Some surprising facts about (the problem of) surprising facts: (from the Dusseldorf Conference,February 2011)

A common intuition about evidence is that if data x have been used to construct a hypothesis H, then x should not be used again in support of H. It is no surprise that x fits H, if H was deliberately constructed to accord with x. The question of when and why we should avoid such “double-counting” continues to be debated in philosophy and statistics. It arises as a prohibition against data mining, hunting for significance, tuning on the signal, and ad hoc hypotheses, and as a preference for predesignated hypotheses and “surprising” predictions. I have argued that it is the severity or probativeness of the test—or lack of it—that should determine whether a double-use of data is admissible. I examine a number of surprising ambiguities and unexpected facts that continue to bedevil this debate.     

电力系统专网的无线Mesh监测终端的研制

针对Ad hoc网络在电力系统应用中节点流量任意性的问题,提出一种改进型的无线Mesh监测组网方式.同时,研制了一套针对230 MHz电力系统专网的无线Mesh监测终端,并介绍了其实现方法.在实际的使用中,该终端在传输视音频数据方面性能表现良好.     

Stochastic models underlying Croston's method for intermittent demand forecasting

Croston's method is widely used to predict inventory demand when it is intermittent. However, it is an ad hoc method with no properly formulated underlying stochastic model. In this paper, we explore possible models underlying Croston's method and three related methods, and we show that any underlying model will be inconsistent with the properties of intermittent demand data. However, we find that the point forecasts and prediction intervals based on such underlying models may still be useful. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Some practical aspects of forecasting in organizations

This paper presents the writer's experience, over a period of 25 years, in analysing organizational systems and, in particular, concentrates on the overall forecasting activity. The paper first looks at the relationship between forecasting and decision taking–with emphasis on the fact that forecasting is a means to aid decision taking and not an end in itself. It states that there are many types of forecasting problems, each requiring different methods of treatment. The paper then discusses attitudes which are emerging about the relative advantages of different forecasting techniques. It suggests a model building process which requires‘experience’and‘craftsmanship’, extensive practical application, frequent interaction between theory and practice and a methodology that eventually leads to models that contain no detectable inadequacies. Furthermore, it argues that although models which forecast a time series from its past history have a very important role to play, for effective policy making it is necessary to augment the model by introducing policy variables, again in a systematic not an ‘ad hoc’ manner. Finally, the paper discusses how forecasting systems can be introduced into the management process in the first place and how they should be monitored and updated when found wanting.     

From positivism to conventionalism: Comte,Renouvier, and Poincaré

Considered in its historical context, conventionalism is quite different from the way in which it has been caricatured in more recent philosophy of science, that is, as a conservative philosophy that allows the preservation of theories through arbitrary ad hoc stratagems. It is instead a liberal outgrowth of Comtean positivism, which broke with the Reidian interpretation of the Newtonian tradition in France and defended a role for hypotheses in the sciences. It also has roots in the social contract political philosophy of Renouvier, who explicitly drew the analogy between conventions in political life and the conventional acceptance of hypotheses in the sciences, and conceived a philosophy that permits scientists to set aside foundational worries and explore new ideas. Although Poincaré and Renouvier may have hesitated to accept certain then recent developments in mathematics and the sciences such as non-Euclidean geometries, this conservatism cannot necessarily be attributed to their conventionalism. It may instead reflect the engineering background they shared with Comte, which emphasizes practical applications. Although Renouvier and Poincaré may have seen no practical use for these new ideas, unlike Comte they did not prohibit others from pursuing them, reflecting conventionalism's more liberal attitude toward recent developments in the sciences.     

Migration and dispersal of spermatozoa in spermathecae of queen honeybees (Apis mellifera L.)

Summary Observations of variability in the phenotypic composition of honeybee colonies through time have led to ad hoc hypotheses concerning the distribution of spermatozoa in multiply mated honeybee queens. These hypotheses are not supported by available data. Serial sections of spermathecae from honeybee queens were examined by light microscopy. No obvious physical evidence was observed of agglomerations, aggregations, clumps, layers, or wads of spermatozoa within spermathecae within 24 h of insemination. A hypothesis is proposed explaining the occurrence of fluctuations of progeny phenotypes.     

New phytotoxic butenolides produced bySeiridium cardinale,the pathogen of cypress canker disease

Summary Two new butenolides, seiridin andiso-seiridin, were isolated from culture filtrates ofSeiridium cardinale, the pathogen of cypress canker, a destructive disease ofCupressus and relatedConiferae These metabolites were characterized as 3-methyl-4-(2-hydroxyheptyl)-2(5H)-furanone and its 4-(3-hydroxyheptyl) isomer, respectively. Chlorotic, and necrotic symptoms were produced on leaves of either host or non-host test plants by absorption of 0.3 mg/ml solutions of either compound. These also showed antibacterial activity.This study was supported in part by the National Research Council, Rome (special ad hoc project Chimica fine e secondaria) and in part by the Ministry of Education, Rome.     

A hybrid-stress solid-shell element for non-linear analysis of piezoelectric structures

This paper presents eight-node solid-shell elements for geometric non-linear analyze of piezoelectric structures.To subdue shear,trapezoidal and thickness locking,the assumed natural strain method and an ad hoc modified generalized laminate stiffness matrix are employed.With the generalized stresses arising from the modified generalized laminate stiffness matrix assumed to be independent from the ones obtained from the displacement,an extended Hellinger-Reissner functional can be derived.By choosing the ass...     

Parsimonious modeling and forecasting of corporate yield curve

This paper investigates the sensitivity of out‐of‐sample forecasting performance over a span of different parameters of l in the dynamic Nelson–Siegel three‐factor AR(1) model. First, we find that the ad hoc selection of l is not optimal. Second, we find a substantial difference in factor dynamics between investment‐grade and speculative‐grade corporate bonds from 1994:12 to 2006: 4. Third, we suggest that the three‐factor model is sufficient to explain the main variations of corporate yield changes. Finally, the parsimonious Nelson–Siegel three‐factor AR(1) model remains competitive in the out‐of‐sample forecasting of corporate yields. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

I ain’t afraid of no ghost

This paper criticizes the traditional philosophical account of the quantization of gauge theories and offers an alternative. On the received view, gauge theories resist quantization because they feature distinct mathematical representatives of the same physical state of affairs. This resistance is overcome by a sequence of ad hoc modifications, justified in part by reference to semiclassical electrodynamics. Among other things, these modifications introduce ”ghosts”: particles with unphysical properties which do not appear in asymptotic states and which are said to be purely a notational convenience. I argue that this sequence of modifications is unjustified and inadequate, making it a poor basis for the interpretation of ghosts. I then argue that gauge theories can be quantized by the same method as any other theory. On this account, ghosts are not purely notation: they are coordinates on the classical configuration space of the theory—specifically, on its gauge structure. This interpretation does not fall prey to the standard philosophical arguments against the significance of ghosts, due to Weingard. Weingard’s argumentative strategy, properly applied, in fact tells in favor of ghosts’ physical significance.     

The naturalism of the sciences

The sciences are characterized by what is sometimes called a “methodological naturalism,” which disregards talk of divine agency. In response to those who argue that this reflects a dogmatic materialism, a number of philosophers have offered a pragmatic defense. The naturalism of the sciences, they argue, is provisional and defeasible: it is justified by the fact that unsuccessful theistic explanations have been superseded by successful natural ones. But this defense is inconsistent with the history of the sciences. The sciences have always exhibited what we call a domain naturalism. They have never invoked divine agency, but have always focused on the causal structure of the natural world. It is not the case, therefore, that the sciences once employed theistic explanations and then abandoned them. The naturalism of the sciences is as old as science itself.     

On the synthesis of poliovirus RNA at supraoptimal temperatures

Riassunto La scarsa incorporazione di precursori dello ARN in cellule infette da poliovirus ed incubate a 41,5°C è dovuta ad una inibizione della sintesi dello ARN virale più che non ad una sua digestione ad opera di nucleasi.

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Work supported by a Grant of Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Rome.     

Pre-Euclidean geometry and Aeginetan coin design: some further remarks

Some ancient Greek coins from the island state of Aegina depict peculiar geometric designs. Hitherto they have been interpreted as anticipations of some Euclidean propositions. But this paper proposes geometrical constructions which establish connections to pre-Euclidean treatments of incommensurability. The earlier Aeginetan coin design from about 500 bc onwards appears as an attempt not only to deal with incommensurability but also to conceal it. It might be related to Plato’s dialogue Timaeus. The newer design from 404 bc onwards reveals incommensurability, namely in the context of ‘doubling the square’. It thereby covers the same topic but a different geometry as passages in Plato’s dialogue Meno (385 bc). This coin design incorporates important elements of ancient Greek geometrical analysis of the fifth century bc like the gnomon, Hippocrates’ squaring of the lunule (ca. 430 bc), and a geometrical version of monetary equivalence. Through this venue, the design’s conceptual lineage might be traced as far back as Heraclitus’ cosmology of about 500 bc.     

The cyclin-dependent kinase family in the social amoebozoan Dictyostelium discoideum

Cyclin-dependent kinases (Cdk) are a family of serine/threonine protein kinases that regulate eukaryotic cell cycle progression. Their ability to modulate the cell cycle has made them an attractive target for anti-cancer therapies. Cdk protein function has been studied in a variety of Eukaryotes ranging from yeast to humans. In the social amoebozoan Dictyostelium discoideum, several homologues of mammalian Cdks have been identified and characterized. The life cycle of this model organism is comprised of a feeding stage where single cells grow and divide mitotically as they feed on their bacterial food source and a multicellular developmental stage that is induced by starvation. Thus it is a valuable system for studying a variety of cellular and developmental processes. In this review I summarize the current knowledge of the Cdk protein family in Dictyostelium by highlighting the research efforts focused on the characterization of Cdk1, Cdk5, and Cdk8 in this model Eukaryote. Accumulated evidence indicates that each protein performs distinct functions during the Dictyostelium life cycle with Cdk1 being required for growth and Cdk5 and Cdk8 being required for processes that occur during development. Recent studies have shown that Dictyostelium Cdk5 shares attributes with mammalian Cdk5 and that the mammalian Cdk inhibitor roscovitine can be used to inhibit Cdk5 activity in Dictyostelium. Together, these results show that Dictyostelium can be used as a model system for studying Cdk protein function.     

Fifty years of amanitin

Pharmacokinetic studies have provided new insights into humanAmanita poisoning, but it appears to be impossible to treat this intoxication by immunotherapy. New synthetic analogs have revealed structure-activity relationships that were unknown so far. The main toxin, α-amanitin, is in constant use as a tool in molecular biology and in biological research. First experiments have been reported in which amanitin bound to polymers could be internalized into tumor cells via a receptor-mediated endocytosis.     

Protease-activated-receptor-2 affects protease-activated-receptor-1-driven breast cancer

Mammalian protease-activated-receptor-1 and -2 (PAR₁ and PAR₂) are activated by proteases found in the flexible microenvironment of a tumor and play a central role in breast cancer. We propose in the present study that PAR₁ and PAR₂ act together as a functional unit during malignant and physiological invasion processes. This notion is supported by assessing pro-tumor functions in the presence of short hairpin; shRNA knocked-down hPar2 or by the use of a truncated PAR₂ devoid of the entire cytoplasmic tail. Silencing of hPar2 by shRNA-attenuated thrombin induced PAR₁ signaling as recapitulated by inhibiting the assembly of Etk/Bmx or Akt onto PAR₁-C-tail, by thrombin-instigated colony formation and invasion. Strikingly, shRNA-hPar2 also inhibited the TFLLRN selective PAR₁ pro-tumor functions. In addition, while evaluating the physiological invasion process of placenta extravillous trophoblast (EVT) organ culture, we observed inhibition of both thrombin or the selective PAR₁ ligand; TFLLRNPNDK induced EVT invasion by shRNA-hPar2 but not by scrambled shRNA-hPar2. In parallel, when a truncated PAR₂ was utilized in a xenograft mouse model, it inhibited PAR₁–PAR₂-driven tumor growth in vivo. Similarly, it also attenuated the interaction of Etk/Bmx with the PAR₁-C-tail in vitro and decreased markedly selective PAR₁-induced Matrigel invasion. Confocal images demonstrated co-localization of PAR₁ and PAR₂ in HEK293T cells over-expressing YFP-hPar2 and HA-hPar1. Co-immuno-precipitation analyses revealed PAR₁-PAR₂ complex formation but no PAR₁-CXCR4 complex was formed. Taken together, our observations show that PAR₁ and PAR₂ act as a functional unit in tumor development and placenta-uterus interactions. This conclusion may have significant consequences on future breast cancer therapeutic modalities and improved late pregnancy outcome.     

Bacterial serine proteases secreted by the autotransporter pathway: classification,specificity, and role in virulence

Serine proteases exist in eukaryotic and prokaryotic organisms and have emerged during evolution as the most abundant and functionally diverse group. In Gram-negative bacteria, there is a growing family of high molecular weight serine proteases secreted to the external milieu by a fascinating and widely employed bacterial secretion mechanism, known as the autotransporter pathway. They were initially found in Neisseria, Shigella, and pathogenic Escherichia coli, but have now also been identified in Citrobacter rodentium, Salmonella, and Edwardsiella species. Here, we focus on proteins belonging to the serine protease autotransporter of Enterobacteriaceae (SPATEs) family. Recent findings regarding the predilection of serine proteases to host intracellular or extracellular protein-substrates involved in numerous biological functions, such as those implicated in cytoskeleton stability, autophagy or innate and adaptive immunity, have helped provide a better understanding of SPATEs’ contributions in pathogenesis. Here, we discuss their classification, substrate specificity, and potential roles in pathogenesis.     

5-Iodo-2-deoxyuridine resistance of vaccinia viruses in cells endowed with thymidine kinase activity

Riassunto La IUdR resistenza che alcuni DNA virus manifestano in cellule dotate di timidino-kinasi può essere dovuta ad una accentuata retroinibizione di questo enzima ad opera di TTP.

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This work has been supported by a grant of the Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (Roma).     

The influence of temperature upon the change from the male to the female phase inOphryotrocha puerilis puerilis,a polychaete worm

Riassunto Individui diOphryotrocha puerilis puerilis sono stati allevati a temperature di 10, 18 e 21 °C. Gli individui allevati a temperature più elevate hanno invertito il sesso ad un numero di segmenti inferiore agli altri. Si rileva che la sottospecie mediterranea diOphryotrocha puerilis inverte ad un numero di segmenti inferiore alla sottospecie atlantica.