长江中下游一次暖区极端致洪暴雨特征及天气学成因分析

基于多源观测资料和再分析资料,采用天气学诊断分析方法研究了2019年5月长江中下游地区发生的一次致洪暴雨的特征及主要成因。结果表明:该次极端致洪暴雨过程是在稳定的“西低东高”天气形势下,由持续时间长的短时强降水累积而成,具有明显的中尺度和阶段性特征。直接造成极端暴雨的中尺度对流系统在低空急流前沿不断新生东移,表现出明显的“列车效应”和准静止特点。过程中低空急流和超低空急流异常强盛,为极端暴雨提供了持续有利的水汽和对流不稳定条件,特别是整层高湿、较低的抬升凝结高度和较大暖云层厚度有利于提高降水效率,产生雨强较大的短时强降水；高低空急流耦合是强降水发生发展的重要动力机制,强垂直风切变区与暴雨落区有较好的对应。     

Significant relationship between spring AO and the summer rainfall along the Yangtze River

The influence of spring AO on the summer rainfall along the Yangtze River is investigated. The long-term rainfall observations are filtered to remove the low-frequency variations longer than 10 years. The inter-annual components show a high correlation to AO in the last hundred years. The strongest correlation appears for May AO and summer rainfall with a value of -0.39, significant above the 99% confidence level. Associated with one standard deviation stronger May AO index, the rainfall over the Yangtze River to the southern Japan decreases by about 3%-9%, while, at the same time increases by about 3%-6% in the northern China and far-eastern Russia. The coherent changes in rainfall are significantly related to the East Asian summer jet stream in the upper troposphere. When there is stronger AO in spring, the jet stream tends to move polarward in summer, and leads the rainfall-belt to move northward too. That gives rise to a drier condition in the Yangtze River valley, wetter anomalies in northern China. This signal would be helpful for the summer rainfall prediction in China.     

长江中下游汛期降水GA-BP预测模型

为分析遗传算子选择方案对遗传算法优化神经网络(GA-BP)方法的影响,建立了长江中下游汛期降水短期气候预测GA-BP模型。以最大适应度函数值为指标,比较遗传算法在不同选择、交叉、变异和整体策略方案组合中的差别,在周期特征分析的基础上讨论了不同因子组合对GA-BP模型预测效果的影响。结果表明,用竞争选择法、自适应交叉、变异和精英策略法组合构成的遗传算子方案获得的最大适应度函数值为1.35,高于其他遗传算子选择方案获得的最大适应度。利用GA-BP模型对2003-2012年汛期的降水量进行预测试验,结果表明,同时考虑环流、海温等物理影响和预测量自身周期特征的因子选择方案,模型预测值与观测值的均方根误差为129.65mm、相关系数为0.772,优于其他因子筛选方案。     

基于平流层环流变化的夏季长江下游强降水频数气候预测模型

采用相关分析方法,研究了6~8月长江下游强降水频数与前期冬季12~2月全球50 hPa纬向风的关系;并研制了基于KLM滤波的夏季长江下游强降水频数气候预测模型。结果表明,存在3个显著的相关区:北极附近,北太平洋中纬度和南半球高纬度地区。用这些前期12~2月全球平流层关键区的纬向风建立KLM预测模型进行预测试验,发现它对近10年6~8月长江下游地区强降水频数的变化具有较好的预测能力,明显优于多变量的线性回归预测;其中与北极附近和南半球高纬度地区平流层纬向风相关稳定,而与北太平洋中纬度纬向风的相关存在一定程度的不稳定。基于平流层环流变化的夏季长江下游强降水频数KLM模型可以为短期气候预测业务预报提供重要参考。     

我国长江中下游地区降水变化趋势分析

利用1951—2001年10个代表站的逐日降水观测资料，运用线性趋势法分析了51年来长江中下游地区年和季的降水量、降水日数和降水强度的变化趋势，用Mann—Kendall法对降水日数和降水强度的突变进行了检验，并对日降水量分级别讨论了各等级对总降水量贡献的变化趋势．分析表明：（1）该区域年降水量变化趋势不明显，但春季和夏季降水量分别有显著减少和增加的趋势；（2）除夏季外，其余各季和年的降水日数均为显著减少，且年降水日数减少的突变发生在1977—1978年之间；（3）由于年降水量的微弱增加和年降水日数的显著减少，导致年降水强度的显著增加，且年降水强度的突变发生在20世纪80年代中期；（4）年降水强度增加主要是由于暴雨（日降水量≥50．0mm）对降水总量贡献的增加，而暴雨对降水总量贡献的增加又是由于其对降水日数贡献的增加，因为暴雨本身强度的变化趋势不显著．     

Linkage between winter sea surface temperature east of Australia and summer precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and a possible physical mechanism

The relationship between winter sea surface temperature (SST) east of Australia and summer precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and a possibly related physical mechanism were investigated using observation data. It is found that winter SST east of Australia is correlated positively to summer precipitation in the Yangtze River valley. When the SST east of Australia becomes warmer in winter, the western Pacific subtropical high and the East Asian westerly jet tend to shift southward the following summer, concurrent with low-level southwesterly anomalies over eastern China. These conditions favor precipitation increase in the Yangtze River valley, whereas the opposite conditions favor precipitation decrease. The influence of winter SST east of Australia on East Asian summer atmospheric circulations may occur in two ways. First, by an anomalous SST signal east of Australia in winter that persists through the following summer, thus affecting East Asian atmospheric circulations via the inter-hemispheric teleconnection. Second, when the SST east of Australia is warmer in winter, higher SST appears simultaneously in the southwest Indian Ocean and subsequently develops eastward by local air-sea interaction. As a result, the SST in the Maritime Continent increases in summer, which may lead to an anomalous change in East Asian summer atmospheric circulations through its impact on convection.     

A subfossil chironomid-total phosphorus inference model for lakes in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

Quantitative environmental reconstruction using subfossil chironomid has attracted much attention in recent years[1]. Consisting of about 400 genera, chi- ronomids (Diptera: Chironomidae) are found in nearly all freshwater bodies[2]. They are holometabolo…     

SHRIMP zircon U-Pb dating for volcanic rocks of the Dasi Formation in southeast Hubei Province, middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River and its implications

The Jinniu Basin in southeast Hubei,located at the westernmost part of middle-lower val-ley of the Yangtze River,is one of the important vol-canic basins in East China. Volcanic rocks in the Jin-niu Basin are distributed mainly in the Majiashan Formation,the Lingxiang Formation and the Dasi Formation,consisting of rhyolite,basalt and basaltic andesite,(trachy)-basalt and basaltic trachy-andesite and (trachy)-andesite and (trachy)-dacite and rhyolite respectively,in which the Dasi volcanism is volumet-rically dominant and widespread. The Dasi volcanic rocks were selected for SHRIMP zircon U-Pb dating to confirm the timing of volcanism. The results indi-cate that there exist a large amount of magmatic zir-cons characterized by high U and Th contents in the volcanic rocks. The concordia ages for 13 points are 128 ± 1Ma (MSWD = 3.0). On account of the shape of zircons and Th/U ratios,this age is considered to represent the crystallization time of the Dasi volcan-ism. The volcanic rocks in the Dasi,Majiashan and Lingxiang Formations share similar trace elementand REE partition patterns as well as Sr-Nd isotopic compositions. In combination with the regional geol-ogy,it is proposed that the southeast Hubei volcanic rocks were formed mainly during the Early Creta-ceous,just like other volcanic basins in middle-lower Yangtze valley. A lithospheric extension is also sug-gested for tectonic regime in this region in the Cre-taceous Period.     

长江港口之间的贸易模型

建立了一个模拟长江各港口之间贸易、竞争和进化的经济发展模型，用该模型进行数值模拟得到的各港口年吞吐量呈现幂函数累计分布，与实际统计结果符合，假设任意一个港口或最重要的一个港口受灾，模拟显示整个网络具有良好的应变能力，使得各港口年吞吐量反而略有增加，或者虽然略有降低但可很快恢复，这可能说明我国的市场模式正在健康发展。     

长江流域水土保持与三峡工程

当前长江流域最严重的生态环境问题就是水土流失造成的山穷水害、湖泊湿地衰减、水旱灾害及生态危机。分析、研究了水土流失概况;论证了水土保持与湖泊湿地之间的消长关系;探讨了三峡水利工程与流域水土保持的有关问题。     

Large-scale atmospheric singularities and summer long-cycle droughts-floods abrupt alternation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

The summer droughts and floods in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (MLYRV) have often been one of the basic contents of the pre- cipitation forecasting during the flooding period in China. Lots of studies suggest that summer rainfa…     

1960—2005年长江上游水文循环变化特征

对长江上游水汽含量以及各边界水汽通量、水汽收支的变化特征进行分析,建立了长江上游水文循环概念模型,并通过分析水循环参数的变化特征讨论水文循环的陆面分支与大气分支之间的相互作用和变化过程.结果表明:长江上游为水汽汇区,净水汽收支为23 790 t/s;纬向为水汽输出向,纬向水汽通量减小趋势显著.整个上游地区水汽收支变化趋势不显著,水汽输入总体呈微弱减小趋势.尽管当地蒸散发形成的降水在区域总降水量中的贡献尚不足10%,但蒸散发量对当地水文循环的作用正逐年增加.     

基于三阶段DEA模型的长江中游城市群创新效率研究

以长江中游城市群28个地级市为研究对象,运用三阶段数据包络分析（DEA）模型测度并分析长江中游城市群2005—2018年的创新效率及其时空演化特征,采用地理加权回归（GWR）模型揭示创新效率空间差异的影响因子及其空间异质性.结果显示：长江中游城市群创新效率呈现两段式特征,2005—2010年为平稳发展期,2011—2018年为波动变化期;“一圈二群”创新发展趋势尚不明朗,目前还处于创新发展的初级阶段;长江中游城市群2005—2018年创新效率空间分异显著,整体上呈现“发散-聚敛-发散”的特征;经济基础（ECO）、产业结构（INDU）、外商投资（FDI）、政府支持（GOV）以及基础设施建设（BAS）对长江中游城市群创新发展的驱动模式存在较大差异,具有明显的空间分异性.     

Large and meso-α scale characteristics of intense rainfall in the mid — and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

Meteorological conditions associated with intense rainfall and great floods over mid- and lower reaches of Yangtze River are studied by analyzing the large-, synopticand meso-tα-scale circulation systems for 1991, 1996 and 1998. It is found that the advance and retreat of subtropical high over the West Pacific, the monsoon moisture surge from the South China Sea, cold air outbreak over mid- and high-latitudes, and the meso- tα scale systems (250-2500 km)from the Tibetan Pleateau as well, are responsible for intense rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley. The persistent and heavy rains and great floods over the Yangtze River Valley occurred when all these four systems are synergetic or in phase lock.``     

长江中下游的河床纵剖面演变分析及预测

为预测长江中下游河床纵剖面的演变趋势,利用最小能耗率理论计算了该江段的平衡河床纵剖面,研究了这些河段河床演变规律及其未来的变化。分析了长江水库拦沙、河道采砂、近期水沙变化、未来引水及需水量增长等因素。结果表明,长江中下游河床纵剖面还未达到动态平衡,大部分江段以淤积为主。在没有人类活动影响下,达到动态平衡还需要很长一段时间。由于引水和需水量的增长,未来长江中下游达到动态平衡需要淤积更多的泥沙。     

Relationship between precipitation and the infiltration depth over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley

The purpose of the paper is to extract and make the best use of rainfall information contained in the Chinese historical archives of Qing Dynasty, and reconstruct the precipitation series during 1736-1911. The study followed the Yu-Fen-Cun （rainfall infiltration depth） observation method in Qing Dynasty, to conduct soil infiltration experiment under the natural rainfall conditions during 2004-2006. The related parameters, such as precipitation, intensity, initial soil moisture content and infiltration depth have been measured at 10 stations （east of 105°E, 30°-40°N） with representative climatic conditions and soil physical texture in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley. The statistical results indicate that precipitation is the primary influencing factor to infiltration depth and is positively correlated with the infiltration depth. Additionally, the effects of every factor on infiltration depth are significantly different between the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley. Finally, the relationship equations of precipitation and infiltration depth are established for each site, most of which can pass over 60% of the variance explanations and provide quantitative models to reconstruct the precipitation series using Yu-Fen-Cun records in Qing Dynasty.     

长江中下游河流沉积物磁性特征初探

通过多参数磁性测量分析,探讨长江中下游干、支流河流沉积物的磁性特征,为研究长江水沙环境积累基础资料.研究结果表明,长江中下游干、支流河流沉积物中,磁性矿物类别均以磁铁矿为主,晶粒均以假单畴-多畴为主.与干流相比,支流沉积物中不完整反铁磁性物质含量较多,晶粒较细,Χ值仅是干流的1/10.随着支流泥沙的汇入,入江口以下江段沉积物的磁性特征相应发生变化.支流泥沙物源贡献的研究是探讨长江中下游干流沉积物环境特征的主要因子.     

汾河中段降水出现新特征

利用汾河流域中段年月平均降水量资料,分析了四季的降水特征、年际变化和变化趋势。     

长江小黄洲演变对下游汊道分流特性的影响

在长江小黄洲汊道水流特性和河床演变特点分析的基础上,结合二维水流数学模型计算成果进行小黄洲演变对下游新济洲汊道段影响研究。结果表明:小黄洲汊道的演变对下游新济洲汊道段的水流特性有明显影响,在现状河道条件下,若小黄洲左汊衰退,可导致新生洲、新济洲左汊衰退,新潜洲左汊发展;若小黄洲左汊进一步发展,可导致新生洲、新济洲左汊发展,但对新潜洲左汊影响较小。     

长江下游段岸线保护范围界定研究

为了推进长江岸线保护的精细化管理和规划,初步探索了长江下游段岸线保护范围的界定方法。结合《中华人民共和国长江保护法》和河湖岸线保护相关文献、标准及法规,综合考虑水利行业河道岸线行政管理范围和“河岸线河岸带缓冲带”保护范围,提出了长江下游段岸线保护范围界定与规划方法,指出长江岸线河岸带和缓冲带范围需综合考虑岸线生态、水文功能和后方陆域利用方式予以界定。对扬州段长江岸线界定结果表明,提出的岸线保护界定方法具有较好的可操作性,与现行岸线管理办法有较好的关联性,可用于长江下游段岸线保护范围的界定。