Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change.

Habitat degradation and climate change are thought to be altering the distributions and abundances of animals and plants throughout the world, but their combined impacts have not been assessed for any species assemblage. Here we evaluated changes in the distribution sizes and abundances of 46 species of butterflies that approach their northern climatic range margins in Britain-where changes in climate and habitat are opposing forces. These insects might be expected to have responded positively to climate warming over the past 30 years, yet three-quarters of them declined: negative responses to habitat loss have outweighed positive responses to climate warming. Half of the species that were mobile and habitat generalists increased their distribution sites over this period (consistent with a climate explanation), whereas the other generalists and 89% of the habitat specialists declined in distribution size (consistent with habitat limitation). Changes in population abundances closely matched changes in distributions. The dual forces of habitat modification and climate change are likely to cause specialists to decline, leaving biological communities with reduced numbers of species and dominated by mobile and widespread habitat generalists.     

Extinction risk from climate change

Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.     

Disentangling the effects of topography and space on the distributions of dominant species in a subtropical forest

Topography and space are two important factors determining plant species assemblages in forest communities. Quantification of the contribution of these two factors in determining species distribution helps us to evaluate their relative importance in determining species assemblages. This study aims to disentangle the effect of topography and space on the distributions of 14 dominant species in a subtropical mixed forest. Spearman correlation analysis and the torus- translation test were used to test the species-habitat associa- tions. Variation partitioning was used to quantify the relative contributions of topography and space at three sampling scales and three life stages. Correlation analyses and torus-transla- tion tests showed species abundance was mostly correlated with topographic wetness index, vertical distance from the channel network and convexity. Variation partitioning showed that pure topography, pure space and spatially struc- tured topography explained about 2.1%, 41.2 % and 13.8 % of the variation in species distributions, respectively. For nine species, total topography fractions peaked in 20 m quadrats. For ten species, the pure space fractions peaked in 50 m quadrats. For many species, the total topography fraction and the pure space fraction were larger for the most abundant life stages, which reflected the importance of sampling effect. However, some cases did not follow this trend suggesting that the effects of ecological processes such as habitat filtering, density dependence or dispersal limitation may exceed the sampling effects. In conclusion, we found that spatially structured topography and pure space primarily shaped the distribution of dominant tree species. Furthermore, their effects were both scale- and life stage-dependent.     

Adjustment to climate change is constrained by arrival date in a long-distance migrant bird

Spring temperatures in temperate regions have increased over the past 20 years, and many organisms have responded to this increase by advancing the date of their growth and reproduction. Here we show that adaptation to climate change in a long-distance migrant is constrained by the timing of its migratory journey. For long-distance migrants climate change may advance the phenology of their breeding areas, but the timing of some species' spring migration relies on endogenous rhythms that are not affected by climate change. Thus, the spring migration of these species will not advance even though they need to arrive earlier on their breeding grounds to breed at the appropriate time. We show that the migratory pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca has advanced its laying date over the past 20 years. This temporal shift has been insufficient, however, as indicated by increased selection for earlier breeding over the same period. The shift is hampered by its spring arrival date, which has not advanced. Some of the numerous long-distance migrants will suffer from climate change, because either their migration strategy is unaffected by climate change, or the climate in breeding and wintering areas are changing at different speeds, preventing adequate adaptation.     

Diversity and dispersal interactively affect predictability of ecosystem function

Theory and small-scale experiments predict that biodiversity losses can decrease the magnitude and stability of ecosystem services such as production and nutrient cycling. Most of this research, however, has been isolated from the immigration and emigration (dispersal) processes that create and maintain diversity in nature. As common anthropogenic drivers of biodiversity change--such as habitat fragmentation, species introductions and climate change--are mediated by these understudied processes, it is unclear how environmental degradation will affect ecosystem services. Here we tested the interactive effects of mobile grazer diversity and dispersal on the magnitude and stability of ecosystem properties in experimental seagrass communities that were either isolated or connected by dispersal corridors. We show that, contrary to theoretical predictions, increasing the number of mobile grazer species in these metacommunities increased the spatial and temporal variability of primary and secondary production. Moreover, allowing grazers to move among and select patches reduced diversity effects on production. Finally, effects of diversity on stability differed qualitatively between patch and metacommunity scales. Our results indicate that declining biodiversity and habitat fragmentation synergistically influence the predictability of ecosystem functioning.     

Synchronization of animal population dynamics by large-scale climate

The hypothesis that animal population dynamics may be synchronized by climate is highly relevant in the context of climate change because it suggests that several populations might respond simultaneously to climatic trends if their dynamics are entrained by environmental correlation. The dynamics of many species throughout the Northern Hemisphere are influenced by a single large-scale climate system, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which exerts highly correlated regional effects on local weather. But efforts to attribute synchronous fluctuations of contiguous populations to large-scale climate are confounded by the synchronizing influences of dispersal or trophic interactions. Here we report that the dynamics of caribou and musk oxen on opposite coasts of Greenland show spatial synchrony among populations of both species that correlates with the NAO index. Our analysis shows that the NAO has an influence in the high degree of cross-species synchrony between pairs of caribou and musk oxen populations separated by a minimum of 1,000 km of inland ice. The vast distances, and complete physical and ecological separation of these species, rule out spatial coupling by dispersal or interaction. These results indicate that animal populations of different species may respond synchronously to global climate change over large regions.     

Demographic compensation and tipping points in climate-induced range shifts

To persist, species are expected to shift their geographical ranges polewards or to higher elevations as the Earth's climate warms. However, although many species' ranges have shifted in historical times, many others have not, or have shifted only at the high-latitude or high-elevation limits, leading to range expansions rather than contractions. Given these idiosyncratic responses to climate warming, and their varied implications for species' vulnerability to climate change, a critical task is to understand why some species have not shifted their ranges, particularly at the equatorial or low-elevation limits, and whether such resilience will last as warming continues. Here we show that compensatory changes in demographic rates are buffering southern populations of two North American tundra plants against the negative effects of a warming climate, slowing their northward range shifts, but that this buffering is unlikely to continue indefinitely. Southern populations of both species showed lower survival and recruitment but higher growth of individual plants, possibly owing to longer, warmer growing seasons. Because of these and other compensatory changes, the population growth rates of southern populations are not at present lower than those of northern ones. However, continued warming may yet prove detrimental, as most demographic rates that improved in moderately warmer years declined in the warmest years, with the potential to drive future population declines. Our results emphasize the need for long-term, range-wide measurement of all population processes to detect demographic compensation and to identify nonlinear responses that may lead to sudden range shifts as climatic tipping points are exceeded.     

近五十年内蒙古大学校园内苔藓植物物种组成变化

苔藓植物是植物区系的一个重要组成部分,但我国对校园微环境苔藓植物多样性变化的研究仍处于空白阶段.2010年通过样方布设法对内蒙古大学校园内的苔藓植物进行采集,并通过镜下观察,将2010年所采集的标本与内蒙古大学馆藏1964年同样地的标本进行鉴定与比较.整理出1964年有苔藓植物9科、19属、31种,以耐旱藓类和生态幅度宽的藓类植物为主,2010年有12科、20属、42种,除了适应性强的藓类植物外,还增加了一些喜阴湿环境的苔藓植物,物种组成较早年丰富;区系地理成分均以北温带及世界广布种为主,这是研究地大环境地理气候决定的;两个年代苔藓植物物种相似性系数为0.4384,物种相似性较高;1964年校园内生境类型单一,分布物种较少,随着校园的建设,2010年生境类型多样,新增物种及校园内大多数物种主要集中分布于人工林、楼群背阴及开阔地湿润土生生境,另外,校园硬化、裸土面积减少、原水湿环境丧失导致了早年分布的部分物种退出校园环境,突显了生境多样性及环境变化对物种丰富度及分布的影响.     

Climate change threats to protected plants of China: an evaluation based on species distribution modeling

Climate change poses major new challenges to biodiversity conservation. Distribution ranges of species have been proven to be affected by climate anomalies. Detecting the extent of protected species response to climate change can help formulate flexible conservation strategies to overcome the changing climate. Using species distribution modeling and high resolution climate data, we simulated current distribution patterns of 233 protected plants in China. Those patterns were then projected into future suitable habitats for each species under nine climate change scenarios, with no migration or full migration hypotheses. Under the most extreme climate change scenario （CGCM-B2a）, we evaluated species extinction risks. Sixteen percent of protected plants are expected to lose more than 30 % of their current ranges. By calculating areal shifts, hotspots for emigrants, immigrants, and persistent species were identified under climate change. Flexible conservation strategies were addressed for those regions. Those strategies strongly depend on the migration types of species and sensitivity of the hotspots to changing climate. In hotspots for emigrants, the main conservation strategy is ex situ protection; protected species from these regions should be stored in seed banks or botanical gardens. For hotspots of immigrants, enough space should be maintained for new species, and some measures are necessary to assist dispersal. For hotspots of persistent species, more natural reserves are needed. We highlight related fields that can help conserve protected species in the future, such as conserving the soil seed bank and understanding of the effects of migration ability and interactions between protected species.     

Patterns and processes in reef fish diversity

A central aim of ecology is to explain the heterogeneous distribution of biodiversity on earth. As expectations of diversity loss grow, this understanding is also critical for effective management and conservation. Although explanations for biodiversity patterns are still a matter for intense debate, they have often been considered to be scale-dependent. At large geographical scales, biogeographers have suggested that variation in species richness results from factors such as area, temperature, environmental stability, and geological processes, among many others. From the species pools generated by these large-scale processes, community ecologists have suggested that local-scale assembly of communities is achieved through processes such as competition, predation, recruitment, disturbances and immigration. Here we analyse hypotheses on speciation and dispersal for reef fish from the Indian and Pacific oceans and show how dispersal from a major centre of origination can simultaneously account for both large-scale gradients in species richness and the structure of local communities.     

Emerging fungal threats to animal, plant and ecosystem health

The past two decades have seen an increasing number of virulent infectious diseases in natural populations and managed landscapes. In both animals and plants, an unprecedented number of fungal and fungal-like diseases have recently caused some of the most severe die-offs and extinctions ever witnessed in wild species, and are jeopardizing food security. Human activity is intensifying fungal disease dispersal by modifying natural environments and thus creating new opportunities for evolution. We argue that nascent fungal infections will cause increasing attrition of biodiversity, with wider implications for human and ecosystem health, unless steps are taken to tighten biosecurity worldwide.     

Extinction and climate change

Arising from F. He & S. P. Hubbell 473, 368-371 (2011). Statistical relationships between habitat area and the number of species observed (species-area relationships, SARs) are sometimes used to assess extinction risks following habitat destruction or loss of climatic suitability. He and Hubbell argue that the numbers of species confined to-rather than observed in-different areas (endemics-area relationships, EARs) should be used instead of SARs, and that SAR-based extinction estimates in the literature are too high. We suggest that He and Hubbell's SAR estimates are biased, that the empirical data they use are not appropriate to calculate extinction risks, and that their statements about extinction risks from climate change do not take into account non-SAR-based estimates or recent observations. Species have already responded to climate change in a manner consistent with high future extinction risks.     

Species-specific responses of Late Quaternary megafauna to climate and humans

Despite decades of research, the roles of climate and humans in driving the dramatic extinctions of large-bodied mammals during the Late Quaternary period remain contentious. Here we use ancient DNA, species distribution models and the human fossil record to elucidate how climate and humans shaped the demographic history of woolly rhinoceros, woolly mammoth, wild horse, reindeer, bison and musk ox. We show that climate has been a major driver of population change over the past 50,000 years. However, each species responds differently to the effects of climatic shifts, habitat redistribution and human encroachment. Although climate change alone can explain the extinction of some species, such as Eurasian musk ox and woolly rhinoceros, a combination of climatic and anthropogenic effects appears to be responsible for the extinction of others, including Eurasian steppe bison and wild horse. We find no genetic signature or any distinctive range dynamics distinguishing extinct from surviving species, emphasizing the challenges associated with predicting future responses of extant mammals to climate and human-mediated habitat change.     

The metapopulation capacity of a fragmented landscape

Ecologists and conservation biologists have used many measures of landscape structure to predict the population dynamic consequences of habitat loss and fragmentation, but these measures are not well justified by population dynamic theory. Here we introduce a new measure for highly fragmented landscapes, termed the metapopulation capacity, which is rigorously derived from metapopulation theory and can easily be applied to real networks of habitat fragments with known areas and connectivities. Technically, metapopulation capacity is the leading eigenvalue of an appropriate 'landscape' matrix. A species is predicted to persist in a landscape if the metapopulation capacity of that landscape is greater than a threshold value determined by the properties of the species. Therefore, metapopulation capacity can conveniently be used to rank different landscapes in terms of their capacity to support viable metapopulations. We present an empirical example on multiple networks occupied by an endangered species of butterfly. Using this theory, we may also calculate how the metapopulation capacity is changed by removing habitat fragments from or adding new ones into specific spatial locations, or by changing their areas. The metapopulation capacity should find many applications in metapopulation ecology, landscape ecology and conservation biology.     

How does contemporary climate versus climate change velocity affect endemic plant species richness in China？

Climate change is considered a top threat to biodiversity, but the relative roles of contemporary climate versus the rate of climate change in determining spatial patterns of biodiversity are far from clear. China has a very diverse flora and harbors a high percentage of endemic species, but the mechanisms underlying spatial patterns of plant endemism are poorly understood. This study explores the geographical patterns of a representative sample of 555 endemic seed plant species at the scale of 0.5° latitude × 0.5°longitude. Ordinary least squares and spatial autoregressive models were compared to assess the relationship between richness of endemics and the rate of climate change in the past century, as well as a group of contemporary climate variables. In China, a high level of endemism was associated with high elevation and low rate of climate change. However, contemporary climate had a stronger impact than climate change velocity in the past century on endemic species richness patterns. Specifically,mean annual precipitation and annual range of temperature were important contemporary climatic factors. The rate of change of annual mean temperature, but not that of annual precipitation, also significantly contributed to the spatial pattern of plant endemic species richness. We found no significant relationship between topographic variation and endemic species richness, while temperature variability at multiple time scales was strongly correlated with the species richness pattern. Future work should consider the direction of climate change and incorporate higher-resolution data.     

Drought sensitivity shapes species distribution patterns in tropical forests

Although patterns of tree species distributions along environmental gradients have been amply documented in tropical forests, mechanisms causing these patterns are seldom known. Efforts to evaluate proposed mechanisms have been hampered by a lack of comparative data on species' reactions to relevant axes of environmental variation. Here we show that differential drought sensitivity shapes plant distributions in tropical forests at both regional and local scales. Our analyses are based on experimental field assessments of drought sensitivity of 48 species of trees and shrubs, and on their local and regional distributions within a network of 122 inventory sites spanning a rainfall gradient across the Isthmus of Panama. Our results suggest that niche differentiation with respect to soil water availability is a direct determinant of both local- and regional-scale distributions of tropical trees. Changes in soil moisture availability caused by global climate change and forest fragmentation are therefore likely to alter tropical species distributions, community composition and diversity.     

Patterns of colonization in a metapopulation of grey seals

The colonization of a new habitat is a fundamental process in metapopulation biology, but it is difficult to study. The emigration of colonists from established populations might be induced by resource competition owing to high local population density. Migration distances are also important because they determine the frequency and scale of recolonization and hence the spatial scale of the metapopulation. Traditionally, these factors have been investigated with demographic approaches that are labour-intensive and are only possible in amenable species. In many cases, genetic differentiation is minimal, preventing traditional genetic approaches from identifying the source of colonists unambiguously. Here we present a bayesian approach that integrates genetic, demographic and geographic distance data. We apply the method to study the British metapopulation of grey seals, which has been growing at 6% per year over the last few decades. Our method reveals differential recruitment to three newly founded colonies and implicates density-dependent dispersal in metapopulation dynamics by using genetic data.     

Neutral metacommunity models predict fish diversity patterns in Mississippi-Missouri basin

River networks, seen as ecological corridors featuring connected and hierarchical dendritic landscapes for animals and plants, present unique challenges and opportunities for testing biogeographical theories and macroecological laws. Although local and basin-scale differences in riverine fish diversity have been analysed as functions of energy availability and habitat heterogeneity, scale-dependent environmental conditions and river discharge, a model that predicts a comprehensive set of system-wide diversity patterns has been hard to find. Here we show that fish diversity patterns throughout the Mississippi-Missouri River System are well described by a neutral metacommunity model coupled with an appropriate habitat capacity distribution and dispersal kernel. River network structure acts as an effective template for characterizing spatial attributes of fish biodiversity. We show that estimates of average dispersal behaviour and habitat capacities, objectively calculated from average runoff production, yield reliable predictions of large-scale spatial biodiversity patterns in riverine systems. The success of the neutral theory in two-dimensional forest ecosystems and here in dendritic riverine ecosystems suggests the possible application of neutral metacommunity models in a diverse suite of ecosystems. This framework offers direct linkage from large-scale forcing, such as global climate change, to biodiversity patterns.     

马尾松分布格局对未来气候变化的响应

【目的】分析并预测未来气候变化对马尾松适宜分布范围,探讨影响马尾松潜在地理分布的主要气候因子,为马尾松潜在分布区种质资源管理和保护提供参考与指导。【方法】以中国数字植物标本馆记录的马尾松分布数据为基础,利用MaxEnt模型及地理信息系统ArcGIS 10.3软件探讨马尾松当前地理分布特征及其潜在分布区,并针对代表性浓度路径(RCP) 2.6及RCP 8.5两种气候情景下未来(2050年和2070年)马尾松适宜分布范围及主要气候因子进行分析。【结果】当前马尾松高适生区覆盖的地区主要分布于秦岭—淮河线以南。浙江、福建、江西、湖北西南部、湖南、重庆、四川东南部、贵州北部、广西中部、广东北部等地区为马尾松主要分布区,海南、云南及台湾等地为零星分布区。在未来气候情景下,马尾松适生区向我国北部地区迁移,包括河南西部、山东半岛、辽东半岛、河北东部、山西南部等地区,而在云南南部零星地区不会再有马尾松自然分布。在未来两种气候情景4个条件中,相同RCP情景下,不同年限各适生区之间的差异并不明显,变化趋势大致相同;但相同年限的不同RCP情景对应的各适生区面积变化存在明显区别,RCP 8.5的影响要高于RCP 2.6。影响马尾松地理分布的主导生物气候变量为年均降水量、最干月降水量及平均气温日较差,且降水较温度的影响更大。【结论】未来气候变化将导致马尾松分布范围进一步扩大,新增分布区主要集中于当前分布区北部。应以当前马尾松适生环境为基础,针对当地气候类型、土壤条件等环境因素合理建立保护区,以便马尾松能够顺利适应新环境。     

斑块开度对树木结实和交配格局的影响：以城市油松（Pinus tabulaeformis）种群为例

以城市种植油松斑块为例,探讨了斑块开度(作为林冠开度指标)对油松交配格局和结实的影响,发现斑块开度和油松自交率呈显著正相关,并与个体结实量具有一定的相关性.其原因可能是由于斑块开度增大导致自交种子败育率下降,或者是由于孤立木接收外源花粉相对较少.另外,本研究未发现斑块开度对花粉迁入有显著影响.