登陆中国热带气旋路径的年代际变化

利用1951~2002年热带气旋年鉴资料,将52年分成ID1(1951~1979年)和ID2(1980~2002年)两个年代际时段,研究西北太平洋7~9月登陆中国热带气旋路径的年代际变化.结果表明,登陆中国热带气旋存在明显的月际、年际和年代际变化,从ID1到ID2,热带气旋路径频数在东海和菲律宾海明显下降,而在南海略微有所上升.东海和南海热带气旋路径频数的时间序列进一步揭示了20世纪70年代末期热带气旋路径频数位置的变化.     

Features of tropical cyclone landfalls over East Asia corresponding to three types of Pacific warming decaying phase

This study examines the tropical cyclone （TC） landfall activities over the East Asia in three types of decaying phase of warm sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific： eastern Pacific warming decaying to La Nifia, eastern Pacific warming decaying to a neutral E1 Nifio-Southern Oscilla- tion phase, and a central Pacific warming decaying year. Results show that, for the type of eastern Pacific wanning decaying to La Nifia, more TCs make landfall over Hainan Island and Beibu Gulf, whereas fewer TCs reach eastern China coast. In particular, the number of landfalling TCs remarkably decreases in the decaying phase of eastern Pacific E1 Nifio to a neutral year. During the decaying phase of central Pacific E1 Nifio events, more TCs tend to make landfall over southern China, Indochina Peninsula and the Philippines. The anomalies of atmospheric circu- lation and environmental conditions induced by the SSTAs over the tropical Pacific in the different decaying types are responsible for the evident variation in features of TC landfall.     

台风季中国热带气旋降水的典型模态及显著影响因子

本文利用客观分离的热带气旋降水的台站资料,运用经验正交分解法分析了台风季中国热带气旋降水的前两个主要典型模态及其与同期西北太平洋热带气旋源地路径的关系,以及与海表面温度和500 hPa环流场的关系.结果表明:热带气旋降水第1模态表现为以华南西南为正中心而华东为负中心的偶极子振荡型,此模态出现于赤道中东太平洋海表面温度一次冷异常过程的鼎盛时期,对应的西北太平洋500 hPa环流异常主要表现为低纬中西太平洋海域的东风异常以及中国区域北高南低的环流异常,在这样的环流异常配置下,热带气旋源地显著偏西,西行路径显著偏多,而北折路径较为偏少.热带气旋降水第2模态表现为以华东及海南南端区域为正中心的中国大部地区的一致同步型,此模态出现于赤道中东太平洋海表面温度一次冷异常逐渐减弱并向暖异常过渡的相位变化时期,对应的西北太平洋500 hPa环流异常各月差异较大,7、9月份的环流异常配置使热带气旋路径偏南更易侵袭我国海南等南端区域,而8月的环流异常配置导致热带气旋源地偏北,中国东南近海热带气旋生成频数显著偏多,且其路径更易北折影响华东地区.     

效用理论与船舶绕避热带气旋方案的选择

在简要介绍效用概念和效用理论的基础上,将效用理论及其决策方法引人到船舶绕避热带气旋最佳方案选择这一风险型决策问题中;并对效用和风险的关系进行了介绍和分析,说明了不同决策者对待同样的风险有着不同的态度．通过举例对船舶绕避热带气旋方案的优先关系及效用函数确定过程的分析,提出了使用效用理论解决船舶绕避热带气旋最佳方案选择的基本思路和方法．得到的船舶绕避热带气旋方案可用于对通过效益分析得出的方案进行对比,以便最终得到船舶管理部门和船舶驾驶员均能在心理和理智上接受的最佳绕避热带气旋方案．     

Tropospheric biennial oscillation of the western Pacific subtropical high and its relationships with the tropical SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies

There is the significant period of tropospheric biennial Oscillation(TBO)over East Asian monsoon region at the interannual timescales,which has the important influences on East China climate.Based on a set of reconstructed indices which describes the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)objectively,this paper focuses on the TBO component of WPSH,one of the key members of the East Asian Monsoon system,and its relationships with the tropical SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies.It is found that(1)As an important interannual component of WPSH,the time series of TBO has the obvious transition in the late1970s,and the variability of the WPSH’s TBO component is more significant after the late 1970s.(2)The time-lag correlations between the WPSH’s TBO and the tropical sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in several key ocean regions are more significant and have longer correlation duration than the raw data.The response of the western boundary index to ENSO is earlier than the intensity index,and the time-lag correlations of them are up to maximum when lagging ENSO by 3–5 months and 5–6months,respectively.(3)In the course of the WPSH’s TBO cycle,the occurrence of the El Ni o-like anomaly in the tropical central-eastern Pacific in winter is always coupled with the weak East Asian winter monsoon,with the most significant enhancing phase of the WPSH’TBO.In contrast,the La Ni a-like anomaly in the central-eastern Pacific in winter is coupled with the strong East Asian winter monsoon,with the most weakening phase of the WPSH’s TBO.(4)The distribution of the tropical SST and atmospheric circulations anomalies are asymmetric in the TBO cycle.The WPSH’s TBO is more significant in the period of the developing El Ni o-like anomaly in central-eastern Pacific than in the period of the developing La Ni a-like anomaly.Therefore,during the period of developing El Ni o-like anomaly,more attention should be paid to the interannual component of TBO signal in the short-term climate prediction.     

相互依存与亚太地区的国家间合作

相互依存使亚太地区国家的共同利益不断增长，然而各个国家的个别利益并没有消失。基于此。亚太地区的国家间合作存在着无条件合作、竞争性合作和被动式协调三个层次和自助、政策协调和制度化安排三种类型。而正确地认识与维护国家利益以及完善制度化的安排将促进和巩固亚太地区的国家间合作。     

Decline of surface temperature and salinity in the western tropical Pacific Ocean in the Holocene epoch

In the present-day climate, surface water salinities are low in the western tropical Pacific Ocean and increase towards the eastern part of the basin. The salinity of surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean is thought to be controlled by a combination of atmospheric convection, precipitation, evaporation and ocean dynamics, and on interannual timescales significant variability is associated with the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation cycles. However, little is known about the variability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on timescales of centuries to millennia. Here we combine oxygen isotope and Mg/Ca data from foraminifers retrieved from three sediment cores in the western tropical Pacific Ocean to reconstruct Holocene sea surface temperatures and salinities in the region. We find a decrease in sea surface temperatures of approximately 0.5 degrees C over the past 10,000 yr, whereas sea surface salinities decreased by approximately 1.5 practical salinity units. Our data imply either that the Pacific basin as a whole has become progressively less salty or that the present salinity gradient along the Equator has developed relatively recently.     

教会 铁路 公路与近代云南西医的发展

西方医学在近代云南的传播和发展过程经历了三个大的阶段：教会充当近代西医进入云南的开路先锋,滇越铁路通车后云南迎来了兴办西医院的高潮,抗日战争期间教会医院沿重要交通线加速发展。     

中国三大林区森林破碎化及干扰模式变动分析

为了评价现存的森林经营方法及国家执行的多个林业生态工程的有效性,利用两期直接可比的全球土地覆盖数据(Globcover 2005和2009),采用破碎化分析模型与景观指数相结合的方法,分析了中国三大林区的森林破碎化、干扰模式及森林与其他土地利用类型空间交互特征的变化.结果表明:东北林区破碎化程度明显降低,而南方和西南林区森林破碎化加剧.三大林区的人为干扰程度下降,南方和西南林区的自然干扰明显增强.南方和西南林区森林与农业土地利用具备较高的空间关联度,但与城市类型关联不大.这些可观察到的森林破碎化及干扰模式变化紧密依赖于我国的林地所有权、地形差异、经济发展水平及人口转移方向.     

西部地区图书馆和信息产业与文化产业相关性研究

从信息产业和文化产业概念出发,结合西部地区信息、文化产业的发展现状,分析了图书馆、信息产业、文化产业的相关性,指出了相关性研究的意义。     

上层海洋热力异常对西北太平洋热带气旋气候特征的影响

重点分析了1970-2003年期间西北太平洋的热带气旋活动特征与海洋表面温度、上层海洋的热力异常变化以及对流层低层的大尺度环流特征之间的关系.分析结果发现在西北太平洋海域,热带气旋活动趋势与上层海洋热力异常变化(上层海洋热含量)以及对流层低层的西风异常之间有着显著的相关关系,而与海洋表面温度无显著关系.并在此基础上探讨了这种关系存在的物理机制.     

东学西被与西学东渐--中西文化交流的历史考察

本文以16世纪为界把中西文化交流的历史分为“东学西被”和“西学东渐”两个阶段,探讨了每个阶段文化交流的方式、规模、内容与影响等,揭示了这两个阶段中西文化交流的不同特点。     

川西昌台地区晚三叠世双壳生物群的分布与火山活动的相关性

川西昌台地区晚三叠世的海相火山活动频繁,每次火山活动的间歇期都沉积有一套深色岩系,主要为泥质板岩、粉砂质板岩和钙质板岩.这套沉积岩系产有丰富的双壳类化石,这套岩系底部与火山岩接触的层位,其所含的双壳类化石类别单一,个体较大,数量丰富,呈介壳形式产出,矿化明显.根据薄片鉴定结果、稀土元素分布模式以及微量元素的含量分析,认为川西昌台地区晚三叠世生物群的分布与火山活动密切相关,火山活动为海底热液的存在提供了通道,火山活动末期的热液环境参数包括还原性、高温、高金属离子浓度(金属硫化物)等.     

The terraced thermal contrast among the Tibetan Plateau, the East Asian plain, and the western North Pacific and its impacts on the seasonal transition of East Asian climate

The heating sources over the Tibetan Plateau （TP）, the East Asian plain, and the western North Pacific （WNP） form a terraced thermal contrast in the west-east direction. Over East Asia and the WNP, this zonal thermal contrast contributes as high as 45 % to the seasonal variance based on the EOF analysis and exerts a significant impact on the seasonal transition of the East Asian climate through the enhancement of the year-round southerly to the southeast of the TP in late March and early April. This effect is investigated in this study using a high-resolution regional atmospheric model by doubling the surface sen- sible heat flux, respectively, over the TP, the East Asian plain, and the WNP in three sensitivity experiments. Comparisons among the experiments reveal that doubling the surface sensible heat flux over the WNP has little upstream response over East Asia. The increased zonal thermal contrast between the TP and the East Asian plain due to doubled heat flux over the TP would induce anomalous northerly over the region with year-round southerly to the southeast of the TP and weaken its seasonal enhancement. Doubling the surface sensible heat flux over the East Asian plain decreases the zonal thermal contrast and leads to southerly anomaly over the region with year-round southerly to the southeast of the TP and South China, which is favorable for the enhancement of the year-round southerly and its eastward extension.     

Globalization,Global English, and the Spread of Western Cultures

In this paper,the role of English in the context of globalization is discussed.Firstly,the causes and manifestations of globalization are briefly reviewed.Secondly,the role of English as a medium of intercultural communication is discussed,and the major types of English in the world that have evolved along with globalization are elaborated.Thirdly,the drawbacks of cultural globalization are also summarized.     

Youger Dryas and Heinrich events recorded by magnetic susceptibility of sediments from the central temperature area of Western Pacific Warm Pool

Three short geomagnetic excursions, the Go thenburg, Mono Lake and Mungo (or Maelifell) in the Brunhes Positive Polarity period, were revealed based on the studies of magnetostratigraphy, susceptibility (χ) and δ^18O of sediments in core WP 92-5 from the central temperature area of the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP), and the ages of them are 12.1--11.3 kaBP, 25.0--24.0 kaBP, and 31.0--28.0 kaBP respectively. Furthermore, the Younger Dryas (YD) and Heinrich (H) cold events were also discovered in this core by the susceptibility record. The YD cold event occurred at the depth of 30--22 cm with an age of 11.5--10.6 kaBP; H1, H2 and H3 cold events occurred at depths of 51--39 cm, 108---91 cm and 140--126 cm with ages of 15.1--13.0 kaBP, 25.0--22.1 kaBP and 30.6---28.2 kaBP respectively, which well correspond to the HI, H2, H3 events recorded by susceptibility of core SU90-09 from middle Atlantic, indicating that the susceptibility change of marine sediments can be an important sign of climatic frequent fluctuations.     

传统文化、西方文化与中国现代化

中国在向现代化的目标迈进,现代化的发展过程遇到的一个主要问题是传统文化与西方文化的交锋,而现代化的模式不是唯一的西方模式,所以在两种文化的交锋中,我们来寻找两种文化的最佳结合点,这对建设中国特色的现代化具有重要意义。     

强磁场下电磁振荡强度与频率对Zn-20%Bi过偏晶合金显微组织的影响简

采用强磁场复合交变电流方法细化Zn-20％Bi过偏晶合金的显微凝固组织,研究了磁感应强度、电磁振荡强度和交变电流频率对Zn-20％Bi过偏晶合金显微组织的影响。随着磁感应强度的增加,合金组织中第二富Bi相粒径逐渐得到细化;随着电磁振荡强度的增加,富Bi相尺寸先减小后增加;随着交变电流频率的增加,富Bi相尺寸也是先减小后增加,存在一个最佳频率。并解释说明了各因素的影响机制。