后危机时代经济周期波动国际联动的网络结构

采用2009—2019年71个经济体的季度数据和Granger因果关系检验方法确定经济周期波动国际联动的网络结构,利用社会网络分析法从出入度、中心性、PageRank得分、凝聚子群、核心—边缘结构等角度对其进行分析。研究发现：各个经济体的经济周期波动存在较为密切的联系,经济周期波动国际传递是相当普遍的经济现象;在经济周期波动国际联动网络中,欧洲的重要性显著高于其他大洲;处于经济周期波动国际联动网络的核心区域的经济体以欧洲和南美洲居多,亚洲、非洲和北美洲的国家较多处于经济周期波动国际联动网络的边缘区域;经济周期国际联动网络主要包括以欧盟重要成员国为主体的群组、以中小规模经济体为主体的群组、大规模经济体与中小规模经济体混合构成的群组等三类凝聚子群。在经济周期波动存在广泛、复杂联系的环境中,政府经贸政策和发展战略的制定需要综合考虑面临的外部国际条件以及经贸政策和发展战略的对外影响。     

世界贸易急剧下滑,中国外贸逆势而上

2001年世界贸易增幅明显回落,主要原因是美欧日等主要经济体经济同时出现减速,引发进口需求收缩,直接造成对外部市场依赖程度较大的东亚等国家和地区的出口大幅减少,经济也下滑甚至停滞;而这些国家和地区进口需求的收缩,反过来又影响到美欧日的经济增长,形成了恶性循环。     

2012 年经济景气形势分析

在短期周期性因素和长期趋势性因素的共同影响下,本轮经济周期出现超预期收缩。但月度景气指数已经在6月左右触底企稳,始于2009年2月的此轮经济周期已经结束,经济景气将在“偏冷”区间内稳中趋升。季度GDP增速的下降局面也有望在2012年三季度停止。预测2012年GDP增长7．7％,物价的下降阶段可能持续到2012年底,预计全年CPI上涨率为2．6％左右,达到预期的调控目标。     

中国经济有望年中触底、走向复苏

2009年4月7日，世界银行发布的《东亚经济半年报》指出，中国经济有望于2009年中期触底，然后走向复苏，这将有助于支持东亚与太平洋地区其他国家的经济增长，但整个区域实现可持续的复苏最终取决于发达经济体的事态发展。     

中国股市价格运动的周期现象分析

中国股市的运行周期有其独特的内在规律。中国股市的周期规律是在特殊的市场形态、不成熟的投资主体以及偏重投机的投资理念等要素共同作用下形成的，是经济周期、政策周期、心理周期、市场周期等因素共同作用下的产物。本文试从几个方面，结合数据，以期能够初步的说明经济周期，政策周期等因素是如何从各方面影响中国股市，而使中国股市价格产生周期性变化的。     

投资效应对经济增长率的影响探讨

从投资的角度 ,运用因素分析法 ,着重分析我国1991-2001年的经济增长中各投资要素 ,包括投资额、各部门投资比例和各部门投资效率的影响状况 ,说明加大投资力度、调整投资结构、提高投资效率对加快我国经济增长 ,提高我国经济增长质量具有现实的意义。     

两岸经济合作机制——台湾参与东亚区域经济合作的有效路径

东亚区域经济合作是东亚国家与地区为应对经济全球化浪潮,在区域经济一体化方面的有益尝试。尽管地处东亚,但长期以来由于政治因素的干扰,台湾地区经济有被边缘化的危险。只有通过与祖国大陆建立更紧密的经济合作,台湾才能准确定位自身、参与到东亚区域经济合作进程中来。泛蓝重新执政使两岸关系发生了积极变化。从建立两岸经济合作机制入手,应是台湾实质性参与东亚区域经济合作,在"国际空间"问题上获取绝对收益的务实解决之道。     

中国与东盟国家经济周期同步性的实证分析

运用共同趋势与共同周期(common trend and common cycles)理论,研究中国与东盟国家之间的经济周期在波动中是否存在同步性.以1994～2005年间中国与东盟的GDP季度时间序列为基础,建立了多变量向量误差修正模型.实证分析发现:中国与东盟国家GDP季度时间序列之间在短期内有共同周期,在长期里存在共同发展趋势;中国与东盟国家经济周期在考察样本期间具有同步性,满足金融合作最重要的前提条件;中国与东盟国家应当进一步强化彼此间的经贸交流和经济金融合作,真正发挥区域经济之间的相互带动作用,从而实现区域经济的共同繁荣.     

基于K-L信息量法的经济指标时差分析

文中提出了经济周期波动监测预警指标的选取标准,介绍了K-L信息量法的基本内容,并以2001年1月至2007年6月宏观经济月度数据为基础,应用K-L信息量法进行经济指标时差分析,确定了经济周期波动监测预警的先行指标、同步指标与滞后指标.     

2019年世界经济：同步放缓，复苏乏力

主要经济体复苏动力减弱,贸易保护主义仍是主要威胁(一)世界经济增长持续放缓2019年,世界经济陷入同步放缓境地,主要经济体复苏动力减弱,贸易保护主义依然是威胁世界经济稳定的最重要因素。国际货币基金组织(IMF)、世界银行、经济合作与发展组织(OECD)等机构多次下调2019年世界经济增长预期。     

Markedness and its Interpretation in Language Use

Language markedness is a common phenomenon in languages, and is reflected from hearing, vision and sense, i.e. the variation in the three aspects such as phonology, morphology and semantics. This paper focuses on the interpretation of markedness in language use following the three perspectives, i.e. pragmatic interpretation, psychological interpretation and cognitive interpretation, with an aim to define the function of markedness.     

Features of Women's language

Language is a means of verbal communication. People use language to communicate with each other. In the society, no two speakers are exactly alike in the way of speaking. Some differences are due to age, gender, statue and personality. Above all, gender is one of the obvious reasons. The writer of this paper tries to describe the features of women＇s language from these perspectives： pronunciation, intonation, diction, subjects, grammar and discourse. From the discussion of the features of women＇s language, more attention should be paid to language use in social context. What＇s more, the linguistic phenomena in a speaking community can be understood more thoroughly.     

An Analysis of Catherine＇s Character——Wuthering Heights

Wuthering Heights, Emily Bronte＇s only novel, was published in December of 1847 under the pseudonym Ellis Bell. The book did not gain immediate success, but it is now thought one of the finest novels in the English language. Catherine is the key character of this masterpiece, because everybody and everything center on her though she had a short life. We can understand this masterpiece better if we know Catherine well.     

Lower Paleozoic oil relationships within Williston Basin, Canada

The Williston Basin is a significant petroleum province, containing oil production zones that include the Middle Cambrian to Lower Ordovician, Upper Ordovician, Middle Devonian, Upper Devonian and Mississippian and within the Jurassic and Cretaceous. The oils of the Williston Basin exhibit a wide range of geochemical characteristics defined as "oil families", although the geochemical signature of the Cambrian Deadwood Formation and Lower Ordovician Winnipeg reservoired oils does not match any "oil family". Despite their close stratigraphic proximity, it is evident that the oils of the Lower Palaeozoic within the Williston Basin are distinct. This suggests the presence of a new "oil family" within the Williston Basin. Diagnostic geochemical signatures occur in the gasoline range chromatograms, within saturate fraction gas chromatograms and biomarker fingerprints. However, some of the established criteria and cross-plots that are currently used to segregate oils into distinct genetic families within the basin do not always meet with success, particularly when applied to the Lower Palaeozoic oils of the Deadwood and Winnipeg Formation.     

低渗透非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度研究

理论推导与室内实验相结合,建立了低渗透非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度确定方法。首先借助油藏流场与电场相似的原理,推导了非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度计算公式。其次基于稳定流实验方法,建立了非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度测试方法。结果表明:低渗透非均质砂岩油藏的启动压力梯度确定遵循两个等效原则。平面非均质油藏的启动压力梯度等于各级渗透率段的启动压力梯度关于长度的加权平均;纵向非均质油藏的启动压力梯度等于各渗透率层的启动压力梯度关于渗透率与渗流面积乘积的加权平均。研究成果可用于有效指导低渗透非均质砂岩油藏的合理井距确定,促进该类油藏的高效开发。     

On Tragic Consciousness In The Works By Ernest Hemingway

As an American modern novelist who were famous in the literary world, Hemingway was not a person who always followed the trend but a sharp observer. At the same time, he was a tragedy maestro, he paid great attention on existence, fate and end-result. The dramatis personae's tragedy of his works was an extreme limit by all means tragedy on the meaning of fearless challenge that failed. The beauty of tragedy was not produced on the destruction of life, but now this kind of value was in the impact activity. They performed for the reader about the tragedy on challenging for the limit and the death.     

Achieving Unusual States of Matter Under High Pressure

正The periodicity of the elements and the non-reactivity of the inner-shell electrons are two related principles of chemistry,rooted in the atomic shell structure.Within compounds,Group I elements,for example,invariably assume the+1 oxidation state,and their chemical properties differ completely from those of the p-block elements.These general rules govern our understanding of chemical structures and reactions.Using first principles calcula-     

Exchange-Correlation and Electronic Excitation Energies from Pairing Matrix Fluctuations

We have developed an adiabatic connection to formulate the ground-state exchange-correlation energy in terms of pairing matrix linear fluctuations.This formulation of the exchange-correlation energy opens a new channel for density functional approximations based on the many-body perturbation theory.We illustrate the potential of such approaches with an approximation based on the particle-particle Random Phase Approximation(pp-RPA).This re-     

Density Functional Theory for the Response of Periodic Systems to Electric Fields Based on the Vector Potential Approach

正The electronic and nuclear(structural/vibrational)response of 1D-3D nanoscale systems to electric fields gives rise to a host of optical,mechanical,spectral,etc.properties that are of high theoretical and applied interest.Due to the computational difficulty of treating such large systems it is convenient to model them as infinite and periodic(at least,in first approximation).The fundamental theoretical/computational problem in doing so is that     

Call for Papers

<正>"The Journal of Shanghai Normal University:Mathematics"is published by Shanghai Normal University as regular issues of The Journal of Shanghai Normal University each year from 2014 in English.The editors-in-chief of the issues are professors Yuhao Cong and Maoan Han.The Journal of Shanghai Normal University was started in 1958 with