Opportunity Initiated Systems Design

This paper proposes a design theory of how opportunities might be used to facilitate change within a system, particularly an educational system. Opportunity Initiated Systems Design (OISD) is a system design model that retains the values and goals of Idealized Systems Design (ISD) yet incorporates other models of systemic change to form a simpler, more practical theory of systems design. Traditional barriers to ISD are discussed, used as the basis for describing suggest an alternative theory of systems design. The paper articulates the values and goals of OISD and outlines a theory of OISD. The six phases of OISD are presented, including specific guidelines for implementing OISD. Limitations of OISD and implications for further research are discussed.     

Comparative Analysis and Fuzzy Selection of Information System Development Approach

ＣｏｍｐａｒａｔｉｖｅＡｎａｌｙｓｉｓａｎｄＦｕｚｚｙＳｅｌｅｃｔｉｏｎｏｆＩｎｆｏｒｍａｔｉｏｎＳｙｓｔｅｍＤｅｖｅｌｏｐｍｅｎｔＡｐｐｒｏａｃｈ⒇ＣＨＥＮＸｉａｏｈｏｎｇ＊ＬＩＵＭａｉ＊ＹＡＳＵＨＩＫＯＴａｋａｈａｒａ＊＊＊ＣｏｌｅｇｅｏｆＢｕｓ...     

Meta-Action Research on a Leadership Development Program: A Process Model for Life-long Learning

Our purpose in this paper is to contribute to the field of systemic practice by sharing a process of professional learning based on meta-action research. The process emerged as we engaged with evaluation data from a leadership development program (LDP). The aim of this LDP had been to help leaders design their team projects on poverty reduction through action research methods in six African countries. As facilitators of the program we discuss our experiential learning based on critical reflection. We explain how meta-action research can transform understandings of ways to improve professional practice in future applications. We present three process models: (1) a model of reflection on action, (2) a meta-action research model, and (3) a model for lifelong learning through meta-action research. These models may be of benefit and interest to readers who facilitate systemic practice and action research in education, higher education, communities, industry and government.     

灌区灌溉规划模型研究

比较详细地讨论了灌区灌溉规划问题,并提出了一种基于灰色系统理论的灌溉规划模型,该模型比较符合我国众多灌区的实际管理水平,且具有运算简单,适应性强的特点。对于任何一个实际的灌溉规划问题,不管目标函数和约束条件如何,本文给出的这一模型均可提供较为合理的成果,用于指导灌区实践。本文最后以简单示例说明了该模型的应用。     

虚拟框架和模糊数学用于修正数学模型

应用中的数学模型一般需经常加以修改 ,才能满足实际要求。当一个模型已用程序实现后 ,必须设法在现有程序及其计算结果的基础上加以完善 ,才能事半功倍。为此 ,提出一种将力学中的虚拟框架位移分析方法和模糊数学相结合对数学模型进行修正的新方法。此方法被用于某化工厂的温度控制问题 ,结果表明方法简捷有效     

The Application of Critical Systems Thinking to Enhance the Effectiveness of a University Information System

Faced with the common problem of dissatisfaction with the outcome of investments in information systems (IS), the IS community has long sought ways to improve information systems development (ISD). This paper reports on action research (AR) that sought to improve the effectiveness a UK university’s student record system (SRS), which had exhibited persistent problems. Critical systems thinking (CST) is seen to have value for ISD and was used to guide the AR. In the first stage of this research, the issues with the initial design of the SRS were identified to have largely resulted from insufficient elicitation of the underlying assumptions about, and perspectives on, complex organisational issues. The second stage centred on examining the situation from an “ought” perspective analysing what should be done and how, in order to develop creative solutions to the problems uncovered. The third stage involved recommending solutions to address the problems identified in order to improve the effectiveness of the SRS. Overall, the AR indicates that CST enables those involved to view the design and implementation of the SRS as a holistic system, critically reflect upon broad and complex human, technological and organisational issues from different perspectives, and thereby identify creative solutions. The main contribution of this research is in generating support for an ISD intervention guided by CST. The results of, and the understanding developed from, this intervention are likely to be relevant to the problems that frequently occur in similar situations.     

Systems thinking for information systems development

Although many information systems development methods (ISDMs) are available, past experience indicates that none of them completely supports the design process. One of the major problems is that the traditional ISDMs represents a poor match for some subsystems or dimensions involved in the information systems design (ISD). This paper presents an integration and interpretation of recent research on the mismatch of the ISDMs with the ISD process and suggests that systems ideas can be used to learn about and clarify our perceptions of the ISD processes. First, some important systems concepts such as systems, subsystem, dimensionality, system types, and characteristics are introduced. Second, some lessons of mismatch learned in the past that are related to those systems concepts are discussed. The discussion includes experiences learned through the ISD process such as communication problems, inadequate analysis of systems maintenance, lack of understanding of the relationship between the nature of the subsystem/dimension to be represented and the selection of tools, difficulties in integrating subsystems and dimensions, as well as Brooks' Law along with others. Third, some recommendations are given concerning how to avoid mismatch with a systems concept phase. Fourth, some guidelines are provided for implementing the tasks of the systems concept phase. Finally, a number of areas where research appears needed are mentioned.     

基于参数学习的GARCH动态无穷活动率Lévy过程的欧式期权定价

在股票价格中引入漂移率、波动率和随机跳跃三种状态， 建立动态状态空间模型， 并通过局部风险中性定价关系（RNVR）推导无套利定价模型. 以非高斯条件ARMA-NGARCH为基准模型， 构建S&P500指数的离散动态Lévy过程， 并基于序贯贝叶斯的参数学习方法， 进行模型估计和期权定价研究. 结果表明： 动态Lévy过程能够联合刻画时变漂移率、条件波动率和无穷活动率等特征， 且贝叶斯方法的引入提高了期权隐含波动率的定价精度. 同时， 无穷活动率模型在期权定价方面具有显著优势. 在五类滤波中， 无损粒子滤波估计精度最高， 速降调和稳态过程（RDTS）的期权定价误差最小， 而非高斯模型在收益率预测方面没有表现出显著的差异.     

基于元胞自动机的交通模型综述

对基于元胞自动机的交通模型进行综述，将其分为单车道模型、多车道模型和城市交通模型三类。NaSch模型是最重要的单车道模型，经过改进能够再现许多重要的交通流特性。换道是多车道模型的核心。围绕着动机产生和安全要求提出了多种换道规则，最近的模型能够再现密度反转等异常现象。城市交通模型从系统角度研究了网络交通流的相变规律，近期出现了网络模型与多车道模型相结合的趋势。以TRANSIMS为代表的微观仿真平台在大规模路网中得到了成功应用。然而CA交通模型在方法论上存在不足。一些实证规律未能再现，其实际应用也较少。     

三维空间视听一体化仿真系统

可听化和可视化是构建虚拟视听环境的两个重要方面，本文结合几何声学原理、计算机技术和信号处理理论，研制了一种三维空间视听一体化仿真系统CAVS。文中给出了这一系统的主要算法和系统的设计方法。从程序运行情况和虚拟结果来看：该系统既具有良好的可视化功能，又有产生准确度较好的虚拟声学效果。     

Kohonen自组织网络在混沌时间序列预测中的应用(Ⅱ)

继续探讨 Kohonen自组织神经网络在构造径向基函数预测模型时的应用 ,研究了该模型对含有噪声的混沌时间序列的预测问题以及与嵌入维数的关系 .     

Kohonen自组织网络在混沌时间序列预测中的应用(Ⅱ)

继续探讨 Kohonen自组织神经网络在构造径向基函数预测模型时的应用 ,研究了该模型对含有噪声的混沌时间序列的预测问题以及与嵌入维数的关系 .     

单供货商多销售商联合生产库存模型

在一般的供货商与销售商联合生产库存模型中均做如下假定:在一个生产周期内任意连续两次供货量之间的比值是相同的.放松了上述的假定,建立了单供货商多销售商确定型联合生产库存模型,给出了寻求最优生产和供货策略简单方法.并且用数字实例证实了本模型的特例———单供货商单销售商联合库存模型所得到的最优平均总费用优于已有的此类模型.     

雷达测量系统误差的残差诊断方法

针对在MISTRAM系统测量中经常可能在某些测元上出现较大系统误差的问题 ,提出了一种在雷达测量中用于识别系统误差项的残差诊断方法。其基本思路是依次去掉每个测元 ,联合其它测元求解目标参数 ,得到模型的残差 ,通过分析残差的特性可识别系统误差项。实际计算表明 ,该方法是有效的     

虚拟样机多学科设计优化问题建模研究

针对虚拟样机多学科设计优化框架对多学科问题描述的需求,对多学科设计优化问题的建模方法进行研究,提出用XML语言对多学科优化问题模型进行描述。通过分析多学科设计优化问题模型特点,得出多学科设计优化问题模型及其子模型的形式化描述,并给出其中一个主要模型的XMLSchema描述规范。开发了通用多学科设计优化问题建模工具,用于基于Web的虚拟样机多学科设计优化框架中的求解问题模型的输入,并给出某型导弹多学科设计优化问题的建模实例。实践表明建模方法和建模工具方便可行。     

基于MapReduce的分布式改进随机森林学生就业数据分类模型研究

教育数据挖掘(educational data mining)是当代教育信息化发展的前沿研究领域,正在吸引越来越多教育学家和数据科学家的关注."大数据"时代背景下,随着数据处理规模的不断激增,现有的数据挖掘模型在单一处理节点的计算能力遭遇瓶颈,各类面向大数据处理的分布式计算框架应运而生.借助这些框架,面向解决高校就业数据挖掘问题的机器学习模型便可以满足未来大规模数据处理的需求,在未来数据集体量庞大的信息集成系统中为数据挖掘和决策支持提供帮助.以此为背景,本研究对比现有数据模型对研究目标对象的分类性能,提出了以引入输入特征加权系数来计算特征的信息增益作为特征最优分裂评判指标的改进随机森林模型来提升数据分类性能,通过仿真测试改进模型对于现有模型分类性能的提升情况,与此同时为解决大数据时代背景下面向海量数据分类任务的单节点性能瓶颈问题,提出了基于分布式改进随机森林算法的大规模学生就业数据分类预测模型.通过使用MapReduce分布式计算框架实现已训练模型在本地磁盘与分布式文件系统之间的序列化写入与反序列化加载过程,进而实现了基于改进随机森林模型的大规模数据分类模型的分布式扩展.     

基于神经网络的异常入侵检测系统

针对神经网络检测器本身的网络结构和算法进行改造可获得好的性能,但无法从根本上解决误报率和漏报率等问题,通过对程序行为的深入研究,对程序行为进行动态建模,提出了一个应用BP神经网络检测器针对程序行为异常的入侵检测模型,从而更准确地发现程序行为的异常。通过Apache服务器为例论证其可行性。     

Power-Based Arbitrary Decisional Actions in the Resolution of MIS Project Issues: A Project Manager's Action Research Perspective

As a management information systems (MIS) project manager and an action researcher, the author examined, over time, the influence on information system development (ISD) of the informal sociopolitical organizational actions. The paper reports two cases of action research findings concerning the effect on ISD project implementation processes of power-based arbitrary decisional actions in bureaucratic environments. The research focused on the relationship of such unilateral actions to the interconnected subprocesses of deliberate and conscious attempts by the ISD project members to define and resolve system implementation issues. A suggested conceptual framework for the issue-resolution processes (IRP's) and obstacle-coping processes (OCP's) is based on the author's IRP/OCP-related behavioral constructs and theoretical models dealing with soft-systems issues, especially appreciative system theory and soft-systems methodology, and innovative flexible, "complementarist" (Sinn, 1998) or pluralist problem-solving approaches.     

一类离散灰色模型及其预测效果研究

GM(1,1)模型是灰色系统理论中最重要的内容之一,针对该模型在预测时出现的预测精度问题进行讨论,进而建立了新的离散灰色模型:始点固定离散灰色模型(SDGM)和终点固定离散灰色模型(EDGM),运用大量的数据模拟和预测,将新建立的2个模型和GM(1,1)模型的进行效果比较,发现新建立的2个模型均比GM(1,1)模型有更高的模拟精度和预测精度.     

考虑环境影响的三阶段组合效率测度模型的改进及在研发效率测度中的应用

在比较现有考虑环境因素或/与统计噪音的三阶段组合效率测度模型的基础上，通过引入满足平移不变性的幅度调整测度（RAM）模型与Tobit回归相组合，构建了一个灵活的、无需强制性正向调整环境因素差异性影响的三阶段组合效率测度改进模型--RAM-Tobit-RAM.相对现有模型，改进的组合模型充分利用了RAM模型非径向与非定向测度特点，同时从投入与产出两个方向全面考虑径向与非径向松弛；更为重要的是，充分借助RAM模型平移不变性的优点克服了现有组合模型需借助最值强制性正向转化调整后的投入或/和产出以处理非正值的不足，降低效率估计的偏误.实证研究部分借助这一组合分析程序比较分析了中国省域研发效率.