Reconceptualising equilibrium in Boltzmannian statistical mechanics and characterising its existence

In Boltzmannian statistical mechanics macro-states supervene on micro-states. This leads to a partitioning of the state space of a system into regions of macroscopically indistinguishable micro-states. The largest of these regions is singled out as the equilibrium region of the system. What justifies this association? We review currently available answers to this question and find them wanting both for conceptual and for technical reasons. We propose a new conception of equilibrium and prove a mathematical theorem which establishes in full generality – i.e. without making any assumptions about the system׳s dynamics or the nature of the interactions between its components – that the equilibrium macro-region is the largest macro-region. We then turn to the question of the approach to equilibrium, of which there exists no satisfactory general answer so far. In our account, this question is replaced by the question when an equilibrium state exists. We prove another – again fully general – theorem providing necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of an equilibrium state. This theorem changes the way in which the question of the approach to equilibrium should be discussed: rather than launching a search for a crucial factor (such as ergodicity or typicality), the focus should be on finding triplets of macro-variables, dynamical conditions, and effective state spaces that satisfy the conditions of the theorem.     

Forecasting and nowcasting emerging market GDP growth rates: The role of latent global economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic data surprise factors

In this paper, we assess the predictive content of latent economic policy uncertainty and data surprise factors for forecasting and nowcasting gross domestic product (GDP) using factor-type econometric models. Our analysis focuses on five emerging market economies: Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey; and we carry out a forecasting horse race in which predictions from various different models are compared. These models may (or may not) contain latent uncertainty and surprise factors constructed using both local and global economic datasets. The set of models that we examine in our experiments includes both simple benchmark linear econometric models as well as dynamic factor models that are estimated using a variety of frequentist and Bayesian data shrinkage methods based on the least absolute shrinkage operator (LASSO). We find that the inclusion of our new uncertainty and surprise factors leads to superior predictions of GDP growth, particularly when these latent factors are constructed using Bayesian variants of the LASSO. Overall, our findings point to the importance of spillover effects from global uncertainty and data surprises, when predicting GDP growth in emerging market economies.     

基于分支限界搜索框架的测试用例自动生成

作为软件测试领域的一个基本问题和热点问题,面向路径的测试用例自动生成有着特殊的重要意义.面向路径的测试用例生成本质上是一个约束满足问题,并通过搜索算法求解.着眼于提升搜索算法的效率,本文提出了一种新的智能算法,将分支限界和爬山法进行了有机的整合,分支限界作为全局搜索算法,而爬山法作为局部搜索算法,发挥各自的优势来对测试用例的解空间进行搜索.     

Geopolitical risk and global financial cycle: Some forecasting experiments

In this study, we investigate the connection between geopolitical risk (GPR) and global financial cycle (GFCy) as well as whether the former has predictive value for the out-of-sample predictability of the latter. We utilize both the historical and recent GPR data and their variants, namely, GPR act covering all “acts” that constitute GPR such as war, nuclear invasion and terrorism, and GPR threat, which represents threats of these acts. We construct a predictive model that accommodates the salient features of the predicted and predictor series while the forecast evaluation is conducted for both in-sample and out-of-sample periods. Our findings reveal that a rise in GPR discourages investments in risky assets and by implication worsens GFCy. The impact is more severe after the global financial crisis (gfc), and the GPR threat exerts more adverse effect on GFCy compared with GPR act regardless of whether historical GPR or recent GPR is used. Meanwhile, the predictive model of GFCy that accommodates the GPR data outperforms the benchmark model that ignores it both in the in-sample and out-of-sample estimates albeit with improved forecast performance during the post-gfc period and at a longer forecast horizon. However, the recent GPR data, which are broader in scope, offer better forecast accuracy than the historical GPR data. Additional analyses involving the vulnerability of global economic conditions reveal similar outcomes as GFCy.     

The scales of experience: Introduction to the special issue Experiencing the global environment

The Scales of Experience introduces the special issue Experiencing the Global Environment by focusing on three dimensions of the theme that are reflected to various degrees in the constitutive essays. First, the introduction highlights the links between the epistemological and political contexts of the historical constitution and development of the global environment (or global environments) in the earth and environmental sciences from the late nineteenth century to today. Second, it argues for a historical approach to the complex concept of scientific experience, whose mutable and contingent qualities are demonstrated by the contributions to the special volume. Lastly, the introduction presents one of the central issues to be tackled by the essays to follow: the development – and, at times, the failure – of strategies and technologies to bridge the seemingly incommensurate gulf between individual, localized experience and the all-encompassing scale of the global environment.     

“Local–Global”: the first twenty years

This paper investigates how and when pairs of terms such as “local–global” and “im Kleinen–im Grossen” began to be used by mathematicians as explicit reflexive categories. A first phase of automatic search led to the delineation of the relevant corpus, and to the identification of the period from 1898 to 1918 as that of emergence. The emergence appears to have been, from the very start, both transdisciplinary (function theory, calculus of variations, differential geometry) and international, although the AMS-Göttingen connection played a specific part. First used as an expository and didactic tool (e.g. by Osgood), it soon played a crucial part in the creation of new mathematical concepts (e.g. in Hahn’s work), in the shaping of research agendas (e.g. Blaschke’s global differential geometry), and in Weyl’s axiomatic foundation of the manifold concept. We finally turn to France, where in the 1910s, in the wake of Poincaré’s work, Hadamard began to promote a research agenda in terms of “passage du local au general.”     

Predicting LDC debt rescheduling: performance evaluation of OLS,logit, and neural network models

Empirical studies in the area of sovereign debt have used statistical models singularly to predict the probability of debt rescheduling. Unfortunately, researchers have made few efforts to test the reliability of these model predictions or to identify a superior prediction model among competing models. This paper tested neural network, OLS, and logit models' predictive abilities regarding debt rescheduling of less developed countries (LDC). All models predicted well out‐of‐sample. The results demonstrated a consistent performance of all models, indicating that researchers and practitioners can rely on neural networks or on the traditional statistical models to give useful predictions. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chemical properties of alcohols and their protein binding sites

Alcohols affect a wide array of biological processes including protein folding, neurotransmission and immune responses. It is becoming clear that many of these effects are mediated by direct binding to proteins such as neurotransmitter receptors and signaling molecules. This review summarizes the unique chemical properties of alcohols which contribute to their biological effects. It is concluded that alcohols act mainly as hydrogen bond donors whose binding to the polypeptide chain is stabilized by hydrophobic interactions. The electronegativity of the O atom may also play a role in stabilizing contacts with the protein. Properties of alcohol binding sites have been derived from X-ray crystal structures of alcohol-protein complexes and from mutagenesis studies of ion channels and enzymes that bind alcohols. Common amino acid sequences and structural features are shared among the protein segments that are involved in alcohol binding. The alcohol binding site is thought to consist of a hydrogen bond acceptor in a turn or loop region that is often situated at the N-terminal end of an alpha-helix. The methylene chain of the alcohol molecule appears to be accommodated by a hydrophobic groove formed by two or more structural elements, frequently a turn and an alpha-helix. Binding at these sites may alter the local protein structure or displace bound solvent molecules and perturb the function of key proteins.     

基于多本体的煤炭调度集成系统的研究

针对公司煤炭调度系统中总调度系统与下属分矿的子调度系统中存在异构数据源导致难以实现数据共享,设计了一个基于多本体的煤炭调度集成系统架构。重点研究了系统查询处理过程,首先根据全局本体到局部本体的映射,把针对全局本体的查询语句分解为对局部本体的子查询,再将子查询进一步重写为关系数据源的查询语句并给出了RDQL—to—SQL查询重写算法,最后把对关系数据源的SQL子查询结果进行集成返回给用户。     

In defence of story-telling

We argue that narratives are central to the success of historical reconstruction. Narrative explanation involves tracing causal trajectories across time. The construction of narrative, then, often involves postulating relatively speculative causal connections between comparatively well-established events. But speculation is not always idle or harmful: it also aids in overcoming local underdetermination by forming scaffolds from which new evidence becomes relevant. Moreover, as our understanding of the past's causal milieus become richer, the constraints on narrative plausibility become increasingly strict: a narrative's admissibility does not turn on mere logical consistency with background data. Finally, narrative explanation and explanation generated by simple, formal models complement one another. Where models often achieve isolation and precision at the cost of simplification and abstraction, narratives can track complex changes in a trajectory over time at the cost of simplicity and precision. In combination both allow us to understand and explain highly complex historical sequences.     

全球变化研究中的"科学政治化"倾向--以美国气候政策为例

在国际社会为防止、适应全球变化的努力中,会涉及到国家、地方和民族的诸多利益。全球变化研究成为与国家安全、食物供应、水资源、温室气体排放、人类健康等问题密切相关的社会问题。美国为国际全球变化研究做出了突出的贡献,但当国际气候框架与其国内经济发展出现冲突时,美国的气候政策也开始了以保障国内经济发展和企业利益的调整,作为国家支持的全球变化研究也需要针对这些调整而不断修正研究方向和关注重点,为有利于美国的政治和政策服务,表现出了明显的“科学政治化”倾向。本文分析了美国自2001年3月退出《京都议定书》以来的一系列的政策和研究支持的调整,尤其对美国的《京都议定书》替代方案《晴朗天空与全球气候变化行动》进行了深入的分析。根据这些分析,可以对国际全球变化研究与国家政治和利益的关系有一个总体的了解,为我国科研工作者和生产企业提供有益借鉴。     

Climates as commodities: Jean Pierre Purry and the modelling of the best climate on Earth

The paper looks at how an early eighteenth-century climatological model of the ‘best climate’ on Earth became a platform for political, economic, and demographic action of extraordinary significance for the colonization of new commodity environments. It analyzes the science used by an early modern business adventurer to model ‘climate’ as an economic tool informing imperial governance and exploitation of local resources. Jean Pierre Purry’s construction of ‘model climate’ portrayed North Carolina’s township at Yamassee River as an ideal environment geared toward mercantilist principles of trade but also as a model community based on skilled labor and optimal climatic capital. His climatological analysis was a purposeful act of policy making based on a science of colonial expansion similar to more recent calls at economic modelling of future climate impact.     

The development of general circulation models of climate

With the coming of digital computers in the 1950s, a small American team set out to model the weather, followed by attempts to represent the entire general circulation of the atmosphere. The work spread during the 1960s, and by the 1970s a few modelers had produced somewhat realistic looking models of the planet’s regional climate pattern. The work took on wider interest when modelers tried increasing the level of greenhouse gases, and invariably found serious global warming. Skeptics pointed to dubious technical features, but by the late 1990s these problems were largely resolved—thanks to enormous increases in computer power, the number and size of the closely interacting teams that now comprised the international modeling community, and the crucial availability of field experiments and satellite data to set against the models’ assumptions and outputs. By 2007 nearly all climate experts accepted that the climate simulations represented reality well enough to impel strong action to restrict gas emissions.     

Physiological effects of the meteorologically abnormal year 1974 observed in healthy males in the Netherlands and southern Norway.

Convincing evidence of biological effects during long-term abnormal weather conditions is very rare because usually no continuous series of physiological data from the same animals or humans (either single or in groups) have been collected over many years during the period preceding the meteorological event. Since 1955, at the Biometeorological Research centre, Leiden, about 220,000 blood data were collected from healthy male blood donors at Leiden, The Netherlands, and about 110,000 data at Oslo, Norway, since 1966. It was found that during the meteorologically abnormal year of 1974, which was abnormal in many parts of the world, both in Leiden and Oslo abnormal biological patterns occurred in blood sedimentation rate, haemoglobin, diastolic blood pressure, gamma-globulin levels, Piccardi p-test percentages and a few other biological parameters. A more complete monograph will be published at a later date.     

Intron creation and DNA repair

The genesis of the exon–intron patterns of eukaryotic genes persists as one of the most enigmatic questions in molecular genetics. In particular, the origin and mechanisms responsible for creation of spliceosomal introns have remained controversial. Now the issue appears to have taken a turn. The formation of novel introns in eukaryotes, including some vertebrate lineages, is not as rare as commonly assumed. Moreover, introns appear to have been gained in parallel at closely spaced sites and even repeatedly at the same position. Based on these discoveries, novel hypotheses of intron creation have been developed. The new concepts posit that DNA repair processes are a major source of intron formation. Here, after summarizing the current views of intron gain mechanisms, I review findings in support of the DNA repair hypothesis that provides a global mechanistic scenario for intron creation. Some implications on our perception of the mosaic structure of eukaryotic genes are also discussed.     

Edward Gresham’s Astrostereon,or A Discourse of the Falling of the Planet (1603), the Copernican paradox,and the construction of early modern proto-scientific discourse

This paper investigates the functioning of the ‘Copernican paradox’ (stating that the Sun stands still and the Earth revolves around the Sun) in the late sixteenth- and early seventeenth-century England, with particular attention to Edward Gresham's (1565–1613) little-known and hitherto understudied astronomical treatise – Astrostereon, or A Discourse of the Falling of the Planet (1603). The text, which is fully appreciative of the heliocentric system, is analysed within a broader context of the ongoing struggles with the Copernican theory at the turn of the seventeenth century. The article finds that apart from having a purely rhetorical function, the ‘Copernican paradox’ featured in the epistemological debates on how early modern scientific knowledge should be constructed and popularised. The introduction of new scientific claims to sceptical audiences had to be done both through mathematical demonstrations and by referring to the familiar concepts and tools drawn from the inventory of humanist education. As this article shows, Gresham's rhetorical techniques used for the rejection of paradoxicality of heliocentrism are similar to some of the practices which Thomas Digges and William Gilbert employed in order to defend their own findings and assertions.     

Population biology of bryozoans: correlates of sessile,colonial life histories in freshwater habitats

Bryozoans are common, often abundant, sessile, colonial invertebrates of freshwaters. By reviewing what is known of their general ecology and considering in further detail the population biology of specific groups, we provide evidence that 1) populations are locally ephemeral and regional persistence is attained via a dynamic equilibrium between dispersal and colonization, and 2) sex may often be infrequent and a high degree of clonality obtains at both local and regional scales. On the basis of these characteristics we discuss how the group offers exceptional opportunities for investigating a number of fundamentally important ecological and evolutionary questions.The highly curious modification of the Molluscan type which the Polyzoa [=Bryozoa] present... the great beauty of their forms, and the facility with which they can in general be observed in a living state, cannot but render them special favorites for every lover of Nature; and for the more profound student must confer on them a peculiar significance, and invest their study with a scientific interest which is scarcely surpassed by that of any other group of animals.... (Allman 1856)     

Multiple realization and multiple “ways” of realization: A progress report

One might have thought that if something has two or more distinct realizations, then that thing is multiply realized. Nevertheless, some philosophers have claimed that two or more distinct realizations do not amount to multiple realization, unless those distinct realizations amount to multiple “ways” of realizing the thing. Corey Maley, Gualtiero Piccinini, Thomas Polger, and Lawrence Shapiro are among these philosophers. Unfortunately, they do not explain why multiple realization requires multiple “ways” of realizing. More significantly, their efforts to articulate multiple “ways” of realizing turn out to be problematic.     

The Pontifex Minimus: William Willcocks and Engineering British Colonialism

Sir William Willcocks (1852–1933) was a prominent British irrigation engineer who served in various British colonies. Best known as the chief designer of the Old Aswan Dam, Willcocks was born and trained in India, achieved prominence with his contribution to the development of centralized and perennial irrigation in Egypt, and was hired at the end of his career by the Ottomans to restore the ancient irrigation works of Mesopotamia (which was then on the verge of being acquired by the British). In this article, I follow Willcocks' voyages across the British Empire and show how hydraulic science moved from one colonial centre to another, and how this movement contributed to the construction and maintenance of colonialism on the ground. Often sent to newly acquired territories with ambitious projects to redesign the landscapes of property and agriculture, Willcocks and other engineers who gained their expertise in the colonies relied on lessons from their day-to-day struggle with the land and other social actors' competing agendas to develop the daily techniques that helped establish colonial rule. As the reception of Willcocks' work in London illustrates, it was in the metropole that engineers' practices were translated into a colonial symbolism that had large-scale technical systems as the right tools for the job of subordinating unruly waters and Nature writ large.     

Detection of regime switches between stationary and nonstationary processes and economic forecasting

It often occurs that no model may be exactly right, and that different portions of the data may favour different models. The purpose of this paper is to propose a new procedure for the detection of regime switches between stationary and nonstationary processes in economic time series and to show its usefulness in economic forecasting. In the proposed procedure, time series observations are divided into several segments, and a stationary or nonstationary autoregressive model is fitted to each segment. The goodness of fit of the global model composed of these local models is evaluated using the corresponding information criterion, and the division which minimizes the information criterion defines the best model. Simulation and forecasting results show the efficacy and limitations of the proposed procedure. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.