Methodology used for producing ONS's small area population estimates

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has set up a project to investigate the feasibility of producing postcensal small area population estimates on a nationally consistent basis for England and Wales. Following on from earlier investigations to identify potential data sources and methods, ward and Super Output Area population estimates have been released as 'experimental statistics'. This article covers the methodology used to produce these estimates, feedback from user consultation with the initial estimates released at ward level, summary statistics on the population estimates for mid-2001 to mid-2003, and future developments for small area population estimates.     

Rebasing the annual mid-year population estimates for England and Wales

The ONS produces mid-year population estimates annually, which are based on updating from the most recent census. Therefore, whenever results become available from a census, a new base is created for the population estimates. This has implications for historic series, which need to be revised to be consistent with both the past and the most recent census. This article describes the methodology that will be used for this rebasing of the mid-year population estimates following the availability of results from the 2001 Census. Census results also provide a unique opportunity to assess the accuracy of the population estimates that are based on the previous census and this article also describes the approach that will be taken to the assessment of accuracy.     

The new subnational population projections model: methodology and projection scenarios

This article describes the most recent process of projecting population at the subnational level in England. It briefly explains the reasons why projecting population at the subnational level is important, describes the model and how it was used to produce the latest set of long-term subnational population projections in England published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in 1998. The article then discusses how the model may be applied to answer various 'what-if' questions about future population.     

基于VFT的装备发展战略决策分析方法论

在分析VFT(以价值为中心的决策分析方法)基本特点的基础上,论述了基于VFT的装备发展战略决策分析方法论,主要包括确定战略目标、开发价值模型、装备确认与评估、技术确认与评估和灵敏度分析5个逻辑步骤。该方法论主要用于分析、确定武器装备的发展方向、重点以及需要重点发展的关键技术领域。同时,该方法论将价值作为决策者的驱动力,允许决策者自由地创造或选择任何满足需求的备选方案,从而扩大决策空间,提高决策的科学性。最后,对目前正在研制的海军装备发展战略决策支持系统进行了简要说明。     

Small area population estimates project: data quality of administrative datasets

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has set up a project to investigate the feasibility of producing postcensal small area population estimates on a nationally consistent basis for England and Wales. Research has taken place to identify datasets that could potentially be used within a method to produce small area population estimates. Following an evaluation of a number of different administrative datasets, the most suitable have been short-listed for further consideration. This article presents the findings of the evaluation, based on 2001 data, and summarises the characteristics of these short-listed data sources. This article does not cover the methods that are being evaluated as part of the feasibility assessment.     

A design for environment methodology for evaluation and improvement of derivative consumer electronic product development

Increasing environmental awareness and stringent environmental regulations have motivated many companies to incorporate ecodesign into product development.To assist companies to address the challenge,this research presents a design for environment(DfE) methodology to evaluate and improve derivative consumer electronic product development using a back-propagation neural network(BPNN) model and a technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS) method.Based on use of a BPNN,the life cycle assessment(LCA) models are developed to estimate quantities of hazardous chemical substances and energy consumption for a derivative consumer electronic product throughout the product life cycle.A performance evaluation and improvement model for DfE is then devised based on the TOPSIS method to analyze the ecodesign performance and provide concrete improvement strategies.With the aforementioned analysis of environmental performance,an enterprise can profoundly understand and significantly enhance the relative DfE performance of a new product compared to the similar competitive products.Finally,we apply an optical mouse development project as a case to elaborate and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.These analytical results can let us understand the DfE performance ranking and acquire the maximum reduced quantity of each DfE criterion for each module of a new product.Meanwhile,to enhance the green competitiveness of the new product,we recommend that the engineers should decrease the area of the circuit board of the new product.In addition,the material of the USB cable for the new product should be switched from the PVC material to the PE material.     

Towards a methodology for organisational intervention in Colombian enterprises

The lack of autonomy of people in the working place is the basic problem addressed by the methodology for organisational intervention that has been developed by the group TESO at the University of Los Andes in Bogota. This lack of autonomy accounts for their lack of creativity, motivation, and political consciousness. We take Freire's conception of consciousness as related to social formations, and how autonomy is achieved by working with his methodology. We also use Heidegger's concepts of calculative and meditative thinking and relate them to the development of consciousness. Finally we show how through a methodology that facilitates contact of persons with the self, the workspace, and others, they develop autonomy and an ability to define conflicts and work out ways to stransform their world.     

随机需求直通配送一次转载时间的选择

对于随机需求的直通配送系统，在运行过程中按一定规则对各分中心的当时库存进行重新分配(转载)，可以减少非均衡性缺货，提高系统的服务水平。本文分析了在配送周期内只进行一次预防性转载更加合理，并给出了确定转载时间的方法。     

The feasibility of making short-term migration estimates

Short-term migration, that is stays of less than 12 months, has received particular attention recently from both national and local level users of population statistics. This interest is part of the wider interest shown in increasing levels of long-term migration statistics in recent years. This article is an initial assessment by ONS of the potential to produce short-term migration estimates for England and Wales, and the challenges faced in doing so. Central to these challenges is the question of how short-term migration should be defined. In addition, illustrative estimates of short-term migration based on the International Passenger Survey (IPS) are provided. These illustrative estimates, along with associated standard errors, are provided at both national and regional levels using a number of definitional bases.     

THE AHP： A MULTICRITERIA DECISION MAKING METHODOLOGY FOR SHIFTWORK PRIORITIZING

1. Introduction The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for decision-making uses objective mathematics to process the inescapably subjective and personal preferences of an individual or a group in making a decision. With the AHP, we construct hierarchies that have a first level of strategic or politic criteria, then expand each one of these criteria into more specific subcriteria until reach the terminal criteria, the behavior indicators. Later, makes judgments or performs measurements on pai…     

分期种植对特种玉米生育及青嫩鲜穗产量的影响

试验研究结果表明,分期种植对特种玉米生长发育及青嫩鲜穗产量的影响,主要体现在晚播种比早播种生育进程加快,青嫩鲜穗产量降低;覆膜种植比同期露天种植生育进程加快,青嫩鲜穗产量增加。试验中6个品种表现一致,分3期播种,每期间隔16d,从播种到乳熟采收全程天数,第2期比第1期缩短3d～5d,第3期比第2期缩短4d～6d;青嫩鲜穗产量第2期比第1期降低1 1%～18 5%、第3期比第2期降低0 2%～22 1%。覆膜种植比同期露天种植生育期提早4d～6d,产量提高1 5%～11 4%。表3,参4。     

农业生产宏观决策支持系统的研究

系统地论述了开发农业宏观决策系统的背景和意义，提出了基于数据仓库的决策支持系统的开发思路，将数据开采技术引入该系统中，使系统的功能更强大，也降低了开发的难度，完成了农业宏观决策支持系统的总体框架设计和各模块的开发。图5，参13。     

基于规则和方法的企业过程优化

如何进行企业过程再设计是当前企业过程再工程（ｂｕｓｉｎｅｓｓ ｐｒｏｃｅｓｓ ｅｅｅｎｇｉｎｅｅｒｉｎｇ,ＢＰＲ）的主要研究课题。企业过程的优化又是企业过程再设计的关键内容。本文从管理思想的转变、基于超图的过程信息流的分析和基于信息技术的过程结构的优化三个方面提出了过程优化的六条规则,从而为企业过程的再设计提供的指导和方法。     

间谍经纪人的最优侦查规模和决策阈值

为了考察争当少数者博弈模型中引入间谍经纪人后,间谍的侦查规模和决策阈值分布情况,考察了在不同比例间谍数目的情况下,间谍采取优胜劣汰的原则调整更换他们的侦查规模或决策阈值,发现当间谍数目较少时,间谍侦查规模取大数的数目比例居多;而当间谍数目较多时,间谍侦查规模取小数的比例居多。当侦查规模较小时,间谍倾向于取一半的决策阈值;而当侦查规模较大时,不同间谍的决策阈值分布比较广泛。     

More reliable minority ethnic population estimates and proportions for local areas: which areas to select and other choices to be made--an exploratory analysis

Central and Local Government and other organisations are interested, for a variety of purposes, in obtaining better--more reliable--estimates of the proportions of the total populations in local authority districts which belong to the minority ethnic population. In inter-censal periods, this aim could be met, for example, by an increase in the size of the Labour Force Survey sample in selected areas. This article considers the optimal sample size for each area under different criteria to improve the reliability of its estimated minority ethnic proportion.     

基于实物期权的矿业投资最佳时机决策模型

根据矿业投资项目的投资特征，分析了矿产品价格和成本的随机性，运用实物期权理论，建立了矿业投资最佳时机决策模型，运用实例验证了模型的有效性。     

复杂系统的计算机模拟--探索复杂性的模型方法

组成系统的个体是有适应性的。个体的适应性就产生了系统的复杂性。用象在Swarm，Starlogo等模拟软件平台上的计算机程序，描述个体的行为，在一定的框架之下，个体平行地动作起来，这包括个体对外界的适应、偶然的小情况、个体的相互作用…如此，计算机模拟就比较真实地反映了复杂世界的一个个方面。几个学者构造了一个电力批发市场的ACE模型，认识了市场结构和市场均衡的规律。说明计算机模拟是探索复杂性的利器。     

The sizes and characteristics of the minority ethnic populations of Great Britain--latest estimates

This article presents estimates of the minority ethnic populations of Great Britain in 2000 and describes the regional distributions of the different groups. It also discusses changes in the sizes of the different minority ethnic populations during the 1990s. The paper provides information on some key demographic features of these populations at the end of the 1990s--age and sex structures, proportions born in the United Kingdom and whether children lived with their natural parents.