GLOBAL STABILITY AND HOPF BIFURCATION OF AN SIS EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH TIME DELAYS

1 IntroductionFor epidemic model with delays, many people have done a lot of work and many valuableresults have been obtained. In SIS ePidemiologic models, susceptibles become infectious aftersufficieot contact with an infective and then become susceptible again after they have recoveredfrom the infection. SIS models with a time delay in the infectious class and a constan poWulation size were analyzed by Cooke and Yorke[1] and Greenberg and Hoppensteadt[2J. TheyfOund that aJl solutions a…     

STUDY ON AN SIS EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH TIME VARIANT DELAY

In this paper, we study an SIS epidemic model with a time variant delay. By means of Liapunov functional, some sufficient conditions of global stability to endemic equilibrium and disease free equilibrium have been obtained. The influence of time delay on the stability of equilibria is displayed.     

Global Dynamics for an HIV Infection Model with Crowley-Martin Functional Response and Two Distributed Delays

In this paper, an HIV dynamics model with two distributed intracellular delays incorporating Crowley-Martin functional response infection rate is investigated. The authors take into account multiple stage disease transmission and the latently infected cells (not yet producing virus) in our system. The authors consider nonnegativity, boundedness of solutions, and global asymptotic stability of the system. By constructing suitable Lyapunov functionals and using the Lyapunov-LaSalle invariance principle, the authors prove the global stability of the infected (endemic) equilibrium and the diseasefree equilibrium for time delays. The authors have proven that if the basic reproduction number R₀ is less than unity, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and if R₀ is greater than unity, then the infected equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. The results obtained show that the global dynamic behaviors of the model are completely determined by the basic reproduction number R₀ and that the time delay does not affect the global asymptotic properties of the model.     

线控系统协调优化模型及其改进粒子群算法研究

为合理控制线控系统,控制参数应协调设置.本文基于分层递阶技术优化设计控制参数.首先将元胞传播模型(CTM)进行改进,考虑出口道车队离散延误,建立干线路段及交叉口分流、合流交通流模型,使CTM适于网络交通流分析.然后,针对线控系统现状研究忽视共用周期优化的问题,基于控制参数间的相依关系,考虑上、下行相位差关系,建立两级递阶控制模型;协调级根据主次干道车流状况,以系统总延误最小为目标同时优化共用周期和双向相位差;控制级优化绿信比使所控交叉口延误最小.同时,采用分段变化的惯性因子选择机制改进粒子群优化算法.最后,将协调优化模型及其粒子群算法应用于某仿真线控系统,比较研究发现协调控制效果良好.     

改进的基于三阶段故障过程状态检测模型

基于维修实践中设备两阶段故障过程,利用延迟时间的概念和当前时刻的状态检测历史信息,建立了改进的基于三阶段故障过程的状态检测模型。该模型更接近于设备的真实运行过程。设备运行有4种可能状态出现:正常状态、非严重缺陷状态、严重缺陷状态和故障状态。当检测到系统处于非严重缺陷状态时,采用延迟预防维修策略建立模型。以单位时间设备运行平均费用最小为决策目标,优化检测间隔和阈值时间,通过参考阈值时间来决定是否实施延迟预防维修决策。最后将提出的模型应用于实际案例中,验证了改进的基于三阶段故障过程的状态检测模型的有效性。     

考虑导弹动态延迟特性的滑模导引律设计

基于平面拦截问题,考虑导弹自动驾驶仪一阶动态延迟特性,应用滑模变结构控制方法,以零化视线角速率为目的,设计了一种滑模导引律。该导引律可使得滑模面在有限时间内收敛至零,进入滑模面后可确保视线角速率在制导结束前收敛于零,从而保证高制导精度,且导引律中的变结构项只要大于目标加速度的变化率即可保证制导系统的有限时间收敛性和鲁棒性,从而大大降低了制导系统的抖动。最后以空中拦截为例,仿真验证了在导弹自动驾驶仪存在大延迟和目标做大机动逃逸下,该导引律具有良好的制导性能和高制导精度。     

弹底引信燃气动力保险开关的启动特性

新型燃气动力保险开关用于弹底引信,该机构利用火箭弹发动机燃气压力实现电子延期保险的接电。首先建立了开关的气体动力学模型,用VisualBasic编写了数值仿真程序,计算得到火箭内弹道阶段开关内部气体状态变化和活塞的运动过程,并分析了关键结构参数的影响情况。该火箭弹的保险开关接电过程时间小于0.72ms,高低温条件下的差异小,不足以影响武器系统性能。该机构可作为火箭、导弹武器一种可靠的保险件。     

捕食者具有传染病的时滞捕食系统模型分析

提出了一类捕食者具有传染病的时滞生态-流行病模型.该模型中,捕食者和食饵均具有密度制约,并引入时滞对模型加以讨论.利用特征根法、函数分析法及线性化方法对模型动力学特性进行分析.证明了模型平衡点的存在性并分析其渐近稳定性,得出系统平衡点的渐近稳定性和Hopf分支存在的充分条件.     

一种考虑工艺波动的RC互连延时统计模型

基于Elmore延时模型,提出了一种考虑工艺波动的RC互连延时统计模型,在给定互连参数波动范围条件下,利用该模型可以得到互连延时均值和标准差的解析表达式,与目前国内外互连工艺波动研究中广泛采用的Hspice蒙特卡罗(Monte Carlo)分析方法相比,所提模型在确保计算精度的前提下大大缩短了计算时间,可以应用于VLSI的互连延时分析和优化设计中。     

基于FPGA的改进型最小均方自适应时延估计器

提高时延估计器的运算速度和时延分辨力是实现垂直线阵水下被动声目标快速、精确定位的关键。将最小均方自适应时延估计算法中原有的按“滤波-误差更新-权系数更新”严格依次递进的顺序迭代运算,优化为只包含误差更新和权系数更新操作的全并行乘/加运算。改进后的自适应时延估计器结构紧凑,并未改变其误差收敛特性。消声水池缩比试验表明,基于现场可编程逻辑门阵列(field programmable gate array, FPGA)实现的改进型最小均方自适应时延估计器能够在不需要流水线或时序控制单元的前提下提高数据处理速度,且具有一定的抗噪声干扰性能。     

A new cascading failure model with delay time in congested complex networks

Cascading failures often occur in congested complex networks. Cascading failures can be expressed as a three-phase process: generation, diffusion, and dissipation of congestion. Different from the betweenness centrality, a congestion function is proposed to represent the extent of congestion on a given node. Inspired by the restart process of a node, we introduce the concept of “delay time,” during which the overloaded node cannot receive or forward any traffic, so an intergradation between permanent removal and nonremoval is built and the flexibility of the presented model is demonstrated. Considering the connectivity of a network before and after cascading failures is not cracked because the overloaded node are not removed from network permanently in our model, a new evaluation function of network efficiency is also proposed to measure the damage caused by cascading failures. Finally, we investigate the effects of network structure and size, delay time, processing ability, and traffic generation speed on congestion propagation. Cascading processes composed of three phases and some factors affecting cascade propagation are uncovered as well.     

网络流量的神经网络自适应Smith预估补偿控制

网络的时延对基于速率反馈的ATM网络的ABR流量控制具有极大的不利影响，Smith预估补偿是克服大纯滞后影响的有效手段，然而其对时延的预估误差非常敏感，实际网络时延的不确定性往往使其难以取得满意的效果。该文将在线学习的神经网络自适应控制器与Smith预估补偿相结合，很好地克服了网络的时延及其不确定性对流量控制的不利影响，从而使信源的发送速率能快速响应网络状态的变化。与PIDSmith预估补偿控制相比，控制的适应性和鲁棒性更好，更适用于实际网络，且为保证信元不溢出及链路带宽充分利用所需的缓冲容量更低。     

综合环境因素及延误的信号配时优化仿真研究

提出了综合考虑环境因素及延误的交叉口信号配时优化方法;选择遗传算法作为优化工具,建立了以减少机动车尾气排放及交叉口平均延误为总目标,以信号周期时长和各相位有效绿灯时间为优化参数的信号配时优化模型,并利用微观仿真模型VISSIM及MATALAB、Visual Basic 6.0编程语言,开发了相应的算法程序;最后针对实际案例进行了仿真分析,验证了方法的合理性和可行性.     

Stability Analysis and Performance Evaluation of Delayed Bilateral Telerobotic Systems over a Lossy Communication Channel

The focus of this paper is to address a novel control technique for stability and transparency analysis of bilateral telerobotic systems in the presence of data loss and time delay in the communication channel. Different control strategies have been reported to compensate the effects of time delay in the communication channel;however, most of them result in poor performance under data loss. First, a model for data loss is proposed using a finite series representation of a set of periodic continuous pulses.To improve the performance and data reconstruction, a holder circuits is also introduced. The passivity of the overall system is provided via the wave variable technique based on the proposed model for the data loss. The stability analysis of the system is then derived using the Lyapunov theorem under the time delay and the data loss. Finally, experimental results are given to illustrate the capability of the proposed control technique.     

全系统网络延迟分析方法

针对飞行仿真系统实时性要求高的特点,构建了以以太网、实时反射内存网及现场总线技术等多种技术为主的飞行仿真系统分布式网络结构。分析了影响系统延迟的因素及其改进的方法,提出并建立了以太网、实时反射内存网及现场总线技术的延迟计算的数学模型,并提出了一种综合估算全系统时间延迟的方法。这些方法在相关的产品研发中得以运用并取得很好的实时性效果。     

时滞对象的自适应Smith广义预测控制

针对时滞被控对象提出了一种自适应Smith广义预测控制器方案。在广义预测控制中 ,以Smith预估器建立被控对象预测模型 ,并基于零频率时的模型匹配和有遗忘因子的递推最小二乘算法在线辨识系统参数和时滞 ,不断修正Smith预估器模型和控制器参数 ,有效克服系统参数和时滞变化对系统的影响 ,动态响应快 ,跟踪效果好。仿真结果证明了这种方法的有效性。     

高吞吐量低时延太赫兹超高速无线网络MAC接入协议

针对现有能够应用于太赫兹超高速无线网络的能量和频谱感知的媒介接入控制(energy and spectrum aware media access control, ES MAC)及IEEE802.15.3c协议存在的时隙申请量未及时更新、超帧结构不合理及分配时隙时未合并同一对节点之间的时隙请求等问题,提出了一种高吞吐量低时延MAC(high throughput low delay MAC,HLMAC)协议。通过设计一种新的超帧结构,使节点及时得到时隙分配信息,大大降低数据接入时延;通过更新时隙请求量和合并同一对节点的时隙请求,增加了数据发送量,提高了网络吞吐量。理论分析表明了HLMAC协议的有效性,仿真结果显示它比ES MAC协议增加了65.7%的网络吞吐量,同时降低了30%的接入时延。     

Global stability of an epidemic model for vector-borne disease

<正> This paper considers an epidemic model of a vector-borne disease which has the vectormediatedtransmission only.The incidence term is of the bilinear mass-action form.It is shown that theglobal dynamics is completely determined by the basic reproduction number R_0.If R_01,the diseasefreeequilibrium is globally stable and the disease dies out.If R_01,a unique endemic equilibrium isglobally stable in the interior of the feasible region and the disease persists at the endemic equilibrium.Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the results.     

中国高技术产业研发创新效率研究——基于资源约束型两阶段DEA模型的新视角

针对传统数据包络分析（DEA）模型的不足,结合高技术产业研发创新过程的特征,将其研发创新过程分解为技术开发和经济转化两个前后相续的子阶段,考虑“子阶段之间的关联关系”和“初始投入在两个子阶段间的分配结构”,构建了资源约束型两阶段DEA模型,从而实现了对高技术产业研发创新效率测算方法的改进,运用该模型实证测评了中国高技术产业17个细分行业研发创新的整体及各子阶段的效率,并同时得到初始投入的配置信息. 与现有研究相比,该模型突破了传统DEA模型无视高技术产业研发创新系统内部组织结构的限制. 实证结果表明：中国高技术产业17个细分行业不论是从研发创新整体上,还是从研发创新的两个子阶段,效率值都偏低,均有很大的提升空间;根据高技术产业研发创新两阶段效率矩阵图可知,除了电子计算机外部设备制造业等3个细分行业属于高效集约型研发创新,大部分行业表现为两个子阶段效率双差或一强一差;根据17个细分行业所隶属的5个产业大类来分析,电子计算机及办公设备制造业研发创新过程的整体效率最高、航空航天器制造业最低.     

临近空间非弹道式目标跟踪修正变结构滤波

以X-51A和HTV-2为代表的临近空间高超声速飞行器采用非弹道式机动飞行方式,飞行速度快而且其加速度不规则,难以精确估计其运动状态。针对临近空间目标4种典型的非弹道式机动模式,设计了一种修正变结构交互式多模型(modified variable structure interacting multiple model, MVSIMM)算法。该算法采用当前统计模型作为中心模型,左右两边采用匀速转弯模型,相比传统变结构多模型算法, 提高了模型切换速度,实现更加实时,可以更高精度跟踪临近空间目标飞行器。仿真结果表明,针对4种非弹道式机动模式,修正变结构交互式多模型算法效果优于固定结构多模型滤波方法。