Large differences in tropical aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere and Earth's surface

The effect of radiative forcing by anthropogenic aerosols is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate predictions. Direct observations of the forcing are therefore needed, particularly for the poorly understood tropical aerosols. Here we present an observational method for quantifying aerosol forcing to within +/-5 per cent. We use calibrated satellite radiation measurements and five independent surface radiometers to quantify the aerosol forcing simultaneously at the Earth's surface and the top of the atmosphere over the tropical northern Indian Ocean. In winter, this region is covered by anthropogenic aerosols of sulphate, nitrate, organics, soot and fly ash from the south Asian continent. Accordingly, mean clear-sky solar radiative heating for the winters of 1998 and 1999 decreased at the ocean surface by 12 to 30 Wm(-2), but only by 4 to 10 Wm(-2) at the top of the atmosphere. This threefold difference (due largely to solar absorption by soot) and the large magnitude of the observed surface forcing both imply that tropical aerosols might slow down the hydrological cycle.     

Strong radiative heating due to the mixing state of black carbon in atmospheric aerosols

Aerosols affect the Earth's temperature and climate by altering the radiative properties of the atmosphere. A large positive component of this radiative forcing from aerosols is due to black carbon--soot--that is released from the burning of fossil fuel and biomass, and, to a lesser extent, natural fires, but the exact forcing is affected by how black carbon is mixed with other aerosol constituents. From studies of aerosol radiative forcing, it is known that black carbon can exist in one of several possible mixing states; distinct from other aerosol particles (externally mixed) or incorporated within them (internally mixed), or a black-carbon core could be surrounded by a well mixed shell. But so far it has been assumed that aerosols exist predominantly as an external mixture. Here I simulate the evolution of the chemical composition of aerosols, finding that the mixing state and direct forcing of the black-carbon component approach those of an internal mixture, largely due to coagulation and growth of aerosol particles. This finding implies a higher positive forcing from black carbon than previously thought, suggesting that the warming effect from black carbon may nearly balance the net cooling effect of other anthropogenic aerosol constituents. The magnitude of the direct radiative forcing from black carbon itself exceeds that due to CH4, suggesting that black carbon may be the second most important component of global warming after CO2 in terms of direct forcing.     

Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles

The assessment of uncertainties in global warming projections is often based on expert judgement, because a number of key variables in climate change are poorly quantified. In particular, the sensitivity of climate to changing greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere and the radiative forcing effects by aerosols are not well constrained, leading to large uncertainties in global warming simulations. Here we present a Monte Carlo approach to produce probabilistic climate projections, using a climate model of reduced complexity. The uncertainties in the input parameters and in the model itself are taken into account, and past observations of oceanic and atmospheric warming are used to constrain the range of realistic model responses. We obtain a probability density function for the present-day total radiative forcing, giving 1.4 to 2.4 W m-2 for the 5-95 per cent confidence range, narrowing the global-mean indirect aerosol effect to the range of 0 to -1.2 W m-2. Ensemble simulations for two illustrative emission scenarios suggest a 40 per cent probability that global-mean surface temperature increase will exceed the range predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but only a 5 per cent probability that warming will fall below that range.     

Dusty cloud radiative forcing derived from satellite data for middle latitude regions of East Asia

The dusty cloud radiative forcing over the middle latitude regions of East Asia was estimated by using the 2-year (July 2002?June 2004) data of collocated clouds and the Earth’s radiant energy system (CERES) scanner and moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) from Aqua Edition 1B SSF (single scanner footprint). The dusty cloud is defined as the cloud in dust storm environment or dust contaminated clouds. For clouds growing in the presence of dust, the instantaneous short-wave (SW) forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is about -275.7 W/m² for cloud over dust (COD) region. The clouds developing in no-dust cloud (CLD) regions yield the most negative short-wave (SW) forcing (-311.0 W/m²), which is about 12.8% stronger than those in COD regions. For long-wave (LW) radiative forcing, the no-dust cloud (CLD) is around 102.8 W/m², which is 20% less than the LW forcing from COD regions. The instantaneous TOA net radiative forcing for the CLD region is about -208.2 W/m², which is 42.1% larger than the values of COD regions. The existence of dust aerosols under clouds significantly reduces the cooling effect of clouds.     

Radiative forcing due to dust aerosol over east Asia-north Pacific region during spring, 2001

Atmosphericaerosolsinfluencetheradiationbudgetoftheatmosphere-terrestrialsystem,andthereforeinflu-encetheclimate.Dustaerosolisconsideredtobeacriticalfactortoclimateforcingamongotherkindsofaerosols,whichaccountsfor30percentofaerosolloadingandop-ticaldepth[1].Therearelargeuncertaintiesinthequantita-tiveassessmentsoftheradiativeeffectofdustatthepre-sentday,involvingvariousfactors:refractiveindices,par-ticlesizedistribution,atmosphericaerosolloading,parti-cleshape,etc.[2].Dustaerosolgenerallyorigi…     

Observational evidence of a change in radiative forcing due to the indirect aerosol effect

Anthropogenic aerosols enhance cloud reflectivity by increasing the number concentration of cloud droplets, leading to a cooling effect on climate known as the indirect aerosol effect. Observational support for this effect is based mainly on evidence that aerosol number concentrations are connected with droplet concentrations, but it has been difficult to determine the impact of these indirect effects on radiative forcing. Here we provide observational evidence for a substantial alteration of radiative fluxes due to the indirect aerosol effect. We examine the effect of aerosols on cloud optical properties using measurements of aerosol and cloud properties at two North American sites that span polluted and clean conditions-a continental site in Oklahoma with high aerosol concentrations, and an Arctic site in Alaska with low aerosol concentrations. We determine the cloud optical depth required to fit the observed shortwave downward surface radiation. We then use a cloud parcel model to simulate the cloud optical depth from observed aerosol properties due to the indirect aerosol effect. From the good agreement between the simulated indirect aerosol effect and observed surface radiation, we conclude that the indirect aerosol effect has a significant influence on radiative fluxes.     

亚洲地区沙尘和人为气溶胶的分布及直接气候效应

利用耦合气溶胶化学过程的高分辨率区域气候模式RegCM4,模拟研究了2000~2009年亚洲地区沙尘和3种人为气溶胶（硫酸盐、黑碳、有机碳）的时空分布和直接气候效应。结果表明,模拟的气溶胶光学厚度在沙尘源区附近较为准确,但在人为活动影响较大的地区偏小。4种气溶胶的综合作用引起大气层顶负的辐射强迫,从而造成了地表气温的下降。降水方面,冬夏两季气溶胶对模拟区域的影响都以降水减少为主,这与气溶胶增加了大气稳定度,减少了地表蒸发并产生了偏北风距平有关。沙尘和人为气溶胶各自都能引起气温的下降和降水的减少,两类气溶胶都能造成的偏北风距平对我国南方降水的减少有重要作用。在人类活动密集区,人为气溶胶引起的气候效应约占总的4种气溶胶气候效应的50%。     

Dust direct radiative effects on the earth-atmosphere system over east Asia: Early spring cooling and late spring warming

Focusing on three dust storms occurring in spring 2001,we developed a detailed aerosol parameterization scheme and integrated it in a radiative transfer model to characterize possible impacts of solar altitude angle on dust direct radiative effects over China desert regions and the North Pacific,using actual daily solar altitude angles.Increasing solar altitude angle from early spring (or winter) to late spring (or summer) leads to increase of positive clear sky radiative forcing,and decrease of negative radiative forcing due to dust aerosols at the top of the atmosphere.Because solar altitude angle increases from early to late spring,dust-clear sky radiative forcing may change from negative to positive at the top of atmosphere,showing a change from cooling to heating of the earth-atmosphere system over high-albedo deserts and nearby regions.Over low-albedo ocean negative clear sky radiative forcing by dust may decrease,suggesting a change from strong to weak cooling on the earth-atmosphere system.The impacts of solar altitude angle on cloudy sky radiative forcing due to dust are similar to those of clear sky.Impacts of low cloud on dust radiative forcing are the same as increasing surface albedo.This causes the transition of dust cooling effects into heating effects over deserts to occur earlier,and causes decrease of negative radiative forcing over the ocean and even cause a change from weak negative radiative forcing to weak positive forcing over local areas.Even in the same East Asian desert regions and nearby areas,the strength and sign of the radiative forcings depend on storm dates and thus solar altitude angle.The nearer to early spring (or winter) a dust storm occurs,the easier it leads to negative radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere,which indicates cooling effects on the earth-atmosphere system.In contrast,the nearer to late spring (or summer) a dust storm occurs,the easier it leads to positive radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere,showing heating effects.Over East Asian deserts and nearby regions,dust layers may be regarded as cooling sources in early spring (winter) and warming sources in late spring (summer).     

亚洲地区沙尘和人为气溶胶的分布及气候效应

利用耦合气溶胶化学过程的高分辨率区域气候模式RegCM4,模拟研究了2000~2009年亚洲地区沙尘和3种人为气溶胶（硫酸盐、黑碳、有机碳）的时空分布和直接气候效应。结果表明,模拟的气溶胶光学厚度在沙尘源区附近较为准确,但在人为活动影响较大的地区偏小。4种气溶胶的综合作用引起大气层顶负的辐射强迫,从而造成了地表气温的下降。降水方面,冬夏2季气溶胶对模拟区域的影响都以降水减少为主,这与气溶胶增加大气稳定度,减少地表蒸发并产生了偏北风距平有关。沙尘和人为气溶胶各自都能引起气温的下降和降水的减少,2类气溶胶都能造成的偏北风距平对我国南方降水的减少有重要作用。在人类活动密集区,人为气溶胶引起的气候效应约占总的4种气溶胶气候效应的50%。     

中国地区工业硫酸盐气溶胶对辐射和温度的影响

 将大气化学模式和区域气候模式连接,以中国地区1994年1,4,7,10月为研究对象,模拟了气候变化,并分析了由于大气化学过程形成的硫酸盐气溶胶的对地气系统辐射收支、温度、降水量等气候因子的影响.通过分析发现:硫酸盐气溶胶在晴空大气顶和云天大气顶处产生负的辐射强迫,将使地表温度下降,使降水量减少.     

Increased Arctic cloud longwave emissivity associated with pollution from mid-latitudes

There is consensus among climate models that Arctic climate is particularly sensitive to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and that, over the next century, Arctic surface temperatures are projected to rise at a rate about twice the global mean. The response of Arctic surface temperatures to greenhouse gas thermal emission is modified by Northern Hemisphere synoptic meteorology and local radiative processes. Aerosols may play a contributing factor through changes to cloud radiative properties. Here we evaluate a previously suggested contribution of anthropogenic aerosols to cloud emission and surface temperatures in the Arctic. Using four years of ground-based aerosol and radiation measurements obtained near Barrow, Alaska, we show that, where thin water clouds and pollution are coincident, there is an increase in cloud longwave emissivity resulting from elevated haze levels. This results in an estimated surface warming under cloudy skies of between 3.3 and 5.2 W m(-2) or 1 and 1.6 degrees C. Arctic climate is closely tied to cloud longwave emission, but feedback mechanisms in the system are complex and the actual climate response to the described sensitivity remains to be evaluated.     

Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability

Systematic climate shifts have been linked to multidecadal variability in observed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. These links are extensive, influencing a range of climate processes such as hurricane activity and African Sahel and Amazonian droughts. The variability is distinct from historical global-mean temperature changes and is commonly attributed to natural ocean oscillations. A number of studies have provided evidence that aerosols can influence long-term changes in sea surface temperatures, but climate models have so far failed to reproduce these interactions and the role of aerosols in decadal variability remains unclear. Here we use a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 1860-2005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. After 1950, simulated variability is within observational estimates; our estimates for 1910-1940 capture twice the warming of previous generation models but do not explain the entire observed trend. Other processes, such as ocean circulation, may also have contributed to variability in the early twentieth century. Mechanistically, we find that inclusion of aerosol-cloud microphysical effects, which were included in few previous multimodel ensembles, dominates the magnitude (80 per cent) and the spatial pattern of the total surface aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought. Decadal-scale model predictions of regional Atlantic climate will probably be improved by incorporating aerosol-cloud microphysical interactions and estimates of future concentrations of aerosols, emissions of which are directly addressable by policy actions.     

东亚地区人为硫酸盐气溶胶辐射气候效应不同模拟方法的对比

 利用区域气候模式RegCM2与大气化学模式连接的模拟系统,研究了中国地区人为排放生成的硫酸盐气溶胶分布及其辐射气候效应,并与全球模式的结果进行了比较,同时对比了硫酸盐气溶胶辐射气候效应的在线、离线模拟方法所得结果差异的细致情况.通过以上工作表明:区域气候和大气化学耦合模式系统能在比大气环流模式更精细的尺度上获得硫酸盐分布规律和辐射气候效应;并且区域气候模式与大气化学模式的在线与离线连接方法得到的硫酸盐柱含量、有反馈和无反馈大气顶直接辐射强迫和地表温度响应在较小区域平均的尺度上存在较显著的差异,并且在全区域平均尺度上也不能被忽略;通过对气候响应的进一步分析发现:模拟结果显示了从硫酸盐含量到辐射强迫和地表温度响应逐渐加大的不确定性.     

近红外波段气溶胶粒子形状和性质对散射特性的影响

为了研究近红外波段气溶胶粒子的形状和性质对散射特性的影响,将气溶胶粒子视为非球形粒子,并用T矩阵理论对0.94 μm波段的气溶胶粒子进行了一系列计算分析.计算结果表明:进行单个气溶胶粒子的散射计算时其形状因子是不可忽视的元素,单个气溶胶粒子的散射相函数随着粒子形状的不同在前向和后向有明显变化;进行气溶胶粒子前向体散射计算时非球形粒子近似成球形粒子带来的误差较小,后向误差仍较大;气溶胶粒子性质的不同,即折射指数和数密度的不同对散射特性影响较大.     

A modeling study of aerosol effects on cloud radiative property and precipitation

A two-moment (mass and number) warm cloud scheme together with ground and aircraft measurements over Beijing is used in a regional model to study the effects of aerosols on cloud radiative property and precipitation.Using a prescribed tri-modal lognormal aerosol size distribution,the aerosol numbers are calculated from prognostic aerosol masses,for which advection,diffusion,and cloud drop activation/deactivation are considered.Specifically,the accumulation mode of a tri-lognormal aerosol size distribution i...     

Marine aerosol formation from biogenic iodine emissions

The formation of marine aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei--from which marine clouds originate--depends ultimately on the availability of new, nanometre-scale particles in the marine boundary layer. Because marine aerosols and clouds scatter incoming radiation and contribute a cooling effect to the Earth's radiation budget, new particle production is important in climate regulation. It has been suggested that sulphuric acid derived from the oxidation of dimethyl sulphide is responsible for the production of marine aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei. It was accordingly proposed that algae producing dimethyl sulphide play a role in climate regulation, but this has been difficult to prove and, consequently, the processes controlling marine particle formation remains largely undetermined. Here, using smog chamber experiments under coastal atmospheric conditions, we demonstrate that new particles can form from condensable iodine-containing vapours, which are the photolysis products of biogenic iodocarbons emitted from marine algae. Moreover, we illustrate, using aerosol formation models, that concentrations of condensable iodine-containing vapours over the open ocean are sufficient to influence marine particle formation. We suggest therefore that marine iodocarbon emissions have a potentially significant effect on global radiative forcing.     

Measurement of aerosol optical extinction using diode laser cavity ringdown spectroscopy

Accurate measurement of optical extinction of atmospheric aerosols is important for quantifying the direct climate effects of aerosols. A portable cavity ringdown spectrometer utilizing a modulated multimode blue diode laser (linewidth ～0.2 nm) is developed to measure the aerosol optical extinction. Laboratory generated ammonia sulfate particles (<1 μm in diameter) are characterized, with good agreements between the experimental measurements and Mie theory calculations. An optical extinction detection sensitivity of 0.24 Mm-1 (1σ) is achieved. Measurements of ambient aerosols are also carried out. This study demonstrates the feasibility of a compact, multimode diode laser cavity ringdown spectrometer for sensitive measurements of the optical extinction of atmospheric aerosols.     

用一维辐射传递方程计算二氧化碳的辐射强迫

为得到二氧化碳浓度变化影响下的辐射强迫值,建立了简化的大气层净辐射通量模型.基于辐射传递方程,这个模型可以计算二氧化碳浓度变化引起的大气层每一层净辐射通量以及辐射强迫值.与美国大气与环境研究中心（AER）的RRTM-LW长波辐射传输模型在同一因素下的计算结果进行比较,得到误差不超过1%.     

Case study of longwave contribution to dust radiative effects over East Asia

In order to evaluate the impacts of LW contribution to aerosol radiative effects over East Asia,a dust longwave radiative parameterization scheme is integrated into the online mesoscale dust forecasting model GRAPES_CUACE/dust.A case modeling study shows that about half at surface and one third at TOA of the dust negative shortwave radiative forcing are cancelled by its positive longwave forcing over the dust affected area.In the dust layer,longwave radiation emitting by dust cools the atmosphere,which counteracts about 17%of shortwave heating of atmosphere during daytime and results in cooling of atmosphere simply during nighttime.At the same time,the atmosphere beyond the dust layer is warmed because of absorbing the LW radiation emitted by dust layer.Dust longwave contribution exerts more evident impact on the air temperature in lower atmosphere and surface.The surface air temperature cooling rate resulting from the dust solar radiation is cancelled about 40%by dust longwave warming at daytime.At nighttime,dust longwave contribution warms land and sea surface.The online calculation of dust LW radiation reduces about 15%relative errors of predicted AOD based on the dust model with only SW radiative feedback.This case study result suggests that dust longwave contribution has important impacts on the earth-atmosphere energy process,especially on the surface and in the lower atmosphere and should not be neglected in the study of dust radiation effects.     

我国西北地区沙漠改良可能引起的辐射强迫及其气候效应

以辐射对流模式和区域气候模式为工具，采用虚拟试验的办法，对我国西北地区3种沙漠改良方案（退沙还草，退沙还田，退沙还林）可能产生的辐射强迫及其区域气候效应进行了数值模拟。结果表明：3种方案均能促使西北地区的干旱状况有所缓解，其中退沙还林方案的缓解效应最为明显，可以使得西北地区平均地面气压上升0．25hPa，地面气温降低0．52℃，降水强度增加0．60mm/d。3种方案引起的辐射强迫皆为正值，分别为2．28、2．84、6．79W/m^2，变化趋势与地面温度变化并不一致，表明对于下垫面改变造成的气候强迫而言，辐射强迫并非反映气候变化的较好指标。