超对策理论的改进及应用

超对策技术主要处理军事或经济贸易冲突中出现的信息失真, 态势误判情形下双方的决策分析选择, 这也是一种定量研究欺骗与反欺骗战术的方法。决策目标(目的)与决策分析选择实施过程有机结合是赵对策技术的一个尚不完善之处。本文提出“制约垒”概念来反映基于决策目标之下决策分析、选择、控制的动态过程, 最后以“海湾危机”全过程为实际背景, 用改进的超对策方法进行了分析。     

基于认知差异的恐怖主义袭击误对策分析

恐怖袭击事件中博弈双方高度不对称和存在认知差异,误对策方法提供了合适的分析框架.本文运用误对策分析方法剖析了恐怖袭击事件中政府反恐力量与恐怖分子的认知差异,并分析了不同情境下策略冲突的平衡结局.由于双方认知偏差可能导致不存在纯策略纳什均衡,而混合均衡进一步加大了策略的不确定性,安全策略采取"安全第一"的原则使决策者避免最大风险,相对于纳什均衡更合适作为存在认知差异的误对策问题的均衡分析方法.在实践操作角度上,恐怖袭击二阶误对策模型的平衡结局为恐怖分子发动的恐怖袭击行动将被挫败,因此提出提高反恐效能的政策建议,即发动社会民众提供反恐情报和预警线索,提高民众反恐意识.     

基于超对策偏好认知信息沟的均衡结局鲁棒性分析

建立了反映超对策结局偏好认知不确定性的信息沟模型,对超对策均衡结局进行了鲁棒性分析。对于给定的不确定参数,通过在初始偏好认知向量的基础上迭代定义一序列新的偏好向量集合,构建超对策偏好认知信息沟模型。基于信息沟模型,通过确定使初始偏好认知下的超对策均衡结局集保持不变的最大不确定参数来讨论超对策均衡结局的鲁棒性。最后,一个军事例子说明了分析方法的实用有效性。     

The Cost effectiveness and Risk Analysis of Dynamic Conflict Decision Making

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Hypergames and bayesian games: A theoretical comparison of the models of games with incomplete information

The present study discusses the relationships between two independently developed models of games with incomplete information,hypergames(Bennett,1977) and Bayesian games(Harsanyi, 1967).The authors first show that any hypergame can naturally be reformulated in terms of Bayesian games in an unified way.The transformation procedure is called Bayesian representation of hypergame. The authors then prove that some equilibrium concepts defined for hypergames are in a sense equivalent to those for Bayesian games.Furthermore,the authors discuss carefully based on the proposed analysis how each model should be used according to the analyzer’s purpose.     

Conflict measure model for large group decision based on interval intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy number and its application

The problem of measuring conflict in large-group decision making is examined with every decision preference expressed by multiple interval intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers （IITFNs）. First, a distance measurement between two IITFNs is given and a function of conflict between two members of the large group is proposed. Second, members of the large group are clustered. A measurement model of group conflict, which is applied to aggregating large-group preferences, is then proposed by employing the conflict measure of clusters. Finally, a simulation example is presented to validate the models. These models can deal with the preference analysis and coordination of a large-group decision, and are thus applicable to emergency group decision making.     

海湾战争中美军欺骗策略的定量分析

本文运用对策论的新分支——冲突分析为定量分析工具,就海湾战争中各阶段里美伊双方的攻防总体策略选择进行了初步的定量分析。特别是在后期美方为实现其作战目标而实施的一系列欺骗策略,在此用超对策进行了分析,所得结果与实际一致。     

COMPARISON OF THE ANALYTIC NETWORK PROCESS AND THE GRAPH MODEL FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION

1. Introduction A strategic conflict is a situation in which two or more decision-makers are to make a decision that affects issues they have different preferences about (Fang et al. 1993). Conflicts are one of the most characteristic attributes of human societies. Various forms of strategic conflict exist all around us, in areas such as environmental management, international rela-tions, economic competition, and relationships among individuals. Conflicts are studied in a wide range of disci…     

Dominating attitudes in the graph model for conflict resolution

A formal methodology for analyzing the importance of weighing a decision maker’s attitudes in a conflict is introduced and applied to the problem of negotiating a fair transfer of a brownfield property. A decision maker’s attitudes are expressed in his consideration of his own preferences,as well as those of his opponents.Dominating attitudes are used to suggest that in a circumstance in which a decision maker takes into account multiple perspectives due to his attitudes,he may favor one perspective more heavily.The analysis of a brownfield acquisition conflict illustrates the types of insights that this methodology reveals.     

动态冲突决策建模理论与方法及其在证券投资交易中的应用

试图建立一套用于动态冲突决策分析的理论与方法，给出了描述动态冲突决策分析、选择的几类基本概念，得到了冲突状态转移的基本途径以及冲突状态转移的定量描述与相关结论，同时获得在证券投资交易中的应用.     

Conflict analysis approaches for investigating attitudes and misperceptions in the War of 1812

Formal systems engineering approaches to modeling misperceptions and attitudes are employed within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution to systematically study the War of 1812 between the United States of America and Great Britain in order to provide enhanced insights into the causes of the war. More specifically, relational definitions for preferences, movements and stability concepts are defined for describing the attitudes and associated behavior of decision makers involved in a conflict. To capture misperceptions of decision makers in the War of 1812, attitudes are studied within the structure of a hypergame. Combining attitudes and misperceptions within the paradigm of the graph model furnishes the flexible analytical tool which demonstrates that misunderstanding of attitudes by Great Britain and the United States may have contributed to the outbreak of this nasty war.     

A hierarchical multiple criteria model for eliciting relative preferences in conflict situations

A multiple criteria decision analysis(MCDA) approach is designed for capturing the relative preference information of a decision maker involved in a conflict.More specifically,an MCDA approach based on the outranking method,ELECTRE III,is employed for ranking states or possible scenarios in the conflict from most to least preferred,where ties are allowed,for a decision maker according to his or her value system.To demonstrate how this preference elicitation methodology can be conveniently implemented in practice within the framework of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution,it is applied to a real world water supply crisis which occurred in the town of North Battleford,located in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan.     

Robustness of equilibria in the graph model for conflict resolution

A novel approach for assessing the robustness of an equilibrium in conflict resolution is presented.Roughly,an equilibrium is robust if it is resilient,or resistant to deviation.Robustness assessment is based on a new concept called Level of Freedom,which evaluates the relative freedom of a decision maker to escape an equilibrium.Resolutions of a conflict can be affected by changes in decision makers' preferences,which may destabilize an equilibrium,causing the conflict to evolve.Hence,a conflict may become long-term and thereby continue to evolve,even after reaching an equilibrium.The new robustness measure is used to rank equilibria based on robustness,to facilitate distinguishing equilibria that are relatively sustainable.An absolutely robust equilibrium is a special case in which the level of freedom is at an absolute minimum for each individual stability definition.     

A Method of Problem Situation Decomposing to Support Goal Finding

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Practicing What We Teach in Teaching Systems Practice: The Action–Learning Cycle

Respect for autonomy is a powerful tool for managing complexity. It lets natural, mutually supportive order emerge. In Western culture, though, much order is imposed. This causes conflict, which only increases complexity. This conflictual pattern has an antidote in systems practice: the systemic action–learning cycle. When used reflectively at the level of second-order cybernetics, this cycle embodies respect for autonomy. The UK Open University course "T306: Managing Complexity—A Systems Approach" teaches this action–learning cycle, and uses the cycle in its own teaching. In particular, it uses the cycle in its online conferences, to invite participation and dissolve conflict. This paper shows how.     

信息不完备冲突分析的研究方法及应用

研究信息不完备冲突的建模及分析方法,并结合美─伊海湾危机讨论信息不完备冲突分析方法的具体应用及其优越性。     

基于冲突域渐减的属性约简算法

针对因决策表中存在不一致对象造成的约简求解错误,同时为了进一步提高约简算法求解效率, 首先,给出简化决策表的定义,并证明了简化决策表的核属性和属性约简与原始决策表的核属性和属性约简是等价的. 然后,提出冲突域的概念,分析冲突域的性质,以冲突域中冲突对象个数的变化为度量依据, 研究核属性和属性重要性的性质,同时设计相应的核属性和属性重要性求解算法;在此基础上, 设计基于冲突域渐减式属性约简算法,算法的时间和空间复杂度分别为O(|C|²|U/C|)和O(|U|). 最后的实例和实验结果表明该方法是正确的,高效的.     

Dynamic Conflict Analysis Decision Modelling Theory and its Application

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模糊多目标主从冲突决策模型

应用模糊测试理论和模糊规划理论 ,针对决策约束条件的不确定性和目标的不确定性 ,研究了不确定性 Stackeberg冲突决策的数学模型 ,探讨了模糊平衡解与 Mash平衡解 (或 Nash平衡结局 )的关系 ,给出了解的一致性分析。经过模拟分析验证了模型与方法的可行性 ,为综合效能风险决策提供了实用而有效的决策方法     

Fuzzy preferences in conflicts

A systematic fuzzy approach is developed to model fuzziness and uncertainties in the preferences of decision makers involved in a conflict. This unique fuzzy preference formulation is used within the paradigm of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution in which a given dispute is modeled in terms of decision makers, each decision maker＇s courses of actions or options, and each decision maker＇s preferences concerning the states or outcomes which could take place. In order to be able to determine the stability of each state for each decision maker and the possible equilibria or resolutions, a range of solution concepts describing potential human behavior under conflict are defined for use with fuzzy preferences. More specifically, strong and weak definitions of stability are provided for the solution concepts called Nash, general metarational, symmetric metarational, and sequential stability. To illustrate how these solution concepts can be conveniently used in practice, they are applied to a dispute over the contamination of an aquifer by a chemical company located in Elmira, Ontario, Canada.