Seasonal dynamics of recurrent epidemics

Seasonality is a driving force that has a major effect on the spatio-temporal dynamics of natural systems and their populations. This is especially true for the transmission of common infectious diseases (such as influenza, measles, chickenpox and pertussis), and is of great relevance for host-parasite relationships in general. Here we gain further insights into the nonlinear dynamics of recurrent diseases through the analysis of the classical seasonally forced SIR (susceptible, infectious or recovered) epidemic model. Our analysis differs from other modelling studies in that the focus is more on post-epidemic dynamics than the outbreak itself. Despite the mathematical intractability of the forced SIR model, we identify a new threshold effect and give clear analytical conditions for predicting the occurrence of either a future epidemic outbreak, or a 'skip'-a year in which an epidemic fails to initiate. The threshold is determined by the population's susceptibility measured after the last outbreak and the rate at which new susceptible individuals are recruited into the population. Moreover, the time of occurrence (that is, the phase) of an outbreak proves to be a useful parameter that carries important epidemiological information. In forced systems, seasonal changes can prevent late-peaking diseases (that is, those having high phase) from spreading widely, thereby increasing population susceptibility, and controlling the triggering and intensity of future epidemics. These principles yield forecasting tools that should have relevance for the study of newly emerging and re-emerging diseases controlled by seasonal vectors.     

Ecological interference between fatal diseases

An important issue in population biology is the dynamic interaction between pathogens. Interest has focused mainly on the indirect interaction of pathogen strains, mediated by cross immunity. However, a mechanism has recently been proposed for 'ecological interference' between pathogens through the removal of individuals from the susceptible pool after an acute infection. To explore this possibility, we have analysed and modelled historical measles and whooping cough records. Here we show that ecological interference is particularly strong when fatal infections permanently remove susceptibles. Disease interference has substantial dynamical consequences, making multi-annual outbreaks of different infections characteristically out of phase. So, when disease prevalence is high and is associated with significant mortality, it might be impossible to understand epidemic patterns by studying pathogens in isolation. This new ecological null model has important consequences for understanding the multi-strain dynamics of pathogens such as dengue and echoviruses.     

最优阻隔控制在一类SIRS多组群传染病中的应用

该文基于一类SIRS多组群传染病模型讨论了传染病控制中的最优阻隔控制.模型中的控制变量表示为达到阻滞和隔离组群之间接触所采取的各种措施的强度.利用Pontryagin 极大值原理求解了最优控制问题并给出了相应的数值迭代算法.仿真结果表明该文提出的最优阻隔控制策略在使传染病代价最小化的同时可以有效地控制传染病的流行,同时也表明现实中采取的"早发现早隔离"策略在传染病控制中的重要性.     

Metapopulation dynamics of bubonic plague

Bubonic plague is widely regarded as a disease of mainly historical importance; however, with increasing reports of incidence and the discovery of antibiotic-resistant strains of the plague bacterium Yersinia pestis, it is re-emerging as a significant health concerns. Here we bypass the conventional human-disease models, and propose that bubonic plague is driven by the dynamics of the disease in the rat population. Using a stochastic, spatial metapopulation model, we show that bubonic plague can persist in relatively small rodent populations from which occasional human epidemics arise, without the need for external imports. This explains why historically the plague persisted despite long disease-free periods, and how the disease re-occurred in cities with tight quarantine control. In a contemporary setting, we show that human vaccination cannot eradicate the plague, and that culling of rats may prevent or exacerbate human epidemics, depending on the timing of the cull. The existence of plague reservoirs in wild rodent populations has important public-health implications for the transmission to urban rats and the subsequent risk of human outbreaks.     

Dynamic spreading behavior of homogeneous and heterogeneous networks

The detailed investigation of the dynamic epidemic spreading on homogeneous and heterogeneous networks was carried out. After the analysis of the basic epidemic models, the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on homogenous and heterogeneous networks is established, and the dynamical evolution of the density of the infected individuals in these two different kinds of networks is analyzed theoretically. It indicates that heterogeneous networks are easier to propagate for the epidemics and the leading spreading behavior is dictated by the exponential increasing in the initial outbreaks. Large-scale simulations display that the infection is much faster on heterogeneous networks than that on homogeneous ones. It means that the network topology can have a significant effect on the epidemics taking place on complex networks. Some containment strategies of epidemic outbreaks are presented according to the theoretical analyses and numerical simulations.     

Dynamic spreading behavior of homogeneous and heterogeneous networks

The detailed investigation of the dynamic epidemic spreading on homogeneous and heterogeneous networks was carried out. After the analysis of the basic epidemic models, the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on homogenous and heterogeneous networks is established, and the dynamical evolution of the density of the infected individuals in these two different kinds of networks is analyzed theoretically. It indicates that heterogeneous networks are easier to propagate for the epidemics and the leading spreading behavior is dictated by the exponential increasing in the initial outbreaks. Large-scale simulations display that the infection is much faster on heterogeneous networks than that on homogeneous ones. It means that the network topology can have a significant effect on the epidemics taking place on complex networks. Some containment strategies of epidemic outbreaks are presented according to the theoretical analyses and numerical simulations.     

Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics.

Spatio-temporal travelling waves are striking manifestations of predator-prey and host-parasite dynamics. However, few systems are well enough documented both to detect repeated waves and to explain their interaction with spatio-temporal variations in population structure and demography. Here, we demonstrate recurrent epidemic travelling waves in an exhaustive spatio-temporal data set for measles in England and Wales. We use wavelet phase analysis, which allows for dynamical non-stationarity--a complication in interpreting spatio-temporal patterns in these and many other ecological time series. In the pre-vaccination era, conspicuous hierarchical waves of infection moved regionally from large cities to small towns; the introduction of measles vaccination restricted but did not eliminate this hierarchical contagion. A mechanistic stochastic model suggests a dynamical explanation for the waves-spread via infective 'sparks' from large 'core' cities to smaller 'satellite' towns. Thus, the spatial hierarchy of host population structure is a prerequisite for these infection waves.     

Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data

The threat posed by the highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus requires public health authorities to prepare for a human pandemic. Although pre-pandemic vaccines and antiviral drugs might significantly reduce illness rates, their stockpiling is too expensive to be practical for many countries. Consequently, alternative control strategies, based on non-pharmaceutical interventions, are a potentially attractive policy option. School closure is the measure most often considered. The high social and economic costs of closing schools for months make it an expensive and therefore controversial policy, and the current absence of quantitative data on the role of schools during influenza epidemics means there is little consensus on the probable effectiveness of school closure in reducing the impact of a pandemic. Here, from the joint analysis of surveillance data and holiday timing in France, we quantify the role of schools in influenza epidemics and predict the effect of school closure during a pandemic. We show that holidays lead to a 20-29% reduction in the rate at which influenza is transmitted to children, but that they have no detectable effect on the contact patterns of adults. Holidays prevent 16-18% of seasonal influenza cases (18-21% in children). By extrapolation, we find that prolonged school closure during a pandemic might reduce the cumulative number of cases by 13-17% (18-23% in children) and peak attack rates by up to 39-45% (47-52% in children). The impact of school closure would be reduced if it proved difficult to maintain low contact rates among children for a prolonged period.     

SLAM (CDw150) is a cellular receptor for measles virus

Measles virus continues to be a major killer of children, claiming roughly one million lives a year. Measles virus infection causes profound immunosuppression, which makes measles patients susceptible to secondary infections accounting for high morbidity and mortality. The Edmonston strain of measles virus, and vaccine strains derived from it, use as a cellular receptor human CD46 (refs 3, 4), which is expressed on all nucleated cells; however, most clinical isolates of measles virus cannot use CD46 as a receptor. Here we show that human SLAM (signalling lymphocyte-activation molecule; also known as CDw150), a recently discovered membrane glycoprotein expressed on some T and B cells, is a cellular receptor for measles virus, including the Edmonston strain. Transfection with a human SLAM complementary DNA enables non-susceptible cell lines to bind measles virus, support measles virus replication and develop cytopathic effects. The distribution of SLAM on various cell lines is consistent with their susceptibility to clinical isolates of measles virus. The identification of SLAM as a receptor for measles virus opens the way to a better understanding of the pathogenesis of measles virus infection, especially the immunosuppression induced by measles virus.     

应用婴儿胎次率的人口系统模型

本文指出总和生育率与生育模式存在明显耦合,提出一种婴儿出生数计算公式和应用胎次率的人口系统模型.     

Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles

The control of epidemic malaria is a priority for the international health community and specific targets for the early detection and effective control of epidemics have been agreed. Interannual climate variability is an important determinant of epidemics in parts of Africa where climate drives both mosquito vector dynamics and parasite development rates. Hence, skilful seasonal climate forecasts may provide early warning of changes of risk in epidemic-prone regions. Here we discuss the development of a system to forecast probabilities of anomalously high and low malaria incidence with dynamically based, seasonal-timescale, multi-model ensemble predictions of climate, using leading global coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models developed in Europe. This forecast system is successfully applied to the prediction of malaria risk in Botswana, where links between malaria and climate variability are well established, adding up to four months lead time over malaria warnings issued with observed precipitation and having a comparably high level of probabilistic prediction skill. In years in which the forecast probability distribution is different from that of climatology, malaria decision-makers can use this information for improved resource allocation.     

Travelling waves in the occurrence of dengue haemorrhagic fever in Thailand

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne virus that infects 50-100 million people each year. Of these infections, 200,000-500,000 occur as the severe, life-threatening form of the disease, dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF). Large, unanticipated epidemics of DHF often overwhelm health systems. An understanding of the spatial-temporal pattern of DHF incidence would aid the allocation of resources to combat these epidemics. Here we examine the spatial-temporal dynamics of DHF incidence in a data set describing 850,000 infections occurring in 72 provinces of Thailand during the period 1983 to 1997. We use the method of empirical mode decomposition to show the existence of a spatial-temporal travelling wave in the incidence of DHF. We observe this wave in a three-year periodic component of variance, which is thought to reflect host-pathogen population dynamics. The wave emanates from Bangkok, the largest city in Thailand, moving radially at a speed of 148 km per month. This finding provides an important starting point for detecting and characterizing the key processes that contribute to the spatial-temporal dynamics of DHF in Thailand.     

龙虎山猕猴（Macaca mulatta）麻疹病毒感染的探讨

采用ＨＩ（血凝抑制试验）法，比较在不同生境中，龙虎山猕猴麻疹病毒抗体阳性率的差异：小群关养组的阳性率为９０．９％；半野生猴组阳性率为２８．３％；野生猴组阳性率为２．４％。不同性别及不同年龄猴麻疹病毒抗体阳性率没有显著性差异（Ｐ＞０．０１）。半野生猴组阳性率逐年递增。对建立无麻疹、Ｂ病毒等病毒感染繁殖种群提出初步意见。     

龙虎山猕猴(Macaca mulatta)麻疹病毒感染的探讨

采用HI(血凝抑制试验)法,比较在不同生境中,龙虎山猕猴麻疹病毒抗体阳性率的差异:小群关养组的阳性率为90.9%;半野生猴组阳性率为28.3%;野生猴组阳性率为2.4%。不同性别及不同年龄猴麻疹病毒抗体阳性率没有显著性差异(P>0.01)。半野生猴组阳性率逐年递增。对建立无麻疹、B病毒等病毒感染繁殖种群提出初步意见。     

Genesis of a highly pathogenic and potentially pandemic H5N1 influenza virus in eastern Asia

A highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, H5N1, caused disease outbreaks in poultry in China and seven other east Asian countries between late 2003 and early 2004; the same virus was fatal to humans in Thailand and Vietnam. Here we demonstrate a series of genetic reassortment events traceable to the precursor of the H5N1 viruses that caused the initial human outbreak in Hong Kong in 1997 (refs 2-4) and subsequent avian outbreaks in 2001 and 2002 (refs 5, 6). These events gave rise to a dominant H5N1 genotype (Z) in chickens and ducks that was responsible for the regional outbreak in 2003-04. Our findings indicate that domestic ducks in southern China had a central role in the generation and maintenance of this virus, and that wild birds may have contributed to the increasingly wide spread of the virus in Asia. Our results suggest that H5N1 viruses with pandemic potential have become endemic in the region and are not easily eradicable. These developments pose a threat to public and veterinary health in the region and potentially the world, and suggest that long-term control measures are required.     

Prion disease: horizontal prion transmission in mule deer

Epidemics of contagious prion diseases can be perpetuated by horizontal (animal to animal) and maternal (dam to offspring, before or after birth) transmission, but the relative importance of each mechanism is unclear. Here we compare the incidence of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in captive mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) that is attributable to horizontal or maternal transmission. We find that horizontal transmission is remarkably efficient, producing a high incidence of disease (89%) in a cohort of deer in which maternal transmission was improbable. Our results indicate that horizontal transmission is likely to be important in sustaining CWD epidemics.     

2010—2011年宾川县麻疹IgM抗体检测结果分析

目的：通过IgM抗体检测结果,分析宾川县麻疹有效接种率状况,为预防和消除麻疹提供科学依据。方法：采用描述流行病学方法对宾川县2010-2011年麻疹IgM抗体检测资料进行统计分析。结果：宾川县2010-2011年共检测麻疹血液标本781人份,其中麻疹IgM抗体阳生率95.51%,7～10岁组阳性率最高达96.36%,0～1岁组阳性率最低为94.56%。结论：宾川县近年来麻疹疫苗免疫接种工作成效明显,人群麻疹IgM抗体处于一个较高水平,下一步要继续抓好麻疹基础免疫接种工作,注重接种质量和效果,消除人群免疫空白,提高人群麻疹抗体水平。     

Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change

The mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) is a native insect of the pine forests of western North America, and its populations periodically erupt into large-scale outbreaks. During outbreaks, the resulting widespread tree mortality reduces forest carbon uptake and increases future emissions from the decay of killed trees. The impacts of insects on forest carbon dynamics, however, are generally ignored in large-scale modelling analyses. The current outbreak in British Columbia, Canada, is an order of magnitude larger in area and severity than all previous recorded outbreaks. Here we estimate that the cumulative impact of the beetle outbreak in the affected region during 2000-2020 will be 270 megatonnes (Mt) carbon (or 36 g carbon m(-2) yr(-1) on average over 374,000 km2 of forest). This impact converted the forest from a small net carbon sink to a large net carbon source both during and immediately after the outbreak. In the worst year, the impacts resulting from the beetle outbreak in British Columbia were equivalent to approximately 75% of the average annual direct forest fire emissions from all of Canada during 1959-1999. The resulting reduction in net primary production was of similar magnitude to increases observed during the 1980s and 1990s as a result of global change. Climate change has contributed to the unprecedented extent and severity of this outbreak. Insect outbreaks such as this represent an important mechanism by which climate change may undermine the ability of northern forests to take up and store atmospheric carbon, and such impacts should be accounted for in large-scale modelling analyses.     

Dynamics of fat cell turnover in humans

Obesity is increasing in an epidemic manner in most countries and constitutes a public health problem by enhancing the risk for cardiovascular disease and metabolic disorders such as type 2 diabetes. Owing to the increase in obesity, life expectancy may start to decrease in developed countries for the first time in recent history. The factors determining fat mass in adult humans are not fully understood, but increased lipid storage in already developed fat cells (adipocytes) is thought to be most important. Here we show that adipocyte number is a major determinant for the fat mass in adults. However, the number of fat cells stays constant in adulthood in lean and obese individuals, even after marked weight loss, indicating that the number of adipocytes is set during childhood and adolescence. To establish the dynamics within the stable population of adipocytes in adults, we have measured adipocyte turnover by analysing the integration of 14C derived from nuclear bomb tests in genomic DNA. Approximately 10% of fat cells are renewed annually at all adult ages and levels of body mass index. Neither adipocyte death nor generation rate is altered in early onset obesity, suggesting a tight regulation of fat cell number in this condition during adulthood. The high turnover of adipocytes establishes a new therapeutic target for pharmacological intervention in obesity.     

复杂网络上具有分布式传染速率的流行病传播行为

提出一个改进的SI模型来研究分布式传染速率对复杂网络上的流行病传播的影响.与标准的SI模型不同,假定传播速率为几种典型的分布参数,如二值分布、均匀分布和指数分布.这种分布式的速率可以表示个体在传染性上的差异,这种差异可在很多真实的传染病中观察到.大量的数值仿真表明,这种分布式的传染速率能大大减小被感染结点的密度,减缓其动态传播过程,并且允许有更长的时间来采取相应的控制措施.因而,当前的研究结果对进一步理解网络上真实流行病的传播特性具有重要意义.