The leading indicator approach to economic forecasting—retrospect and prospect

Our purpose in this paper is to explain briefly the theory and rationale underlying the leading, coincident and lagging indicators, describe the more important statistical procedures used, and review the evidence on how the indicators have performed in practice. The tests of performance concentrate on data not used in the selection of the indicators, in the United States and nine other countries. We conclude with some suggestions for future research and development, including the application of the approach to the analysis of inflation.     

Composite leading indicators of underlying inflation for seven EU countries

This paper presents short‐ and long‐term composite leading indicators (CLIs) of underlying inflation for seven EU countries, namely Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK. CLI and CPI reference series are calculated in terms of both growth rates and in deviations from its trend. The composite leading indicators are based on leading basic series, such as sources of inflation, series containing information on inflation expectations and prices of intermediate goods and services. Neftci's decision rule approach has been applied to transfer movements in the CLIs into a measure of the probability of a cyclical turning point, which enables the screening out of false turning point predictions. Finally, CLIs have been used to analyse the international coherence of price cycles. The forecast performance of CLIs of inflation over the past raises hope that this forecast instrument can be useful in predicting future price movements. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The teachers/practitioners corner forecasting in business schools: A survey

The study of forecasting techniques has received increased attention in recent years. How to incorporate this topic into the business school curriculum is a frequent subject of discussion. The purpose of this study was to determine whether forecasting is being taught in business schools and how it is incorporated into the curriculum. The survey instrument was sent to 622 member institutions of the American Assembly of Collegiate schools of Business. The importance of teaching forecasting techniques at both the undergraduate and graduate level was investigated.     

Forecasting and the database: An analysis of databases for international business

A major consideration in the selection of a forecasting method for a specific situation is the type of pattern in the data. Before the data pattern is identified, the forecaster must recognize the dependence of any forecasting method upon the accompanying reliable database. This issue is discussed in the paper with reference to databases for international business.     

Awareness and use of forecasting techniques in british industry

The paper summarizes results of a mail survey of the use of formal forecasting techniques in British manufacturing companies. It appraises the state of awareness of particular techniques and the extent to which they are used in various functional applications. The extent to which the forecasts generated by the techniques influence company action is assessed; and the reasons for the non-use of particular techniques examined. The paper concludes that although an increasing number of companies appreciate the importance of forecasting, the methods used are predominantly naïve and few companies are taking steps to improve the situation through using alternative techniques or through computerizing established techniques.     

The impact of forecasting methodology on the accuracy of national population forecasts: evidence from the Netherlands and Czechoslovakia

"This study considers the accuracy of national population forecasts of the Netherlands and the Czechoslovak Socialist Republic.... We look at the demographic components employed in each forecast, the procedure to extrapolate fertility and the level at which assumptions for each component are formulated. Errors in total population size, fertility, mortality and foreign migration, and age structure are considered. We discuss trends in errors and methodology since 1950 and compare the situations in the two countries. The findings suggest that methodology has only a very limited impact on the accuracy of national population forecasts."     

The use of non-time series information in sales forecasting: A case study

The contribution of product and industry knowledge to the accuracy of sales forecasting was investigated by examining the company forecasts of a leading manufacturer and marketer of consumable products. The company forecasts of 18 products produced by a meeting of marketing, sales, and production personnel were compared with those generated by the same company personnel when denied specific product knowledge and with the forecasts of selected judgemental and statistical time series methods. Results indicated that product knowledge contributed significantly to forecast accuracy and that the forecast accuracy of company personnel who possessed industry forecasting knowledge (but not product knowledge) was not significantly different from the time series based methods. Furthermore, the company forecasts were more accurate than averages of the judgemental and statistical time series forecasts. These results point to the importance of specific product information to forecast accuracy and accordingly call into question the continuing strong emphasis on improving extrapolation techniques without consideration of the inclusion of non-time series knowledge.     

Suppression of annual plasma testosterone and thyroxine cycles in the edible dormouseGlis glis under constant photoperiod at 24°C

Summary Exposure of male ebible dormice all year round to an unwarying photoperiod and warm temperature disrupted their biological cycles; hibernation was almost completely suppressed, and short lived infradian cycles of body weight, and of plasma testosterone and thyroxine were measured instead of the normal annual patten.     

The role of macroeconometric models in forecasting and policy analysis in the united states

This article stresses how little is known about the quality, particularly the relative quality, of macroeconometric models. Most economists make a strict distinction between the quality of a model per se and the accuracy of solutions based on that model. While this distinction is valid, it leaves unanswered how to compare the‘validity’of conditional models. The standard test, the accuracy of ex post simulations, is not definitive when models with differing degrees of exogeneity are compared. In addition, it is extremely difficult to estimate the relative quantitative importance of conceptual problems of models, such as parameter instability across‘policy regimes’ In light of the difficulty in comparisons of conditional macroeconometric models, many model-builders and users assume that the best models are those that have been used to make the most accurate forecasts are those made with the best models. Forecasting experience indicates that forecasters using macroeconometric models have produced more accurate macroeconomic forecasts than either naive or sophisticated unconditional statistical models. It also suggests that judgementally adjusted forecasts have been more accurate than model-based forecasts generated mechanically. The influence of econometrically-based forecasts is now so pervasive that it is difficult to find examples of‘purely judgemental’forecasts.     

The use of growth curves in forecasting market development—a review and appraisal

The growth curves suitable for forecasting market development are identified and described. The underlying theoretical basis, if any, for their use is examined, and published examples of their applications are given. Doubt is cast on the value of long-term forecasts derived from growth curves applied to markets for consumables. The problems of choice between competing curves are demonstrated by means of some examples. The requirements that a growth curve should meet in order to be an appropriate forecasting tool are identified and illustrated. Many of the published examples of growth curve use are shown to be vulnerable to criticism under one or more of these criteria.     

The dynamic and stochastic instability of betas: Implications for forecasting stock returns

The purpose of this paper is to simultaneously investigate several important issues that feature the dynamic and stochastic behavior of beta coefficients for individual stocks and affect the forecasting of stock returns. The issues include randomness, nonstantionarity, and shifts in the mean and variance parameters of the beta coefficient, and are addressed within the framework of variable-mean-response (VMR) random coefficients models in which the problem of heteroscedasticity is present. Estimation is done using a four-step generalized least squares method. The hypotheses concerning randomness and nonstationarity of betas are tested. The time paths, sizes, and marginal rates of mean shifts are determined. The issue of variance shift is examined on the basis of five special tests, called T*, B, S', G and W. Then the impacts of the dynamic and stochastic instability on the estimation of betas is tested by a nonparametric procedure. Finally, the VMR models' ability of forecasting stock returns is evaluated against the standard capital asset pricing model. The empirical findings shed new light on the continuing debate as to whether the beta coefficient is random and nonstationary and have important implications for modeling and forecasting the measurement of performance and the determination of stock returns.     

Seven components of judgmental forecasting skill: Implications for research and the improvement of forecasts

A decomposition of the Brier skill score shows that the performance of judgmental forecasts depends on seven components: environmental predictability, fidelity of the information system, match between environment and forecaster, reliability of information acquisition, reliability of information processing, conditional bias, and unconditional bias. These components provide a framework for research on the forecasting process. Selected literature addressing each component is reviewed, and implications for improving judgmental forecasting are discussed.     

The role of the cilium in normal and abnormal cell cycles: emphasis on renal cystic pathologies

The primary cilium protrudes from the cell surface and acts as a sensor for chemical and mechanical growth cues, with receptors for a number of growth factors (PDGFα, Hedgehog, Wnt, Notch) concentrated within the ciliary membrane. In normal tissues, the cilium assembles after cells exit mitosis and is resorbed as part of cell cycle re-entry. Although regulation of the cilium by cell cycle transitions has been appreciated for over 100 years, only recently have data emerged to indicate the cilium also exerts influence on the cell cycle. The resorption/protrusion cycle, regulated by proteins including Aurora-A, VHL, and GSK-3β, influences cell responsiveness to growth cues involving cilia-linked receptors; further, resorption liberates the ciliary basal body to differentiate into the centrosome, which performs discrete functions in S-, G2-, and M-phase. Besides these roles, the cilium provides a positional cue that regulates polarity of cell division, and thus directs cells towards fates of differentiation versus proliferation. In this review, we summarize the specific mechanisms mediating the cilia-cell cycle dialog. We then emphasize the examples of polycystic kidney disease (PKD), nephronopthisis (NPHP), and VHL-linked renal cysts as cases in which defects of ciliary function influence disease pathology, and may also condition response to treatment.     

The use of canonical correlation analysis to identify the order of multivariate ARMA models: simulation and application

This paper is concerned with how canonical correlation can be used to identify the structure of a linear multivariate time series model. We describe briefly methods that use the canonical correlation technique and present simulation results in order to compare and evaluate the performance of these methods. The methods are also applied to a well‐known multivariate time series. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of interactional expertise in interpreting: the case of technology transfer in the steel industry

I analyse the case of three Japanese-Portuguese interpreters who have given support to technology transfer from a steel company in Japan to one in Brazil for more than thirty years. Their job requires them to be ‘interactional experts’ in steel-making. The Japanese–Portuguese interpreters are immersed in more than the language of steel-making as their job involves a great deal of ‘physical contiguity’ with steel-making practice. Physical contiguity undoubtedly makes the acquisition of interactional expertise easier. This draws attention to the lack of empirical work on the exact way that the physical and the linguistic interact in the acquisition of interactional expertise, or any other kind of expertise.     

The rise of cryptographic metaphors in Boyle and their use for the mechanical philosophy

This paper tracks the development of Boyle's conception of the natural world in terms of the popular “book of nature” trope. Boyle initially spoke of the creatures and phenomena of nature in a spiritual and moral register, as emblems of divine purpose, but gradually shifted from this ideographic view to an alphabetical account, which at times became posed in explicitly cryptographic terms. I explain this transition toward cryptographic metaphors in terms of Boyle's social and intellectual milieu and their concordance with the reductive and conjectural character of the mechanical philosophical program.     

Bacterial localization: The use of an autographic method for the study of infectious processes in mice

Riassunto Il metodo autografico è stato impiegato per la valutazione della distribuzione dei germi. Sezioni sagittali complete di topi precedentemente infettati sono state incubate e i germi vivi sono stati rivelati mediante colorazione vitale con trifeniltetrazolio. Le risultanti mappe dettagliate della distribuzione batterica permettono di penetrare il meccanismo dei processi difensivi dell'ospite e le proprietà invasive del germe.     

The sugar industry, political authorities, and scientific institutions in the regulation of saccharin: Valencia (1888-1939)

In the late-nineteenth century food production and trade were greatly transformed. Changes in the food chain gave rise to new problems connected with food safety and food quality, which caused new controls to be introduced throughout Europe. In this paper I will contribute to ongoing debates by focusing on the regulation of saccharin in an agrarian city in the south of Europe, Valencia. The laboratory-made sweetener was introduced into the food market at the turn of the century, becoming highly controversial shortly afterwards. Several local groups of players got involved in this dispute. The sugar industry was not only an important stakeholder in the passing of some specific laws that were to constrain the use of saccharin, but also the main driver of regulation, primarily in periods when saccharin could become a serious competitor and reduce the sector's profit. Furthermore, the combined work of the sugar industry and the municipal laboratories was essential for the implementation of regulations. It was in such municipal laboratories that scientists played a main role in regulation. My paper will address the commercial disputes linked to the use of saccharin and the limited role of science and scientists in its control.