中国西南秋季旱涝的诊断分析

为了分析中国西南秋季旱涝情况,利用西南地区东部1961~2012年的降水资料和区域旱涝指数对该地区秋季旱涝等级进行了评定,并运用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料与英国气象局海温资料对典型旱涝年的成因进行了探讨。结果表明,西南地区东部降水呈显著减少趋势,并在1990年左右发生了突变。旱年秋季,低层在南中国海附近为显著的气旋性环流异常,西南地区上空存在显著的下沉运动,涝年则相反。进一步分析发现,当西太平洋海温偏高时,可以激发罗斯贝波环流异常,对应在南中国海附近存在异常的气旋性环流,临近的西南地区东部处于异常的下沉气流控制,容易发生干旱,涝年则相反。此外,热带西太平洋海温于20世纪80年代中后期发生了由冷转暖的突变,这与随后西南地区东部秋季降水的突变密切相关。     

关中地区旱涝灾害研究

采用关中地区渭南杨刘村、西安肖家村和宝鸡九龙泉3个观测站20世纪50－70年代气温、降水资料和90年代旱涝灾害资料，分析了该地区旱涝灾害的类型、发生规律及其与降水、气温之间的关系。结果表明，春旱、春夏连旱、秋旱、夏涝、夏秋涝是关中地区主要的旱涝灾害类型；旱灾的发生具有10年左右的周期，涝灾的发生具有5年左右的周期；50－70年代关中地区涝灾偏多，气温偏低；冬季偏寒常易出现来年夏旱，冬季偏暖常易出现来年夏涝；90年代的旱灾增多，尤以秋旱为特征。     

530年来陕北气候变化与东部地区关系分析

目的 研究陕北地区历史旱涝变化、气温变化及与东部地区的关系，对保护和治理陕北地区生态环境提供可靠依据。方法 利用我国500多年旱涝资料及50a气温资料，运用功率谱方法及小波分析法分析陕北及其东部地区历史上发生的旱涝周期及气温变化。结果 不同地区530a来均呈旱涝交替变化，且存在一定的周期性。从上世纪80年代中后期陕北开始进入偏暖少雨期，气温具有13a，2～4a左右的周期。结论 陕北历史旱涝存在明显的阶段性变化，气温变化具有周期性，异于其他地区。     

湖北防旱治涝减少农业气象灾害的对策研究

影响湖北农业的气象灾害主要是旱灾涝灾．针对湖北早涝灾害防治存在的问题．进行了对策研究．认为有必要加强水资源保护．重视生态环境建设：有针对性地加强对江汉平原洪涝灾害与鄂北岗地干旱的重点研究与防治,特别是对最大可能灾害的预测和风险评估．实施跨流域治理。     

东北地区建国以来洪涝灾害时空分布规律研究

东北区尤其是松辽流域洪涝灾害频繁,是全国主要的洪涝灾害发生区之一.利用东北区1950—1990年洪涝灾害相关资料,以暴雨引起的洪涝灾害为研究对象,根据洪水灾害的发生学理论,从自然和人文两个方面分析了东北地区洪涝灾害的形成原因;在此基础上统计分析了建国以来东北地区洪涝灾害发生的时空特点和分布规律,并提出了东北区减轻或避免洪涝灾害的主要相关措施.     

长江中游地区近年夏季旱涝异常的大气环流差异

以长江中游夏季1998年特大洪涝和2000年异常干旱为实例,对500hPa月平均高度场,极涡,阻塞高压,西太平洋副热带高压强度,面积指数等因子,进行同期大气环流特征对比分析,结果表明,1998年和2000年夏季东亚地区从北到南大气环流具有显著差异。     

东北区旱涝灾害特征分析及趋势预测

利用东北区1751～2000年旱涝灾害资料,分析了该区近250年来旱涝灾害演变的特征.根据气象因素和旱涝灾害的关系,引入了转移概率、太阳黑子相对数和厄尔尼诺方法,导出了未来旱涝灾害预报的方法和公式,对该区2001～2010年旱涝灾害趋势作了预测.结果显示,20世纪东北区旱涝灾害较以前都有所加重,尤其是干旱灾害.2001～2010年东北区会出现2次以上的干旱和1～2次的洪涝灾害,且2007年左右是发生洪涝灾害的危险期.该项研究为东北区实际防灾、减灾工作提供了参考.     

近40年中国北方农牧交错带气候时空分异特征

目的探讨中国北方农牧交错带气候时空分异特征。方法采用定量方法,分析近40年气温、降水的年与季节的变化特征及气候变化趋势;借助于GIS空间分析技术探讨研究区气候类型与气候时空分异特征。结果通过对气温、降水及气候类型的分析,得出研究区气候各因子及气候的空间分布规律。结论①中国北方农牧交错带包括7种气候类型,东、中、西部分别以中温带森林草原气候、暖温带大陆性森林草原气候和温带草原气候为主;②中国北方农牧交错带气温近40年有升高的趋势,冬季和夏季气温增加,春秋两季气温变化不大;③中国北方农牧交错带降水有减少的趋势,秋季降水减少明显,冬季降水基本不变,夏季和春季降水波动较大;④研究区气候变化在空间上可以划分为三大区域和4种类型。     

近百年来长江洪水变化的初步分析

采用水文时间系列的逐项分析法,统计分析了近百年来长江洪水变化的总体趋势与主要周期,发现近百年来长江洪水变化存在增大的总体趋势,并有４０ａ,３５ａ等主要周期变化。这与近百年气候的趋暖性变化及太阳活动的周期性强弱变化有关。     

城市防汛指挥信息管理系统的设计

建设城市防汛防旱指挥信息管理系统是新形势下的防洪工作的必要手段．从系统设计的角度出发，对系统的整体方案设计进行了分析和研究，并提出了一套切实可行的系统设计方案。     

咸阳市近代渭河洪水演变研究

根据咸阳渭河河漫滩沉积野外调查和40个样品的颗粒分析资料，研究了咸阳渭河距今约100年以来洪水深度、洪水变化阶段和气候变化．资料表明，咸阳渭河约100年来河漫滩厚度为2．1m左右，主要由粗粉砂和极细砂构成，包括15个明显的沉积层，粗细分层变化明显．这15个沉积层清楚地反映了15个明显的大洪水阶段，其中以第13、12阶段洪水规模最大，第11、6阶段洪水规模最小．与1000年前洪水相比，近100年来洪水规模在减小，指示降水在减少，气候在向干旱变化．     

Glacier changes during the last forty years in the Tarim Interior River basin, northwest China

By comparing digitized glacier outlines from the Chinese Glacier Inventory (CGI) during the 1960s–1970s and Landsat Enhance Thematic Mapper (ETM+) images from 1999 to 2001, we investigated changes for about 7665 alpine glaciers among 11665 glaciers in seven sub-basins of the Tarim Interior River basin (TIRB). The results showed that the total glacier area was reduced by 3.3% from the 1960s/ 1970s to 1999/2001 and area losses for 1–5 km2 glaciers accounted for 48.3% of the total glacier area loss in the TIRB. However, the glacier area reductions varied from 0.7% to 7.9% among the seven sub-basins of the TIRB during the study period. The glacier area changing with altitude showed that the maximum contribution of area shrinkage occurred at 4900–5400 m. Data from 25 meteorological stations in the TIRB showed increases in both the annual mean air temperature and annual precipitation during 1960–2000. This indicates that the glacier shrinkage in the TIRB over the last 40 years was largely due to regional climate warming that enhanced glacier ablation and overcame the effects of increased precipitation on the glacier mass balance.     

近20年苏北地区城镇空间扩展遥感监测与分析

采用多时相卫星遥感影像数据,计算城镇用地扩展强度和扩展速度指数,通过空间关联模型和多元线性回归分析方法,定量揭示了区域城镇空间扩展特征的多样性、空间组织异质性和热点区格局演化.研究发现:1990年代以来,苏北地区城镇空间扩展是以中心城市集聚为主导的空间过程,中心城市的主导地位逐渐加强,各中心城市之间差距逐渐缩小,次级中心城市的集聚作用开始显现,城镇用地空间分布趋于分散.在城镇空间扩展的驱动力上1990~2000年为人口增长驱动型,主要表现为人口增长和人均GDP增加;2000~2010年为工业增长驱动型,主要表现为区域生产总值和人均GDP增加.此外,苏南产业转移加快了苏北城镇空间一体化进程.     

Simulated analysis of summer climate on centennial time scale in eastern China during the last millennium

Using Lanczos filtered simulation results from the ECHO-G coupled ocean-atmosphere model, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal structure of temperature and precipitation on centennial time scale to examine how climate change in eastern China responded to external forcing during the last millennium. The conclusions are (1) eastern China experienced a warm-cold-warm climate transition, and the transition from the warm period to the cold period was slower than the cold to warm transition which followed it. There was more rainfall in the warm periods, and the transitional peak and valley of precipitation lag those of temperature. The effective solar radiation and solar irradiance have significant impacts on the temporal variation of both temperature and precipitation. Volcanic activity plays an important role in the sudden drop of temperature before the Present Warm Period (PWP). There is a positive correlation between precipitation and volcanic activity before 1400 A.D., and a negative relationship between the two thereafter. The concentration of greenhouse gases increases in the PWP, and the temperature and precipitation increase accordingly. (2) The spatial pattern of the first leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of temperature on centennial time scale is consistent with that on the inter-annual/inter-decadal (IA-ID) time scales; namely, the entirety of eastern China is of the same sign. This pattern has good coherence with effective solar radiation and the concentrations of greenhouse gases. The first leading EOF mode of precipitation on centennial time scale is totally different from that on the IA-ID time scales. The first leading mode of centennial time scale changes consistently over the entirety of eastern China, while the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers are the opposite to the rest of eastern China is the leading spatial pattern on IA-ID time scale. The distribution of precipitation on centennial time scale is affected by solar irradiance and greenhouse gas concentrations.     

中国北方中部地区近五十年气温和降水的变化趋势

基于中国北方中部地区150个气象站点的气象数据,对该地区近50年来气温和降水量的倾向率及其空间分布运用线性趋势分析和空间插值等方法进行分析.结果表明:该地区气温在近50年呈现出整体上升趋势,且2月份的升温最为显著;气温变化趋势的分布格局上,东南部升温速率较西北部低;平均最低气温上升趋势明显,对气温升高的贡献率较大;降水量呈下降趋势,下降区域主要集中在35~40°N之间,且主要与7、8月份降水量减少有关.     

Reconstruction of the spatial patterns of desert/loess boundary belt in North China during the Holocene

The desert/loess boundary belt is the transi-tional region between desert and loess, where aeolian sandand loess interlock in space and alternate in time. It, being seriously unstable in space-time, sensitive to climatic changes and with fragile ecological environment, is an ideal region for studying the global climate change. There are deposi-tional sequences of paleosol with sub-horizontal interbedded aeolian sand and loess, and the stratigraphical evidences show that there widely exist 3—4 layers paleosol in sand lands of northeastern China, 4—5 layers in Mu Us Sandy Land and Hunshandake Sandy Land, more than 4 layers in the Qinghai Lake region and the Gonghe Basin of Qinghai Province during the Holocene. These indicate that the desert has experienced several times of extending and compacting, along with which the desert/loess boundary belt vibrated. It possesses good coherence with global climate change and eustasy. The coherence shows that the monsoon change in East Asia is the primary driving factor for the swing of desert/loess boundary belt. Besides, human influence con-stantly intensified the swing of the belt, especially in the south of Mu Us Sandy Land during the 2000—3000 aBP.     

乌鲁木齐河流域景观空间格局与水资源关系研究

流域景观的研究是景观生态学特别是水文生态学研究的一个非常重要的方面，流域景观的空间结构与河流的地理结构及形成具有密切的关系，在其中下游则明显受到人类高度调节和强化了的人类活动的影响，其格局带有明显的人为作用，将乌鲁木齐河流域景观分为20个景观类型，对流域景观生态空间格局的基本特点，景观嵌块体类型及人类活动和自然的关系进行分析，研究表明，景观中植被的丰富与降水呈正相关，随着人类活动的另剧，景观多样性加大，均匀性，破碎度值较大；人为活动已 变了流域下游局地景观特性，人类对流域景观的利用与管理结果是水分过度利用，荒漠化加剧，流域景观研究中应注重景观效益与水资源的合理利用，景观生态风险，并应适时进行动态监测。     

近54年华北平原干旱时空变化特征及其影响因素

利用帕尔默干旱指数(The Palmer Drought Severity Index,PDSI),辅以经验正交分解(Empirical Orthogonal Function,EOF)、趋势分析和相关分析等方法,全面分析了1960—2013年华北平原干旱时空变化特征,并对其影响因素进行了研究.结果表明:1)近54a华北平原PDSI并无显著变化趋势,而呈阶段性变化特征.分区研究表明,海河平原PDSI呈下降趋势,而淮河平原PDSI呈上升趋势;2)华北平原PDSI具有显著的空间差异特征,整体呈由东南向西北逐渐减小的趋势.EOF分析显示,研究区PDSI最主要的空间分布型为南北反向型分布,且干旱变化具有持续性;3)在趋势上,华北平原呈现显著的"南涝北旱"格局特征,其中北部海河平原PDSI呈下降趋势,而南部淮河平原PDSI则呈增加趋势;4)华北平原和黄河平原PDSI与南方涛动指数(SOI)和西太平洋副高北界(WPSHNB)关系显著,而淮河平原与东亚夏季风指数(EASMI)和西太平洋副高强度(WPSHS)具有显著相关性,海河平原仅与SOI达到显著的正相关关系,且随着时间尺度的变长,PDSI与各环流指数的相关性提高.年代际尺度上,华北平原PDSI主要与SOI关系显著.     

Reconstruction of flood events over the last 150 years in the lower reaches of the Changjiang River

The reconstruction of paleofloods in the Holocene has become one research highlight for the present global change study. The core sediments from one newly-emerged bar in the lower Changjiang River (Yangtze River) mainstream were collected for grain size and organic elemental measurements, with aim to reconstruct the flood events over the past 150 years. Major grain size parameters such as mean grain size, probability cumulative curve and C-M diagram of the core sediments clearly indicate the flood event deposition. Furthermore, the TOC/TN ratios in the sediments can indicate flood events considering that during the flash floods, strong surface erosion in the upper and lower reaches of the Changjiang River can transport a large amount of undecomposed plant debris and organic components with relatively low C/N ratios into the lower mainstream. Based on 210Pb dating and sedimentary geochemical results, the research profile recorded several large floods happened from 1850 to 1954, which agrees well with the historical documents and hydrological observations. Interesting to note that the flood events since the 1960s cannot be distinctly recognized on the basis of sediment grain size and organic elemental compositions of the profile, which mainly reflects the intensive human activities over the last fifty years, especially condense dam construction, have significantly changed the characters of suspended sediment into the lower mainstream.     

Regional difference of aridity/ humidity conditions change over China during the last thirty years

Scientists have found that the global average surface temperature has increased by 0.6±0.2℃ since the late 19th century based on various evidence[1]. From the 1980s, temperature has experienced the most rapid warming to an extent of abrupt change statistically[2,3]. Global warming has attracted extensive attention from multiple depart-ments and has been an important issue related to global politics. Many scientific communities have made great efforts on climate change research and global env…