Decadal variation of different durations of continuous Meiyu precipitation and the possible cause

The features of the decadal evolution of different durations of continuous Meiyu precipitation and their possible cause from the viewpoint of the low-level intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) are examined in this study. It is found that the total frequency of Meiyu precipitation events of certain duration gradually decreases as the duration of the events increases, and the main center of the events moves from the northern Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley (YHRV) to the southern YHRV. The linear trends of different durations of continuous Meiyu precipitation indicate that longer-duration precipitation has become significantly less frequent since 2000, while 2-day and 3?C4-day continuous precipitation processes have become more frequent. At the same time, a close relationship between the variation in the low-level ISO and the decadal evolution of frequency of longer-duration Meiyu precipitation is detected. Clearly, since 2000, the low-level ISO has significantly decreased, and a single peak of longer-duration events has been replaced by several peaks of shorter-duration events, which has resulted in a significant decrease in the frequency of longer-duration precipitation. Meanwhile, low-level baroclinicity increased (decreased) during each period, which is in accordance with the increasing (decreasing) frequency of longer-duration precipitation. It is confirmed that longer-duration precipitation has significantly decreased in recent years.     

Simulation of 1991–2005 Meiyu seasons in the Yangtze-Huaihe region using BCC_RegCM 1.0

By using BCC_RegCM 1.0 (RegCM for short) from Beijing Climate Center (BCC), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the Meiyu season characters over the Yangtze-Huaihe region during 1991-2005 are simulated. The major conclusions of this study may be summarized as the following: (1) RegCM can reproduce the interannual variation and the spatial distribution of the summertime precipitation and temperature in the Yangtze-Huaihe region. (2) By use of a generalized Meiyu criterion and in accordance with model-...     

江淮流域梅雨期雨量的变化特征及其与太平洋海温的相关关系及年代际差异

运用相关分析和滑动相关方法,分析了江淮流域5个代表站1903-2000年梅雨期雨量的变化特征及其与太平洋海温的相关关系及年代际差异.结果表明,江淮地区梅雨期雨量在近百年来存在明显的年际和年代际变化特征.通过分析梅雨期雨量与太平洋海温的年代际相关特征发现,江淮流域梅雨期雨量与前期及同期太平洋海温关系密切,前一年冬季及梅雨期东北太平洋海温与江淮流域梅雨期雨量负相关,在热带东太平洋的Nino1 2区两者正相关显著,同年春季西太平洋部分海域海温与江淮流域梅雨期雨量正相关.从年际相关分析发现,前一年冬季太平洋海温与梅雨期雨量正相关,同年春季以及梅雨期两者相关不明显.通过分析年代际差异发现,江淮流域梅雨期雨量与前期及同期热带太平洋关键区海温的21a滑动相关存在显著的年代际差异,这种差异与海温的21a滑动平均的年代际冷暖背景关系密切,热带太平洋海温关键区前一年冬季冷海温背景下,梅雨期雨量同海温正相关显著,同年春季暖海温背景下,两者之间负相关显著,而江淮流域梅雨期雨量同中国近海海温之间(从冬季到梅雨期)维持显著的正相关,与该区海温冷暖背景的关系则并不明显.     

基于自组织映射的梅雨期西太副高分型及降水特征研究

为了研究梅雨期西太副高的变化特征及其对梅雨降水的影响,本文利用1951-2016年西太副高监测指数,采用自组织映射（self-organizing map,SOM）方法对梅雨期西太副高进行聚类分析,得到9种SOM分型,并利用中国1km分辨率逐月降水量数据集和中国雨季历年信息表进行不同西太副高分型下梅雨降水的特征分析。结果表明,9种梅雨期西太副高分型对应着多种不同的梅雨降水特征：纬向上,当西太副高偏东时,梅雨区降水强度偏低,反之则强度偏高。经向上,在西太副高主体位于我国陆地的前提下,脊线指数高于25°N时,梅雨区大部被副热带高压控制,整体降水偏少且有小幅度南少北多态势;脊线指数偏低时,副高控制梅雨区南部边缘或更南地区,水汽输送导致降水整体偏多。本文得到了不同类型副高与梅雨降水特征的对应关系,也说明SOM方法能较好地对副热带高压等气象要素做出客观分型,并进行气候现象的相关性研究。     

Interannual variability of the Meiyu onset over Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley and analyses of its previous strong influence signal

Meiyu onset (MO) over Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley (YHRV) possesses obvious characteristics of interannual variations. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets, NOAA OLR and ERSST data, the in-terannual variability of MO(IVMO) and its previous strong influence signal (PSIS) are investigated. The possible mechanisms that the PSIS affecting IVMO are also discussed. The results show that the pre-vious CP-ENSO (Central Pacific El Nio/Southern Oscillation) event is the PSIS affecting IVMO and it has a better accu...     

基于EOF和REOF分析江淮梅雨量的时空分布

基于江淮梅雨区域50个气象台站1960-2002年的梅雨量资料,利用EOF、REOF展开方法,分析了江淮梅雨降水的空间分布及时间演变特征.EOF展开方法表明江淮梅雨前三个特征向量累积方差贡献比例为88.9%,其主要特征是三个特征向量场呈现纬向带状分布;第一特征向量场空间分布均为正值,说明江淮梅雨量的干湿变化具有一致性,但是各特征向量场之间的特点相差明显.REOF展开方法表明可以把江淮梅雨划分为6个典型的梅雨量场;后一个时间系数序列的变化幅度比前一个时间序列要小;主成分旋转后载荷要比旋转前分布均匀得多;第一时间系数的变化等同于各站平均梅雨量变化.     

Numerical simulation of Meiyu front and the diagnosis of moist vorticity vector

Moist vorticity vector is introduced to study the development and evolution of mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) in the Meiyu front precipitation with the Advanced Regional Predication System (ARPS). In this study, the heavy rainfall is simulated to investigate the genesis, development and dissipation of middle scale convective vortex, which occurred from 0000 UTC 3 July to 1200 UTC 5 July over the Jianghuai River valley. Moist vorticity vector (MVV) has zonal, radial and vertical components in its 3D spatial distribution. The simulation shows that the vertical component of moist vorticity vector well demonstrates the spatial distribution characteristics of middle scale convective vortex, especially in the process of Meiyu front precipitation. Diagnosis upon zonal, radial averaged and mass-integrated quantities of MVV shows that its vertical component and the surface precipitating ratio are in phase with a correlation coefficient of 0.68, indicating that the vertical component of MVV is closely associated with the Meiyu front precipitation. In addition, the tendency of the vertical component of MVV is mainly determined by the interaction between the vorticity and the zonal and radial gradient of condensational or depositional heating.     

Numerical simulation of Meiyu front and the diagnosis of moist vorticity vector

Moist vorticity vector is introduced to study the development and evolution of mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) in the Meiyu front precipitation with the Advanced Regional Predication System (ARPS). In this study, the heavy rainfall is simulated to investigate the genesis, development and dissipation of middle scale convective vortex, which occurred from 0000 UTC 3 July to 1200 UTC 5 July over the Jianghuai River valley. Moist vorticity vector (MVV) has zonal, radial and vertical components in its 3D spatial distribution. The simulation shows that the vertical component of moist vorticity vector well demonstrates the spatial distribution characteristics of middle scale convective vortex, especially in the process of Meiyu front precipitation. Diagnosis upon zonal, radial averaged and mass-integrated quantities of MVV shows that its vertical component and the surface precipitating ratio are in phase with a correlation coefficient of 0.68, indicating that the vertical component of MVV is closely associated with the Meiyu front precipitation. In addition, the tendency of the vertical component of MVV is mainly determined by the interaction between the vorticity and the zonal and radial gradient of condensational or depositional heating.     

人工神经网络方法在短期天气预报中的应用

将人工神经网络方法试用于南京夏季短期降水分级预报,根据南京夏季梅雨期的天气特点,用统计和动力学方法从HLAFS(高分辨率有限区域预报系统)预报产品中寻找预报因子,然后用2种方法选取输入因子分别对人工神经网络进行训练,并利用抽取的5天雨量实况作降水分级预报检验.通过对人工神经网络方法预报降水的结果与HLAFS降水预报以及逐步回归预报的结果对比发现:与HLAFS数值模式的降水预报相比,人工神经网络降水预报方法的准确率提高了20%以上,而且漏报、错报明显减少;特别是与逐步回归预报相比,大到暴雨的预报准确率得到了明显提高,这一研究表明人工神经网络方法在短期天气预报中也会有较大的应用价值.     

郑州市夏季降水的变化特征

利用1955—2011年郑州市夏季降水日逐分钟降水量,对郑州市降水日的降水量及其场次的年内和年际变化进行分析.结果表明:郑州市1981—2010年夏季降水量场次及其降水量平均分别为42.7场和8.4 mm,二者均有显著的变化趋势,气候倾向率分别为-2.2场/10a和0.56 mm/10a.郑州市场次降水平均持续时间和实际维持时间具有显著的线性相关关系.不管用场次降水量最长持续时间与其对应降水量的关系,还是利用场次最大降水量与其对应持续时间的关系,均表明随着时间的延长,降水量的数值会增加,反之依然.     

Meiyu in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River since 1736

＂Yu Xue Fen Cun＂ records during the Qing Dynasty are used to identify the starting and ending dates of Meiyu at the period of 1736-1911. These results, along with the instrumental meteorological records, are used to reconstruct the series of length and precipitation of Meiyu during 1736-2000 over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The characteristics of Meiyu are analyzed since 1736. Moreover, the strength of East Asian Summer Monsoon and locations of rainband are discussed, based on the relationship between the length of Meiyu and the Index of East Asian Summer Monsoon. It is found that the starting and ending dates and the length of Meiyu have significant interannual and interdecadal variations. Apart from 7-8 years, 20-30 years and 40 years cycles for the lengths of Meiyu, the centennial oscillation is also presented. The length of Meiyu, monsoon rainband movement over eastern China, and the strength of East Asian Summer Monsoon （EASM） have a very good correlation, which can be expressed in the following： during the periods of 1736-1770, 1821-1870 and 1921-1970, the EASM was stronger, and the monsoon rainband was located in North China and South China easily, corresponding to the decreased length of Meiyu. Whereas during the periods of 1771-1820, 1871-1920 and 1971-2000, the EASM was weaker and monsoon rainband usually stopped at the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, corresponding to the increased length of Meiyu.     

2003年江淮连续梅雨暴雨过程的中尺度数值试验

为了分析天气研究及预报WRF(weather research and forecasting)模式对我国天气现象的适用性,利用WRF模式对2003年淮河汛期的3次梅雨锋暴雨过程进行了一组数值模拟试验,对3次天气过程模拟试验采用相同的参数设置,模拟区域根据实况降水落区作了相应设置.模拟结果分析表明,WRF模式能有效模拟我国梅雨锋暴雨的环流背景和天气形势,较好地反映影响暴雨的中尺度系统的发生和发展等特征,还可以较好地模拟出雨带的范围、位置和走向,对降水中心的模拟基本可用.     

1998年二度梅雨锋的演变及结构特征

应用气象常规资料对1998-07-21-24日暴雨时段的二度梅雨锋的演变和其不同阶段的水平、垂直结构进行了诊断分析,确认了二度梅雨锋结构的一些普遍特征,如在对流层低层表现为θe锋而不是温度的强烈对比;同时揭示了1998-07的二度梅雨锋结构不同于一般梅雨锋的典型特征:700 hPa以下的梅雨锋向南倾斜或近乎垂直,切变线位于梅雨锋南侧,梅雨锋具有相当正压性.结果还表明:1998年二度梅雨锋结构不同于温带锋面结构,而是更倾向于赤道辐合带的性质,并且在各个阶段其结构并不完全相同.     

Diurnal variations of summer precipitation in Beijing

Climatic characteristics and secular trends of diurnal variations of summer precipitation in Beijing are studied using hourly self-recording rain-gauge data during 1961-2004. The results show that both rainfall amount and rainfall frequency present high values from late afternoon to early morning and reach the minima around noon. Two separate peaks can be identified in the high value period, one in the late afternoon and the other in the early morning. Taking the rainfall duration into account, it is found that the rainfall during late afternoon to midnight mainly comes from the short-duration rainfall events （an event of 1-6 hours in duration）, while the rainfall during midnight to early morning is accumulated mostly by the long-duration rainfall events （an event that lasts longer than 6 hours）. In the recent 40 years, the summer precipitation in Beijing has been considerably restructured. The total rainfall amount of short-duration events has increased significantly, while the total rainfall amount of Iong-duration events has decreased.     

Regional relationship between the Jiang-Huai Meiyu and the equatorial surface-subsurface temperature anomalies

The Jiang-Huai Meiyu rainy season can be distinguished into the Jiangnan Meiyu spell and the Huaihe Meiyu spell. The Jiangnan Meiyu spell appears on the last ten days in June and the Huaihe Meiyu spell lasts from early July to middle July. An inter-decadal transition was observed in 1998 respectively from the anomalies of Jiangnan Meiyu rainfall, the sea surface temperature (SST), and the subsurface tem- perature in the equatorial Pacific. Since the beginning of the 21^_st century, opposite trends and biennial oscillations of the Meiyu rainfall are observed in the Jiangnan and Huaihe basins. Before the strong La Niña of 1999―2000, the positive SST anomalies usually occurred in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Since the beginning of the 21^_st century, a precursory warming signal of SST anomaly comes from the subsurface temperature which is centrally exposed near the dateline in the central equatorial Pacific. The above-normal Meiyu rainfall in 2003, 2005 and 2007 over the Huaihe basin followed the prior winter- spring positive SST anomaly near the dateline. A relationship shows that the more Jiangnan (Huaihe) Meiyu follows the winter-spring warm water in the eastern (central) equatorial Pacific.     

福建盆谷型农业小流域氮磷流失模式分析——以漳州市五川流域为例

利用现场连续采样监测分析和模型模拟确定了福建盆谷型农业小流域不同水文时期农业氮磷迁移和流失的模式和关键源区.2002年每月基流时期的水质采样分析表明:可溶态氮从流域的源头区到流域的出口区表现为上升的趋势,但是可溶态磷却表现为下降的趋势.由于小流域内部土壤空间的物理和化学性质的分异,流域源头区是可溶态磷的关键源区,而流域的出口区是可溶态氮的关键源区.通过用实测数据检验后的agri-cultural non-point source model模型,确定了流域两侧的坡地区是可溶态氮磷流失和迁移的关键源区.     

Meridional seesaw-like distribution of the Meiyu rainfall over the Changjiang-Huaihe River Valley and characteristics in the anomalous climate years

Although Meiyu rainfall has its in-phase spatial variability over the Changjiang-Huaihe River Valley (CHRV) in most years, it is distributed in some years like a seesaw to the north and south of the Changjiang River, when the precipitation tends to be nearly normal throughout the valley, which would inevitably increase difficulties of making short-term prediction of the rainfall. For this reason, EOF analysis is made on 15 related stations’ precipitation from June to July during 1951─2004, revealing that the EOF2 mode shows largely a north-south seesaw-like pattern, and thereby classifying Meiyu patterns into two types: "northern drought and southern flood (NDSF)" and "northern flood and southern drought (NFSD)". Afterwards, the authors investigated ocean-atmospheric characteristics when these two anomalous types occured using the NCEP reanalysis (version 1) and the extended reconstructed SSTs (version 2). The results show that in the NDSF years, the low-level frontal area and moisture convergence center lie more southward, accompanied by weaker subtropical summer mon- soon over East Asia, with the western Pacific subtropical high and 200 hPa South Asia High being more southward. Both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere Annular Modes are stronger than normal in preceding February; SST is higher off China during boreal winter and spring and the opposite happens in the NFSD years. Also, this seesaw-form Meiyu rainfall distribution might be affected to some degree by the previous ENSO event.     

基于遗传算法的BP网络在梅雨量预测中的应用

论讨基于遗传算法的BP网络在安徽省安庆市区梅雨量预测中的应用,并对优化BP网络结构和连接权的遗传算法做了阐述。     

“Climate effect” of the northeast cold vortex and its influences on Meiyu

The Northeast Cold Vortex (NECV) is an important weather system in the middle and high latitudes in East Asia. Its time scale is synoptic, yet the frequent activities of NECV have significant "climate effect" which influences not only the monthly temperature in the lower troposphere in Northeast China but also the Meiyu rainfall in East Asia. On the basis of ERA-40 reanalysis data provided by ECMWF, the "climate effect" of NECV and its relationship with Meiyu in East Asia are studied. It is shown that there is significant correlation between NECV during the Meiyu period and rainfall amount: strong NECV corresponds to more Meiyu rainfall and weak NECV corresponds to less rainfall. In strong NECV years, the dry and cold air from the north is led to the south by NECV, converges with the lower-level warm and wet southwesterly on the north verge of Meiyu region, thus forms an unstable stratification of "upper dryness and lower wetness" . Triggered by ascending motion, the Meiyu rainfall amount is more than usual. It is on the contrary in weak NECV years. The anomalous SST in north Pacific in the previ-ous year may be a factor that results in the anomalous NECV at Meiyu period. The land-sea thermal contrast in summer facilitates NECV, while that in winter inhibits NECV. All of the above provide a meaningful result for the short-term climate prediction of NECV and Meiyu.     

Kuo(1965,1974)和Anthes(1977)对流参数化方案对降水影响的数值研究

本文应用11层原始方程模式和一次实际降水个例对 Kuo(1965)、Kuo(1974)以及Anthes(1977)对流参数化方案进行了初步试验,结果表明:考虑对流参数化后降水强度增加,但对降水落区影响很小,其中 Anthes(1977)方案对降水的增加最多,Kuo(1965)方案增加最少.在三种参数化方案中,Kuo(1974)方案模拟出的对流降水比重最高,Anthes(1977)方案的对流降水比重最低,但是 Anthes(1977)方案的反馈作用却最大,其影响的大尺度降水比不考虑对流作用时高出近10倍.由于模式还不够完善,降水的模拟与实况相比还有一定差距,但初步的结论是 Anthes(1977)对流参数化方案效果较好,Kuo(1974)方案次之,不考虑对流作用时模拟的降水强度与实际相比太小。