Are household subjective forecasts of personal finances accurate and useful? A directional analysis of the British Household Panel Survey

The purpose of the paper is to analyse the accuracy and usefulness of household subjective forecasts of personal finance. We use non‐parametric directional analysis to assess the subjective forecasts which are based on qualitative judgments. Using the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) we are able to analyse a large number of individuals over a number of years. We also take into account individual characteristics such as gender, age, education and employment status when assessing their subjective forecasts. The paper extends the existing literature in two ways: the accuracy and usefulness of subjective forecasts, based on directional analysis, are assessed at the household level for the first time. Secondly, we adapt and extend the methods of directional analysis, which are applied to the household panel or longitudinal survey. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Real‐time or current vintage: does the type of data matter for forecasting and model selection?

In this paper we investigate the impact of data revisions on forecasting and model selection procedures. A linear ARMA model and nonlinear SETAR model are considered in this study. Two Canadian macroeconomic time series have been analyzed: the real‐time monetary aggregate M3 (1977–2000) and residential mortgage credit (1975–1998). The forecasting method we use is multi‐step‐ahead non‐adaptive forecasting. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Food for thought?: the relations between the Royal Society Food Committee and government, 1915-19

This paper traces the relationship between the food committees of the Royal Society and government during the First World War, concentrating on the period up to the resignation of Lord Devonport as first Food Controller. It argues that, in the context of a radical public science discourse emanating from some sections of the scientific community and greatly increased contacts between scientists and the government, the food scientists of the committees were moved to press for a formalization of the committees' role in food policy. The members constantly manoeuvered to achieve this aim, but also used a network of alternative channels into the heart of the policy process to get their findings translated into hard policy. In doing so, they explicitly rehearsed characteristic 'public science' arguments. In the institutional blur of wartime state-science relations, scientists often got close to the policy-making process. Post-War, the state swiftly moved to clarify the position: science was to be given more money, but was to be specifically blocked by new administrative arrangements embodied in the Haldane Report on the Machinery of Government from having any say in the core areas of general policy, the expert domain of the generalist policy-maker.     

Plasma enteroglucagon,peptide YY and gastrin in rats deprived of luminal nutrition,and after urogastrone-EGF administration. A proliferative role for PYY in the intestinal epithelium?

Intestinal tissue mass was significantly reduced throughout the gastrointestinal tract (p<0.001) of=" intravenously=" fed=" (tpn)=" rats.=" urogastrone-epidermal=" growth=" factor,=" (uro-egf),=" reversed=" these=" changes.=" although=" plasma=" enteroglucagon=" and=" gastrin=" levels=" showed=" a=" small=" increase=" with=" uro-egf,=" this=" was=" far=" less=" than=" the=" gut=" tissue=" weight=" change,=" suggesting=" that=" it=" was=" unlikely=" that=" they=" were=" involved=" in=" modulating=" the=" proliferative=" response=" of=" the=" intestine=" to=" uro-egf.=" peptide=" tyrosine=" tyrosine=" (pyy)=" levels=" were=" however=" significantly=" increased=" by=" uro-egf,=" indicating=" that=" pyy=" may=" possibly=" have=" a=" role=" in=" the=" modulation=" of=" intestinal=" cell=">We thank the Cancer Research Campaign for their financial assistance and acknowledge the technical assistance of Mr W. Lenton.