Arctic hydrology during global warming at the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum

The Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum represents a period of rapid, extreme global warming 55 million years ago, superimposed on an already warm world. This warming is associated with a severe shoaling of the ocean calcite compensation depth and a >2.5 per mil negative carbon isotope excursion in marine and soil carbonates. Together these observations indicate a massive release of 13C-depleted carbon and greenhouse-gas-induced warming. Recently, sediments were recovered from the central Arctic Ocean, providing the first opportunity to evaluate the environmental response at the North Pole at this time. Here we present stable hydrogen and carbon isotope measurements of terrestrial-plant- and aquatic-derived n-alkanes that record changes in hydrology, including surface water salinity and precipitation, and the global carbon cycle. Hydrogen isotope records are interpreted as documenting decreased rainout during moisture transport from lower latitudes and increased moisture delivery to the Arctic at the onset of the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum, consistent with predictions of poleward storm track migrations during global warming. The terrestrial-plant carbon isotope excursion (about -4.5 to -6 per mil) is substantially larger than those of marine carbonates. Previously, this offset was explained by the physiological response of plants to increases in surface humidity. But this mechanism is not an effective explanation in this wet Arctic setting, leading us to hypothesize that the true magnitude of the excursion--and associated carbon input--was greater than originally surmised. Greater carbon release and strong hydrological cycle feedbacks may help explain the maintenance of this unprecedented warmth.     

Eocene global warming events driven by ventilation of oceanic dissolved organic carbon

'Hyperthermals' are intervals of rapid, pronounced global warming known from six episodes within the Palaeocene and Eocene epochs (～65-34 million years (Myr) ago). The most extreme hyperthermal was the ～170 thousand year (kyr) interval of 5-7 °C global warming during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, 56?Myr ago). The PETM is widely attributed to massive release of greenhouse gases from buried sedimentary carbon reservoirs, and other, comparatively modest, hyperthermals have also been linked to the release of sedimentary carbon. Here we show, using new 2.4-Myr-long Eocene deep ocean records, that the comparatively modest hyperthermals are much more numerous than previously documented, paced by the eccentricity of Earth's orbit and have shorter durations (～40?kyr) and more rapid recovery phases than the PETM. These findings point to the operation of fundamentally different forcing and feedback mechanisms than for the PETM, involving redistribution of carbon among Earth's readily exchangeable surface reservoirs rather than carbon exhumation from, and subsequent burial back into, the sedimentary reservoir. Specifically, we interpret our records to indicate repeated, large-scale releases of dissolved organic carbon (at least 1,600 gigatonnes) from the ocean by ventilation (strengthened oxidation) of the ocean interior. The rapid recovery of the carbon cycle following each Eocene hyperthermal strongly suggests that carbon was re-sequestered by the ocean, rather than the much slower process of silicate rock weathering proposed for the PETM. Our findings suggest that these pronounced climate warming events were driven not by repeated releases of carbon from buried sedimentary sources, but, rather, by patterns of surficial carbon redistribution familiar from younger intervals of Earth history.     

Termination of global warmth at the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary through productivity feedback

The onset of the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum (about 55 Myr ago) was marked by global surface temperatures warming by 5-7 degrees C over approximately 30,000 yr (ref. 1), probably because of enhanced mantle outgassing and the pulsed release of approximately 1,500 gigatonnes of methane carbon from decomposing gas-hydrate reservoirs. The aftermath of this rapid, intense and global warming event may be the best example in the geological record of the response of the Earth to high atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and high temperatures. This response has been suggested to include an intensified flux of organic carbon from the ocean surface to the deep ocean and its subsequent burial through biogeochemical feedback mechanisms. Here we present firm evidence for this view from two ocean drilling cores, which record the largest accumulation rates of biogenic barium--indicative of export palaeoproductivity--at times of maximum global temperatures and peak excursion values of delta13C. The unusually rapid return of delta13C to values similar to those before the methane release and the apparent coupling of the accumulation rates of biogenic barium to temperature, suggests that the enhanced deposition of organic matter to the deep sea may have efficiently cooled this greenhouse climate by the rapid removal of excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.     

Possible methane-induced polar warming in the early Eocene

Reconstructions of early Eocene climate depict a world in which the polar environments support mammals and reptiles, deciduous forests, warm oceans and rare frost conditions. At the same time, tropical sea surface temperatures are interpreted to have been the same as or slightly cooler than present values. The question of how to warm polar regions of Earth without noticeably warming the tropics remains unresolved; increased amounts of greenhouse gases would be expected to warm all latitudes equally. Oceanic heat transport has been postulated as a mechanism for heating high latitudes, but it is difficult to explain the dynamics that would achieve this. Here we consider estimates of Eocene wetland areas and suggest that the flux of methane, an important greenhouse gas, may have been substantially greater during the Eocene than at present. Elevated methane concentrations would have enhanced early Eocene global warming, and also might specifically have prevented severe winter cooling of polar regions because of the potential of atmospheric methane to promote the formation of optically thick, polar stratospheric ice clouds.     

Environmental precursors to rapid light carbon injection at the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary

The start of the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum--a period of exceptional global warming about 55 million years ago--is marked by a prominent negative carbon isotope excursion that reflects a massive input of 13C-depleted ('light') carbon to the ocean-atmosphere system. It is often assumed that this carbon injection initiated the rapid increase in global surface temperatures and environmental change that characterize the climate perturbation, but the exact sequence of events remains uncertain. Here we present chemical and biotic records of environmental change across the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary from two sediment sections in New Jersey that have high sediment accumulation rates. We show that the onsets of environmental change (as recorded by the abundant occurrence ('acme') of the dinoflagellate cyst Apectodinium) and of surface-ocean warming (as evidenced by the palaeothermometer TEX86) preceded the light carbon injection by several thousand years. The onset of the Apectodinium acme also precedes the carbon isotope excursion in sections from the southwest Pacific Ocean and the North Sea, indicating that the early onset of environmental change was not confined to the New Jersey shelf. The lag of approximately 3,000 years between the onset of warming in New Jersey shelf waters and the carbon isotope excursion is consistent with the hypothesis that bottom water warming caused the injection of 13C-depleted carbon by triggering the dissociation of submarine methane hydrates, but the cause of the early warming remains uncertain.     

Release of methane from a volcanic basin as a mechanism for initial Eocene global warming

A 200,000-yr interval of extreme global warming marked the start of the Eocene epoch about 55 million years ago. Negative carbon- and oxygen-isotope excursions in marine and terrestrial sediments show that this event was linked to a massive and rapid (approximately 10,000 yr) input of isotopically depleted carbon. It has been suggested previously that extensive melting of gas hydrates buried in marine sediments may represent the carbon source and has caused the global climate change. Large-scale hydrate melting, however, requires a hitherto unknown triggering mechanism. Here we present evidence for the presence of thousands of hydrothermal vent complexes identified on seismic reflection profiles from the V?ring and M?re basins in the Norwegian Sea. We propose that intrusion of voluminous mantle-derived melts in carbon-rich sedimentary strata in the northeast Atlantic may have caused an explosive release of methane--transported to the ocean or atmosphere through the vent complexes--close to the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary. Similar volcanic and metamorphic processes may explain climate events associated with other large igneous provinces such as the Siberian Traps (approximately 250 million years ago) and the Karoo Igneous Province (approximately 183 million years ago).     

Astronomical pacing of methane release in the Early Jurassic period

A pronounced negative carbon-isotope (delta13C) excursion of approximately 5-7 per thousand (refs 1-7) indicates the occurrence of a significant perturbation to the global carbon cycle during the Early Jurassic period (early Toarcian age, approximately 183 million years ago). The rapid release of 12C-enriched biogenic methane as a result of continental-shelf methane hydrate dissociation has been put forward as a possible explanation for this observation. Here we report high-resolution organic carbon-isotope data from well-preserved mudrocks in Yorkshire, UK, which demonstrate that the carbon-isotope excursion occurred in three abrupt stages, each showing a shift of -2 per thousand to -3 per thousand. Spectral analysis of these carbon-isotope measurements and of high-resolution carbonate abundance data reveals a regular cyclicity. We interpret these results as providing strong evidence that methane release proceeded in three rapid pulses and that these pulses were controlled by astronomically forced changes in climate, superimposed upon longer-term global warming. We also find that the first two pulses of methane release each coincided with the extinction of a large proportion of marine species.     

Response of monsoon variability in Himalayas to global warming

Reconstructed annual net accumulation from the Dasuopu ice core recovered in Himalayas, with a good correlation to Indian monsoon, reflects a major precipitation trend in central Himalayas. The Dasuopu accumulation (DSP An) also shows a strong correlation to the Northern Hemispheric temperature. Generally, as the Northern Hemispheric temperature increases by 0.1 K, the accumulation decreases by about 90 mm and vise versa. Under the condition of global warming, especially since 1920, the Northern Hemispheric mean temperature has increased by about 0.5 K, whereas accumulation in Dasuopu ice core has decreased by about 450 mm. According to the relationship between accumulation and temperature, a scenario prediction of monsoon rainfall in central Himalayas is made.     

湖北地区气温变化对全球变暖的响应

选用湖北省77个代表站1960-2003年逐日气温观测资料,分析了湖北省气温的年、季节变化规律及其地域分布特征．结果表明：湖北省近44年气温呈上升趋势,至2003年气温上升了0．5℃,增温速率约为0．12℃／10a,和近50年来的全球平均增温速率相当．20世纪90年代升温最剧烈．春季、秋季和冬季气温均呈上升趋势,冬季增温最明显,而夏季气温却呈下降趋势．夏季平均日最高气温也呈下降趋势,冬季平均日最低气温上升趋势显著．气温变化不同的地区差异较大,西部地区变化趋势不明显,有微弱的下降趋势,而中东部地区则有较明显的升温趋势．     

Palaeo-altimetry of the late Eocene to Miocene Lunpola basin, central Tibet

The elevation history of the Tibetan plateau provides direct insight into the tectonic processes associated with continent-continent collisions. Here we present oxygen-isotope-based estimates of the palaeo-altimetry of late Eocene and younger deposits of the Lunpola basin in the centre of the plateau, which indicate that the surface of Tibet has been at an elevation of more than 4 kilometres for at least the past 35 million years. We conclude that crustal, but not mantle, thickening models, combined with plate-kinematic solutions of India-Asia convergence, are compatible with palaeo-elevation estimates across the Tibetan plateau.     

全球变暖背景下极端降水变化率与气温的响应关系

以中国整体为研究区,基于1960—2013年520个气象站逐日降水和气温数据,选取极端降水变化率(α)和饱和水汽压变化率(β)2个指标,定量分析了极端降水与全球变暖之间的内在联系.结果表明:全球变暖背景下我国整体上极端降水呈现增加的趋势,α和β分别为6.4%·℃-1和9.3%·℃-1,且α更接近理论值(约7%·℃-1),β与平均气温存在指数定量化关系.在此基础上,根据平均气温的不同将我国划分为9个对照组,进一步分析其空间差异,结果表明:α和β在空间上存在显著的正相关关系(r=0.63),具体表现为平均气温较高的地区,α和β值也较大.证明了饱和水汽压随温度的变化率可以从大尺度上解释极端降水增加的空间变化特征.     

减缓全球气候变暖的新途径

因人类对化石燃料的大量燃烧,致使大气中产生了过量的温室气体CO2,导致全球气候变暖,海平面上升.为了避免温室效应可能给人类带来的灾害,应控制CO2向大气中的过量排放.减少和控制CO2在大气中过量聚集的一种新途径是将工业产生的CO2封存于地质建造中.最适宜CO2封存的地质建造是油气田废弃的或正在生产的储油气层、煤田中的不可采煤层和深层多孔隙含盐建造.人类在石油和天然气生产方面的经验是CO2封存技术和机理研究的有益基础.     

人类影响引起全球变暖的证据

 按照归因分析的研究方法和工具,综述了近些年有关人类影响引起全球变暖证据的科学研究成果。利用全球气候模式考虑人类影响,采用指纹法检测和归因证实,发现人类影响几乎肯定是引起近百年特别是近50年全球变暖的主因。地球系统5个圈层（大气、海洋、陆地、冰雪、生物）与全球变暖有关的证据,如热浪增加、寒潮减弱、低层大气变暖、陆地和海洋变暖、受海水热膨胀和冰融化引起全球海平面上升、冰雪和永冻土融化加速、海洋酸度增加、植物生长季延长等,都与人类影响有密切联系。     

Obliquity pacing of the late Pleistocene glacial terminations

The 100,000-year timescale in the glacial/interglacial cycles of the late Pleistocene epoch (the past approximately 700,000 years) is commonly attributed to control by variations in the Earth's orbit. This hypothesis has inspired models that depend on the Earth's obliquity (approximately 40,000 yr; approximately 40 kyr), orbital eccentricity (approximately 100 kyr) and precessional (approximately 20 kyr) fluctuations, with the emphasis usually on eccentricity and precessional forcing. According to a contrasting hypothesis, the glacial cycles arise primarily because of random internal climate variability. Taking these two perspectives together, there are currently more than thirty different models of the seven late-Pleistocene glacial cycles. Here we present a statistical test of the orbital forcing hypothesis, focusing on the rapid deglaciation events known as terminations. According to our analysis, the null hypothesis that glacial terminations are independent of obliquity can be rejected at the 5% significance level, whereas the corresponding null hypotheses for eccentricity and precession cannot be rejected. The simplest inference consistent with the test results is that the ice sheets terminated every second or third obliquity cycle at times of high obliquity, similar to the original proposal by Milankovitch. We also present simple stochastic and deterministic models that describe the timing of the late-Pleistocene glacial terminations purely in terms of obliquity forcing.     

Past extreme warming events linked to massive carbon release from thawing permafrost

Between about 55.5 and 52 million years ago, Earth experienced a series of sudden and extreme global warming events (hyperthermals) superimposed on a long-term warming trend. The first and largest of these events, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), is characterized by a massive input of carbon, ocean acidification and an increase in global temperature of about 5 °C within a few thousand years. Although various explanations for the PETM have been proposed, a satisfactory model that accounts for the source, magnitude and timing of carbon release at the PETM and successive hyperthermals remains elusive. Here we use a new astronomically calibrated cyclostratigraphic record from central Italy to show that the Early Eocene hyperthermals occurred during orbits with a combination of high eccentricity and high obliquity. Corresponding climate-ecosystem-soil simulations accounting for rising concentrations of background greenhouse gases and orbital forcing show that the magnitude and timing of the PETM and subsequent hyperthermals can be explained by the orbitally triggered decomposition of soil organic carbon in circum-Arctic and Antarctic terrestrial permafrost. This massive carbon reservoir had the potential to repeatedly release thousands of petagrams (10(15) grams) of carbon to the atmosphere-ocean system, once a long-term warming threshold had been reached just before the PETM. Replenishment of permafrost soil carbon stocks following peak warming probably contributed to the rapid recovery from each event, while providing a sensitive carbon reservoir for the next hyperthermal. As background temperatures continued to rise following the PETM, the areal extent of permafrost steadily declined, resulting in an incrementally smaller available carbon pool and smaller hyperthermals at each successive orbital forcing maximum. A mechanism linking Earth's orbital properties with release of soil carbon from permafrost provides a unifying model accounting for the salient features of the hyperthermals.     

Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model

The continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide due to anthropogenic emissions is predicted to lead to significant changes in climate. About half of the current emissions are being absorbed by the ocean and by land ecosystems, but this absorption is sensitive to climate as well as to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, creating a feedback loop. General circulation models have generally excluded the feedback between climate and the biosphere, using static vegetation distributions and CO2 concentrations from simple carbon-cycle models that do not include climate change. Here we present results from a fully coupled, three-dimensional carbon-climate model, indicating that carbon-cycle feedbacks could significantly accelerate climate change over the twenty-first century. We find that under a 'business as usual' scenario, the terrestrial biosphere acts as an overall carbon sink until about 2050, but turns into a source thereafter. By 2100, the ocean uptake rate of 5 Gt C yr(-1) is balanced by the terrestrial carbon source, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are 250 p.p.m.v. higher in our fully coupled simulation than in uncoupled carbon models, resulting in a global-mean warming of 5.5 K, as compared to 4 K without the carbon-cycle feedback.     

Combined obliquity and precession pacing of late Pleistocene deglaciations

Milankovitch proposed that Earth resides in an interglacial state when its spin axis both tilts to a high obliquity and precesses to align the Northern Hemisphere summer with Earth's nearest approach to the Sun. This general concept has been elaborated into hypotheses that precession, obliquity or combinations of both could pace deglaciations during the late Pleistocene. Earlier tests have shown that obliquity paces the late Pleistocene glacial cycles but have been inconclusive with regard to precession, whose shorter period of about 20,000 years makes phasing more sensitive to timing errors. No quantitative test has provided firm evidence for a dual effect. Here I show that both obliquity and precession pace late Pleistocene glacial cycles. Deficiencies in time control that have long stymied efforts to establish orbital effects on deglaciation are overcome using a new statistical test that focuses on maxima in orbital forcing. The results are fully consistent with Milankovitch's proposal but also admit the possibility that long Southern Hemisphere summers contribute to deglaciation.