中国地区凝结尾数值模拟分析

为了解中国地区凝结尾发生的时空分布特征和环境特征,按照Schmidt–Appleman标准,建立凝结尾发生模型,并基于全国大气探空数据,统计分析了2001年至2017年中国地区凝结尾特征。结果表明,近年来凝结尾的发生数量呈增长趋势,其与年平均湿度呈正相关,相关系数达0.96;大兴安岭地区、陕北地区、青海东南和川北地区以及天山地区是中国地区凝结尾高发地区,华南地区是凝结尾发生数量最少的地区;凝结尾发生数量季节差异明显,春夏多,秋冬少;凝结尾发生时环境的平均温度为-35.2℃,平均湿度为50.4%。高度7 000 m至12 000 m范围内凝结尾发生数量占总次数的79.5%;凝结尾在不同高度层发生的概率不同,调整航空器的飞行高度层,可使凝结尾发生数量平均减少24.9%。     

The importance of the diurnal and annual cycle of air traffic for contrail radiative forcing

Air traffic condensation trails, or contrails, are believed to have a net atmospheric warming effect, although one that is currently small compared to that induced by other sources of human emissions. However, the comparably large growth rate of air traffic requires an improved understanding of the resulting impact of aircraft radiative forcing on climate. Contrails have an effect on the Earth's energy balance similar to that of high thin ice clouds. Their trapping of outgoing longwave radiation emitted by the Earth and atmosphere (positive radiative forcing) is partly compensated by their reflection of incoming solar radiation (negative radiative forcing). On average, the longwave effect dominates and the net contrail radiative forcing is believed to be positive. Over daily and annual timescales, varying levels of air traffic, meteorological conditions, and solar insolation influence the net forcing effect of contrails. Here we determine the factors most important for contrail climate forcing using a sophisticated radiative transfer model for a site in southeast England, located in the entrance to the North Atlantic flight corridor. We find that night-time flights during winter (December to February) are responsible for most of the contrail radiative forcing. Night flights account for only 25 per cent of daily air traffic, but contribute 60 to 80 per cent of the contrail forcing. Further, winter flights account for only 22 per cent of annual air traffic, but contribute half of the annual mean forcing. These results suggest that flight rescheduling could help to minimize the climate impact of aviation.     

Variations in equilibrium line altitude of the Qiyi Glacier,Qilian Mountains,over the past 50 years

Based on observations of the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of the Qiyi Glacier in the Qilian Mountain, we established a statistical model between ELA and its major influencing factors, warm season air temperature (air temperature averages for September, July and August) and cold season precipitation (total precipitation in the period January through March). Warm season air temperature was the leading climatic factor influencing ELA variations. The glacier ELA ascends (descends) 172 m when warm season air temperature increases (decreases) by 1°C, and ascends (descends) 62 m when cold season precipitation decreases (increases) by 10%. In the period 1958–2008, the glacier ELA showed a general increasing trend, ascending 230 m and reaching its highest altitude in 2006 at 5131 m a.s.l., close to the glacier summit. If future climate is similar to that in the period 2001–2008, the Qiyi Glacier will not stabilize until it retreats by 2.08 km.     

Temperature Distribution in a Long-Span Aircraft Hangar

Long-span aircraft hangars have features which differ from other large structural systems. The temperature stresses due to temperature variations often greatly impact the mechanical performance of the structure. The paper presents an analysis of the heat transfer processes and factors which influence the temperature distribution. The AMECO-A380 aircraft hangar at the Beijing Capital International Airport was selected as a practical example to illustrate the use of finite volume analysis to calculate the temperature field taking into account meteorological conditions, solar radiation, heat convection, etc. The temperature distribution and the variation of the length of the upper and lower chords of the grid structure roof were analyzed to develop guidelines for the temperature distributions in very large aircraft hangars. The results show that the temperature effect will be large for long-span hangars, and the temperature stresses due to nonuniform temperatures should be analyzed to guarantee the structural safety of large aircraft hangars.     

Change in the body temperature of healthy term infant over the first 72 hours of life

OBJECTIVE: To determine the range of body temperature in a group of healthy Chinese term neonates over the first 72 hours of life and to assess the influence of body weight, gestational age and route of delivery.METHOD: All 200 consecutive cases of neonates delivered at our hospital from March to August 2001 were included in this retrospective study. Temperatures were measured immediately after delivery, after 30 minutes, 1 hour, 2 hours, 8 hours and 15 hours and on the 2nd and 3rd day. Axillary temperatures ranging from 36.5 degrees C to 37 degrees C were regarded as normal. No cases of maternal fever or systemic infection of the newborns were discovered. All infants were discharged in good general condition. RESULTS: The mean rectal temperature at birth was 37.19 degrees C. The lowest average temperature was reached at 1 hour after delivery (36.54 degrees C) with a significant difference between natural delivery (36.48 degrees C) and section (36.59 degrees C) (P<0.05). Temperature subsequently rose to 36.70 degrees C at 8 hours and 36.78 degrees C at 15 hours (P<0.05). Hypothermia was seen in 51.8% and hypothermia in 42.5% of the patients. On the 3rd day after delivery, 96% of all temperatures were in the normal range. A significant relation was found between hypothermia and both low birth weight (P<0.001) and low gestational age (P<0.05). CONCLUSION: The reference range presently used did not include all physiological temperatures in the first 72 hours of life. Considering other factors, such as birth weight, route of delivery, gestational age and body temperature on the 2nd and 3rd day of life, may help to correctly assess the significance of temperatures beyond the reference range.     

Effects of vegetation height and density on soil temperature variations

Reduction in vegetation cover caused by human activities has a great impact on soil temperature. It is important to assess how soil temperature responds to reduction of vegetation height and density. In this paper we first report the trends of mean annual soil surface and air temperatures recorded at the meteorological stations near the Ecological Research Station for Grassland Farming (ERSGF) from 1961 to 2007, then we setup an experiment using reed (Phragmites australis) stalks with different heights and densities to simulate effects of different vegetation height and density on soil and air temperatures. The warming rates of the mean annual soil and air temperatures were 0.043 and 0.041C a 1 , respectively. Changes of soil temperature were characterized by both increased mean annual maximum and minimum soil temperatures. At the experimental site, mean daily temperature, mean daily maximum soil and air temperatures increased significantly. In contrast, mean daily minimum soil temperature increased significantly while mean daily minimum air temperature decreased significantly as the height and density of reed stalks reduced during the experimental period. Mean diurnal soil temperature ranges were smaller than mean diurnal air temperature ranges. These results highlight that the importance of vegetation cover on soil and air temperatures.     

Low-latitude seasonality of Cretaceous temperatures in warm and cold episodes

The Cretaceous period is generally considered to have been a time of warm climate. Evidence for cooler episodes exists, particularly in the early Cretaceous period, but the timing and significance of these cool episodes are not well constrained. The seasonality of temperatures is important for constraining equator-to-pole temperature gradients and may indicate the presence of polar ice sheets; however, reconstructions of Cretaceous sea surface temperatures are predominantly based on the oxygen isotopic composition of planktonic foraminifera that do not provide information about such intra-annual variations. Here we present intra-shell variations in delta18O values of rudist bivalves (Hippuritoidea) from palaeolatitudes between 8 degrees and 31 degrees N, which record the evolution of the seasonality of Cretaceous sea surface temperatures in detail. We find high maximum temperatures (approximately 35 to 37 degrees C) and relatively low seasonal variability (< 12 degrees C) between 20 degrees and 30 degrees N during the warmer Cretaceous episodes. In contrast, during the cooler episodes our data show seasonal sea surface temperature variability of up to 18 degrees C near 25 degrees N, comparable to the range found today. Such a large seasonal variability is compatible with the existence of polar ice sheets.     

High-resolution record of Northern Hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period

Two deep ice cores from central Greenland, drilled in the 1990s, have played a key role in climate reconstructions of the Northern Hemisphere, but the oldest sections of the cores were disturbed in chronology owing to ice folding near the bedrock. Here we present an undisturbed climate record from a North Greenland ice core, which extends back to 123,000 years before the present, within the last interglacial period. The oxygen isotopes in the ice imply that climate was stable during the last interglacial period, with temperatures 5 degrees C warmer than today. We find unexpectedly large temperature differences between our new record from northern Greenland and the undisturbed sections of the cores from central Greenland, suggesting that the extent of ice in the Northern Hemisphere modulated the latitudinal temperature gradients in Greenland. This record shows a slow decline in temperatures that marked the initiation of the last glacial period. Our record reveals a hitherto unrecognized warm period initiated by an abrupt climate warming about 115,000 years ago, before glacial conditions were fully developed. This event does not appear to have an immediate Antarctic counterpart, suggesting that the climate see-saw between the hemispheres (which dominated the last glacial period) was not operating at this time.     

天山一号冰川地区气候要素的变化及其对冰川物质平衡的影响

通过对逐日气温、降水、流量和相对湿度等实测数据进行小波分析,提取了天山乌鲁木齐河源一号冰川地区近10年来的气候变化特征.在此基础上,运用灰熵关联分析方法进一步研究了冰川物质平衡量与不同气候要素的关联关系.结果显示:研究区气候要素在4d,16d,32d和64d尺度上的变化存在阶段性、周期性和弱趋势性三大特征;在较宽的时间尺度上,气温要素的极大值与极小值呈非对称性变化;1996-2004年期间,冰川物质平衡主要受气温类要素的影响;9-5月(物质平衡年)的降水量是冰川物质积累的重要来源.     

Contribution of stratospheric cooling to satellite-inferred tropospheric temperature trends

From 1979 to 2001, temperatures observed globally by the mid-tropospheric channel of the satellite-borne Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU channel 2), as well as the inferred temperatures in the lower troposphere, show only small warming trends of less than 0.1 K per decade (refs 1-3). Surface temperatures based on in situ observations however, exhibit a larger warming of approximately 0.17 K per decade (refs 4, 5), and global climate models forced by combined anthropogenic and natural factors project an increase in tropospheric temperatures that is somewhat larger than the surface temperature increase. Here we show that trends in MSU channel 2 temperatures are weak because the instrument partly records stratospheric temperatures whose large cooling trend offsets the contributions of tropospheric warming. We quantify the stratospheric contribution to MSU channel 2 temperatures using MSU channel 4, which records only stratospheric temperatures. The resulting trend of reconstructed tropospheric temperatures from satellite data is physically consistent with the observed surface temperature trend. For the tropics, the tropospheric warming is approximately 1.6 times the surface warming, as expected for a moist adiabatic lapse rate.     

基于凝结尾和风因素的飞行高度层优化研究

飞行高度层的选择是航空公司制定飞行计划的重要内容。为了节能减排、保护环境、提高航空公司利益,提出基于凝结尾和风因素的综合指数法来优化飞行高度层。将飞行高度层上的风和凝结尾因素归一化为风因数和凝结尾因数,确定最小综合指数对应的高度层为优化高度层。以四川航空公司成都双流至上海浦东的航段为例进行验证。实例表明,使用优化后的飞行高度层可以降低凝结尾的生成,并有效利用风向,达到节约成本,减少环境影响的目的。     

基于Matlab梯度优化航行班次结构研究

建立一种航行班次梯度优化算法,通过收集、统计与比较飞行计划航空器、实际天气条件及管制班组压力负荷等数量,编程且经Matlab计算找出数量极值与相互关系,预计未来空域构成形势。以成都双流国际机场各个时段数据为依据,通过实例验证,并根据运算结果调整优化方案再次验证,评判前后运算所得结果,检验优化方案的可行性,从而印证梯度法优化对降低航行班次不正常率的实用性。     

ACE飞船观测的行星际磁场准27天重现周期和结构

 ACE飞船发射于1997年8月15日,将维持到2024年,位于日地连线重力平衡点L1。本文采用ACE飞船行星际磁场观测数据,基于GSE坐标系统,确定L1点的行星际磁场主体方位,进而将行星际磁场观测数据转换为极性符号序列。对于序列中的任一时间点,通过改变以它为中心的子序列探测行星际磁场的准27d重现周期和结构,再应用模板匹配方法识别重现结构,最后采用分段常值函数拟合获得分段稳定的周期和结构。得到的主要结果如下：(1) 1999—2008年间,IMF重现周期绝大多数在(27±2)d范围内,只有1个例外,即2001年10月27日10:00—11月28日12:00时间内,重现周期为21d14h;(2) 2001年1月8日12:00—2004年7月17日04:00,IMF为2扇瓣结构,2004年7月17日05:00—2007年6月30日23:00,IMF为4扇瓣结构,2007年7月1日00:00—2008年12月31日23:00,IMF为2扇瓣结构。     

上呼吸道感染月发病率的主成分神经网络预测模型

 在医学卫生领域,疾病受许多因素的影响,很难用结构式因果模型解释,根据神经网络预测是一种行之有效的方法。径向基函数（RBF）神经网络应用于疾病的月发病人数预测时,由于影响它的气象因素,如月平均气压、月平均气温、月平均相对湿度、月平均风速、月平均降水量等本身具有很大的相关性,且维数较高,RBF神经网络的预测精度会下降。针对这一问题,本文提出了利用主成分分析方法对原输入空间进行重构,并根据各主成分的贡献率确定网络结构,从而有效地解决了预测精度下降问题。最后,以2001年8月至2006年9月甘肃省武威市上呼吸道感染炎月发病人数的资料验证该方法的有效性。至此,应该充分考虑人在各时间段的发病特征,以便更有重点地进行健康防治工作,有效地降低支气管肺炎对人类的危害,保障人类的生活品质。     

An internal thermal sensor controlling temperature preference in Drosophila

Animals from flies to humans are able to distinguish subtle gradations in temperature and show strong temperature preferences. Animals move to environments of optimal temperature and some manipulate the temperature of their surroundings, as humans do using clothing and shelter. Despite the ubiquitous influence of environmental temperature on animal behaviour, the neural circuits and strategies through which animals select a preferred temperature remain largely unknown. Here we identify a small set of warmth-activated anterior cell (AC) neurons located in the Drosophila brain, the function of which is critical for preferred temperature selection. AC neuron activation occurs just above the fly's preferred temperature and depends on dTrpA1, an ion channel that functions as a molecular sensor of warmth. Flies that selectively express dTrpA1 in the AC neurons select normal temperatures, whereas flies in which dTrpA1 function is reduced or eliminated choose warmer temperatures. This internal warmth-sensing pathway promotes avoidance of slightly elevated temperatures and acts together with a distinct pathway for cold avoidance to set the fly's preferred temperature. Thus, flies select a preferred temperature by using a thermal sensing pathway tuned to trigger avoidance of temperatures that deviate even slightly from the preferred temperature. This provides a potentially general strategy for robustly selecting a narrow temperature range optimal for survival.     

地表覆盖对季节性冻融土壤温度影响研究

基于季节性冻土分布区冻融期间土壤温度的田间试验,研究了地膜覆盖、地膜与秸秆双重覆盖对冻融土壤剖面温度的影响。结果表明:地膜覆盖对试验土层有明显的增温效应,而地膜、秸秆双重覆盖对土壤增温的影响只限于耕作层内;越冬期试验土层范围内,各处理地块的地温均经历降低、趋于稳定、升高的过程;地膜、秸秆覆盖可平抑土壤温度变化,明显缩小温差;在冻结阶段和融化阶段,三种处理地块40~100 cm深度处地温降低和升高的幅度随深度的加大而减小。研究结果对于改善季节性冻土区土壤热状况,指导农业生产具有实际意义。     

Evaporation in the young solar nebula as the origin of 'just-right' melting of chondrules

Chondrules are millimetre-sized, solidified melt spherules formed in the solar nebula by an early widespread heating event of uncertain nature. They were accreted into chondritic asteroids, which formed about 4.56 billion years ago and have not experienced melting or differentiation since that time. Chondrules have diverse chemical compositions, corresponding to liquidus temperatures in the range 1,350-1,800 degrees C. Most chondrules, however, show porphyritic textures (consisting of large crystals in a distinctly finer grained or glassy matrix), indicative of melting within the narrow range 0-50 degrees C below the liquidus. This suggests an unusual heating mechanism for chondrule precursors, which would raise each individual chondrule to just the right temperature (particular to individual bulk composition) in order to form porphyritic textures. Here we report the results of isothermal melting of a chondritic composition at nebular pressures. Our results suggest that evaporation stabilizes porphyritic textures over a wider range of temperatures below the liquidus (about 200 degrees C) than previously believed, thus removing the need for individual chondrule temperature buffering. In addition, we show that evaporation explains many chondrule bulk and mineral compositions that have hitherto been difficult to understand.     

龙眼角颊木虱发育起点温度和有效积温的研究

在人工气候室不同温度下测定龙眼角颊木虱的各个虫态及全世代的发育起点温度和有效积温.研究结果表明,在试验温度范围内(18-30℃)龙眼角颊木虱的生命活动能正常进行.发育历期随温度的升高而缩短,随温度的降低而延长;在18℃时从卵发育到成虫需72.76d,在30℃时从卵发育到成虫需31.76d.龙眼角颊木虱室内人工饲养温度以24-30℃范围内发育历期最短,发育速度最快.全世代的理论发育起点温度C为6.966±2.0142(℃),有效积温K为770.224土88.2071(日度).根据在福州全年大于发育起点温度的有效积温约为4550日·度;计算出龙眼角颊木虱在福州地区一年发生的理论代数为5.91代,这与田间实际发生代数6代基本吻合.为龙眼角颊木虱在福州地区发生提供了预测依据,为化学防治发挥重要的指导作用.     

Millennial temperature reconstruction based on tree-ring widths of Qilian juniper from Wulan, Qinghai Province, China

The climate of the past 1000 years is an important context for evaluating the recent climate warming. However, there are few 1000-year-long climate reconstructions with annual resolution in the Qinghal-Tibet Plateau. In this paper, a dendroclimatic analysis was conducted for the radial growth of Qilian juniper from the upper forest limit in Wulan, Qinghai Province. The results of correlation analysis between the tree-ring widths and the climate variables indicate that the growth of junipers at the upper forest limit is mainly limited by low temperatures of September, November and February of the pregrowth season, and July of the current growth season. There is no significant correlation between the tree-ring widths and precipitation. A mean temperature from the previous year＇s September to the current year＇s April was reconstructed for the Wulan area since A.D. 1000. The reconstruction can explain 40.8% of the instrumental variance in the calibration period （1856-2002）. The reconstruction shows that the 20th century is the warmest 100 years, and the 1990s is the warmest decade during the past 1000 years, while the coldest 100 years and decade occur at 1600-1699 and 1642-1651, respectively. The variations are verified well by the temperature reconstruction of the middle Qilian Mountain （QL） and the total organic carbon （TOC） in the Qinghai Lake sediments. The comparison of our reconstruction with the annual temperature reconstruction of extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere suggests that the climate of Wulan during the Medieval Warm Period is of obvious regional specialty, but there was a good response to the climate of hemispheric scales during the recent 400 years.     

渤海石油平台用钢A537疲劳裂纹的扩展特征

对渤海石油平台管节点用钢A537在238K,237K和303K三个温度下的疲劳裂纹扩展情况进行了试验研究.试验结果表明.这种钢材在每一个测试温度下的疲劳裂纹扩展均遵循Paris规律.不同温度下的疲劳裂纹扩展曲线随应力强度因子幅值的增加而有汇合趋势,并在某一高扩展速率处相交.试验还表明,温度降低,A537钢的裂纹扩展速率下降,而Paris指数n则大为增加.在裂纹扩展后期,低温下裂纹扩展速率的增长速度远大于室温,因此,低温时的扩展速率反而高于室温时的扩展速率.