Density dependence explains tree species abundance and diversity in tropical forests

The recurrent patterns in the commonness and rarity of species in ecological communities--the relative species abundance--have puzzled ecologists for more than half a century. Here we show that the framework of the current neutral theory in ecology can easily be generalized to incorporate symmetric density dependence. We can calculate precisely the strength of the rare-species advantage that is needed to explain a given RSA distribution. Previously, we demonstrated that a mechanism of dispersal limitation also fits RSA data well. Here we compare fits of the dispersal and density-dependence mechanisms for empirical RSA data on tree species in six New and Old World tropical forests and show that both mechanisms offer sufficient and independent explanations. We suggest that RSA data cannot by themselves be used to discriminate among these explanations of RSA patterns--empirical studies will be required to determine whether RSA patterns are due to one or the other mechanism, or to some combination of both.     

Logarithmic rate dependence of force networks in sheared granular materials

Many models of slow, dense granular flows assume that the internal stresses are independent of the shearing rate. In contrast, logarithmic rate dependence is found in solid-on-solid friction, geological settings and elsewhere. Here we investigate the rate dependence of stress in a slowly sheared two-dimensional system of photoelastic disks, in which we are able to determine forces on the granular scale. We find that the mean (time-averaged) stress displays a logarithmic dependence on the shear rate for plastic (irreversible) deformations. However, there is no perceivable dependence on the driving rate for elastic (reversible) deformations, such as those that occur under moderate repetitive compression. Increasing the shearing rate leads to an increase in the strength of the force network and stress fluctuations. Qualitatively, this behaviour resembles the changes associated with an increase in density. Increases in the shearing rate also lead to qualitative changes in the distributions of stress build-up and relaxation events. If shearing is suddenly stopped, stress relaxations occur with a logarithmic functional form over long timescales. This slow collective relaxation of the stress network provides a mechanism for rate-dependent strengthening.     

Some remarks for sequences of pairwise NQD random variables

We first obtain the Petrov theorem for pairwise NQD (negative quadrant dependent) random variables which may have different distributions. Some well-known results are improved and extended. Next, we give an example to clarify one of the important properties of sequences of pairwise NQD random variables, so that we can point out some mistakes that have appeared in recent published papers.     

基于改进的分形插值与SVM的股指预测模型

为了更好地分析和预测股指时间序列的短期变化趋势,提出了一种确定分形插值自由参数的新方法,由此建立了一个改进的分形插值模型,并将该模型与支持向量机模型相结合构造混合预测模型.经R/S分析可知上海证券综合指数的日收盘数据具有长程相关性,于是将混合预测模型用于分析和预测上海证券综合指数时间序列,发现混合预测模型较其他方法具有更好的拟合效果,且在短期预测方面有更高的预测精度.     

Characteristics of Ionospheric North-South Asymmetry and Their Relationship with Irregularity

Using the empirical ionospheric model, the flux-tube integrated electron density and the ratio between the F-region Pedersen conductivity and the total E- and F-region Pedersen conductivity are calculated to investigate the characteristics of the ionospheric asymmetry after sunset during a solar cycle. Furthermore, two indices representing the asymmetric strength of the parameters respectively are defined to study its relationship with the occurrences of the irregularities during different seasons and with different solar activities. The results indicate that the electron density and the Pedersen conductivity ratio show north-south remarkable hemispheric asymmetry at different solar energy levels. The asymmetric strengths represent the dependence on seasons and solar activities, and their variation depending on seasons and solar activities show a negative correlation with the occurrences of the equatorial irregularities and also have a negative relation with the linear growth rate of the generalized Rayleigh-Taylor instability.     

Drought sensitivity shapes species distribution patterns in tropical forests

Although patterns of tree species distributions along environmental gradients have been amply documented in tropical forests, mechanisms causing these patterns are seldom known. Efforts to evaluate proposed mechanisms have been hampered by a lack of comparative data on species' reactions to relevant axes of environmental variation. Here we show that differential drought sensitivity shapes plant distributions in tropical forests at both regional and local scales. Our analyses are based on experimental field assessments of drought sensitivity of 48 species of trees and shrubs, and on their local and regional distributions within a network of 122 inventory sites spanning a rainfall gradient across the Isthmus of Panama. Our results suggest that niche differentiation with respect to soil water availability is a direct determinant of both local- and regional-scale distributions of tropical trees. Changes in soil moisture availability caused by global climate change and forest fragmentation are therefore likely to alter tropical species distributions, community composition and diversity.     

Survival variability and population density in fish populations

To understand the processes that regulate the abundance and persistence of wild populations is a fundamental goal of ecology and a prerequisite for the management of living resources. Variable abundance data, however, make the demonstration of regulation processes challenging. A previously overlooked aspect in understanding how populations are regulated is the possibility that the pattern of variability--its strength as a function of population size--may be more than 'noise', thus revealing much about the characteristics of population regulation. Here we show that patterns in survival variability do provide evidence of regulation through density. Using a large, global compilation of marine, anadromous and freshwater fisheries data, we examine the relationship between the variability of survival and population abundance. The interannual variability in progeny survival increases at low adult abundance in an inversely density-dependent fashion. This pattern is consistent with models in which density dependence enters after the larval stage. The findings are compatible with very simple forms of density dependence: even a linear increase of juvenile mortality with adult density adequately explains the results. The model predictions explain why populations with strong regulation may experience large increases in variability at low densities. Furthermore, the inverse relationship between survival variability and the strength of density dependence has important consequences for fisheries management and recovery, and population persistence or extinction.     

Explaining the excess of rare species in natural species abundance distributions

The observation that a few species in ecological communities are exceptionally abundant, whereas most are rare, prompted the development of species abundance models. Nevertheless, despite the large literature on the commonness and rarity of species inspired by these pioneering studies, some widespread empirical patterns of species abundance resist easy explanation. Notable among these is the observation that in large assemblages there are more rare species than the log normal model predicts. Here we use a long-term (21-year) data set, from an estuarine fish community, to show how an ecological community can be separated into two components. Core species, which are persistent, abundant and biologically associated with estuarine habitats, are log normally distributed. Occasional species occur infrequently in the record, are typically low in abundance and have different habitat requirements; they follow a log series distribution. These distributions are overlaid, producing the negative skew that characterizes real data sets.     

Pervasive density-dependent recruitment enhances seedling diversity in a tropical forest

Negative density-dependent recruitment of seedlings, that is, seeds of a given species are less likely to become established seedlings if the density of that species is high, has been proposed to be an important mechanism contributing to the extraordinary diversity of tropical tree communities because it can potentially prevent any particular species from usurping all available space, either in close proximity to seed sources or at relatively larger spatial scales. However, density-dependent recruitment does not necessarily enhance community diversity. Furthermore, although density-dependent effects have been found at some life stages in some species, no study has shown that density-dependent recruitment affects community diversity. Here we report the results of observations in a lowland, moist forest in the Republic of Panamá in which the species identities of 386,027 seeds that arrived at 200 seed traps were compared with the species identities of 13,068 seedlings that recruited into adjacent plots over a 4-year period. Across the 200 sites, recruit seedling diversity was significantly higher than seed diversity. Part of this difference was explained by interspecies differences in average recruitment success. Even after accounting for these differences, however, negative density-dependent recruitment contributes significantly to the increase in diversity from seeds to seedling recruits.     

热带森林碳通量研究综述

综述了热带森林碳通量的研究结果，指出随着电子测量和存储技术的发展，微气象涡度相关法已应用于森林碳通量的测量和研究；热带森林是碳源还是碳汇仍是一个存在争议的问题，热带森林的利用方式以及森林火灾在很大程度上决定了热带森林是碳源还是碳汇。夜间通量测量的不准确性，水平平流以及垂直平流都会在一定程度上影响碳通量测量的准确性，因此只有尽量减小测量误差，提高数据分析及处理技术，才能更准确地了解热带森林的作用。     

Changes in global potential vegetation distributions from 1911 to 2000 as simulated by the Comprehensive Sequential Classification System approach

Vegetation classification models play an important role in studying the response of the terrestrial ecosystem to global climate change. In this paper, we study changes in global Potential Natural Vegetation (PNV) distributions using the Comprehensive Sequential Classification System (CSCS) approach, a technique that combines geographic information systems. Results indicate that on a global scale there are good agreements among maps produced by the CSCS method and the globally well-accepted Holdridge Life Zone (HLZ) and BIOME4 PNV models. The potential vegetation simulated by the CSCS approach has 6 major latitudinal zones in the northern hemisphere and 2 in the southern hemisphere. In mountainous areas it has obvious altitudinal distribution characteristics due to topographic effects. The distribution extent for different PNV classes at various periods has different characteristics. It had a decreasing trend for the tundra and alpine steppe, desert, sub-tropical forest and tropical forest categories, and an increasing trend for the temperate forest and grassland vegetation categories. The simulation of global CSCS-based PNV classes helps to understand climate-vegetation relationships and reveals the dynamics of potential vegetation distributions induced by global changes. Compared with existing statistical and equilibrium models, the CSCS approach provides similar mapping results for global PNV and has the advantage of improved simulation of grassland classes.     

强自然对流流体的有限元解法──用于化学气相淀积反应器

以冷壁化学气相淀积（ＣＶＤ）反应器中淀积ＴｉＮ涂层为对象，建立了适用于强自然对流流体的ＣＶＤ反应器模型。模型中包括流动、传热、传质和化学反应，计入了温度对物性参数的影响。通过编制求解该复杂模型的有限元程序，计算反应器中流型、温度及浓度的分布。定量计算了ＴｉＮ的淀积速率，计算值与实验值基本一致。该模型与程序不仅适用于本文所描述的淀积ＴｉＮ系统，也可以成为各种外延反应器和金属有机化学气相淀积反应器中计算传递过程的重要工具。     

热带雨林冠层树木和藤本之间光合作用特征参数比较

 丰富的藤本是热带雨林的一个典型特征,但对藤本丰富发育的原因众说纷纭.季节性干旱假说认为干旱条件下藤本具有更强的光合作用而产生竞争优势.但是,由于热带雨林树木高大,冠层浓密,对叶片光合能力的测定往往选取幼苗,或采用离体方式,而且采样过程中极难采集到冠上的阳生叶片.这些局限性降低了前期研究结果的可信度.有鉴于此,我们选择干湿季分明的热带季节雨林为研究对象,在旱季的中期,通过在热带雨林中搭建的大型冠层监测平台,原位测定了热带季节雨林代表乔木绒毛番龙眼成年株及其上缠绕的典型藤本扁担藤的光合特性.结果表明:木本绒毛番龙眼的最大羧化速率(V_cmax)、电子传输速率(J_max)、最大光合速率(A_max)和表观量子效率(AQY)方面皆较藤本植物扁担藤高,但是木本植物的暗呼吸则明显低于藤本植物.据此推测,旱季中期木本植物净碳吸收和物质积累明显优于藤本植物.这些结果与前期离体或幼苗测定的结果相反,暗示回答该问题还需要进一步的深入探讨.     

“资源诅咒”效应及传导机制研究——以中国中部36个资源型城市为例

在Eviews 8软件中分别采用OLS模型、个体固定效应模型、时间固定效应模型和时间个体双固定效应模型, 对中国中部36个地级资源型城市进行分析, 发现时间个体双固定效应模型解释能力最强。在时间个体双固定效应模型中, 自变量资源依赖度的符号为负且在5%显著性水平上显著, 证明“资源诅咒”效应存在。资源依赖度在1%的显著性水平上对制造业投入的影响为负, 制造业投入在5%的显著性水平上对实际人均GDP增长率的影响为正。经过综合分析可以得出, “资源诅咒”效应的主要传导机制是对制造业的挤出效应。在资源型城市转型发展中, 应重视吸引制造业投资, 降低政府对微观经济领域的干预程度, 构建多元化产业体系, 实现经济社会的可持续发展。     

典型屋顶太阳能光伏板风压实测研究

对一栋多功能低层建筑平屋顶上的太阳能光伏板进行风压实测,根据风压时程特性选择适当的概率密度函数对各测点的风压系数进行非线性回归分析.运用6种概率密度函数对各测点的均值和极值(正极大值和负极小值)风压系数时程以及面积平均后的极值风压系数时程进行数值拟合,比较不同概率分布的拟合效果.回归分析结果表明:均值风压系数的概率分布近似无偏分布,t分布的拟合效果最好,其次是Logistic分布、正态分布、极值I型分布;负压极小值和正压极大值风压系数的概率分布分别为左偏分布和右偏分布,极值I型分布的拟合效果最好,其次是Lognormal分布和Gamma分布,而正态分布的拟合效果最差;最不利风压系数由极值负风压控制,即光伏板的风力由吸力主导;经面积平均后的最不利风压系数建议取值-2.3.     

PECVD系统中Ar等离子体电子特性的研究

利用自行设计的可移动Langmuir探针装置对PECVD系统中Ar等离子体中的电子平均能量和电子浓度随各工艺条件的变化规律进行了研究;并成功获得了Ar等离子体中的电子平均能量和电子浓度的轴向分布和径向分布规律。此外,文中还对电子浓度和电子平均能量随各工艺参数的变化规律进行了系统的理论分析。     

Why large-scale climate indices seem to predict ecological processes better than local weather

Large-scale climatic indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation are associated with population dynamics, variation in demographic rates and values of phenotypic traits in many species. Paradoxically, these large-scale indices can seem to be better predictors of ecological processes than local climate. Using detailed data from a population of Soay sheep, we show that high rainfall, high winds or low temperatures at any time during a 3-month period can cause mortality either immediately or lagged by a few days. Most measures of local climate used by ecologists fail to capture such complex associations between weather and ecological process, and this may help to explain why large-scale, seasonal indices of climate spanning several months can outperform local climatic factors. Furthermore, we show why an understanding of the mechanism by which climate influences population ecology is important. Through simulation we demonstrate that the timing of bad weather within a period of mortality can have an important modifying influence on intraspecific competition for food, revealing an interaction between climate and density dependence that the use of large-scale climatic indices or inappropriate local weather variables might obscure.     

负三项分布的性质研究

负三项分布是一种基于伯努利试验的概率分布模型.文章以随机变量的特征函数为主要工具,研究负三项分布的若干重要性质.首先计算出负三项分布的特征函数,然后利用特征函数的性质和相关定理推出负三项分布的数学期望和方差,证明相互独立的负三项分布具有可加性,计算过程简洁,最后给出负三项分布取得概率的最大值点.     

我国城镇化进程中低碳转型的研究

近年来城镇化的快速推进对于我国的经济发展起着十分重要的作用,但是随着城镇化进程的加快也产生了一些负面效应。基于2001～2012年我国各省市面板数据,利用改进的STIRPAT模型对我国碳排放量影响因素进行了实证分析,分析表明;总体上,我国城镇化对碳排放有正向作用,但城镇化对碳排放的影响存在区域差异性。同时,能源强度对碳排放的影响不太显著,产业结构对碳排放的影响也存在区域差异,政府政策支持对碳排放起反向作用。     

基于密度依赖模型的建筑企业死亡率

基于密度依赖理论及其分析方法,研究建筑企业死亡率密度依赖过程及其影响因素,并以江苏省建筑企业1989--2007年数据为例,建立企业一年数据结构,运用Cox比例风险模型进行实证分析.研究结果表明,产业层面的演化过程对建筑企业的死亡具有显著影响,但这种影响并不符合一般产业中密度依赖模型所得出的结果.种群密度对建筑企业死亡率的影响主要表现为随种群密度的增大而不断上升,但这一过程也同时受到组织年龄的影响.除此之外,建筑企业规模、宏观环境因素等也对企业死亡率有影响作用.