Studies on Babylonian goal-year astronomy II: the Babylonian calendar and goal-year methods of prediction

This paper is the second part of an investigation into Babylonian non-mathematical astronomical texts and the relationships between Babylonian observational and predicted astronomical data. Part I (Gray and Steele 2008) showed that the predictions found in the Almanacs and Normal Star Almanacs were almost certainly made by applying Goal-Year periods to observations recorded in the Goal-Year Texts. The paper showed that the differences in dates of records between the Goal-Year Texts and the Almanacs or Normal Star Almanacs were consistent with the date corrections of a few days which, according to theoretical calculations, should be added to allow for the inexactness of Goal-Year periods. The current paper follows on from our earlier study to consider the effect of the Babylonian calendar on Goal-Year methods of prediction. Due to the fact that the Babylonian calendar year can contain either 12 or 13 months, a Goal-Year period can occasionally be month longer or shorter than usual. This suggests that there should in theory be certain points in the Metonic intercalation cycle where a predicted event occurs one Babylonian month earlier or later than the corresponding event a Goal-Year period later. By comparing dates of lunar and planetary records in the Astronomical Diaries, Goal-Year Texts, Almanacs and Normal Star Almanacs, we show that these month differences between the observational records and the predictions occur in the expected years. This lends further support to the theory that the Almanacs’ and Normal Star Almanacs’ predictions originated from records in the Goal-Year Texts, and clarifies how the Goal-Year periods were used in practice.     

Energy consumption,survey data and the prediction of industrial production in Italy: a comparison and combination of different models

We investigate the prediction of italian industrial production and first specify a model based on electricity consumption showing that the cubic trend in such a model mostly captures the evolution over time of the electricity coefficient, which can be well approximated by a smooth transition model, with no gains in predictive power. We also analyse the performance of models based on data of two different business surveys. According to the standard statistics of forecasting accuracy, the linear energy‐based model is not outperformed by any other model, nor by a combination of forecasts. However, a more comprehensive set of evaluation criteria sheds light on the relative merit of each individual model. A modelling strategy which makes full use of all information available is proposed. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Visual legitimisation of astronomy in the sixteenth and seventeeth centuries: Atlas, Hercules and Tycho’s nose

Images of the virtuous hero Hercules and the crowned King Atlas offered considerable potential for legitimising the new astronomy of the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. The accomplishments of Hercules, a seeker after virtue, with his exceptional learning, his role as disseminator of knowledge, his significance as an example of ideal manhood and, in addition to all, his achievement of immortality, invited comparison with the endeavours of astronomers. Throughout the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, Hercules and Atlas appear as the spiritual authorities of the discipline, and each was called into use to symbolise both the old and the new astronomy. Both figures embodied qualities that were decisive in struggles for patronage: they were politicised, especially Hercules, and used to legitimise claims to power.     

Forecasting regional house price inflation: a comparison between dynamic factor models and vector autoregressive models

This paper uses the dynamic factor model framework, which accommodates a large cross‐section of macroeconomic time series, for forecasting regional house price inflation. In this study, we forecast house price inflation for five metropolitan areas of South Africa using principal components obtained from 282 quarterly macroeconomic time series in the period 1980:1 to 2006:4. The results, based on the root mean square errors of one to four quarters ahead out‐of‐sample forecasts over the period 2001:1 to 2006:4 indicate that, in the majority of the cases, the Dynamic Factor Model statistically outperforms the vector autoregressive models, using both the classical and the Bayesian treatments. We also consider spatial and non‐spatial specifications. Our results indicate that macroeconomic fundamentals in forecasting house price inflation are important. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Studies on chemically induced tumors in rats: I. Heterogeneity of tumor cells and establishment of syngeneic, tumor-specific cytotoxic T cell clones

Sarcoma P1 was induced in DA rats by DMBA. Anti-P1 antibodies were produced in DA rats, purified via fixed tumor cells and used to induce anti-idiotypic antibodies in syngeneic rats. The anti-idiotypic antibodies were used to generate cytotoxic, P1 specific DA T cells in vitro. These cytotoxic T cells and P1 tumor cells were cloned by limiting dilution. Using the DA anti-P1 specific cytotoxic T cell clones, we were able to characterize 2 types of P1 tumor cell clones, namely those which were susceptible and those which were resistant to the P1 specific cytotoxic T cells. Cytotoxic T cell injected i.v. into syngeneic DA rats could not prevent the development of lethal P1 tumors.     

Studies on phytohemagglutinins XV. Hemagglutinins of the pea and the lentil: Advantage of their application in comparison to concanavalin a in some agglutination reactions

Zusammenfassung Phythämagglutinine der Erbse und Linse besitzen ähnliche biologische Eigenschaften wie Concanavalin A; ihre Aktivität ist jedoch in allen Agglutinationsreaktionen grösser als die von Concanavalin A.     

Biological activity of flucycloxuron,a novel benzoylphenylurea derivative,onTenebrio molitor: comparison with diflubenzuron and triflumuron

Flucycloxuron, a novel benzoylphenylurea (BPU) derivative, exhibited insecticidal activity when injected into newly ecdysed pupae ofTenebrio molitor. Mortality occurs because of defective adult ecdysis. Treatment caused a reduction in both cuticle thickness and incorporation of¹⁴C-labelled precursor into chitin, although it had no significant effect on the protein synthesis. The potencies of other BPU compounds as inhibitors of chitin biosynthesis have been examined and results showed that diflubenzuron was less effective than either flucycloxuron or triflumuron.     

Studies on correlations between chloroquine-induced tissue damage and serum enzyme changes in the rat

The administration of chloroquine to rats resulted in a significant elevation of serum enzymes and a corresponding decrease of these enzymes in the tissues. The changes in serum and kidney enzymes were most marked, thus indicating a primary renal dysfunction.     

Studies on cation transport in cold-stored human erythrocytes. I. Effect of aldosterone on sodium and potassium transfer

Riassunto L'aldosterone non esercita alcun effetto sugli scambi attivi di Na e di K che si manifestanoin vitro attraverso la membrana di eritrociti umani incubati a 37°C dopo 6 giorni di conservazione a 4°C.     

The measurement of the costs of maintenance in terrestrial poikilotherms: A comparison between respirometry and calorimetry

Zusammenfassung Durch Vergleich respirometrisch und kalorimetrisch bestimmter Daten über den Energieverbrauch während der Verpuppung vonTenebrio molitor wird gezeigt, dass die letztgenennte Methode der ersteren ebenbürtig ist, bei feuchtigkeitsliebenden Arten sogar überlegen sein müsste.

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I am most grateful to LKB-Produkter AB., S-161125 Bromma 1, Sweden and their staff for the extended loan of a modified Batch Microcalorimeter.     

Forecasting exchange rate volatility: a multiple horizon comparison using historical,realized and implied volatility measures

Recent studies suggest realized volatility provides forecasts that are as good as option‐implied volatilities, with improvement stemming from the use of high‐frequency data instead of a long‐memory specification. This paper examines whether volatility persistence can be captured by a longer dataset consisting of over 15 years of intra‐day data. Volatility forecasts are evaluated using four exchange rates (AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY) over horizons ranging from 1 day to 3 months, using an expanded set of short‐range and long‐range dependence models. The empirical results provide additional evidence that significant incremental information is found in historical forecasts, beyond the implied volatility information for all forecast horizons. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Studies on the relationships between biotin and the behaviour of B and T lymphocytes in the guinea-pig

Summary In biotin-deficient guinea-pigs the number of circulating neutrophils is increased; lymphocytes carrying B and T markers are decreased. Incubation with biotin increases significantly the number of lymphocytes carrying B and T markers, from biotin-deficient guinea-pigs; no increase was observed when the lymphocytes from normal guinea-pigs were incubated.     

Re-examining the impact of European astronomy in seventeenth-century China: a study of Xue Fengzuo’s system of thought and his integration of Chinese and Western knowledge

ABSTRACT

During the late Ming and early Qing period, Jesuit missionaries introduced European science into China, and thereby profoundly influenced the later development of Chinese astronomy. Not only did European astronomy become the official system of the Qing dynasty, but the traditional way to ‘attain up above’ by connecting the study of astronomy and Yi learning gradually fell into disuse. However, the astronomers in this period expressed different views on these two processes. As one of the most important early Qing astronomers, Xue Fengzuo’s case presents a distinctive and important example. Firstly, under the influences of both Chinese tradition and European science, Xue Fengzuo rebuilt the way to ‘attain up above’ based on his three-fold ‘calendrical learning’, i.e. calendrical astronomy, astrology and related pragmatic applications, through which he could realize the highest Confucian ideal. Secondly, he integrated Chinese and Western knowledge for all three aspects of his ‘calendrical learning’, instead of ceding the dominant position to Western methods. From Xue Fengzuo’s example, many of the complex effects of the encounter between different cultures and the process of knowledge transfer can be revealed.