The Relationship of ‘Systems Thinking’ to Action Research

This article investigates the relationship of systems thinking to action research by reviewing the main developments in systems thinking and relating these to action research. There are two main lines of thought in systems thinking that lead to wholly different conceptions about action research. The first (systems thinking) advocates thinking about real social systems that it assumes exist in the world. The second (systemic thinking) supposes only that the social construction of the world is systemic. Greater emphasis is placed on systemic thinking consistent with its greater importance to contemporary action research. The article concludes that systemic thinking when taken to its practical conclusion from a critical perspective offers to action research a somewhat unique liberating praxis. Concern that any liberating praxis could remain hollow is addressed through a certain kind of ‘spiritual’ awareness that is suggested by wholeness.     

F#-Time, Functions and Processes: Towards Sustainable Investment Risk Benchmarks

‘I made a mistake’: Alan Greenspan (Financial Times: Alan Beattie and James Politi: Washington, 23rd October 2008). Such are the words of great men, for even in troubled times their self-effacing manner provides useful guidance. Whilst Mr Greenspan may feel this way, he is a product of his environment, one that has seen the cumulative development of financial instruments and strategies that have not been thought through as to their impact on a complex economy. Mainly this is because risk is thought to be discrete and the methods used to price it are flawed. To an engineer the control of a machine is built-in. Although the economy is not a machine, but an intensely connected complex of ever emerging businesses, the process of control needs to be structured in a similar manner. Pricing investment risk in this environment should never have been left to opaque institutions, or processes that do not recognise the co-dependencies of business and systemic functionality. To do so is to ignore the correlation of events in a highly connected world. These events are dynamic and conditional, whose outturns are unknowable. This does not mean unmanageable, but that the control process be built-in to businesses and government in a consistent manner, transparent yet using different parameters. Transparent means that data, assumptions and processes need to be monitored and published in timely manner. As far as accounting for results is concerned it should be recognised that budgeting and reporting to investors is founded on dynamic processes that are therefore changeable; usually out of date; and co-dependent upon others within a complex dynamic network that is both internal and external to the business. The works of Stafford Beer (Brain of the Firm, Heart of the Enterprise, Diagnosing the System) Fredrick Vestor (The Art of Interconnected Thinking) and others are examples of how to manage the internal dynamics of a business and point to a methodology that synthesises the approaches of investors such as Warren Buffett so that extreme outcomes such as the Credit-Crunch 2008 can be reduced in frequency but investors are free to ‘take their risks’. This research aims to compare two extreme events in the financial arena, the ‘Reinsurance Spiral of the late 1980s’ and the ‘2008 Credit-Crunch’, show their commonalities and propose methods that supply liquidity in all but gross systemic failure and allow investment risk to be more ably assessed and priced. It is not meant to be an exhaustive analysis but one focused on how ignoring the proper relationship of time, functions and processes brought about the current problem in both insurance and the capital markets and how a solution may be found. This research note offers an overview on the ongoing PhD research on the topic.

Systemic Understanding of Coopetitive Behaviour in a Latin American Technological Park

The purpose of this article is to construct a systemic structure to explain the relations subjacent to the coopetitive behaviour observed in a Latin American technological park. The research method is qualitative modelling. The primary research technique is the in-depth interview with park experts. Systemic language organised the speeches. The systemic language uses symbols that represent the elements of a system, such as variables, relations, and feedback loops. Initially, we constructed two essential archetypes that describe how the need for coopetition emerged, triggered by failures in meeting customers´ demands and reduced sales. Then, we built an overall systemic structure relying on the essential archetypes, which explains how the coopetitive strategy emerged in the park. The main conclusion reached by the study is learning and public policies as desirable conditions; failure in meeting customers’ requirements as the trigger; and sustainability, knowledge and resource sharing, mitigation of risks and uncertainties, and increased sales by price reduction, as reinforcing feedback factors. The main contribution of the study is a systemic qualitative model that helps understanding how to implement or manage a coopetitive strategy in a network formed of companies mainly driven by technological factors.     

我国银行体系的系统性关联度分析:基于不对称CoVaR

根据系统性关联度的定义,使用不对称CoVaR方法,对我国单个银行与银行体系之间的系统性关联度和任意两个银行间的系统性关联度进行了测算.研究结果表明,我国银行体系的系统性关联度存在不对称性,使用不对称CoVaR方法重新估算我国银行体系的系统性关联度能为我国系统重要性银行的甄别和银行间系统性风险溢出的评估提供依据.进一步地,探讨出上述两种系统性关联度的主要影响因素为银行自身的特征变量,如贷款总额,股本,留存收益等.基于此,为我国银行业监管者提升银行风险监管水平和银行管理者制定准确的风险控制体系提供有益帮助.     

基于CoES模型的我国金融系统性风险度量

为了更加准确地度量金融系统性风险,预防灾难性金融风险事件发生,本文基于尾部损失的均值提出了一个新的度量系统性风险的方法——CoES模型,相对于传统的CoVaR模型来说,该方法更关注尾部损失的均值而不仅仅是单一分位点上的期望损失,能够更加准确地捕捉系统性风险,为金融系统监管提供更为有效的信息.最后,本文将该方法用于度量2007-2016年间共21个金融机构对我国金融市场系统性风险的贡献.研究结果发现:1)CoVaR模型可能低估了金融机构的系统性风险;2)当银行行业受到冲击时,其对整个金融系统造成的风险最大,其次是保险,房地产和多元金融行业;3)在银行行业中,对系统性风险贡献最大的当属工商银行和中国银行,应对其进行重点监管;4)相对于银行和房地产行业,保险行业和多元金融行业自身的VaR值较高,但对金融系统性风险的贡献较低,因此应注意对其自身风险的管理.     

Collaborative Project Management: A Systemic Approach to Heavy Equipment Manufacturing Project Management

Quite often over the last decade, heavy equipment manufacturers are trying to improve their project management performance with the use of effective project management methods. However, the challenges encountered aren’t isolated problems and a systemic approach is required. This paper exemplifies how a systemic approach can be applied to heavy equipment manufacturing project (HEMP) management, through of a multifaceted vision. The findings present in the paper are based on a two-year case study in a metallurgic equipment manufacturing enterprise in China. Based on the analysis of HEMP management problems and the contributions on systemic approach application in project management, the paper enriches existing theory by: (1) interpreting the HEMP management system with the top-down disassembly method; (2) developing the collaborative project management approach with a systems view highlighting the project characteristics management and inter-departmental collaboration; (3) making suggestions for systemic approach application in project management. For practitioners and researchers, the findings are particularly meaningful for manufacturing project management and systemic approach application.     

改进的DebtRank算法与系统重要性、系统脆弱性研究

从影响因子、传播方式以及影响程度三个方面改进了DebtRank算法并应用到银行同业拆借市场模型中.研究发现,不发生机构倒闭时,在改进的DebtRank算法下系统的损失等于各个机构对系统损失的贡献之和;不同的初始冲击造成的系统损失、机构损失相互独立.根据机构的系统重要性、系统脆弱性是系统内生决定的假设,给出了DebtRank算法下机构的系统重要性、系统脆弱性权值与次序的定义,证明了一般意义下机构的系统重要性次序、系统脆弱性次序分别由损失矩阵列向量与初始所有者权益向量、损失矩阵行向量与初始所有者权益向量决定.另外,对我国银行数据的研究表明机构的系统重要性与系统脆弱性不一致,而且随时间变化,最后对系统性金融风险的监管提出了建议.     

SYSTEMIC PATHOLOGIES OF CONFRONTATION： DIAGNOSING SECURITY DISRUPTION

The world post-9/11 is characterised by uncertainty, fear and suspicion. Psychological confrontations amplified by the mass media have even come to dominate physical engagements between warring parties. Drama theory provides a powerful framework for understanding these interactions in much the way that game theory was able to support strategy making by autonomous players in a less inter-connected era. A model of the ‘normal’ process leading to dramatic resolution is an essential feature of the drama theory approach and is described here. However this process can be derailed or fail in many ways. This paper reviews many of these systemic pathologies and illustrates some of them through consideration of three high-profile cases. The conclusion is that it is important to recognise and possibly to use pathological behavior as an element of a character’s interaction strategy.     

A Systemic View of Change Management and Its Conceptual Underpinnings

This paper presents a critical analysis of a systemic view of change management and its conceptual underpinnings. It reflects upon the systemic view from perspectives of modernism and postmodernism. The understandings so developed are then synthesised in terms of structuration theory. It is argued that organisational change is characterised by diversity and interactions, which necessitates a systemic approach using multiple methods in one intervention. By making transparent the conceptual underpinnings, it is shown that this systemic view can help build an improved understanding of organisational change characterised by diversity and interactions, and it can support the use of multiple methods to manage organisational change in one intervention.     

Critical Systems Thinking on the Inefficiency in Post-Earthquake Relief: A Practice in Longmen Shan Fault Area

The Longmen Shan Fault area is one of the most active seismic zones in the world, has a relatively dense population and a low economic development level. Therefore, the provision of effective post-earthquake relief is very important for saving lives and restricting financial losses. However, providing urgent relief is a complex problem that requires efficient coordination between the organizations, and departments involved, and the specific environments, for the supply of urgent materials, energy and information. In practice, although there are sufficient relief supplies, because of the lack of systemic thinking, relief activities are often chaotic leading to inefficiencies and even increases in the damage and loss of life. In this study, a critical systems thinking approach is used to reflect on the system contexts, boundaries, structures and functions of the emergency relief systems. Using systems modeling we constructed simulations for different relief plans and their consequences, and a work shop of metasynthetic engineering was constructed to integrate the different views, knowledge and contexts. At the practical stage, after the model’s validity was verified from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake data, based on the 2013 Lushan earthquake simulation results, some recommendations are made to improve future post-disaster relief operations. Finally, the significance of critical systems thinking is demonstrated to ensure effective and efficient of post-earthquake relief. Some limitations and future research also have been presented in conclusion.     

Teaching Systems Theory/Thinking/Behavior: Systemic Behavior Instead of One-Sidedness: Making Bridges Among Specialists

In the current real life, systems theory is an abstract background of systems thinking,which is a part of systemic behavior. The systemic behavior is the alternative to the currently prevailing one-sidedness that puts all of humankind in danger of self-destruction due to the crucial over-sights(all the way to world wars) that unavoidably result from the current over-specialization(along with crucial, but partial insights), if the specialists fail to practice creative interdisciplinary cooperation.This contribution is a next phase of research after the contributions by Matja? Mulej, Zdenka ?enko and Viktor ?akelj(2017) and by Matja? Mulej, et al.(2013). Although the abstract background and thinking that the systemic behavior applies, are very necessary, theory and thinking are no longer enough for systems science to be a relevant science and practice helping humankind find the way out from the current blind alley and survive as a healthy civilization with a healthy social and natural environment. The suggestion in this contribution therefore reads: Let us systems and cybernetics scientists make/enable the transition to systemic behavior, which applies all the many theories, which are components in the background of systemic behavior in practice, next to each other and/or in synergy. Analysis, i.e., studying per isolated parts is too overlooking and one-sided to be enough. So is teaching on a single one out of several systems theories. Reality is too complex. Teaching is a part of this necessary effort, which must lead to a global peace and survival of humankind of today instead of the current hating the human descendants.     

交易者异质性条件下系统风险冲击与企业创新能力对股票价格波动性的影响机理:理论模型与仿真分析

基于信息交易者和非信息交易者行为特征，建立数学模型从理论上研究交易者异质性条件下系统风险冲击与企业创新能力对股票价格波动性的影响机理，并利用MATLAB编程对理论模型结果进行仿真分析.研究结果表明：企业创新能力在任何系统风险冲击和交易者结构下都将发挥股票价格稳定器作用；在企业创新能力较高时，股票价格波动性与信息交易者持股比例负相关，与系统风险冲击之间的相关性因交易者结构不同而呈现出不同特征；在企业创新能力较低时，股票价格波动性与系统风险冲击正相关，与信息交易者持股比例之间呈U型关系；信息交易者持股比例较高的股票市场更具优胜劣汰选择机制.提升企业创新能力、提高信息交易者持股比例、完善信息披露制度是抵御系统风险冲击、保障股票市场稳定可持续发展的重要途径.     

A Systemic Exploration of the Risk Factors in Zimbabwean Information Technology Projects

This paper explores the risk factors threatening Zimbabwean Information Technology (IT) projects and build a systemic model demonstrating how the identified risk factors are interconnected. Drawn on systemic thinking, a soft systems approach called Interactive Management (IM) was adopted to identify the risk factors. The Interactive Management session involved the relevant stakeholders to interactively produce the systemic model through four major phases: idea generation, idea clarification, idea structuring, and interpretation of the structured ideas. The output of the Interactive Management process is a digraph showing the causal relationships between the identified risks. Six risk drivers were identified through the Interactive Management process: limited computer literacy, poor communication, lack of executive support, complexity of design, bureaucracy, and employee turnover. The constructed model demonstrates how the identified risk factors are interconnected. It also shows that non-linear relationships exist between risk factors. The output from this exploration has the potential to be used as a starting point to mitigate the risks impacting on Zimbabwean IT projects. Different from the output of frequently used approaches, the risk drivers identified in the systemic model inform decision makers to exploit the effective strategies in preventing other risks from materializing.

     

金融业系统性风险度量——基于尾部依赖视角

根据系统性风险定义,从时间和空间两个维度出发,利用尾部依赖来对系统性风险进行度量. 实证分析结果表明,银行业、证券业以及保险业存在系统性风险,且银行业、证券业以及保险业系统性风险呈现出了共性：经济下行时期系统性风险大于经济上行时期系统性风险. 进一步,本文分别对银行业、证券业以及保险业系统性风险存在的原因展开分析,并从系统流动性、杠杆率和公允价值计量对经济下行系统性风险增强提供了解释,认为流动性风险传导是引发系统性风险的重要原因. 基于此,对金融业体系建立动态拨备制度提供了佐证.     

How Systemic Inquiry Releases Citizen Knowledge to Reform Schools: Community Scorecard Case Studies

Despite the relevance of systemic practice for repairing broken public systems, documented instances where it empowers marginalised groups en masse to be action researchers are rare. Public school systems that fail to educate millions of pupils are ripe for systemic inquiry. Using evidence, this article identifies conditions under which such inquiry fosters school system accountability and increases pupil learning. By tracing the emergence of a type of community scorecard practice called Citizen Voice and Action (CV&A), it explains how and why marginalised groups use CV&A’s systems-enhanced participatory research to engage with and reform unresponsive public systems. It also shows how soft systems thinking and further action research enhanced scorecard methodology. Brief case studies of CV&A use in Ugandan primary schools illustrate and explain how communities reform schools by using CV&A to systematically foster accountability. Discussion identifies how processes free them to create and use systemic knowledge. This theorising helps explain conditions under which systemic inquiry into school and other public systems is being generalised and scaled up.     

Film Use to Promote Understanding in Change and Diffusion of Innovation

The paper explores cinematic films as a pedagogical tool to promote critical thinking and student discussions in a doctoral-level learning, design, and technology seminar course at a major U.S. research university. These discussions focused on systemic change and systemic thinking concepts. The authors offer evidence from the literature that supports films’ power as a visual metaphor and neurocognitive stimulator to promote development of new perspectives in graduate students on case studies through articulation, reflection, and explanation of their thought processes on change and diffusion of innovation. There are theoretical, political, social, and technological issues that create tensions during any systemic change effort. The goal of using film in this seminar is to equip students with the requisite skills, theoretical frameworks, and interpersonal experiences needed to address these issues within organizations and communities. The change expected from systemic thinking is for students to think more deeply about the interconnectedness of systems and the importance of bottom-up change efforts that consider the perspective of all stakeholders.     

银行系统性风险研究综述

银行系统性风险的破坏力巨大,严重威胁着国家经济发展和社会安全稳定,受到了学者、投资者和监管部门的高度关注。本文从系统科学的视角,介绍了银行系统性风险的内涵和特征,并对银行系统性风险相关文献进行系统梳理和回顾。银行系统性风险未来可能的研究方向是信息交互行为对银行挤兑的影响、银行系统结构对系统性风险的影响研究、银行系统性风险的实证研究。     

自然科学与社会科学协调发展的自组织机制

当代系统思维具有整体性、关联性、协调发展性、多目标性及人的主体性等全新特征。而生态化技术创新的形成、内涵、构成要素及其目标都充分体现了系统思维的上述特征,所以说生态化技术创新本质上属于系统思维创新观,是系统思维在社会实践领域中作用的具体体现。     

System–Environment Relations in the Theories of Open and Autopoietic Systems: Implications for Critical Systems Thinking

This short paper revisits Bertalanffy??s open systems theory and Luhmann??s theory of autopoietic social systems in order to highlight the linkage between systemic complexity and the carrying capacity of the environment. Being paradigmatically focused on biological complexity, Bertalanffy??s work shows this linkage to be relatively unproblematic. In contrast, Luhmann argued that autopoietic social systems are likely to develop excessive complexity which overstrains the environment??s carrying capacity. The paper synthesizes these conceptions into a framework of discretionary social decision-making aimed at preventing systemic complexity from becoming excessive. Rooted in the idea of balancing the system and the environment, this framework determines the optimal level of systemic complexity as that level which systems can maximally attain without incurring the risk of self-destruction. The system?Cenvironment balance is shown to be the general systems theory core of Ulrich??s critical systems heuristics and critical systems thinking more generally.     

集成与系统的辩证关系

集成是具有某种公共属性要素的集合。集成与系统的辩证关系 ,是集成和集成管理理论研究的基本问题之一。集成与系统存在相互依赖、相互作用的密切关系。系统理论主要研究系统的一般特征、演化规律、优化技术等 ;集成理论着重研究系统的构建、重组过程 ,以及由此而引起的系统特性变化和系统的演化。系统理论是通过探索系统自组织和他组织规律 ,实现系统整体功能突变 ;集成理论是通过探索集成过程规律 ,并通过有效的集成管理 ,实现系统整体功能最优。系统科学属于横断科学 ,集成理论则属于系统理论的分支 ,它既属于系统他组织的范畴 ,又属于系统工程的范畴。集成理论是对系统思想、系统理论、系统方法的新发展。