and over.     

高斯粗糙面透射波散射系数的基尔霍夫驻留相位法

采用高斯粗糙面来模拟实际粗糙面,根据基尔霍夫驻留相位近似法研究了粗糙面下方介质2中的电磁散射,结合高斯粗糙面的自相关函数导出了不同极化状态下高斯粗糙面透射波散射系数计算公式。通过数值计算得到了不同极化状态下高斯粗糙面透射系数随散射角、散射方位角及入射波频率变化的曲线,讨论了粗糙面参数和入射波频率对不同极化状态透射系数的影响,得出了高斯粗糙面透射系数的基本特征和随频率变化的特征。结果表明粗糙面高度起伏均方根和相关长度对高斯粗糙面透射系数有显著影响,而入射波频率则对其无影响。     

基于生育意愿的增城市人口控制研究

本研究从一个新的系统工程视角,通过对增城市市民的生育意愿调查,运用社会学、人口学、经济学的相关理论和方法,探讨增城市市民的生育意愿现状,分析其影响因素,并提出有效统筹解决人口问题的政策建议。从而引导群众优化生育意愿,科学生育,实现人口资源的科学发展。