Note the use of growth curves in forecasting market development

In this note the four-parameter generalized logistic curve is introduced and some of its properties are discussed. The curve is then fitted to certain data sets. The results indicate that the generalized logistic can be a worthwhile alternative to the more familiar logistic and Gompertz curves.     

New Evidence on the Ability of Asset Prices and Real Economic Activity Forecast Errors to Predict Inflation Forecast Errors

This paper investigates the impact of both asset and macroeconomic forecast errors on inflation forecast errors in the USA by making use of a two‐regime model. The findings document a significant contribution of both types of forecast errors to the explanation of inflation forecast errors, with the pass‐through being stronger when these errors move within the high‐volatility regime. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting with growth curves: the effect of error structure

"The main theme of this paper is an investigation into the importance of error structure as a determinant of the forecasting accuracy of the logistic model. The relationship between the variance of the disturbance term and forecasting accuracy is examined empirically. A general local logistic model is developed as a vehicle to be used in this investigation. Some brief comments are made on the assumptions about error structure, implicit or explicit, in the literature." The results suggest that "the variance of the disturbance term, when using the logistic to forecast human populations, is proportional to at least the square of population size."     

Length of the year in pre-epicyclic planetary theory

An estimate is made of the length of the year implied in the pre-epicyclic planetary theory of the Pañcasiddhntik. It is shown that this could be the same as the year-length of the corresponding Babylonian theory.     

The anomalous rotatory dispersion curves of aporphine alkaloids

Zusammenfassung Die Untersuchung der Rotationsdispersionskurven einiger Aporphin-Basen ergab anomale Dispersion für Basen, die in 4-Stellung substituiert sind, und normale Dispersion für die unsubstituierten Basen.     

Interpretation neutrality in the classical domain of quantum theory

I show explicitly how concerns about wave function collapse and ontology can be decoupled from the bulk of technical analysis necessary to recover localized, approximately Newtonian trajectories from quantum theory. In doing so, I demonstrate that the account of classical behavior provided by decoherence theory can be straightforwardly tailored to give accounts of classical behavior on multiple interpretations of quantum theory, including the Everett, de Broglie–Bohm and GRW interpretations. I further show that this interpretation-neutral, decoherence-based account conforms to a general view of inter-theoretic reduction in physics that I have elaborated elsewhere, which differs from the oversimplified picture that treats reduction as a matter of simply taking limits. This interpretation-neutral account rests on a general three-pronged strategy for reduction between quantum and classical theories that combines decoherence, an appropriate form of Ehrenfest׳s Theorem, and a decoherence-compatible mechanism for collapse. It also incorporates a novel argument as to why branch-relative trajectories should be approximately Newtonian, which is based on a little-discussed extension of Ehrenfest׳s Theorem to open systems, rather than on the more commonly cited but less germane closed-systems version. In the Conclusion, I briefly suggest how the strategy for quantum-classical reduction described here might be extended to reduction between other classical and quantum theories, including classical and quantum field theory and classical and quantum gravity.     

Rotatory dispersion curves of some decalones of microbiological origin

Zusammenfassung Die Rotationsdispersionskurven einiger optisch aktiver Dekalonderivate sind gemessen worden. Ihre Amplituden (a) und die Amplitudenbeiträge (a) der Substituenten werden im Rahmen der Oktantenregel diskutiert.

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Paper V of the series Optical Rotatory Dispersion. For Paper IV seeC. Djerassi andW. Klyne, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. Washington, in press (1962).     

Outlier Detection in Regression Models with ARIMA Errors using Robust Estimates

A diagnostic procedure for detecting additive and innovation outliers as well as level shifts in a regression model with ARIMA errors is introduced. The procedure is based on a robust estimate of the model parameters and on innovation residuals computed by means of robust filtering. A Monte Carlo study shows that, when there is a large proportion of outliers, this procedure is more powerful than the classical methods based on maximum likelihood type estimates and Kalman filtering. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Diagnosis of the presence of meconium in amniotic fluid by dispersion curves of the longitudinal relaxations of protons]

Dispersion curves of the longitudinal relaxation T1 of protons in healthy amniotic fluid in a meconium solution are distinct at low Larmor frequencies (V0 less than 100 kHz). We are thus able to distinguish these fluids by T1 measurements in this range.