UK national population projections in perspective: how successful compared to those in other European countries?

Compared to population forecasts of other European countries, those made in the United Kingdom during the past 30 years had somewhat larger forecast errors for fertility and smaller errors for mortality. Migration forecasts in the UK were about as accurate as the European average. After controlling for various effects such as relative data volatility both at the time a projection is made and during the period of the projection, there is no indication that recent forecasts in European countries have been more accurate than older ones. Hence population forecasts are intrinsically uncertain, and a forecast for the UK in the form of probability distributions is presented.     

The UK population: how does it compare?

This is the fourth demographic report for the UK, providing an overview of the latest statistics on the population. This year's article compares the UK with other European countries and a range of nations from around the world. Statistical comparisons are made for fertility, mortality, ageing, migration and population density. The UK has an ageing population, but one that is not ageing as rapidly as some other countries such as Germany, Italy and Japan. Although life expectation in the UK is improving in line with most western European countries, relatively high levels of fertility ensure that the proportion of the population that is young remains high. Around one in ten residents of the UK are foreign born, a lower proportion than many developed countries. UK population density has increased steadily and is the fourth highest in the EU.     

Collaborative Regional Innovation Initiatives: A Booster for Local Company Innovation Processes?

It is widely acknowledged that the rate of innovations can be enhanced through interaction between new constellations of actors, crossing borderlines between different mindsets, knowledge and skill bases (e.g. Brown and Duguid, Org Sci 2(1):40–57, 1991; Cooke and Morgan, The associational economy: firms, regions, and innovation, 1998; Leonard-Barton, Wellsprings of knowledge: building and sustaining the sources of innovation, 1995, p. 64; Stamm, Managing innovation, design and creativity, 2008, p. 335). Studies of economic prosperity have also pointed to cooperation and competition between neighboring actors as a driver for competitiveness and innovativeness, be it for a company, a business area or a region (e.g. Piore and Sabel, The second industrial divide: possibilities for prosperity, 1984; Porter, The competitive advantage of nations, 1990). The hypothesis behind the geographical focus is that geographical proximity between actors promotes interaction and hence innovation. In EU, and also in Norway, this has been used actively as guidance in national and regional policy, where construction of innovation systems such as clusters and interorganizational networks are promoted and funded. To get organizations and institutions in a region to collaborate more is seen as the panacea for innovation, transformation and prosperity. However, companies often treat such constructed initiatives as an add-on to their ordinary, often long-lasting, business relationships between customers and suppliers (Håkansson et al., Business in networks, 2009, p. 13). This could imply that the necessary anchoring of such new innovation system initiatives with the companies’ own innovation processes is weak or missing. The terminology system points to the importance of the different elements (actors) in the system, their interrelatedness and their impact on each other (Meadows, Thinking in systems. A primer, 2009). An innovation system, like a network, cannot deliver innovation if the elements (i.e. the companies) of the systems don’t respond with related actions to the common endeavor. However, the different actors’ intraorganizational innovation processes are hardly mentioned in the innovation systems theories, thus lacking the important system feedback link between the intraorganizational innovation processes within the single company and the interorganizational innovation processes which are taking place in the collaborative initiative. In this article it is argued, supported by a case story, that attention to both of these processes and the nexus between them is needed in order to construct sustainable interorganizational innovation system initiatives. A model for this is proposed, based on a dual organization development process, encouraging system feedback loops and thereby bridging the single participating organization and the interorganizational collaborative initiative.     

Fifty years of United Kingdom national population projections: how accurate have they been?

This article considers the accuracy of the official national population projections made for the UK over the last fifty years The findings take account of the revision to population estimates following the 2001 Census and are largely similar to the findings of a previous review carried out after the 1991 Census. The total population has been projected reasonably accurately but this is largely a chance result of compensating errors in the assumptions of fertility, mortality and net migration. The largest differences between projected and actual populations are for the very young and the very old, while projections of the working age population have been comparatively accurate. Fertility and mortality errors have reduced in more recent projections, while migration errors have grown. However, this may simply reflect the volatility or stability of the respective time-series at the time the projections are made. Changes in estimates of the past and current size of the population (highlighted by the revisions made to population estimates following the 2001 Census) are also shown to play a part in explaining projection error.     

Action Research in Inter-Organisational Networks: Impartial Studies or the Trojan Horse?

This article addresses the distinct ethical challenges of action research in inter-organisational projects. Traditionally, the literature on action research has distinguished between two researcher roles: The problem-solver and the observer. Based on an action research project in a Danish inter-organisational network, a third role as legitimiser is identified as an ethical challenge. Potentially, the legitimacy that the researchers carry as academic knowledge-generating actors may be used by a particular company to involve other companies in the network. Thus, the researchers may be perceived as bringing into the other organisations a Trojan Horse containing the interests of this particular company. Lack of clarity in defining the role of the action researcher may thus jeopardise the trustworthiness of the researchers and the action research project. On the basis of the case study analysis, the article develops a number of preliminary points of ethical consideration for future research analysis.     

Who cares? Geographic variation in unpaid caregiving in England and Wales: evidence from the 2001 census

This article investigates the prevalence of unpaid caregiving by local authority district in England and Wales, using data from a new question on caregiving in the 2001 Census. We also examine geographic variation in the characteristics of unpaid care providers including health status, socio-economic status and ethnicity. Results show clear geographic variations in caregiving. The proportion of adults providing more than 20 hours of care per week ranged from less than 2 per cent to nearly 8 per cent. The highest proportions of caregivers were found in areas with higher than average levels of deprivation and long-term illness. Carers in such areas were themselves more likely to be in poor health. There are also clear variations in caregiving propensity by ethnic group.     

Foreign Trade Survey Data: Do They Help in Forecasting Exports and Imports?

Business survey, which starts from the microeconomic level, is a widely used short-term forecasting tool in practice. In this study, the authors examine whether foreign trade survey data collected by China’s Ministry of Commerce would provide reliable forecasts of China’s foreign trade.The research procedure is designed from three perspectives including forecast information test, turning point forecast, and out-of-sample value forecast. First, Granger causality test detects whether survey data l...     

Which is the use of systems theory in literature analysis?: The discovery of the place in La Mancha in Don Quixote

The use of systems theory to attempt to determine which ''place in La Mancha'' was the one whose name Cervantes could not quite recall in his universal novel, appears to be ordained to change certain attitudes towards science held in Cervantine literature. The reason: after four centuries of literary analysis, systemic methodology has proven able to identify the famous ''place'' with acceptable accuracy. Nonetheless, certain reasonable doubts persist around the suitability of a strictly scientific analysis of literature. In light of those doubts, the present article aims primarily to facilitate critique both of the systemic approach adopted and its outcome.     

Community Organizations in Venezuela: Toward the Disintegration of the Modern State and the Emergence of a Community Organized Society?

This paper argues that Venezuelan community organizations (COs) are playing a substantial role in the building of a new social order in which elements such as rights, equity, and justice are being displaced from a universal narrative toward more local narratives. This displacement is enwrapped in a discourse on the political participation of citizens in the running of public affairs, which implies a redefinition of the role of COs and the state beyond the usually accepted sphere of COs. The need to unfold the sense of COs thus becomes paramount for understanding our present and its current manifestations of an epochal change.     

A Note on Knowledge Creation in Open-Source Software Projects: What Can We Learn from Luhmann’s Theory of Social Systems?

We use the sociological systems theory proposed by Niklas Luhmann to complement a socially-oriented view of knowledge with the role of technical infrastructure in knowledge creation. We highlight the self-referential character of knowledge creation and draw upon illustrative examples from open-source software. We discuss why knowledge creation processes are often prone to breakdown and propose three conditions that may stabilize knowledge creation processes: perceptibility, systemic memory, and modularity.