AN APPROACH TO RESOLVE CONFLICTS BY TRADE-OFF ANALYSIS

In this paper we propose an approach to resolve the conflicts in which more thantwo parties are allowable.It is a refinement and extension of Lootsma's pairwise comparisonmethod for resolution of conflicts.The trade-offs of benefits and costs are judged in verbalterms which are subsequently converted into numerical values on a discrete geometric scale.Three schemes are suggested for supporting a mediator to recommend an appropriate dealto all the parties.We also present a procedure to estimate the trade-offs of the compositedeals.The approach is illustrated via the example of a market scramble.     

从观察数据确定李雅普诺夫指数谱算法的一种改进

由观察数据计算李雅普诺夫指数谱，一个重要的方法是用多项式拟合系统内在的动力学映射，该法得到的结果精度高，但计算量很大。本文通过简化公式降低了计算中所用矩阵的阶数，有效地减少了计算量，对混沌信号数据的实时处理有实际意义。     

Comparative Analysis and Fuzzy Selection of Information System Development Approach

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组织描述方法研究

概括了组织描述研究的方法和理论 ,分析了这一研究领域的难点和重点 ,并在计算组织适应性理论和分阶段设计理论基础上提出了一种组织的分层描述思想 ,定义组织核心元素 :组织、目标、决策实体、平台和环境 ,以及四个链接 (平台 -任务链接、决策实体 -平台链接、决策实体间链接以及组织 -环境链接 ) ,通过这五个元素和四个链接来描述组织模型和组织行为 ,基于这一思想对组织适应性过程给出了数学描述 .     

A Game Theory Approach of Deposit Insurance

1　IntroductionIn the European and American developed countries,there is an effective method to dealwith the deposit risk of the commerical bank— deposit insurance system ,which plays ansignificant role to protect the depositors′ interests,strengthens the supervision to thecommerical bank,keeps away and eliminates the deposit risk.Nowadays,China has notdistinctly founded such a system of deposit insurance.Generally speaking,eachcommerical bank,which is subordinated by the national central b…     

CCR模型中决策单元的区间效率值及其排序

CCR模型中,决策单元的效率值为输出的加权平均与输入的加权平均比值的最大值,而本文则认为所有可能的输出的加权平均与输入的加权平均比值都是可能的效率值,因此决策单元的效率值为一区间.基于交叉效率方法,本文得出了决策单元的区间效率值并进行了排序.所得出的区间效率值不仅比传统的点效率值更加全面地反映决策单元的表现,而且由于交叉效率方法的自互评本质,它比已有的区间效率构建方法更加合理、可信.文末给出了一个算例.     

双论域上的直觉模糊概率粗糙集模型及其应用

基于一个直觉模糊关系,给出了双论域上的直觉模糊概率粗糙集模型的定义,同时也给出了逆下近似、上近似算子的概念. 研究了它们的若干性质,为粗糙集的应用提供了新的理论基础与操作手段.最后,通过在临床诊断系统中的具体应用阐述了本文提出的直觉模糊概率粗糙集模型的有效性和优越性.     

基于ADRC的经济增长分析

中国经济目前位于高储蓄、低消费的发展路径,如何安排合适的经济转型路径,使得经济走向长期最优均衡,具有重要的现实意义.然而,由于经济系统的复杂性,人们很难运用基于受控对象精确信息的控制方法来设计合理的增长路径.自抗扰控制(ADRC)是一种独立于模型的误差反馈控制方法,其自然地反映了理性人的决策思维.本文首先对比了当经济增长模型的均衡解存在显示表达式时,运用ADRC与最优控制这两种不同方法所取得的控制效果.研究表明,ADRC有助于合理安排经济发展路径以降低效用损失.如果再考虑到经济周期、技术进步等因素对经济带来的影响,此时通过最优控制方法就只能获得均衡解的稳态值.本文以稳态资本存量作为参考目标,运用ADRC对此进行分析.结果表明,ADRC仍然可以给出较优的经济发展路径,使得经济在"稳与快"间保持平衡,引导经济走向长期稳态均衡.     

An Action Design Research Approach within Enterprise Engineering

Enterprise engineering (EE) is emerging as a new discipline that is multi-disciplinary in nature. As highlighted by researchers within the EE discipline, the current status of EE endeavours as taken by several universities is unclear, which led to several initiatives and publications to develop a research agenda within the enterprise engineering research community. This article builds upon existing work aimed at establishing EE as a discipline, also accepting the epistemological stance of idealism, pragmatism and existential phenomenology as argued by Hoogervorst as an appropriate stance for EE research, prior to suggesting action design research (ADR) as an appropriate research method for EE research. More so, the article presents an Action Design Research within Enterprise Engineering (ADR-in-EE) approach as the main contribution to guide prospective EE researchers towards research within the EE discipline. The ADR-in-EE approach is based on ADR, but provides additional guidance by incorporating the use of an Enterprise Evolution Contextualisation Model, as well as creativity facilitation in the form of Univation’s brainstorming method. As a second contribution, we experiment with the ADR-in-EE approach and use a survey to extract feedback on the usefulness of the approach. The research findings are mostly positive, with qualitative feedback on further improving ADR-in-EE approach.     

一种再制造物流网络设施定位优化方法

针对包含正向和逆向的再制造物流网络,提出一种由3种设施组成的2层物流设施定位优化方法,并给出0-1整数规划模型.基于遗传算法的全局搜索能力,全面考虑了正向流和逆向流及其它们之间的相互约束处理,避免了传统拉格朗日启发式算法中求上下限的繁琐计算过程.仿真实验表明提出方法的有效性.     

基于MapX的多星协同对区域目标观测的预处理方法

预处理是多星协同对区域目标观测调度过程的一个重要组成部分,为建模与求解提供若干备选的元任务,其核心内容是区域目标分解和时间窗口计算.根据卫星轨道特征和星载遥感器的观测能力,提出了卫星对区域目标观测的动态分解方法.通过分析卫星观测范围与区域目标的空间几何关系,提出了卫星对区域目标观测的时间窗口计算方法.算例表明,基于卫星观测能力的区域目标动态分解方法能够提高多星协同观测效率,实验结果验证了基于MapX的时间窗口计算方法的有效性.     

CONFLICT ANALYSIS OF CITARUM RIVER BASIN POLLUTION IN INDONESIA： A DRAMA-THEORETIC MODEL

The need to manage water resource within a holistic approach is crucial in Indonesia. Conflict situation which involves a variety of stakeholder needs an appropriate methodology to handle it. The purpose of this paper is to provide an integrated framework of a river basin pollution case in Indonesia. This research try to obtain an understanding of the complexity of inter-relationship between stakeholders of the Citarum River Basin and to give feasible recommendations based on a new developed integrated framework. We first describe the problem in a comprehensive way, then develop a framework to analyze the conflict. Next, we propose a general procedure to apply it, which we call Drama-theoretic Dilemma Analysis (DtDA). After analyzing the conflicts that arise there between stakeholders using DtDA, we will show how to resolve the dilemmas by using holistic as well as intensive approaches. By applying DtDA in stakeholder analysis and resolving the dilemmas that arise in the interactions between them, we can identify barriers for collaboration.     

基于前景理论的勾股模糊多属性决策

针对属性值为勾股模糊数,属性权重未知的多属性决策问题,提出一种基于前景理论的决策方法.首先考虑了犹豫度对隶属度和非隶属度的不同影响,本文将勾股模糊数转换成勾股模糊数直角三角形,并提出了基于勾股模糊数直角三角形几何中心距离测度.利用前景理论,以双参考点的选择均衡综合前景值,构建前景决策矩阵.结合前景决策矩阵及属性权重,计算各方案的综合前景值,并以此对方案进行排序.最后通过实例验证该方法的实用性和有效性.     

Holism and Understanding Sustainability

In work undertaken in both Malta and Lebanon we have been reflecting on the current means by which the international community apply concepts intended to achieve what is called “sustainable development.” In an attempt to make means and ends conform to each other we have developed a holistic approach to what is essentially a timeless need for understanding, systemic planning, and compassionate stewardship. This essay indicates that we may be closer to holistic means with which to realize these goals than we know. It describes how some planning and analysis methods have their origins in ancient traditions. However, the milieu in which sustainability occurs is often unsympathetic to and sometimes incompatible with the ideals of holism. The essay assesses the current understanding of sustainability and points to the need for a wider and more inclusive base to contemporary sustainability as practiced in the community.     

A Model-Free Method for Structual Change Detection Multivariate Nonlinear Time Series

1 .MOTIVATIONANDINTRODUCTIONRecently ,therehavebeenseveralnewtheoreticalre sultsforstationaryandnonstationarydynamicmod els ,nonlinearregressionmodel,simultaneousequa tionandEulerequationmodels.JournalofEconometrics( 1 996) publishedaspe cialvolumetobringtogetherahostofpapers,whichreflectsthediversityoftherecentdevelopmentsonthissubject.Thisvolumeismainlyfocusedonthefollowingaspects:finite sampletestsofparameterconstancyagainstthepresenceofstructuralchange,asymptotic proceduresformod…     

企业战略研究的系统方法论

首先通过分析系统的最重要但常常被忽视的特征来深入理解系统概念,给出在实践中把握系统概念的具有可操作性的途径; 通过知识论域体系、系统方法论的系统以及全面系统干预元方法论,进一步理解系统方法论的概念以及在实践中应用系统方法论的途径. 然后基于对系统和系统方法论概念的上述理解和企业战略研究的诸多学派,提出了一个企业战略研究的系统方法论,并详细介绍了 一个案例,在案例中还对定位学派的具体的研究方法论做了拓展.最后指出企业战略研究的系统方法论是选择众多企业战略研究方法 论的元方法论,可用于各种问题情境下的企业战略研究,而且其应用系统思考的途径还可以推广应用于企业管理的其它领域.     

基于分离BDD的通用多阶段任务系统可靠性分析

静态的通用多阶段任务系统的不完全覆盖、跨阶段依赖性极大地增加系统可靠性分析的复杂性和难度.基于SEA思想给出两级分离的组合方法将任务和阶段的不完全覆盖分割, 通过新增的阶段代数规则和向后阶段依赖运算式处理跨阶段依赖性,并且充分利用高效的多阶段系统双值决策图,实现模型规模和运算的简化.最后,通过案例分析, 将此分离BDD方法与三值决策图和多状态双值决策图对比, 验证其精确、高效和模块化的优点.     

SIMPLE COMPUTING OF THE CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE:A FIXED LOCAL-OPTIMAL POLICY APPROACH

In this paper,we present a new method for finding a fixed local-optimal policy for computing the customer lifetime value.The method is developed for a class of ergodic controllable finite Markov chains.We propose an approach based on a non-converging state-value function that fluctuates（increases and decreases） between states of the dynamic process.We prove that it is possible to represent that function in a recursive format using a one-step-ahead fixed-optimal policy.Then,we provide an analytical formula for the numerical realization of the fixed local-optimal strategy.We also present a second approach based on linear programming,to solve the same problem,that implement the c-variable method for making the problem computationally tractable.At the end,we show that these two approaches are related：after a finite number of iterations our proposed approach converges to same result as the linear programming method.We also present a non-traditional approach for ergodicity verification.The validity of the proposed methods is successfully demonstrated theoretically and,by simulated credit-card marketing experiments computing the customer lifetime value for both an optimization and a game theory approach.     

A partial robust optimization approach to inventory management for the offline-to-online problem under different selling prices

This study examines an optimal inventory strategy when a retailer markets a product at different selling prices through a dual-channel supply chain, comprising an online channel and an offline channel. Using the operating pattern of the offline-to-online (O2O) business model, we develop a partial robust optimization (PRO) model. Then, we provide a closed-form solution when only the mean and standard deviation of the online channel demand distribution is known and the offline channel demand follows a uniform distribution (partial robust). Specifically, owing to the good structural properties of the solution, we obtain a heuristic ordering formula for the general distribution case (i.e., the offline channel demand follows a general distribution). In addition, a series of numerical experiments prove the rationality of our conjecture. Moreover, after comparing our solution with other possible policies, we conclude that the PRO approach improves the performance of incorporating the internet into an existing supply chain and, thus, is able to adjust the level of conservativeness of the solution. Finally, in a degenerated situation, we compare our PRO approach with a combination of information approach. The results show that the PRO approach has more “robust” performance. As a result, a reasonable trade-off between robustness and performance is achieved.