基于Reissner理论的硬夹心夹层板的弯曲研究

传统的夹层板理论都是将夹心视为软夹心,不考虑其面内应力分量和抗弯刚度.本文在修正了Reissner理论的基础上,研究了硬夹心夹层板的弯曲问题,根据最小势能原理得到了具有3个广义位移的弯曲基本方程和边界条件,并对其进行了简化.同时还研究了硬夹心夹层板弯曲问题的有限元格式,推导了4节点四边形等参单元单元刚度矩阵和等效节点载荷列阵,并给出了矩形填充多孔夹层板的ANSYS实体模型解,计算结果表明位移的有限元解收敛于解析解且具有足够的精度,与ANSYS实体模型解也有较好的一致性.     

Molecular basis for differences between human joints

The molecular program of a cell determines responses including induction or inhibition of genes for function and activity, and this is true of the cells within articular cartilage, a major functional component of the joint. While our studies have previously focussed on differences in the molecular programs of the cells within the superficial and deep zones, we have recently begun to focus on relative differences between joints, such as the knee and ankle. In the human, these joints vary greatly in their susceptibility to joint diseases, such as osteoarthritis (OA). We have predicted that there would be a molecular basis for differences between joints that could lead to differences in susceptibility to OA, if inherent pathways locked into the resident cells induce differences in their response to their environment. We have been able to show that there are differences between the matrix components and water content; these properties correspond to a higher equilibrium modulus and dynamic stiffness but lower hydraulic permeability and serve to make the ankle cartilage stiffer, slowing movement of molecules through the cartilage. In addition to these biochemical differences in the cartilage matrix, we have also identified relative differences in the strength of the response to stimulation of chondrocytes from knee and ankle. The stronger response of the knee chondrocytes includes factors that increase damage to the cartilage matrix, such as a depression of matrix synthesis and increased enzyme activity. This response by the knee chondrocytes results in enzyme damage to the matrix that the cells may not be able to repair, while the weaker response of the ankle chondrocytes may allow the cells to repair their matrix damage.     

改进果蝇优化算法优化广义回归神经网络的预测问题研究

为提高传统非线性预测模型的预测精度,提出一种基于改进果蝇优化算法优化广义回归神经网络的预测方法,将果蝇群体分两部分分别进行迭代寻优,从而改进了果蝇优化算法的寻优性能,进而避免了在寻优过程中陷入局部最优。该方法利用改进果蝇优化算法优化广义回归神经网络的径向基函数扩展参数,然后用训练好的广义回归神经网络预测模型进行预测,最后通过订单预测算例进行实证研究。实证研究结果显示,该方法在解决订单预测问题中与未改进的果蝇优化算法优化广义回归神经网络和传统的广义回归神经网络方法对比,具有更高的预测精度和更好的非线性拟合能力。     

一元不可微函数的局部分数阶微分的基本理论

本文讨论了基于Jumarie的分数阶微积分理论的修正局部分数阶导数,推广了局部分数阶导数的基本理论,给出了局部分数阶导数的唯一性,并且证明了局部分数阶导数的罗尔定理、微分中值定理、广义的柯西中值定理及其洛必达法则。     

力学中非线性方程常用解法的比较及其改进

详细分析了力学中非线性问题常用解法Euler—Cauchy及Newton-Raphson法。论证了这两种方法均是将原非线性方程在求解过程中线性化，用一系列线性方程去逼近原非线性问题导致了误差存在。本文详细分析了上述两种算法的优缺点。将两种算法的优点进行组合，推荐一种基于梯形公式的改良算法。在不增加计算工作量的前提下该法不仅收敛快、收敛半径大，而且计算精度高。最后基于Lagrange微分中值定理论述了加权平均刚度法。     

Improving Forecast of Binary Rare Events Data: A GAM‐Based Approach

This paper develops a method for modelling binary response data in a regression model with highly unbalanced class sizes. When the class sizes are highly unbalanced and the minority class represents a rare event, conventional regression analysis, i.e. logistic regression models, could underestimate the probability of the rare event. To overcome this drawback, we introduce a flexible skewed link function based on the quantile function of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution in a generalized additive model (GAM). The proposed model is known as generalized extreme value additive (GEVA) regression model, and a modified version of the local scoring algorithm is suggested to estimate it. We apply the proposed model to a dataset on Italian small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to estimate the default probability of SMEs. Our proposal performs better than the logistic (linear or additive) model in terms of predictive accuracy. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Adaptive prediction for stochastic processes with markov jump parameters

This paper is concerned with the adaptive prediction for stochastic processes with abruptly changing parameters modelled as a finite-state Markov chain. The Markov transition matrix is assumed to be known. For the coloured noise disturbance case, it is shown that the optimal prediction algorithm requires a bank of elemental predictors running in parallel with its number growing exponentially with time. If the noise disturbance is white, it is found that the number of the elemental predictors required increases exponentially with the prediction ahead step instead of time. A suboptimal predictor is proposed with substantial reduced storage and computational requirements. Simulation examples show the good performance of the proposed algorithms.     

Combining forecasts using optimal combination weight and generalized autoregression

In this paper, we consider a combined forecast using an optimal combination weight in a generalized autoregression framework. The generalized autoregression provides not only a combined forecast but also an optimal combination weight for combining forecasts. By simulation, we find that short‐ and medium‐horizon (as well as partly long‐horizon) forecasts from the generalized autoregression using the optimal combination weight are more efficient than those from the usual autoregression in terms of the mean‐squared forecast error. An empirical application with US gross domestic product confirms the simulation result. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Testing for (common) stochastic trends in the presence of structural breaks

This paper considers the problem of testing for the presence of stochastic trends in multivariate time series with structural breaks. The breakpoints are assumed to be known. The testing framework is the multivariate locally best invariant test and the common trend test of Nyblom and Harvey (2000). The asymptotic distributions of the test statistics are derived under a specification of the deterministic component which allows for structural breaks. Asymptotic critical values are provided for the case of a single breakpoint. A modified statistic is then proposed, the asymptotic distribution of which is independent of the breakpoint location and belongs to the Cramér‐von Mises family. This modification is particularly advantageous in the case of multiple breakpoints. It is also shown that the asymptotic distributions of the test statistics are unchanged when seasonal dummy variables and/or weakly dependent exogenous regressors are included. Finally, as an example, the tests are applied to UK macroeconomic data and to data on road casualties in Great Britain. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Innovators and imitators in innovation diffusion modelling

We examine the theoretical underpinnings of the Bass innovation diffusion model and show that, contrary to the present understanding in the literature, it does not describe the behavioural theory of an innovator-imitator dichotomy within the adopting population as was intended. Rather, this model describes the behaviour of a homogeneous population in which it is assumed that product adoption occurs as a result of exposure to a news source or from the binary interaction between adopters and non-adopters. We provide an alternative framework in which the innovator-imitator explanation of diffusion is explicitly incorporated. In the so-called two-compartment model the innovators and imitators constitute two distinct but interacting subpopulations. However, the added structural complexity cannot be supported by the available diffusion data, resulting in unsatisfactory model estimation results. This suggests that the innovator-imitator population dichotomy assumed to underlie the present understanding of the innovation diffusion process may be inappropriate. Replacing it with the assumption of a homogeneous population could have potentially important implications for new product advertising strategies.     

应用于微结构制造自治系统的第I类工艺缺陷诊断

在集成电路制造中,通常采用各电学参数的测试值来衡量和评价工艺效果。一种可能的工艺后果是,出现了测量结果偏离预定目标的第I类工艺缺陷。传统上的基于SPC的工艺控制技术,不含工艺诊断的内容,在寻找造成工艺失效的原因时,存在着巨大的困难。本文对集成电路制造过程中所涉及到的几类重要参数间的关系,进行了详细的分析,由此确定造成诊断问题困难的根本原因,在于测试现象与工艺故障因素之间是多对多的关系。通过正交化的方法,可以将测试参数转化成为一组广义参数。广义参数与故障因素之间存在着一对一的联系。这样就找到了一种有效的,从异常的广义参数值确定失效原因的工艺诊断方法。本文对第I类工艺诊断的技术进行了讨论。在集成电路制造自自治系统中,对于I类工艺缺陷的纠正过程,也就是工艺结果不断向工艺目标趋近的过程。     

Forecasting time‐varying covariance with a robust Bayesian threshold model

This paper proposes a robust multivariate threshold vector autoregressive model with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticities and dynamic conditional correlations to describe conditional mean, volatility and correlation asymmetries in financial markets. In addition, the threshold variable for regime switching is formulated as a weighted average of endogenous variables to eliminate excessively subjective belief in the threshold variable decision and to serve as the proxy in deciding which market should be the price leader. The estimation is performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Furthermore, several meaningful criteria are introduced to assess the forecasting performance in the conditional covariance matrix. The proposed methodology is illustrated using daily S&P500 futures and spot prices. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bilinear correlation between tissue water content and diastolic stiffness of the ventricular myocardium

Summary In oedematous and dehydrated canine hearts a close bilinear correlation was demonstrated between myocardial water content and diastolic stiffness (characterized by the passive elastic modulus) with an optimal minimum of stiffness at normal myocardial water content.     

The total cost of misclassification in credit scoring: A comparison of generalized linear models and generalized additive models

This study examines whether the evaluation of a bankruptcy prediction model should take into account the total cost of misclassification. For this purpose, we introduce and apply a validity measure in credit scoring that is based on the total cost of misclassification. Specifically, we use comprehensive data from the annual financial statements of a sample of German companies and analyze the total cost of misclassification by comparing a generalized linear model and a generalized additive model with regard to their ability to predict a company's probability of default. On the basis of these data, the validity measure we introduce shows that, compared to generalized linear models, generalized additive models can reduce substantially the extent of misclassification and the total cost that this entails. The validity measure we introduce is informative and justifies the argument that generalized additive models should be preferred, although such models are more complex than generalized linear models. We conclude that to balance a model's validity and complexity, it is necessary to take into account the total cost of misclassification.     

The influence of hyperosmolality on heart function

Summary Hyperosmolality produces a reduction in myocardial water content, an increase in ventricular stiffness and coronary blood flow, and a decrease in ventricular performance. The alterations of myocardial dehydration and ventricular stiffness are more pronounced in glucose-induced, and those of ventricular performance in urea-induced hyperosmolality.     

Empirical progress and nomic truth approximation revisited

In my From Instrumentalism to Constructive Realism (2000) I have shown how an instrumentalist account of empirical progress can be related to nomic truth approximation. However, it was assumed that a strong notion of nomic theories was needed for that analysis. In this paper it is shown, in terms of truth and falsity content, that the analysis already applies when, in line with scientific common sense, nomic theories are merely assumed to exclude certain conceptual possibilities as nomic possibilities.     

Einstein׳s Equations for Spin 2 Mass 0 from Noether׳s Converse Hilbertian Assertion

An overlap between the general relativist and particle physicist views of Einstein gravity is uncovered. Noether׳s 1918 paper developed Hilbert׳s and Klein׳s reflections on the conservation laws. Energy-momentum is just a term proportional to the field equations and a ‘curl’ term with identically zero divergence. Noether proved a converse “Hilbertian assertion”: such “improper” conservation laws imply a generally covariant action.Later and independently, particle physicists derived the nonlinear Einstein equations assuming the absence of negative-energy degrees of freedom (“ghosts”) for stability, along with universal coupling: all energy-momentum including gravity׳s serves as a source for gravity. Those assumptions (all but) imply (for 0 graviton mass) that the energy-momentum is only a term proportional to the field equations and a symmetric “curl,” which implies the coalescence of the flat background geometry and the gravitational potential into an effective curved geometry. The flat metric, though useful in Rosenfeld׳s stress-energy definition, disappears from the field equations. Thus the particle physics derivation uses a reinvented Noetherian converse Hilbertian assertion in Rosenfeld-tinged form.The Rosenfeld stress-energy is identically the canonical stress-energy plus a Belinfante curl and terms proportional to the field equations, so the flat metric is only a convenient mathematical trick without ontological commitment. Neither generalized relativity of motion, nor the identity of gravity and inertia, nor substantive general covariance is assumed. The more compelling criterion of lacking ghosts yields substantive general covariance as an output. Hence the particle physics derivation, though logically impressive, is neither as novel nor as ontologically laden as it has seemed.     

POLSAR图像杂波L分布建模及其参数估计

基于乘积模型的杂波统计建模是进行高分辨极化合成孔径雷达(POLSAR)图像非均匀区域杂波统计特性分析的有效方法,其核心在于纹理分量随机分布的类型选择.广义伽马分布(GΓD)是一种普适性很强的分布类型,Weibull分布、伽马分布、逆伽马分布等都是GΓD分布的特例,因此基于GΓD分布的图像乘性杂波建模既满足杂波建模的高精度要求,同时成为各种雷达杂波辨识的有效工具.本文首先推导了服从GΓD分布的随机变量的高阶矩特征及其对数累积量(MLC),利用纹理分量服从GΓD分布情形构建了乘积相干斑模型,得到了适用于POLSAR图像处理的L分布杂波多视处理的协方差矩阵的概率分布函数,同时推导了其高阶矩特征及其对数累积量,提出了基于对数累积量的L分布参数估计新方法.针对样本数较少的情况下对数累积量参数估计失效问题提出了基于混合矩(MME)的参数估计方法来解决.然后给出了不同分布的高阶矩和对数累积量,通过二三阶对数累积量关系图辨析了常用分布与L分布的内在关系,得到了L分布是目前乘积模型中适用范围较为广泛的统计分布的结论.最后用仿真数据验证了理论推导的正确性,并将基于对数累积量的参数估计方法与已有方法进行了比较,结果证明新参数估计方法具有更高的估计精度和运算效率;另外,还用实测数据进行了统计模型检验,其结果验证了理论推导的正确性.极化SAR中多视图像L分布杂波的统计建模及其参数估计方法为极化SAR目标检测和识别等领域的新技术研究提供了新手段.     

Fritz London and the scale of quantum mechanisms

Fritz London's seminal idea of “quantum mechanisms of macroscopic scale”, first articulated in 1946, was the unanticipated result of two decades of research, during which London pursued quantum-mechanical explanations of various kinds of systems of particles at different scales. He started at the microphysical scale with the hydrogen molecule, generalized his approach to chemical bonds and intermolecular forces, then turned to macrophysical systems like superconductors and superfluid helium. Along this path, he formulated a set of concepts—the quantum mechanism of exchange, the rigidity of the wave function, the role of quantum statistics in multi-particle systems, the possibility of order in momentum space—that eventually coalesced into a new conception of systems of equal particles. In particular, it was London's clarification of Bose-Einstein condensation that enabled him to formulate the notion of superfluids, and led him to the recognition that quantum mechanics was not, as it was commonly assumed, relevant exclusively as a micromechanics.     

Cocci and diphtheroids in blood cultures from patients in various pathological situations

The evolution of cocci and diphtheroids taking origin from cell-wall-deficient forms seems not to be related to a particular state of illness, but to be the consequence of a generalized crypto-infection.