Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions

All currently available climate models predict a near-surface warming trend under the influence of rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In addition to the direct effects on climate--for example, on the frequency of heatwaves--this increase in surface temperatures has important consequences for the hydrological cycle, particularly in regions where water supply is currently dominated by melting snow or ice. In a warmer world, less winter precipitation falls as snow and the melting of winter snow occurs earlier in spring. Even without any changes in precipitation intensity, both of these effects lead to a shift in peak river runoff to winter and early spring, away from summer and autumn when demand is highest. Where storage capacities are not sufficient, much of the winter runoff will immediately be lost to the oceans. With more than one-sixth of the Earth's population relying on glaciers and seasonal snow packs for their water supply, the consequences of these hydrological changes for future water availability--predicted with high confidence and already diagnosed in some regions--are likely to be severe.     

Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate

Radiative effects of anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition are expected to cause climate changes, in particular an intensification of the global water cycle with a consequent increase in flood risk. But the detection of anthropogenically forced changes in flooding is difficult because of the substantial natural variability; the dependence of streamflow trends on flow regime further complicates the issue. Here we investigate the changes in risk of great floods--that is, floods with discharges exceeding 100-year levels from basins larger than 200,000 km(2)--using both streamflow measurements and numerical simulations of the anthropogenic climate change associated with greenhouse gases and direct radiative effects of sulphate aerosols. We find that the frequency of great floods increased substantially during the twentieth century. The recent emergence of a statistically significant positive trend in risk of great floods is consistent with results from the climate model, and the model suggests that the trend will continue.     

Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide will almost certainly lead to changes in global mean climate. But because--by definition--extreme events are rare, it is significantly more difficult to quantify the risk of extremes. Ensemble-based probabilistic predictions, as used in short- and medium-term forecasts of weather and climate, are more useful than deterministic forecasts using a 'best guess' scenario to address this sort of problem. Here we present a probabilistic analysis of 19 global climate model simulations with a generic binary decision model. We estimate that the probability of total boreal winter precipitation exceeding two standard deviations above normal will increase by a factor of five over parts of the UK over the next 100 years. We find similar increases in probability for the Asian monsoon region in boreal summer, with implications for flooding in Bangladesh. Further practical applications of our techniques would be helped by the use of larger ensembles (for a more complete sampling of model uncertainty) and a wider range of scenarios at a resolution adequate to analyse average-size river basins.     

Global trends in emerging infectious diseases

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are a significant burden on global economies and public health. Their emergence is thought to be driven largely by socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, but no comparative study has explicitly analysed these linkages to understand global temporal and spatial patterns of EIDs. Here we analyse a database of 335 EID 'events' (origins of EIDs) between 1940 and 2004, and demonstrate non-random global patterns. EID events have risen significantly over time after controlling for reporting bias, with their peak incidence (in the 1980s) concomitant with the HIV pandemic. EID events are dominated by zoonoses (60.3% of EIDs): the majority of these (71.8%) originate in wildlife (for example, severe acute respiratory virus, Ebola virus), and are increasing significantly over time. We find that 54.3% of EID events are caused by bacteria or rickettsia, reflecting a large number of drug-resistant microbes in our database. Our results confirm that EID origins are significantly correlated with socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, and provide a basis for identifying regions where new EIDs are most likely to originate (emerging disease 'hotspots'). They also reveal a substantial risk of wildlife zoonotic and vector-borne EIDs originating at lower latitudes where reporting effort is low. We conclude that global resources to counter disease emergence are poorly allocated, with the majority of the scientific and surveillance effort focused on countries from where the next important EID is least likely to originate.     

Impact of climate change on streamflow in the Xitiaoxi catchment, Taihu Basin

The impact of climate change on streamflow in the Xitiaoxi catchment is assessed by using VIC (variable infiltration capacity) model coupled with PRECIS (providing regional climate for impacts studies). Results show that the VIC model is adaptable for the study area. Both deterministic coefficient and Nash-Suttcliffe efficiency coefficient are greater than 0.75, with a good agreement between observed and simulated discharge. The runoff will increase in the future, especially during flood seasons. The magnitude of floods in the future (2021–2050) under A2 and B2 scenarios will be greater than that during the baseline period (1961–1990), but it may not exceed that during the 1990s.     

Microseismological evidence for a changing wave climate in the northeast Atlantic Ocean

One possible consequence of a change in climate over the past several decades is an increase in wave heights, potentially threatening coastal areas as well as the marine industry. But the difficulties in observing wave heights exacerbates a general problem of climate-change detection: inhomogeneities in long-term observational records owing to changes in the instruments or techniques used, which may cause artificial trends. Ground movements with periods of 4-16 seconds, known as microseisms, are associated with ocean waves and coastal surf, and have been recorded continuously since the early days of seismology. Here we use such a 40-year record of wintertime microseisms from Hamburg, Germany, to reconstruct the wave climate in the northeast Atlantic Ocean. For the period 1954-77, we detect an average of seven days per month with strong microseismic activity, without a significant trend. This number increases significantly in the second half of the record, reaching approximately 14 days of strong microseisms per month. The implied increase in northeast Atlantic wave height over the past 20 years parallels increased surface air temperatures and storminess in this region, suggesting a common forcing.     

气候变化对挠力河径流量的影响

利用Mann Kendall突变检验法分别分析了1956—2005年50年来的宝清站和菜嘴子站年平均径流量演变的阶段性特征,并建立了径流 降雨的经验模型,利用该模型分析了气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响.研究结果表明：50年来宝清站和菜嘴子站的年平均径流量演变可分为两个阶段:1956—1967年的基准期和1968—2005年的变化期.变化期内径流量的年际和年内都发生了较大变化,体现在年平均径流量减少显著,两个站的年平均径流量减少量都在50%左右.径流变差系数有不同程度的增长,其中菜嘴子站增长了近30%.年内分配变化主要体现在径流峰值上,菜嘴子站的夏季径流峰值和最低值的出现时间都较第一阶段提前了一个月.变化期内年均径流量的变化主要是由人类活动引起的,气候变化引起的径流量变化占年均径流量总变化量的40%左右.     

基于时空分布的阳澄湖营养化进程及其趋势

目的:研究阳澄湖营养状态变化.方法:基于2002-2012年的水质监测数据,以生态学指标(叶绿素a)、营养盐指标(总氮、总磷)及理化指标(高锰酸盐指数、透明度)作为评价因子,运用综合营养状态指数法和ArcGIS反距离权重插值法对时空分布下的阳澄湖营养程度进行了定量判别,并用spearman秩相关系数检验法对其变化趋势进行分析.结果:阳澄湖总体呈轻度富营养状态,TLI值西湖中湖东湖.年际间各湖区TLI值波动平稳,最大TLI值为60.7,出现在2008年的西湖.结论:整体变化大致可以分为直线上升、缓慢波动和水质转好3个阶段;空间上由西湖向东湖递减,南侧水质略优于北侧;湖泊营养状况总体得到好转,SD呈显著上升趋势,TN、TP和COD_(Mn)呈高度显著下降趋势,TLI呈显著下降趋势.     

Removal of chlorofluorocarbons by increased mass exchange between the stratosphere and troposphere in a changing climate

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), along with bromine compounds, have been unequivocally identified as being responsible for most of the anthropogenic destruction of stratospheric ozone. With curbs on emissions of these substances, the recovery of the ozone layer will depend on their removal from the atmosphere. As CFCs have no significant tropospheric removal process, but are rapidly photolysed above the lower stratosphere, the timescale for their removal is set mainly by the rate at which air is transported from the troposphere into the stratosphere. Using a global climate model we predict that, in response to the projected changes in greenhouse-gas concentrations during the first half of the twenty-first century, this rate of mass exchange will increase by 3% per decade. This increase is due to more vigorous extra-tropical planetary waves emanating from the troposphere. We estimate that this increase in mass exchange will accelerate the removal of CFCs to an extent that recovery to levels currently predicted for 2050 and 2080 will occur 5 and 10 years earlier, respectively.     

混凝土强度随时间变化趋势及微裂缝的影响

混凝土在各类工程中应用越来越广泛,混凝土的强度随时间增长趋势及其影响因素有必要去掌握.结合试验对其强度增长进行了阐述并对微裂缝的影响进行了分析,对混凝土施工过程有一定的指导作用.     

环境磁学在第四纪气候与环境研究中的应用

阐述了新兴的交叉学科环境磁学的原理及矿物学参数,论述了环境磁学在第四纪气候与环境中的应用,也指出了环境磁学存在的问题与发展的趋势。     

Global metabolic impacts of recent climate warming

Documented shifts in geographical ranges, seasonal phenology, community interactions, genetics and extinctions have been attributed to recent global warming. Many such biotic shifts have been detected at mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere-a latitudinal pattern that is expected because warming is fastest in these regions. In contrast, shifts in tropical regions are expected to be less marked because warming is less pronounced there. However, biotic impacts of warming are mediated through physiology, and metabolic rate, which is a fundamental measure of physiological activity and ecological impact, increases exponentially rather than linearly with temperature in ectotherms. Therefore, tropical ectotherms (with warm baseline temperatures) should experience larger absolute shifts in metabolic rate than the magnitude of tropical temperature change itself would suggest, but the impact of climate warming on metabolic rate has never been quantified on a global scale. Here we show that estimated changes in terrestrial metabolic rates in the tropics are large, are equivalent in magnitude to those in the north temperate-zone regions, and are in fact far greater than those in the Arctic, even though tropical temperature change has been relatively small. Because of temperature's nonlinear effects on metabolism, tropical organisms, which constitute much of Earth's biodiversity, should be profoundly affected by recent and projected climate warming.     

外界胁迫作用下塔里木河流域径流变化响应的敏感性

采用Pettitt检验法及累积距平等方法相互验证,合理地将历史长序列划分确定为基准期(1960—1971年)、改变期Ⅰ(1972—1985年)及改变期Ⅱ(1986—2015年)。采用基于Budyko假设的Choudhury公式和水量平衡方法,计算分析塔里木河流域径流变化对外界气候变化和人类活动的响应敏感性及其敏感性系数的空间分布。研究表明:(a)径流变化对人类活动的敏感性较高。(b)降水增加对径流增加起促进作用,而潜在蒸发和下垫面参数增加使径流减少;自基准期到改变期Ⅱ,径流变化对降水、潜在蒸散发和下垫面参数的敏感性系数显著增加,在改变期Ⅱ敏感性系数分别为1.26、-0.26、-1.88。(c)敏感性系数空间分布存在差异性,流域中下游敏感性系数较上游敏感性系数高。(d)根据径流变化的敏感性及时采取应对措施对流域水资源开发利用与调配管理具有积极作用。     

Global analysis theory of climate system and its applications

The idea and main theoretical results of the global analysis theory of climate system are briefly summarized in this paper. A theorem on the global behavior of climate system is given, i.e. there exists a global attractor in the dynamical equations of climate, any state of climate system will be evolved into the global attractor as time increases,indicating the nonlinear adjustment process of climate system to external forcing. The different effects of external forcing, dissipation and nonlinearity on the long-term behavior of solutions are pointed out, and some main applications of the global analysis theory are also introduced. Especially, three applications, the adjustment and evolution processes of climate, the principle of numerical model design and the optimally numerical integration, are discussed.     

额尔齐斯河流域气候特征及变化趋势分析

选取额尔齐斯河流域斋桑泊、塞米巴拉金斯克、鄂木斯克、托博尔斯克4个代表站1948~1995年实测逐月降水与气温资料,利用距平分析法、5年滑动平均法、坎德尔秩次相关检验法及相关水文统计方法对流域内气候特征及变化趋势进行了分析.结果表明:额尔齐斯河流域年均降水量在200~500mm之间,主要集中于夏、秋两季,下游降水较上游丰富,但年际变化下游小于上游;年及四季降水量在1948~1995年期间整体呈上升趋势;流域年均气温自上游到下游逐渐降低,但年际变化逐渐增大,流域年均气温多年来总体呈上升趋势.     

全球高端人才流动和集聚的影响因素研究

高端人才的流动与集聚对于全球高端产业的发展有着至关重要的影响作用。通过分析影响全球高端人才流动和集聚的关键因素,通过现有的条件来分析高端人才的集聚与流动现象趋势,并据此来研究与分析我国相关方面的政策来提升高端人才的集聚。     

冰期非对称气候变化模式与生物多样性的形成机制?

生物多样性的形成与维持机制是生态学中最具挑战的核心问题之一.本文研究了大量冰期相关文献,发现冰期除周期性的气温变化之外,每个气温变化周期都经历了漫长的降温过程和相对快速的升温过程,由此提出了冰期"慢降—快升"非对称气温变化模式.在非对称气候变化模式下,地球上的生物地理分布随之发生"慢退—快进"的收缩和扩张,群落中的物种经历了长时间的隔离和相对快速的重组,呈现"聚少离多"的特征.同时,通过许多亲缘地理学的研究案例,发现物种的遗传变异多发生于缓慢降温阶段,在升温阶段时,这些已经存在的突变常沿不同路线扩张,并再次相遇,是遗传变异重组的过程.本文提出通过建立大尺度的天然群落格局平台,涵盖群落"慢退—快进"历史演变过程,结合亲缘地理学方法,从多尺度、多维度真实地还原群落形成和维持过程,预测气候变化和人类影响下生物群落的未来.     

贵阳旱涝气候变化特征及其趋势分析

利用贵阳近500年(1470~2008年)旱涝等级资料,对贵阳旱涝展开气候变化特征及趋势分析。结果表明:近58年,贵阳出现极端旱、偏旱的频次明显高于过去近500年的平均状况;汛期出现偏旱和旱的次数明显增多,旱重于涝的趋势非常明显。从年代际和百年际尺度看,210年周期是贵阳旱涝振荡的主周期,而50年周期是次周期,且20世纪80年代的干旱程度高于历史上任何一个年代;从年际和年代际尺度上,24年周期是贵阳旱涝振荡的主周期,而7年周期是次周期。借助IPCC AR4最新的模式预估数据集,预估贵阳2011~2020年夏季降水处于旱涝交替频发期,且从本世纪20年代初至40年代中期将处于少雨阶段,可能会出现较长时期的干旱期。