The age difference at marriage in England and Wales: a century of patterns and trends

In the last 100 years the mean age difference at marriage in England and Wales has fluctuated in the range 2-3 years, but without exhibiting any long-run trend. Nevertheless, an age gap of 2-3 years is not typical. A 1-year gap is the most common in recent years and there is a good deal of variation between couples. Marriage partners are closer in age than would be predicted if men and women were matched at random by age. There is little evidence that the age difference is governed by strong social norms. Some explanations for diversity and change in the age difference are discussed.     

Local marriage markets in Great Britain: how diverse?

Estimates are made of the number of potential marriage partners available for unmarried men and women, by age, in Great Britain in 1991 and how this varies across local districts. The preferences of men and women in relation to partner ages are taken into account in the estimates. Average partner supply declines by age for women and increases with age for men. Marriage markets differ between local areas but the differentiation is not as substantial as in many other aspects of local demography and is a good deal less than the variation that occurs through time. Young women and older men have advantageous marriage markets almost everywhere while young men and older women are at a disadvantage in almost all areas.     

Age differences at marriage and divorce

This article explores the age difference of marrying and divorcing couples, calculated by subtracting the wife's age from the husband's. Age difference is of interest in the study of families and partnership behaviour. It is also important because of its link with broader socio-demographic changes, such as population ageing, delayed fertility and the provision of care. The main finding is that between 1963 and 2005, the distribution of age differences for all marriages is very similar in each year to the distribution of age differences for the subset of couples who married in that year, but have since divorced. While there is some evidence of small variations in the proportion of marriages that end in divorce by age difference, there does not seem to be evidence of a strong association.     

Understanding recent trends in marriage

This article explores recent trends in marriage. Following consistent falls in marriage rates in the last quarter of the 20th century the early years of this century have seen some relatively large fluctuations in marriage numbers and rates. This article illustrates some of the recent trends in marriage. One innovation is that it presents marriage data by month, controlled for the effect of peak marriage days in the week. It also discusses a recent legislative change, affecting those subject to immigration control that wish to marry, which may be one of many factors affecting latest marriage trends. Readers should bear in mind that the 2005 data shown in the article are provisional.     

Home births in the UK, 1955 to 2006

This article presents data on trends in the percentage of maternities taking place at home in the UK. As well as the national trend, the article examines how home maternity levels vary according to mother's age, number of previous live births within marriage, country of birth, region, local authority and NHS Trust. Examination of trends and variations in home maternity levels provides a context for debates regarding factors that may influence where women give birth.     

Trends in fertility and contraception in the last quarter of the 20th century

The late 1960s and early 1970s saw major changes in access to birth control. This article reviews trends in fertility and contraception between 1976 when the Family Formation Survey was undertaken and 1998, the latest year for which data are available. There has been an increase in mean age at childbirth over the period. Some of this increase is possibly a result of childbearing in second and subsequent relationships when the women will be older on average. This also has had an impact on their patterns of contraception use. Teenage pregnancy is high on the Government's agenda. Teenage pregnancy continues at constant levels. As the estimated age of first intercourse decreases, there is a continued need for sufficient, accessible and appropriate family planning services.     

1998-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries

The 1998-based national population projections, carried out by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrars General, show the population of the United Kingdom rising from 59.2 million in 1998 to over 63.5 million by 2021. Longer-term projections suggest the population will peak around 2036 and then gradually start to fall. The population will become gradually older with the median age expected to rise from 36.9 years in 1998 to nearly 42 years by 2021. In 1998, there were 1.4 million (13 per cent) more children aged under 16, than people of pensionable age. However, by 2008, the population of pensionable age is projected to exceed the number of children.     

Cohabitation and marriage in Britain since the 1970s

The article presents an overview of trends in cohabitation and marriage in Britain over several decades, using a consistent set of retrospective histories from the General Household Survey 1979-2007. Time-trends are presented, for men and women, of: the experience of different types of partnership by specified ages, the frequency of premarital cohabitation, the average time spent in different types of partnership, the timing of life course transitions, and the outcome of cohabitation and marriage at the fifth and tenth anniversaries.     

消费者地理标志农产品购买行为实证分析——基于上海、北京和郑州市消费者的调查

以上海、北京和郑州市342个消费者问卷调查数据为基础,运用二元和多元Logistic回归模型对其消费者地理标志农产品购买行为的影响因素进行分析,结果表明：性别、年龄、婚姻、文化程度、职业、个人月均收入、家庭规模、对水果质量的关注、对水果价格高低的关注、对水果原产地的关注和销售员介绍等因素影响着消费者购买行为。     

基于Logistic模型的间隙零门可靠性窗口分析

零门间隙是爆炸间隙零门功能实现的关键,间隙太长或者太短都会导致零门功能失效,因此研究使得零门功能成功实现的间隙区间亦称为可靠性窗口,具有重要的实际意义.本文在固定装药密度和通道横截面积的条件下,基于爆炸间隙零门工作机理,将可靠性窗口的两个端点设为二维随机变量,建立了端点阈值的联合分布概率模型.为了分析二维随机变量之间的相关性,本文基于二维联合Logistic分布模型,结合得分统计量,研究了可靠性窗口两端点的相关性检验方法,并给出了间隙零门可靠性窗口的估计方法.文章最后结合间隙零门试验数据,验证了可靠性窗口端点阈值之间的相关系数与0无显著性差异,并基于验证结果给出了试验数据下间隙零门的可靠性窗口估计结果.     

Childbearing outside marriage in western Europe

Across most European states in recent decades there have been significant increases in childbearing outside marriage. This article examines the extent to which women have their first child in one of four settings: prior to any partnership; in their first cohabiting partnership; in first marriage; and after a first partnership. Temporal changes in these behaviours and variation according to background characteristics of the women are also examined. For the women who had a child outside any partnership, we examine the extent to which they go on to form partnerships and how long after the birth this happens. For those who had their first child within a cohabiting union, we examine the extent to which they marry and how long after the birth this occurs. Finally, we investigate whether children born within cohabiting unions that do and do not convert into marriages are more or less likely than those born within marriage to see their parents separate.     

Unmarried parenthood: new insights from the Millennium Cohort Study

This study uses information from the Millennium Cohort Study to examine the characteristics of families where children are born within a marriage, within a cohabiting union or outside of a co-residential partnership. For this latter group, for the first time in a national data set, an assessment can be made of the 'strength' of the parent's relationship at the time of the birth. We show that the context of childbearing varies with respect to geography, ethnicity, age, parity and educational status of the mother, and that the socioeconomic wellbeing of families varies according to the partnership status of their parents. A closer look at the non-partnered parents shows that the extent to which the fathers were involved with the mother of the child around the time the baby was born was related to the presence of the father at the birth of the child and whether his name was recorded on the child's birth certificate; as well as to subsequent behaviour, such as, whether they moved in with the mother, saw their children on a regular basis or contributed money to the child's maintenance.     

构建和谐社会人与自然和谐相处的系统思考

本文以系统论思想为指导,把人与自然视为一个系统,以构建和谐社会人与自然和谐相处为宗旨,全面论述了人与自然关系的系统演变、系统整体思想、系统辩证思想、系统和谐思想,以营造贵和环境,建设和谐社会。     

New estimates of trends in births by birth order in England and Wales

A greater understanding of past, present and future trends in fertility can be gained from analysing trends in birth order; that is whether a birth is a first, second, third or higher order birth. However, under current legislation, birth order information is not collected at registration for births outside marriage and birth order recorded within marriage is not the true birth order. This article presents revised and updated estimates of true birth order. It discusses the construction of the new estimates and presents analysis relating the births by true birth order to the population of women by parity on both a period (fertility in a particular year) and cohort (fertility of women born in a particular year) basis. The new true birth order figures are also compared to the previous set of estimates.     

我国农业节水技术进步贡献率的测算

采用增长速度方程，对我国农业节水技术进步贡献率进行研究，我国农业节水进步贡献率为10．34％。但与发达国家相比还有较大差距，因此，必须大力提倡技术创新。为农业节水的持续发展奠定基础。参8。     

基于不确定性度量的作战能力对比评估方法

为使评估结果能够反映出评估对象作战能力之间的差距,提出基于不确定性度量的作战能力对比评估方法.首先建立了作战能力测度概念模型,采用相对于参照对象完成任务时减少的不确定性程度来度量评估对象的作战能力;然后探讨了把作战能力指标转换为具有可能性含义指标的预处理方法;在此基础上,借鉴信息论中对不确定性的处理方法,构建了能力度数学模型,详细讨论了其特征和军事含义,并提出了绝对能力度和平均能力度扩展模型;最后通过一个案例对方法的可行性和有效性进行验证和分析。结果表明:应用该方法进行作战能力评估,不仅能够得到传统评估方法所得到的排序结果,而且能够反映出作战能力评估值之间数量上的差距。     

汽车点火系统次级线圈火花电流的理论计算

基于Rompe-Weizel火花电阻公式和火花塞的分布电容参数,建立了汽车点火系统次级线圈电容放电的等效电路模型,获得了火花塞间隙击穿过程中由于电容放电引起的火花电流的大小.分析了火花塞的结构尺寸及电阻的大小和位置,以及火花间隙的击穿电压对电容放电引起的火花干扰电流的影响.这对汽车的电磁兼容研究有一定的意义.     

模具粗加工的自适应层切算法仿真研究

分析了基于层切法的零件模具数控粗加工方法,提出了以层面间台阶最大差值为自适应参量的自适应模具数控粗加工方法;对约束条件进行了详细说明,阐述了自适应层切方法的具体步骤及算法流程图。利用已开发的层切法仿真软件平台,进行了三维模型层切法实例仿真分析。分析结果表明,应用该方法可以进一步减少层切法粗加工残留材料体积,对提高层切法模具数控粗加工效率具有实际意义。     

企业社会责任、购买意愿与购买行为——主动性人格与自我效能有调节的中介作用

理性行为理论认为，意愿是行为的有效预测变量；但企业社会责任相关研究表明，消费者的购买意愿与购买行为之间存在着巨大的差距。为了探究消费者响应企业社会责任行为对购买意愿的影响，并进而对购买行为的影响，以及购买意愿与购买行为之间的差距，构建了一个包含企业社会责任、购买意愿、购买行为、主动性人格与效能感的研究框架，通过情景化的自我报告问卷调查方法对研究框架进行了检验。研究结果表明：① 消费者一般会积极响应企业社会责任行为，其购买意愿部分中介企业社会责任与实际购买行为之间的关系；② 消费者由企业社会责任产生的购买意愿与购买行为之间存在较大的差距，企业社会责任可以解释25%的购买意愿，却只能解释20%的购买行为；③ 消费者主动性人格或效能感水平较高时，购买意愿对企业社会责任与购买行为之间关系的中介作用更强，可以有效减小伦理消费的意向-行为差距。     

逃离“北上广深”背景下一线城市房价涟漪效应研究

本文基于逃离"北上广深"背景,研究了一线城市对二三线城市的房价涟漪效应,并从城市规模大小、距一线城市远近和涟漪效应高低三个方面,对比分析各因素对涟漪效应的影响.研究发现:1)逃离"北上广深"背景下,产业相似度、生活舒适性差距、交通便捷性、住房市场信息距离、社会文化距离、就业增长率、开放度和总储蓄均对涟漪效应表现出显著促进作用;2)二线城市各因素的影响程度均大于三线城市;3)随着与一线城市距离的增加,产业相似度、交通便捷性、就业增长率和开放度的影响呈递减趋势,生活舒适性差距呈递增趋势,住房市场信息距离和总储蓄基本与距离无关;4)随分位数提高,多数变量的影响程度增强,表现出"加速效应".