Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic

Development of strategies for mitigating the severity of a new influenza pandemic is now a top global public health priority. Influenza prevention and containment strategies can be considered under the broad categories of antiviral, vaccine and non-pharmaceutical (case isolation, household quarantine, school or workplace closure, restrictions on travel) measures. Mathematical models are powerful tools for exploring this complex landscape of intervention strategies and quantifying the potential costs and benefits of different options. Here we use a large-scale epidemic simulation to examine intervention options should initial containment of a novel influenza outbreak fail, using Great Britain and the United States as examples. We find that border restrictions and/or internal travel restrictions are unlikely to delay spread by more than 2-3 weeks unless more than 99% effective. School closure during the peak of a pandemic can reduce peak attack rates by up to 40%, but has little impact on overall attack rates, whereas case isolation or household quarantine could have a significant impact, if feasible. Treatment of clinical cases can reduce transmission, but only if antivirals are given within a day of symptoms starting. Given enough drugs for 50% of the population, household-based prophylaxis coupled with reactive school closure could reduce clinical attack rates by 40-50%. More widespread prophylaxis would be even more logistically challenging but might reduce attack rates by over 75%. Vaccine stockpiled in advance of a pandemic could significantly reduce attack rates even if of low efficacy. Estimates of policy effectiveness will change if the characteristics of a future pandemic strain differ substantially from those seen in past pandemics.     

Genesis of a highly pathogenic and potentially pandemic H5N1 influenza virus in eastern Asia

A highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, H5N1, caused disease outbreaks in poultry in China and seven other east Asian countries between late 2003 and early 2004; the same virus was fatal to humans in Thailand and Vietnam. Here we demonstrate a series of genetic reassortment events traceable to the precursor of the H5N1 viruses that caused the initial human outbreak in Hong Kong in 1997 (refs 2-4) and subsequent avian outbreaks in 2001 and 2002 (refs 5, 6). These events gave rise to a dominant H5N1 genotype (Z) in chickens and ducks that was responsible for the regional outbreak in 2003-04. Our findings indicate that domestic ducks in southern China had a central role in the generation and maintenance of this virus, and that wild birds may have contributed to the increasingly wide spread of the virus in Asia. Our results suggest that H5N1 viruses with pandemic potential have become endemic in the region and are not easily eradicable. These developments pose a threat to public and veterinary health in the region and potentially the world, and suggest that long-term control measures are required.     

东南亚旅游业务纵深发展论

就东南亚旅游业务发展的现状、存在的问题、发展的趋势等进行了研究和探讨,并对东南亚旅游未来的发展提出了建议。     

壮族在东南亚最亲密的兄弟——越南的岱、侬、拉基、布标、山斋族

我国壮族与东南亚国家越南、老挝、泰国、缅甸、印度等5国的20个民族有亲缘关系,其中与越南的岱族、侬族、拉基族、布标族、山斋族关系尤为密切,从历史记载、语言、家谱、传说以及现在的通婚状况都可说明他们的兄弟情义。由于中国和越南民族识别的标准和方法不同,族称不同,有些人不了解他们的亲缘关系。     

试析东南亚地区安全合作的几个主要问题

冷战以后东南亚地区安全环境发生了很大变化,政治领域,经济领域安全问题错综交织,加之近年来非传统安全的兴起,都加剧了东南亚地区的安全困境。在新时代的国际安全环境下,各种以地区性为主的国际合作安全机制应运而生。本文分析东南亚地区安全合作的驱动力,东南亚地区安全合作的可能性与具体建议以及东南亚地区安全合作对亚太地区安全的影响。     

伊斯兰教对南亚及东南亚五国教育的影响

伊斯兰教大约从公元8世纪开始进入南亚次大陆，约从公元13世纪末开始传入南洋群岛。伊斯兰教对印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉、鳊尼西亚和马来西亚等五国近、现代教育的影响非常明显。伊斯兰教组织在这五国强调宗教教育的同时，客观上也促进了这些国家国民教育的发展。     

简述冷战后东南亚的海盗活动及对策

受冷战结束及东南亚金融危机的影响,东南亚海盗活动重新猖獗并呈现出新特点,给亚太地区的和平和经济发展带来严重危害。为遏制海盗活动,东南亚地区国家及利益相关国家开展合作,采取一系列措施,取得一定成效。     

论东南亚多边主义的发展、特点及其前景

在以往双边主义为主要行为方式的国际舞台,多边主义渐渐展露头角,并发展和壮大,在地区和全球事务中发挥日益重要的作用,多边主义是未来的发展趋势。东南亚国家经济发展迅速,在国际舞台上发挥着日益重要的作用,东南亚的多边主义发展尽管还处于初级阶段,但前景是光明的。因此,分析东南亚多边主义的发展及其特点,并对其发展前景做出思考,具有重要意义。     

东南亚华人的土地神与圣迹崇拜

源自古代中国文化的土地神观念 ,虽经历了各种演变 ,但至今仍是华人社会传统宗教系统的主要成分。马来西亚华人社会的大伯公、拿督公等崇拜 ,就是土地神观念的文化延续与区域性变革 ,分析这种延续和变革 ,可以把握当地华人和非华人本土传统间之宗教观念上的互动关系。而要明白现今东南亚华人的土地与圣迹的神祗之信仰 ,其分析须置于华人社会土地神观念的发展脉络之中。忽略了这个历史脉络的分析 ,可能会引致误导性的解释     

“亚洲价值观”与东南亚金融风暴

本文通过对造成东南亚金融危机原因的考察,论证了东南亚金融危机与“亚洲价值观”的不相关性,指出,以儒家价值观念为核心“亚洲价值观”,不仅在五、六十年代以来东亚经济的快速发展中发挥了重要作用,同时也是东亚国家和地区克服金融危机,重新振兴东亚经济的一个不可忽视的积极文化因素。     

东南亚近代华人采锡业

华人开采锡矿是东南亚开发史的重要组成部分,它集矿产开发、技术传播、文化交流、经济发展、社会进步于一体,是研究近代中国与东南亚交流的重要历史资料。通过对史料的挖掘与整理,从技术的传播与应用、华人的贡献与作用两个方面,系统地研究华人开发东南亚锡矿发生的历史背景、具体过程,从技术史的视角探讨华人开发东南亚锡矿及其锡矿业发展兴衰的史实。     

东南亚汉语教师志愿者现状分析及对策

汉语教师志愿者项目是中国政府为适应世界汉语教学发展的新形势、加强汉语国际推广力度、帮助各国解决汉语师资紧缺问题而专门设立的服务项目,2004年开始正式运行。志愿者的工作极大地促进了任教国的汉语教学,缓解了汉语师资短缺的问题,增进了中国与世界各国的教育文化交流和友谊。但是对项目本身在运作和管理方面的利弊还缺乏科学理性的分析,对志愿者这一特殊群体的研究和探索也远远落后于飞速发展的形势,因此加快研究步伐,进行科学理性的分析和研究,提出有针对性的符合实情的对策和方法已成为当务之急。     

东南亚留学生成语误用成因及教学对策

成语是汉语词汇系统中的精华,也是现成的语言建筑材料。它不仅能发挥词语的表达作用,还具有丰富的内涵与特殊的表达效果。文章对来自柬埔寨、老挝、印度尼西亚等东南亚国家的留学生在使用成语过程中出现的误用情况加以分析,对成语误用原因进行总结,并提出建设性的解决策略,旨在推动东南亚留学生成语教学质量的提升。     

大理学院面向东南亚汉语国际人才培养模式的创新与实践

社会的发展带来人才需求的变化,人才培养模式一直是高校改革的重要领域。作为一所地方性院校,大理学院抓住桥头堡建设机遇,结合自身的办学特点和优势,创建了＂面向东南亚汉语国际人才培养＂的模式。     

Protochordate amphioxus is an emerging model organism for comparative immunology

Protochordate amphioxus is an extant invertebrate regarded quite recently as a basal chordate. It has a vertebrate-like body plan including a circulation system with an organization similar to that of vertebrates. However, amphioxus is less complex than vertebrates for having a genome uncomplicated by extensive genomic duplication, and lacking lymphoid organs and free circulating blood cells. Recent studies on immunity have demonstrated the presence in amphioxus of both the constituent elements of key molecules involved in adaptive immunity such as proto-major histocompatibility complex (proto-MHC), V region-containing chitin-binding protein (VCBP) and V and C domain-bearing protein (VCP), and the complement system operating via the alternative and lectin pathways resembling those seen in vertebrates. In addition, the acute phase response profile in amphioxus has been shown to be similar to that observed in vertebrates. These findings together with the relative structural and genomic simplicity make amphioxus an ideal organism for gaining insights into the origin and evolution of the vertebrate immune system, especially adaptive immunity, and the composition and mechanisms of the vertebrate innate immunity.     

认清形势明确任务群策群力走"辐射南亚、东南亚"的特色发展道路

通过分析大理学院在全国、全省高等教育发展格局中的位置，以及所占的高等教育市场份额，从在非中心城市办高校，如何才能健康快速发展的实际情况出发，提出学校国际合作与交流工作的战略定位及重点。通过回顾学校“十五”期间国际合作与交流工作的实践，提出“十一五”期间我校国际合作与交流工作的发展目标和主要任务。     

The paleoclimate environment and recent sea level change on the seashores of Thailand Gulf in Southeast Asia

This paper analyzed and researched on several significant natural geological sections from the views of stratum-sequence stratigraphy, climate stratigraphy, event stratigraphy and regional stratigraphy by the investigation of Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. In combination with the coupling relationship between the life-temperature of regional life zone and the evolution of geological environment, this paper exactly made out the geological sediment records of paleoclimate times in different time scales of 3 kaBP, 1 kaBP and 0.5 kaBP since the past glacier age of Quaternary period, and it is consecutive and authentic for the material medium and time joint. These studies definitely reflected that the sea level of Thailand Gulf area is in tendency of continually dropping in recent years. They also provided important and new information for the global change analysis.     

“一带一路”倡议背景下东南亚贫困及减贫开发模式研究

贫困是东南亚地区实现2030年可持续发展目标和区域共同繁荣面临的重要挑战。东南亚地区贫困人口聚集,减贫成效与经济发展水平、农业生产率、交通基础设施和科技教育等方面的发展和投入水平密切相关。日本、美国等国政府以及世界银行、亚洲开发银行等多边政府和非政府机构在东南亚实施的项目对于东南亚国家的减贫有一定的推动作用。东南亚目前主要存在基础减贫、产业减贫和生态减贫3种减贫开发模式,不同模式之间并无非此即彼的替代关系,需要因地制宜、具体规划。中国政府提出的"一带一路"倡议和后续一系列相关政策在合作内容上基本覆盖3种减贫模式。随着"一带一路"倡议下双边和多边合作的不断推进,中国与东南亚国家之间的交往和合作水平将不断提高,东南亚地区的基础设施、能源、农业等产业发展将在人才、资金、技术、互联互通渠道、合作平台建设等支撑条件的持续发展中得到进一步加强,进而推动东南亚贫困问题的解决和可持续发展目标的实现。     

Public health vaccination policies for containing an anthrax outbreak

Concern about biological weapons has raised questions about the most effective public health policies to contain an anthrax outbreak. We developed a probability model to predict the impact of different anthrax antibiotic and vaccination policies. An anthrax outbreak can be significantly contained by minimizing the delay until initiation of antibiotic prophylaxis. However, even if mass distribution of antibiotics is completed within six days of the initial exposure, then at most about 70% of cases can be prevented. Post-exposure vaccination will not significantly increase that prevention rate if adherence to antibiotic regimens is similar or higher than that attained in the 2001 US outbreak. However, post-exposure vaccination can be useful either in shortening the duration of a prolonged antibiotic regimen, in the event of an antibiotic-resistant strain, or if antibiotic adherence rates are very low. Here we show that a mass pre-exposure vaccination programme for the general population would require very high population coverage rates to significantly increase prevention rates from that achieved with targeted and rapid post-exposure prophylaxis programmes.