Decadal variation of different durations of continuous Meiyu precipitation and the possible cause

The features of the decadal evolution of different durations of continuous Meiyu precipitation and their possible cause from the viewpoint of the low-level intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) are examined in this study. It is found that the total frequency of Meiyu precipitation events of certain duration gradually decreases as the duration of the events increases,and the main center of the events moves from the northern Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley(YHRV) to the southern YHRV. The linear trends of different durations of continuous Meiyu precipitation indicate that longer-duration precipitation has become significantly less frequent since 2000,while 2-day and 3-4-day continuous precipitation processes have become more frequent. At the same time,a close relationship between the variation in the low-level ISO and the decadal evolution of frequency of longer-duration Meiyu precipitation is detected. Clearly,since 2000,the low-level ISO has significantly decreased,and a single peak of longer-duration events has been replaced by several peaks of shorter-duration events,which has resulted in a significant decrease in the frequency of longer-duration precipitation. Meanwhile,low-level baroclinicity increased(decreased) during each period,which is in accordance with the increasing(decreasing) frequency of longer-duration precipitation. It is confirmed that longer-duration precipitation has significantly decreased in recent years.     

Simulation of 1991–2005 Meiyu seasons in the Yangtze-Huaihe region using BCC_RegCM 1.0

By using BCC_RegCM 1.0 (RegCM for short) from Beijing Climate Center (BCC), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the Meiyu season characters over the Yangtze-Huaihe region during 1991-2005 are simulated. The major conclusions of this study may be summarized as the following: (1) RegCM can reproduce the interannual variation and the spatial distribution of the summertime precipitation and temperature in the Yangtze-Huaihe region. (2) By use of a generalized Meiyu criterion and in accordance with model-...     

江淮流域梅雨期雨量的变化特征及其与太平洋海温的相关关系及年代际差异

运用相关分析和滑动相关方法,分析了江淮流域5个代表站1903-2000年梅雨期雨量的变化特征及其与太平洋海温的相关关系及年代际差异.结果表明,江淮地区梅雨期雨量在近百年来存在明显的年际和年代际变化特征.通过分析梅雨期雨量与太平洋海温的年代际相关特征发现,江淮流域梅雨期雨量与前期及同期太平洋海温关系密切,前一年冬季及梅雨期东北太平洋海温与江淮流域梅雨期雨量负相关,在热带东太平洋的Nino1 2区两者正相关显著,同年春季西太平洋部分海域海温与江淮流域梅雨期雨量正相关.从年际相关分析发现,前一年冬季太平洋海温与梅雨期雨量正相关,同年春季以及梅雨期两者相关不明显.通过分析年代际差异发现,江淮流域梅雨期雨量与前期及同期热带太平洋关键区海温的21a滑动相关存在显著的年代际差异,这种差异与海温的21a滑动平均的年代际冷暖背景关系密切,热带太平洋海温关键区前一年冬季冷海温背景下,梅雨期雨量同海温正相关显著,同年春季暖海温背景下,两者之间负相关显著,而江淮流域梅雨期雨量同中国近海海温之间(从冬季到梅雨期)维持显著的正相关,与该区海温冷暖背景的关系则并不明显.     

快速城市化对上海代表站降水的影响

通过比较上海城区代表站洋泾和乡村代表站夏字圩1979—2014年日降水记录,对各降水要素进行对比分析,辨识2000年前后2个站降水阶段性变化规律及其差异,揭示城市化对局地降水的影响特征。结果发现:2000年之后上海城市化进程明显加速,且2000年前后洋泾和夏字圩2个站的降水关系发生了系统变异,降水差异明显扩大。由于洋泾和夏字圩均位于太湖东部平原地区,且台风性降水的阶段变化特征基本一致,因此剥离区域降水变异的影响后,将1979—2014年洋泾站降水表现出异于夏字圩站的阶段性特征主要归因于城市化局地增雨效应,且2000年以来上海快速城市化总体上对城区代表站的降水产生了显著的强化作用,增加了强降水事件发生的概率。     

气候变化与气象灾害

回顾了国际上气候变暖背景下极端天气和气候事件研究的基本成果，重点讨论了我国旱灾、暴雨洪灾，高温热浪、霜冻、低温冷害和沙尘暴等气象灾害的变化特点。指出：在过去50多年气候明显变暖的背景下，华南，西北东部和东北东部随着降水量的减少，降水日数也显著减少，干旱化倾向十分明显；长江流域的强降水过程明显趋于增多，发生洪涝灾害的频率也趋于增加。气候变暖最显著的影响之一是无霜期显著增加。虽然在过去50多年中我国沙尘暴发生频率和范围总体趋于减少，但由于持续干旱的影响，使得1998年以来又出现沙尘暴增加的势头。     

Diurnal variations of summer precipitation in Beijing

Climatic characteristics and secular trends of diurnal variations of summer precipitation in Beijing are studied using hourly self-recording rain-gauge data during 1961-2004. The results show that both rainfall amount and rainfall frequency present high values from late afternoon to early morning and reach the minima around noon. Two separate peaks can be identified in the high value period, one in the late afternoon and the other in the early morning. Taking the rainfall duration into account, it is found that the rainfall during late afternoon to midnight mainly comes from the short-duration rainfall events （an event of 1-6 hours in duration）, while the rainfall during midnight to early morning is accumulated mostly by the long-duration rainfall events （an event that lasts longer than 6 hours）. In the recent 40 years, the summer precipitation in Beijing has been considerably restructured. The total rainfall amount of short-duration events has increased significantly, while the total rainfall amount of Iong-duration events has decreased.     

Meiyu in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River since 1736

＂Yu Xue Fen Cun＂ records during the Qing Dynasty are used to identify the starting and ending dates of Meiyu at the period of 1736-1911. These results, along with the instrumental meteorological records, are used to reconstruct the series of length and precipitation of Meiyu during 1736-2000 over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The characteristics of Meiyu are analyzed since 1736. Moreover, the strength of East Asian Summer Monsoon and locations of rainband are discussed, based on the relationship between the length of Meiyu and the Index of East Asian Summer Monsoon. It is found that the starting and ending dates and the length of Meiyu have significant interannual and interdecadal variations. Apart from 7-8 years, 20-30 years and 40 years cycles for the lengths of Meiyu, the centennial oscillation is also presented. The length of Meiyu, monsoon rainband movement over eastern China, and the strength of East Asian Summer Monsoon （EASM） have a very good correlation, which can be expressed in the following： during the periods of 1736-1770, 1821-1870 and 1921-1970, the EASM was stronger, and the monsoon rainband was located in North China and South China easily, corresponding to the decreased length of Meiyu. Whereas during the periods of 1771-1820, 1871-1920 and 1971-2000, the EASM was weaker and monsoon rainband usually stopped at the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, corresponding to the increased length of Meiyu.     

Decadal northward shift of the Meiyu belt and the possible cause

The feature of the decadal movement of the Meiyu belt and their association with East Asia atmospheric circulation for the period of 1979―2007 is examined in this study. It is shown that the Meiyu belt of China has a decadal shift in the late 1990s. There is a remarkable difference between the periods before and after 1999, with the Meiyu belt mainly located to the south of the Yangtze River valley before 1999, but afterward mainly located in the Huaihe River valley. At the same time, a distinctive tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling trend is found in the mid-latitudes of East Asia, which causes the upper tropospheric pressure surfaces upward bulging and the tropoause elevated in the subtropics and associated widening of the subtropical area over East Asia. Accompanying the subtropics widening, the subtropical westerly jet over East Asia shifts northward and the East Asia tropical Hadley circulation expands poleward, which results in the northward shift of the Meiyu belt.     

Interannual variability of the Meiyu onset over Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley and analyses of its previous strong influence signal

Meiyu onset (MO) over Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley (YHRV) possesses obvious characteristics of interannual variations. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets, NOAA OLR and ERSST data, the in-terannual variability of MO(IVMO) and its previous strong influence signal (PSIS) are investigated. The possible mechanisms that the PSIS affecting IVMO are also discussed. The results show that the pre-vious CP-ENSO (Central Pacific El Nio/Southern Oscillation) event is the PSIS affecting IVMO and it has a better accu...     

Numerical simulation of Meiyu front and the diagnosis of moist vorticity vector

Moist vorticity vector is introduced to study the development and evolution of mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) in the Meiyu front precipitation with the Advanced Regional Predication System (ARPS). In this study, the heavy rainfall is simulated to investigate the genesis, development and dissipation of middle scale convective vortex, which occurred from 0000 UTC 3 July to 1200 UTC 5 July over the Jianghuai River valley. Moist vorticity vector (MVV) has zonal, radial and vertical components in its 3D spatial distribution. The simulation shows that the vertical component of moist vorticity vector well demonstrates the spatial distribution characteristics of middle scale convective vortex, especially in the process of Meiyu front precipitation. Diagnosis upon zonal, radial averaged and mass-integrated quantities of MVV shows that its vertical component and the surface precipitating ratio are in phase with a correlation coefficient of 0.68, indicating that the vertical component of MVV is closely associated with the Meiyu front precipitation. In addition, the tendency of the vertical component of MVV is mainly determined by the interaction between the vorticity and the zonal and radial gradient of condensational or depositional heating.     

Numerical simulation of Meiyu front and the diagnosis of moist vorticity vector

Moist vorticity vector is introduced to study the development and evolution of mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) in the Meiyu front precipitation with the Advanced Regional Predication System (ARPS). In this study, the heavy rainfall is simulated to investigate the genesis, development and dissipation of middle scale convective vortex, which occurred from 0000 UTC 3 July to 1200 UTC 5 July over the Jianghuai River valley. Moist vorticity vector (MVV) has zonal, radial and vertical components in its 3D spatial distribution. The simulation shows that the vertical component of moist vorticity vector well demonstrates the spatial distribution characteristics of middle scale convective vortex, especially in the process of Meiyu front precipitation. Diagnosis upon zonal, radial averaged and mass-integrated quantities of MVV shows that its vertical component and the surface precipitating ratio are in phase with a correlation coefficient of 0.68, indicating that the vertical component of MVV is closely associated with the Meiyu front precipitation. In addition, the tendency of the vertical component of MVV is mainly determined by the interaction between the vorticity and the zonal and radial gradient of condensational or depositional heating.     

云南近50年极端气温及降水事件变化特征与区域气候变暖的关系

利用19612008年云南125个观测站的逐日观测资料,采用百分位值法定义了云南极端气温、降水事件阈值,分析了极端条件下的高温、低温和强降水的分布特征、气候变化趋势及其与区域气候变暖的关系.结果表明,云南极端高温阈值大于36℃的中心分别在低海拔的金沙江河谷、红河河谷及昭通和西双版纳的部分河谷地区.全省大部分地区极端高温频数具有明显的年代际变化特征.极端低温阈值小于-10℃的低值中心则集中位于迪庆州北部.大部分地区极端低温频数呈明显减少趋势.极端强降水阈值超过40mm的大值中心有3个,分别位于玉溪南部红河南部、普洱南部和曲靖南部.年平均气温与极端高温频数为正相关关系,与极端低温频数为显著的负相关关系,与极端强降水频数的相关关系不明显.     

Spatiotemporal distribution and decadal change of the monthly temperature predictability limit in China

Based on the nonlinear Lyapunov exponent and nonlinear error growth dynamics, the spatiotemporal distribution and decadal change of the monthly temperature predictability limit （MTPL） in China is quantitatively analyzed. Data used are daily temperature of 518 stations from 1960 to 2011 in China. The results are summarized as follows： （1） The spatial distribution of MTPL varies regionally. MTPL is higher in most areas of Northeast China, southwest Yunnan Province, and the eastern part of Northwest China. MTPL is lower in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Huang-huai Basin. （2） The spatial distribution of MTPL varies distinctly with seasons. MTPL is higher in boreal summer than in boreal winter. （3） MTPL has had distinct decadal changes in China, with increase since the 1970s and decrease since 2000. Especially in the northeast part of the country, MTPL has significantly increased since 1986. Decadal change of MTPL in Northwest China, Northeast China and the Huang-huai Basin may have a close relationship with the persistence of temperature anomaly. Since the beginning of the 21st century, MTPL has decreased slowly in most of the country, except for the south. The research provides a scientific foundation to understand the mechanism of monthly temperature anomalies and an important reference for improvement of monthly temperature prediction.     

Changes in precipitation and extreme precipitation in a warming environment in China

This study analyses the decadal changes in winter precipitation and extreme precipitation in a warming environment in China. The results show that, together with a trend of winter warming in China, winter precipitation and extreme precipitation in the region are also increasing. In addition, concurrent with the decadal warming shift that occurred in the mid-1980s, precipitation and extreme precipitation both increased significantly. Quantitative analysis shows that precipitation and extreme precipitation increased at rates of 9.7% and 22.6% per 1℃ of surface warming in China. This rate of precipitation increase is greater than the global mean, which indicates that precipitation in China is highly sensitive to climate warming and further highlights the importance of studying regional responses to climate warming. The fact that extreme precipitation is increasing at a higher rate than precipitation implies that winter precipitation in China will increasingly be of more extreme type in the context of global warming, which could partly explain why there have recently been a number of record-breaking extreme snowfall events in China.     

老哈河流域水文要素变化研究

对老哈河流域近50a的水文要素进行了年际变化、年代际变化和线性变化趋势的研究,结果表明:(a)年降雨量的年际变化幅度最均匀、离散度最小,而年径流深和年径流系数的年际变化不均匀、离散度大.降雨量是影响径流的主要因素,但并不是唯一因素,在某些年份径流还受到其他因素的强烈干扰.另外,年径流深不仅受年降雨总量的影响,也受降雨的年内时空分布的影响.(b)从20世纪60年代到21世纪初,各要素的年代际变化不一致:年降雨量变化为少-多-少-多-少,年径流深和年径流系数变化为多-少-少-多-少.年降雨量年代际距平变化最小,变化幅度较平缓,而年径流深和年径流系数的年代际变化都比年降雨量的年代际变化大得多.(c)降雨量没有明显的增减变化,而径流却具有显著的减少趋势,其中年径流深通过了95%的置信度检验,年径流系数通过了99%的置信度检验.分析结果表明,径流的变化除了受降雨量的影响之外,还可能受气温变化和人类活动等其他因素的影响.     

基于自组织映射的梅雨期西太副高分型及降水特征研究

为了研究梅雨期西太副高的变化特征及其对梅雨降水的影响,本文利用1951-2016年西太副高监测指数,采用自组织映射（self-organizing map,SOM）方法对梅雨期西太副高进行聚类分析,得到9种SOM分型,并利用中国1km分辨率逐月降水量数据集和中国雨季历年信息表进行不同西太副高分型下梅雨降水的特征分析。结果表明,9种梅雨期西太副高分型对应着多种不同的梅雨降水特征：纬向上,当西太副高偏东时,梅雨区降水强度偏低,反之则强度偏高。经向上,在西太副高主体位于我国陆地的前提下,脊线指数高于25°N时,梅雨区大部被副热带高压控制,整体降水偏少且有小幅度南少北多态势;脊线指数偏低时,副高控制梅雨区南部边缘或更南地区,水汽输送导致降水整体偏多。本文得到了不同类型副高与梅雨降水特征的对应关系,也说明SOM方法能较好地对副热带高压等气象要素做出客观分型,并进行气候现象的相关性研究。     

谈ISO 9000系列标准的发展

国际标准化组织自1986年颁布第一个ISO9000标准以来，在不到20年的时间里对标准进行多次修订。叙述了ISO9000系列标准的发展历程，对2000版ISO9001标准的特点和未来演变趋势进行了分析，以利于广大质量管理人员对ISO9000标准的理解。     

基于非平稳的淮河流域干旱时空演变特征研究

基于非平稳性标准化降水蒸散指数（non-stationary standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index，NSPEI）表征气象干旱程度，运用游程和Copula理论识别气象干旱特征演变规律，分析淮河流域干旱持续时间与烈度及干旱时间与强度的联合频率特征，并初步揭示干旱对植被覆盖度的影响．研究结果表明:1）淮河流域中部NSPEI较低，区域内68%的站点NSPEI呈上升趋势，淮河沿岸及其以南地区干旱程度增强；2）长历时、高强度的干旱事件主要集中在南部大别山区与蚌埠附近，高烈度干旱事件集中分布在中北部定陶附近，干旱事件历时集中在0.5~1.5个月，烈度基本<3，强度大多为10~30；3）干旱事件历时与烈度联合重现期低值（1.6 a）集中出现在信阳、蚌埠、菏泽附近地区，历时与强度联合重现期低值（1.7 a）同样集中出现在信阳、蚌埠站附近；4）1990—2015年淮河流域耕地面积减少2.01%，建设用地增加2.07%，土地利用类型变化集中在区域北部，区域内NDVI变化趋势通过95%显著性检验的面积仅占0.89%，植被覆盖度变化趋势不明显，干旱对其影响小．      

1951—2014年淮河流域典型等值线变化特征

利用1951—2014年淮河流域29个站点月平均气温和月降水量数据,运用线性倾向估计、累积距平、Mann-Kendall检验及空间分析等方法,分析了1月均温和年降水量的时空变化特征.结果表明:过去64 a,1月均温呈显著升高趋势,升高速率为0.3℃/10a,1986年以后升温趋势显著,并于1973年发生升温突变;年代际方面,20世纪50年代均温最低,20世纪90年代均温最高.年降水量呈不显著减少趋势,减少速率为5.9 mm/10a;年代际降水量波动幅度不大,其中21世纪00年代平均降水量最高,21世纪10年代平均降水量最少.相较于淮河流域年均温变化,1月均温发生暖化突变时间早于年均温,说明1月均温在响应全球变暖方面更加敏感.过去64 a,1月0℃等温线和800 mm等降水量线与秦岭—淮河一线不重合,其主要原因是全球变暖导致的自然带显著北移.     

Landscape evolution and palaeoclimate in the deserts of northwestern China, with a special reference to Badain Jaran and Taklamakan

A comparative study of geomorphologic landscapes in the Badain Jaran Desert and Taklamakan Desert was made on the basis of field investigations, thermolumi-niscence and radiocarbon dating as well as analysis of sand grain texture. The sand seas of the Badain Jaran Desert differ greatly from that of the Taklamakan Desert in terms of dune morphology, interdune relief, dune stratigraphy and sand sources. The thermoluminiscence ages of the dunes suggest that the basic configuration of the megadunes in the Badain Jaran Desert has not changed at least since Middle Holocene. There were periods of more humid environment during the last glaciation and Holocene in both deserts, but events of higher precipitation in the Badain Jaran Desert were more frequent than in the Taklamakan. In both desert areas, aeolian processes have been intensified during the last 2000 a.