High－resolution precipitation variations in the Northeast Tibetan Plateau over the last 800 years documented by sediment cores of Qinghai Lake

Short cores of about 80-cm retrieved from three main basins of th e deepwater areas in Qinghai Lake,the largest inland enclosed lake in China, were studied. Sta-ble isotopes of authigenlc carbonates, grain-size, carbonate and organic matter content at 5-year resolution are used to reconstruct the climatic history over the last 800 years in the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Chronology was established according to 210^pb dating and 137^Cs methods and the core corrdation. It is found that cores from different deep basins of the lake can be well correlated. The sedimentary rate is highest in the western basin of the lake and lowest in the east.In the southern basin of the lake where the short core Qing-6is located, the recent average sedimentation rate is 0.1004cm/yr. Variations in effective precipitation recorded by the oxygen isotopes and grain size data durine the last 800 years are consistent with the glacial accumulation record form the Dunde and Guliya ice cores. A dry climate lasted for 300 years from 1200 AD to 1500 AD, followed by a wet period from 1500 to 1560 AD. The two dry periods, 1560 to 1650 AD and 1780 to 1850 AD, were the results of southwest monsoon weakening. The effective precipitation generally increased since 1650 AD due to the strengthening of the Asian South-west Monsoon, resulting in a wet period until the 1950s. Ex-cept the early stage, the Little Ice Age on the Plateau is characterized b y increased effective moisture. Organic mat-ter content, with nearly 200-year cycles, shows similar trend with the atmospheric delta earbon-14 before the 1850s, indi-eating that the bioproductivity responds to solar activity.     

Temperature variations on the Tibetan Plateau over the last two millennia

The paleoclimate data recovered from ice cores,tree rings and lake sediments indicate regional features of cfimatic change on the Tibeta n Plateau (TP) during the last 2000 years. The composite temperature reconstructions in-dicate that several main climatic episodes, such as the “LittleIce Age“ between 1400 and 1900, the “Medieval Warm Pe-riod“ in 1150-1400, a less warm period in 800-1100, and an earlier cold period between the 3rd and 5th centuries,occurred in the TP. In addition, temperature varied from region to region. The period from AD 800 to 1100, which waswarm in northeastern TP, was contemporaneous with cool-ing in the western and southern TP. The southern TP ex-perienced warming between 1150 and 1400. For western TP,the δ^18O records of the Guliya ice core indicate that the pe-Hod 1250-1500 witnessed a clear warming. Large-scaletrends in the temperature history from northeastern TP aremore similar to those in eastern China than are the trendsfrom the Guliya ice cap far to the west and southern TP. The most prominent similarities between the temperature varia-tions of the TP and eastern China are such cold phases as 1100-1150, 1500-1550, 1650-1700 and 1800-1850, andthe latter three cold events match with three widespreadg lacial advances which occurred on the TP during the Little Ice A2e.     

Reconstructing temperature change in Central East China during 601–920 AD

Using historical records on first and last frost and snow, spring cultivation, David peach blossom, autumn crop harvest, grade of sea freeze and change in northern citrus boundary, we reconstructed temperature change during 601–920 AD. The mean temperature of the winter half-year (October to April) over Central East China during this period was about −0.22°C higher than that of the present (1961–2000 AD mean). During 601–820 AD, mean temperature was about −0.52°C higher than the present. During 821–920 AD, the mean temperature was 0.42°C lower than the present. The temperature fluctuations were characterized by a maximum amplitude of 1.05°C at the centennial scale, 1.38°C at the 50–year scale, 2.02°C at the 30-year scale, and 2.3°C at the 20-year scale. There were four peaks warmer than today (601–620 AD, mean of 1°C higher temperature; 641–660 AD, 1.44°C; 701–720 AD, 0.88°C; 781–800 AD, 0.65°C). Three cold periods were in 741–760, 821–840, and 881–900 AD, the mean temperature of which was 0.37–0.87°C lower than the present.     

东海内陆架泥质沉积Rb和Sr的地球化学及其古气候意义

通过对位于东海内陆架闽浙沿岸泥质沉积区北部的DD2孔进行AMS14C年龄测试和Rb,Sr含量测定,获得了近2ka的Rb/Sr比值(RRb/Sr)变化的高分辨率曲线。该曲线揭示出10次RRb/Sr低值时期,它们与历史时期中国温度下降有很好的对应关系,并印证了约990AD的降温事件。根据RRb/Sr的变化,基本认同竺可桢所界定的隋唐温暖期,并认为气候存在温暖-寒冷-温暖的波动,且其中的相对寒冷期为800-890AD。研究认为小冰期时间段为1480-1890AD,且由3个寒冷阶段构成,小冰期的最冷峰为约1520AD,1670AD,1780AD和1850AD。     

CMIP6多模式在青藏高原的适应性评估及未来气候变化预估

随着CMIP6（coupled model intercomparison project phase 6）计划进行,新一代大气环流模式（general circulation model, GCM）输出结果陆续发布,及时探究在新模式新情景下青藏高原未来降水及气温的变化规律至关重要．在对CMIP6多模式进行适应性评估的基础上,运用DM（direct method）统计降尺度方法,以1979—2014年为基准期,预估青藏高原未来近期（2031—2050年）、远期（2061—2080年）在共享社会经济路径与典型浓度路径组合情景（shared socioeconomic pathways and the representative concentration pathways, SSP)包括低强迫情景(SSP126)、中等强迫情景（SSP245）、中等至高强迫情景（SSP370）、高强迫情景（SSP585）下的降水、平均气温、最低气温、最高气温的时空演变规律．结果表明:相较于基准期,不同GCM对青藏高原未来降水的预估总体呈现增加趋势,近期降水较基准期变幅为?3%~16%,远期变幅为?1%~21%．未来平均气温、最低气温和最高气温均呈现一致的增温趋势,且增幅较为一致．相较于基准期,近期气温变化范围为0.9~2.3 ℃,远期气温变化范围为1.01~4.6 ℃．随着排放强度的增加,三者升温趋势愈加显著,即升温趋势由强至弱排序为SSP585、SSP370、SSP245、SSP126．此外,青藏高原气温变化在海拔高度上具有显著的依赖性,整体表现为青藏高原北部高海拔地区增温高于青藏高原东南部低海拔地区．研究结果可为揭示气候变化对高寒区水循环的影响机制提供科学依据．      

Groundwater recharge and climatic change during the last 1000 years from unsaturated zone of SE Badain Jaran Desert

The history of groundwater recharge and cli-matic changes during the last 1000 years has been estimated and reconstructed using environmental chloride from un-saturated zone profde in the southeast Badain Jaran Desert,NW China. By using a steady-state model for duplicate un-saturated zone chloride profiles, the long-term recharge at the site was estimated to be 1.3 mm yr^-1. From one profde,which reached the water table, the climatic change events of 10-20 years duration were well preserved. There were 3 wet phases and 4 dry episodes during the recent 800 years ac-cording to the peaks and troughs of recharge rate calculated via chloride concentration and moisture content. There was a dry episode before 1290 AD. At ca. 1500-1530 AD, which is an important date, there was an abrupt change from drought to wet conditions. At the beginning of the 1800s, local climate changed from wet to dry occurred and subsequently dete-riorated over the past 200 years,The unsaturated profile was compared with the Guliya ice core records.The agreement of wet and dry phases from 1200 to 1900 AD is quite good,whilst trends diverged during the last 100 years.It seems that the large-scale climate difference took place between mountain regions and the desert basin in NW China during the 20th century,which closely correspond to the water table reduction of some l metre.     

Effect of decarburization annealing temperature and time on the carbon content,microstructure, and texture of grain-oriented pure iron

In this study, the effect of decarburization annealing temperature and time on the carbon content, microstructure, and texture of grain-oriented pure iron was investigated by optical microscopy and scanning electron microscopy with electron-backscatter diffraction. The results showed that the efficiency of decarburization dramatically increased with increasing decarburization temperature. However, when the annealing temperature was increased to 825℃ and 850℃, the steel's carbon content remained essentially unchanged at 0.002%. With increasing decarburization time, the steel's carbon content generally decreased. When both the decarburization temperature and time were increased further, the average grain size dramatically increased and the number of fine grains decreased; meanwhile, some relatively larger grains developed. The main texture types of the decarburized sheets were approximately the same:{001}<110> and {112~115}<110>, with a γ-fiber texture. Furthermore, little change was observed in the texture. Compared with the experimental sheets, the texture of the cold-rolled sheet was very scattered. The best average magnetic induction (B₈₀₀) among the final products was 1.946 T.     

Climate as the dominant control on C<Subscript>3</Subscript> and C<Subscript>4</Subscript> plant abundance in the Loess Plateau: Organic carbon isotope evidence from the last glacial-interglacial loess-soil sequences

Two modes of photosynthesis predominate in terres-REPORTS trial plants: the C3 and C4 modes[1]. The C3 mode is used by all of trees, bushes, and cold season grasses. The C4 mode is used by the most of tropical and warm season grasses. They are disadvantaged relative to C3 plants at high CO2/O2 ratios because of the additional energy ex-pense needed to concentrate CO2 in the bundle-sheath cells. At low CO2/O2, however, C4 plants can achieve a relatively high quantum yield by suppressin…     

Climate change over southern Qinghai Plateau in the past 500 years recorded in Sabina tibetica tree rings

Two tree ring-width chronologies of Sabina tibetica were developed based on cores sampled in Qumalal and Zhiduo, southern Qinghai Plateau. The response function analysis showed that the chronologies were sensitive to temperature and precipitation from April to June in the plateau. Moisture index (MI) was defined, reconstructed and extended back to AD 1550. The cross-validation method was used to check the stability of the calibration equation, and the result indicated that the equation was stable. Six severe dry periods were found in this region in the past 453-year reconstruction, which were 1592 to 1610, 1649 to 1665, 1687 to 1697, 1740 to 1750, 1818 to 1829 and 1918 to 1933. Five severe wetting periods were 1669 to 1682, 1700 to 1709, 1800 to 1814, 1898 to 1909 and 1935 to 1950. Spectrum analysis indicated that there existed long-term cycles of 60.4 and 53.4 a, solar cycle of 11 a and short-term cycles of 8, 6 and 4 a in the reconstructed series.     

Climate change over southern Qinghai Plateau in the past 500 years recorded in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Sabina tibetica</Emphasis> tree rings

Two tree ring-width chronologies of Sabina tibetica were developed based on cores sampled in Qumalai and Zhiduo, southern Qinghai Plateau. The response function analysis showed that the chronologies were sensitive to temperature and precipitation from April to June in the plateau. Moisture index (MI) was defined, reconstructed and extended back to AD 1550. The cross-validation method was used to check the stability of the calibration equation, and the result indicated that the equation was stable. Six severe dry periods were found in this region in the past 453-year reconstruction, which were 1592 to 1610, 1649 to 1665, 1687 to 1697, 1740 to 1750, 1818 to 1829 and 1918 to 1933. Five severe wetting periods were 1669 to 1682, 1700 to 1709, 1800 to 1814, 1898 to 1909 and 1935 to 1950. Spectrum analysis indicated that there existed long-term cycles of 60.4 and 53.4 a, solar cycle of 11 a and short-term cycles of 8, 6 and 4 a in the reconstructed series.     

土壤水分运移温度效应的数值研究

分析了土壤水分运移温度效应的机理,基于“表面张力-粘滞流理论”对“六场-相变-扩散模型”中的土水势、非饱和水力传导系数和水分扩散系数三个参数进行了改进,即考虑了它们的温度效应,继而通过对0.2 m×0.2 m的二维砂土剖面的热湿耦合运移进行了为期60 d的数值计算,通过比较原模型和改进模型的计算结果,考察了土壤水分运移温度效应的大小.计算结果表明:第10 d,20 d,30 d,40 d,50 d和60 d时,温度效应对土壤水分含量的相对影响分别为4.98%,5.57%,6.23%,6.96%,7.78%和8.7%.同时发现,土壤水分运移的温度效应在土壤表层表现得最为明显.     

Temporal and spatial variations in the Palmer Drought Severity Index over the past four centuries in arid, semiarid, and semihumid East Asia

Based on a database of 106 annually resolved tree-ring chronologies and 244 Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI)grid data,we attempted to reconstruct gridded spatial drought patterns in each year over the past four centuries in the arid,semiarid,and semihumid East Asia.The results showed that these regions mainly experienced drought events during the periods from AD 1601 to AD 1652,AD 1680 to AD 1718,AD 1779 to AD 1791,AD 1807 to AD 1824,AD 1846 to AD 1885,and AD 1961 to AD 1999.In the middle of the 16th century,severe droughts occurred mainly in North China;during the period from AD 1876 to AD 1878,droughts occurred in most parts of northern China;and from the 1920s to 1940s,catastrophic drought events spread across almost all of northern China and Mongolia.These historical drought events caused severe ecological and environmental problems and substantially affected the development of human society.In these regions,temperature and summer monsoon precipitation are the main factors influencing drought events.In western areas,PDSI and temperature exhibit a close relationship,whereas in eastern areas,summer monsoon rainfall is the dominant factor influencing variations in PDSI.     

Ensemble projection of 1―3℃ warming in China

Studies on the influences of climate change on biogeochemical cycles and on the key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change suggest that annual surface temperature rise of 1 ℃, 2℃ and 3℃ above the present level would lead to changes in extreme weather and climate events, food production, fresh water resources, biodiversity, human mortality, etc. Here two sets of simulations as performed with seventeen atmosphere-ocean general circulation models （AOGCMs） for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC AR4）, i.e. the model outputs from the 20th Century Climate in Coupled Models （20C3M） and from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES） emission scenarios B1, A1B and A2, are used to analyze spatial and temporal characteristics of the above values in China over the 21st century. The results indicate that the rate of warming varies from region to region. The above values are reached much later （earlier） when emission amount is lower （higher）, and spread of the time when the lower （higher） value is exceeded is narrower （wider） among the three scenarios. As far as the spatial pattern is concerned, the above values are crossed much earlier in northern China and the Tibetan Plateau with respect to the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley and South China.     

River discharge changes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

THE QINGHAI-TIBET PLATEAU IS SENSITIVE TO GLOBAL CLI- MATE CHANGES, AND ITS MEAN WARMING AMPLITUDE DURING THE PAST 50 YEARS IS GREATER THAN THAT OF THE NORTHERNHEMISPHERE AND OTHER REGIONS IN THE SAME LATITUDE[1,2]. DUE TO ITS SPECIFIC GEOMORPHIC CONDITIO…     

Effects of pre-strain and baking parameters on the microstructure and bake-hardening behavior of dual-phase steel

In a typical process, C-Mn steel was annealed at 800°C for 180 s, and then cooled rapidly to obtain the ferrite-martensite microstructure. After pre-straining, the specimens were baked and the corresponding bake-hardening (BH) values were determined as a function of pre-strain, baking temperature, and baking time. The influences of pre-strain, baking temperature and baking time on the microstructure evolution and bake-hardening behavior of the dual-phase steel were investigated systematically. It was found that the BH value apparently increased with an increase in pre-strain in the range from 0 to 1%; however, increasing pre-strain from 1% to 8% led to a decrease in the BH value. Furthermore, an increase in baking temperature favored a gradual improvement in the BH value because of the formation of Cottrell atmosphere and the precipitation of carbides in both the ferrite and martensite phases. The BH value reached a maximum of 110 MPa at a baking temperature of 300°C. Moreover, the BH value enhanced significantly with increasing baking time from 10 to 100 min.     

Forced response of atmospheric oscillations during the last millennium simulated by a climate system model

Variations in global atmospheric oscillations during the last millennium are simulated using the climate system model FGOALS_gl. The model was driven by reconstructions of both natural forcing (solar variability and volcanic aerosol) and anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol). The model results are compared against proxy reconstruction data. The reconstructed North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was out of phase with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the last millennium. During the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the NAO was strong while the PDO was weak. During the Little Ice Age (LIA), the NAO was weak while the PDO was strong. A La Niña-like state prevailed in the MWP, while an El Niño-like state dominated in the LIA. This phenomenon is particularly obvious in the 15th, 17th and 19th centuries. Analysis of the model output indicates that the NAO was generally positive during 1000?C1400 AD and negative during 1650?C1900 AD. There is a discrepancy between the simulation and reconstruction during 1400?C1650 AD. The simulated PDO generally varies in parallel with the reconstruction, which has a negative phase during the MWP and a positive phase during the LIA. The correlation coefficient between the reconstruction and simulation is 0.61, and the correlation is statistically significant at the 1% level. Neither the La Niña-like state of the MWP nor the El Niño-like state of the LIA is reproduced in the model. Both the reconstructed and the simulated Antarctic Oscillations had a negative phase in the early period of the last millennium and a positive phase in the late period of the last millennium. The Asian-Pacific Oscillation was generally strong during the WMP and weak during the LIA, and the correlation coefficient between the simulation and reconstruction is 0.50 for the period 1000?C1985 AD. The analysis suggests that the specified external forcings significantly affected the evolution of atmospheric oscillation during the last millennium.     

A comparison of the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th century warming simulated by the FGOALS climate system model

To compare differences among the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Little Ice Age (LIA), and 20th century global warming (20CW), six sets of transient and equilibrium simulations were generated using the climate system model FGOALS_gl. This model was developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The results indicate that MWP warming is evident on a global scale, except for at mid-latitudes of the North Pacific. However, the magnitude of the warming is weaker than that in the 20th century. The warming in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere is stronger than that in the Southern Hemisphere. The LIA cooling is also evident on a global scale, with a strong cooling over the high Eurasian continent, while the cooling center is over the Arctic domain. Both the MWP and the 20CW experiments exhibit the strongest warming anomalies in the middle troposphere around 200?C300 hPa, but the cooling center of the LIA experiment is seen in the polar surface of the Northern Hemisphere. A comparison of model simulation against the reconstruction indicates that model??s performance in simulating the surface air temperature changes during the warm periods is better than that during the cold periods. The consistencies between model and reconstruction in lower latitudes are better than those in high latitudes. Comparison of the inter-annual variability mode of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall during the MWP, LIA and 20CW reveals a similar rainfall anomalies pattern. However, the time spectra of the principal component during the three typical periods of the last millennium are different, and the quasi-biannual oscillation is more evident during the two warm periods. At a centennial time scale, the external mode of the EASM variability driven by the changes of effective solar radiation is determined by the changes of large scale land-sea thermal contrast. The rainfall anomalies over the east of 110°E exhibit a meridional homogeneous change pattern, which is different from the meridional out-of-phase change of rainfall anomalies associated with the internal mode.     

信阳市城区四季变化特征研究

以1951-2013年信阳市城区日均气温为研究对象,运用5日滑动平均、Mann-Kendall检验、小波分析和R/S分析等方法,对四季开始及持续时间变化特征进行研究.结果表明:(1)过去63年,信阳市城区平均入春、入夏、入秋、入冬的时间分别为:3月26日、5月29日、9月19日和11月20日;(2)春季长度具有增加趋势,冬季长度具有缩短趋势,意味着1951-2013年信阳市城区年均温具有升高的趋势,与IPCC报告的结果相一致;(3)四季开始的时间及长度具有短的波动周期(10年内);(4)未来信阳市城区四季开始及持续时间变化趋势将延续过去63年变化.     

New discoveries on the effects of desertification on the ground temperature of permafrost and its significance to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The desert and permafrost conditions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are unique.However,the effects of desertification on the ground temperature of permafrost are currently unclear.Recently,understanding this problem has become more urgent because of increasing desertification on the plateau.For this reason,an observational field experiment was undertaken by the authors at Honglianghe on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Thermistor ground temperature probes were used,and synchronized contrasting observations were made in an open area.Observations of the ground temperature of permafrost below sand layers with a range of thicknesses were made from May 2010 to April 2011.The sand layers were found to play a key role in the protection of the underlying permafrost.The ground temperature below a permafrost table overlain by a thick sand layer was lower than that of the average annual temperature for the natural ground surface,and the temperature drop was roughly constant at 0.2°C.During the warmer part of the year (May to September),the maximum temperature drops over the five months were 3.40,3.72,4.85,3.16,and 1.88°C,respectively.The ground temperature near a permafrost table overlain by a thin sand layer was also lower than that of the average annual temperature for the natural ground surface.However,in this case the average of the annual maximum temperature drop was significantly less,0.71°C.The scientific significance of our preliminary conclusions is not only to present an exploration of the interaction between desertification and permafrost,but also to provide new engineering ideas for protecting the permafrost in regions where construction is required on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.     

我国极端温度事件的定义和趋势分析

 利用1961-2005年45 a中国日平均温度的站点资料和累积频率的统计方法,确定了以90%（10%）累积频率为标准的日、旬、月和季四种不同时间尺度的极端高（低）温事件的阈值。分析表明,日尺度阈值（简称“日阈值”）用于检测极端高（低）温事件最为合理。但在日阈值的季节变化中包含系统性的天气扰动,因此需对其进行低通滤波,滤去8日以下的波动,最终可得到较为合理的检测极端温度事件的日阈值。对用日阈值检测出的全国极端温度事件,定义频数（日平均温度等于或超过高阈值的次数）和平均强度（极端温度事件的日平均温度总和与频数的比值）两个参数进行分析,发现频数的线性趋势表现为：高温事件（大于等于高阈值）中,内蒙古和新疆北部均为大趋势区,而西南地区为小趋势区,低温事件（小于等于低阈值）则相反,趋势显著的地区为高温事件中的东北、华北和青藏高原一带。平均强度的线性趋势表现为：高温事件中,我国东北地区为负趋势的大值区,云南西北部和海南省大部分地区为正趋势的大值区。低温事件则相反,趋势显著区则为高、低温事件中25°N的以南地区。