两种群相互竞争具有脉冲预防接种的SIR传染病模型

研究了一类具有脉冲预防接种的两种群相互竞争S(易感染者)-I(感染者)-R(治愈者)传染病模型,讨论了平衡点的存在性和局部渐进稳定性,脉冲接种有效的预防种群内,及其竞争种群间传染病的传播和蔓延。该接种方法可以在珍稀物种中推广。     

The abundance threshold for plague as a critical percolation phenomenon

Percolation theory is most commonly associated with the slow flow of liquid through a porous medium, with applications to the physical sciences. Epidemiological applications have been anticipated for disease systems where the host is a plant or volume of soil, and hence is fixed in space. However, no natural examples have been reported. The central question of interest in percolation theory, the possibility of an infinite connected cluster, corresponds in infectious disease to a positive probability of an epidemic. Archived records of plague (infection with Yersinia pestis) in populations of great gerbils (Rhombomys opimus) in Kazakhstan have been used to show that epizootics only occur when more than about 0.33 of the burrow systems built by the host are occupied by family groups. The underlying mechanism for this abundance threshold is unknown. Here we present evidence that it is a percolation threshold, which arises from the difference in scale between the movements that transport infectious fleas between family groups and the vast size of contiguous landscapes colonized by gerbils. Conventional theory predicts that abundance thresholds for the spread of infectious disease arise when transmission between hosts is density dependent such that the basic reproduction number (R(0)) increases with abundance, attaining 1 at the threshold. Percolation thresholds, however, are separate, spatially explicit thresholds that indicate long-range connectivity in a system and do not coincide with R(0) = 1. Abundance thresholds are the theoretical basis for attempts to manage infectious disease by reducing the abundance of susceptibles, including vaccination and the culling of wildlife. This first natural example of a percolation threshold in a disease system invites a re-appraisal of other invasion thresholds, such as those for epidemic viral infections in African lions (Panthera leo), and of other disease systems such as bovine tuberculosis (caused by Mycobacterium bovis) in badgers (Meles meles).     

陕西濒危野生动物的现状

依据《中国濒危动物红皮书（1998）》，将陕西有关的濒危野生动物列表标出其受胁等级，并与国家重点保护野生动物名录进行比较，从中分析陕西濒危野生动物的现状，提出进一步做好陕西濒危物种保护工作的建议。     

安徽濒危野生动物在世界物种红色名录中的等级划分

依据IUCN2000年红色名录,将安徽省有关的濒危动物列表标出其受胁等级,并与国家重点保护野生动物名录进行比较,从中分析IUCN红色名录列出的安徽野生动物物种在国家重点保护野生动物名录中的地位,提出进一步做好安徽濒危物种保护工作的建议。     

信息的滞后性诱导传染病的周期爆发

通常情况下,一种传染病的爆发往往会引起人们某种行为方式的改变,如减少外出、接种疫苗、注意卫生等,这些行为方式的改变又会对疾病的传播方式和控制效果产生很大影响.为了刻画这类行为方式改变的影响,在本文中提出一个改进的SIRS传播模型：易感染者可以处于两种状态——无保护态（Su）和保护态（Sp）.易感染个体根据对疾病风险的估计在无保护态和保护态之间不断切换,从Su到Sp的转移概率随着感染人数的增加而增加,反之,从Sp到Su的转移概率随着感染人数的增加而减小.同时,我们假设个体对风险的估计依赖于他们对疾病风险信息的了解程度.通过Monte-Carlo和MarkovChain方法,发现对传染病风险判断的滞后性会导致传染病的周期爆发.     

媒体宣传影响下的脉冲控制双菌株SIR传染病模型

研究了一类媒体宣传影响下的脉冲控制双菌株SIR传染病模型.把脉冲控制策略应用于双菌株SIR传染病模型,分析了该模型无病周期解的稳定性,得到了疾病一致持续生存的充分性条件.     

具有脉冲预防接种的SIQR流行病数学模型

讨论了一类具有脉冲预防接种且传染率为双线性的SIQR传染病模型.在脉冲预防接种下,分析了无病周期解的存在性和全局渐近稳定性.     

基于信息干预的SIRS传染病模型稳定性分析

建立了一类基于信息干预和疫苗接种的SIRS传染病模型, 研究了该模型的全局渐近稳定性, 给出了疾病持久和灭绝的基本再生数?₀.研究结果表明:当?₀ < 1时, 该模型存在全局渐近稳定的无病平衡点; 当?₀>1时, 该模型存在全局渐近稳定的地方病平衡点.数值算例验证了理论分析结果.     

河南省龟类分布新记录:潘氏闭壳龟

潘氏闭壳龟是中国的特有龟类,已被华盛顿公约(CITES附录Ⅱ)列为珍稀濒危物种,是我国二级重点保护野生动物,定为"极危(CR)"等级.近年在河南信阳发现野生潘氏闭壳龟6只,是目前我国发现野生潘氏闭壳龟数量最多的地区,对其形态参数进行了测量.     

Metapopulation dynamics of bubonic plague

Bubonic plague is widely regarded as a disease of mainly historical importance; however, with increasing reports of incidence and the discovery of antibiotic-resistant strains of the plague bacterium Yersinia pestis, it is re-emerging as a significant health concerns. Here we bypass the conventional human-disease models, and propose that bubonic plague is driven by the dynamics of the disease in the rat population. Using a stochastic, spatial metapopulation model, we show that bubonic plague can persist in relatively small rodent populations from which occasional human epidemics arise, without the need for external imports. This explains why historically the plague persisted despite long disease-free periods, and how the disease re-occurred in cities with tight quarantine control. In a contemporary setting, we show that human vaccination cannot eradicate the plague, and that culling of rats may prevent or exacerbate human epidemics, depending on the timing of the cull. The existence of plague reservoirs in wild rodent populations has important public-health implications for the transmission to urban rats and the subsequent risk of human outbreaks.     

Large-scale eradication of rabies using recombinant vaccinia-rabies vaccine.

Rabies infection of domestic and wild animals is a serious problem throughout the world. The major disease vector in Europe is the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and rabies control has focused on vaccinating and/or culling foxes. Culling has not been effective, and the distribution of five vaccine baits is the only appropriate method for the vaccination of wild foxes. Although some European countries have conducted field vaccination campaigns using attenuated rabies virus strains, their use has not been extensively approved because they retain pathogenicity for rodents and can revert to virulence. These strains cannot be used in North America because they are pathogenic for the striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis) and are ineffective in the raccoon (Procyon lotor). We have constructed a recombinant vaccinia virus, VVTGgRAB, expressing the surface glycoprotein (G) of rabies virus (ERA strain). The recombinant was a highly effective vaccine in experimental animals, in captive foxes and in raccoons. We report here the results of a large-scale campaign of fox vaccination in a 2,200 km2 region of southern Belgium, an area in which rabies is prevalent. After distribution, 81% of foxes inspected were positive for tetracycline, a biomarker included in the vaccine bait and, other than one rabid fox detected close to the periphery of the treated area, no case of rabies, either in foxes or in domestic livestock, has been reported in the area.     

Genetic segregation and the maintenance of sexual reproduction

Sexual reproduction confronts evolutionary biology with a paradox: other things being equal, an asexual (all-female) population will have twice the reproductive potential of a competing sexual population and therefore should rapidly drive the sexual population to extinction. Thus, the persistence of sexual reproduction in most life forms implies a compensatory advantage to sexual reproduction. Work on this problem has emphasized the evolutionary advantages produced by the genetic recombination that accompanies sexual reproduction. Here we show that genetic segregation produces an advantage to sexual reproduction even in the absence of an advantage from recombination. Segregation in a diploid sexual population allows selection to carry a single advantageous mutation to a homozygous state, whereas two separate mutations are required in a parthenogenetic population. The complete fixation of advantageous mutations is thus delayed in a heterozygous state in asexual populations. Calculation of the selective load incurred suggests that it may offset the intrinsic twofold reproductive advantage of asexual reproduction and maintain sexual reproduction in diploid populations.     

The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa

Although vaccination has almost eliminated measles in parts of the world, the disease remains a major killer in some high birth rate countries of the Sahel. On the basis of measles dynamics for industrialized countries, high birth rate regions should experience regular annual epidemics. Here, however, we show that measles epidemics in Niger are highly episodic, particularly in the capital Niamey. Models demonstrate that this variability arises from powerful seasonality in transmission-generating high amplitude epidemics-within the chaotic domain of deterministic dynamics. In practice, this leads to frequent stochastic fadeouts, interspersed with irregular, large epidemics. A metapopulation model illustrates how increased vaccine coverage, but still below the local elimination threshold, could lead to increasingly variable major outbreaks in highly seasonally forced contexts. Such erratic dynamics emphasize the importance both of control strategies that address build-up of susceptible individuals and efforts to mitigate the impact of large outbreaks when they occur.     

Dynamic biogeography and conservation of endangered species

As one moves from the core to the periphery of a species' geographical range, populations occupy less favourable habitats and exhibit lower and more variable densities. Populations along the periphery of the range tend to be more fragmented and, as a result, are less likely to receive immigrants from other populations. A population's probability of extinction is directly correlated with its variability and inversely correlated with density and immigration rate. This has led to the prediction that, when a species becomes endangered, its geographical range should contract inwards, with the core populations persisting until the final stages of decline. Convinced by these logical but untested deductions, conservation biologists and wildlife managers have been instructed to avoid the range periphery when planning conservation strategies or allocating resources for endangered species. We have analysed range contraction in 245 species from a broad range of taxonomic groups and geographical regions. Here we report that observed patterns of range contraction do not support the above predictions and that most species examined persist in the periphery of their historical geographical ranges.     

具捕杀效应的SEI狂犬病模型的空间动力学分析

为讨论针对性的捕杀对狂犬病传播的影响,研究了一类具捕杀效应的易感者-潜伏期感染者-已经感染者(SEI)狂犬病模型.通过相应的特征值问题,引入基本再生数,并利用上下解方法建立了平衡点的稳定性.结果表明:有针对性的捕杀对狂犬病的控制和预防起着重要的作用.     

Local migration promotes competitive restraint in a host-pathogen 'tragedy of the commons'

Fragmented populations possess an intriguing duplicity: even if subpopulations are reliably extinction-prone, asynchrony in local extinctions and recolonizations makes global persistence possible. Migration is a double-edged sword in such cases: too little migration prevents recolonization of extinct patches, whereas too much synchronizes subpopulations, raising the likelihood of global extinction. Both edges of this proverbial sword have been explored by manipulating the rate of migration within experimental populations. However, few experiments have examined how the evolutionary ecology of fragmented populations depends on the pattern of migration. Here, we show that the migration pattern affects both coexistence and evolution within a community of bacterial hosts (Escherichia coli) and viral pathogens (T4 coliphage) distributed across a large network of subpopulations. In particular, different patterns of migration select for distinct pathogen strategies, which we term 'rapacious' and 'prudent'. These strategies define a 'tragedy of the commons': rapacious phage displace prudent variants for shared host resources, but prudent phage are more productive when alone. We find that prudent phage dominate when migration is spatially restricted, while rapacious phage evolve under unrestricted migration. Thus, migration pattern alone can determine whether a de novo tragedy of the commons is resolved in favour of restraint.     

广西植被资源保护现状与策略

【目的】全面了解广西植被资源保护现状、受威胁原因及保护空缺,为制定广西植被资源保护策略和生物多样性保护行动计划提供科学依据。【方法】在全面收集广西植被资源信息数据的基础上,通过比较分析和空缺分析,揭示植被资源保护现状及受威胁原因。【结果】植被保护成效显著：建立了较完善的植被保护法律、法规体系,建立各种类型的自然保护区78个,面积达145.90万hm2,占广西国土面积的6.17%;这些自然保护区保存了广西40大片原生性最好的天然阔叶林,保护了广西90%的野生动植物种群和80%以上的森林植被类型,保护了全区19.8%的自然湿地和70%的重要湿地。植被保护现状：天然植被退化的严重局面还没有从根本上得到有效遏制,一些特有、珍稀植被资源尚未得到有效的保护,经济社会高速发展对天然植被保护的约束压力加大,天然植被缩小、人工植被扩大,植被的生态功能下降。植被受威胁的原因主要是：人口过快增长、城市化和土地开发、森林火灾、病虫害、气候灾害、桉树人工林的无序发展、湿地开垦与污染等。植被保护空缺仍然较大,有66种森林、17种竹林、72种灌丛、45种草丛、120种水生植被尚未得到有效保护。提出了广西植被资源保护的重点区域和重点保护类型。【结论】广西植被资源基本得到保护,但保护与开发利用之间的矛盾尖锐,构筑国土生态屏障和经营优质生态资产的任务任重道远。     

Modelling vaccination strategies against foot-and-mouth disease

Vaccination has proved a powerful defence against a range of infectious diseases of humans and animals. However, its potential to control major epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in livestock is contentious. Using an individual farm-based model, we consider either national prophylactic vaccination campaigns in advance of an outbreak, or combinations of reactive vaccination and culling strategies during an epidemic. Consistent with standard epidemiological theory, mass prophylactic vaccination could reduce greatly the potential for a major epidemic, while the targeting of high-risk farms increases efficiency. Given sufficient resources and preparation, a combination of reactive vaccination and culling might control ongoing epidemics. We also explore a reactive strategy, 'predictive' vaccination, which targets key spatial transmission loci and can reduce markedly the long tail that characterizes many FMD epidemics. These analyses have broader implications for the control of human and livestock infectious diseases in heterogeneous spatial landscapes.     

野生动物与人类共患疾病初探

以野生动物为病源的SARS的暴发和流行，使得人们更加关注野生动物传染性疾病对人类健康的威胁．尤其是近30年来新出现的各种传染病的自然宿主几乎都是野生动物，新的野生动物传染病的出现。迫切地要求我们如何避免和对待这种疾病的再度发生，如何处理人与野生动物之问的关系等问题．解决这些问题的根本在于人类应该认识自身的位置，尊重自然和其它生物。采取各种有效的方法措施，保障人类与野生动物的安全接触．人类要懂得，只要保证生态系统和生物多样性的健康，才能真正维护人类自身的继康．     

Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming

As the Earth warms, many species are likely to disappear, often because of changing disease dynamics. Here we show that a recent mass extinction associated with pathogen outbreaks is tied to global warming. Seventeen years ago, in the mountains of Costa Rica, the Monteverde harlequin frog (Atelopus sp.) vanished along with the golden toad (Bufo periglenes). An estimated 67% of the 110 or so species of Atelopus, which are endemic to the American tropics, have met the same fate, and a pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) is implicated. Analysing the timing of losses in relation to changes in sea surface and air temperatures, we conclude with 'very high confidence' (> 99%, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) that large-scale warming is a key factor in the disappearances. We propose that temperatures at many highland localities are shifting towards the growth optimum of Batrachochytrium, thus encouraging outbreaks. With climate change promoting infectious disease and eroding biodiversity, the urgency of reducing greenhouse-gas concentrations is now undeniable.