Knowledge-scientific evaluation of community service systems

This paper proposes a knowledge-scientific approach to evaluation of community service systems from the viewpoints of knowledge creation, consciousness reform, and value co-creation. A concrete example of the community service system treated here is an education program for old men to find their reason for living after the retirement. After introducing this program and the traditional evaluation methods for such a program, the paper emphasizes the necessity of developing new evaluation methods for such a community service system based on knowledge science. The paper proposes a new evaluation framework and reports an actual evaluation result using the interview data from participants in that program.     

Exploring Community Collaborations: Social Network Analysis as a Reflective Tool for Public Health

Social network analysis is a potentially useful reflective tool that could be used by public health practitioners to assess the overall composition of their networks, strengthen collaborations with other community partners, and evaluate network function. The purpose of this paper is to report on public health practitioners’ experiences with social network analysis. Thirteen public health practitioners, each associated with their own advocacy-oriented community collaboration, participated in the study. Specifically, the intervention consisted of social network analysis output (social network analysis measures and sociograms) and a facilitated discussion to stimulate reflection on the respondents’ professional networks. Semi-structured interviews were conducted two weeks later to solicit participants’ reactions to the sociograms and the accompanying measures, and elicit thoughts about how social network analysis might have an impact on their work. Participants commented on ways in which social network analysis could be applied in practice, such as using sociograms to raise awareness of the nature of current networks, as a planning and evaluation tool, to identify gaps, and to assess the degree of sustainability of current networks.     

无人机电磁环境效应评估及其准则研究

电磁环境效应评估是军用装备性能检验的重要组成部分。基于模型和准则的计算法评价体系，克服了传统试验方法对系统评价所存在的局限，借助计算机辅助工程(CAE)所构造的“虚拟”测试平台，利用飞机结构、任务飞行规划、预期电磁环境、系统效应分析模型和评估准则，可以以较优的费效比获取较高置信度的电磁环境适应性评价。在评估准则研究方面，依据无人机用途、结构特点以及对预期电磁环境的认识或先验知识的掌握程度，从确定性观点和统计分析两个方面，详细探讨了与之相适应的评估准则，以期使无人机电磁环境效应评估能更为客观和完整。     

基于RS-DBN的电子对抗目标清单生成方法

由于电子对抗作战目标类型和工作方式多样, 变化速度快, 有效信息难以充分获得, 且在不同作战阶段呈现出不同特点, 使用传统评估方法难以对其等级排序实施精确评估。对此, 提出一种基于随机集的动态贝叶斯网络电子对抗目标等级评估方法。首先，对电子对抗作战目标清单生成方式进行梳理, 确定了评价指标体系, 并根据作战阶段的变化特点，结合动态贝叶斯网络完善了评价体系。然后, 充分考虑作战过程中数据获取不完整的特点, 通过引入随机集方法将传统贝叶斯网络的节点参数求解方法进行拓展, 使用区间数学的思想得到了较为准确的动态贝叶斯网络节点参数。最后，进行了案例仿真计算和结果分析, 并对节点概率确定方法进行算法复杂度讨论。结果表明，所提方法更加适合样本不完整的军事评估问题, 评估结果与实际作战基本一致, 使用的算法具有高效性、适用性和推广性。     

防空作战电磁环境建模与仿真

以防空作战为背景,分析了战场电磁环境的构成要素,在建立各要素脉冲描述字模型的基础上,提出了基于脉冲流描述的电磁环境建模方法,构建了相应的仿真系统,完成了防空作战电磁环境的动态模拟。绘制出典型作战场景下电磁环境时域、频域、功率域的态势图,仿真结果表明电磁环境具有两个显著特点:动态性与相对性。建模仿真方法对战场电磁环境的仿真构建具有一定的借鉴意义。     

基础项目融资中项目经济性评价的实物期权方法

针对传统评价方法不能对基础项目进行有效评价,在分析基础项目评价的期权特性的基础上,提出了基于实物期权的基础项目经济型评价模型,模型考虑了项目价值的动态变化和项目建设成本的动态变化,计算了项目价值和项目建设成本的双变量项目期权价值,最后,结合NPV评价方法,对基础项目经济性进行评价.     

基于模糊偏序关系的混合型多属性决策方法

针对权重已知且属性值为精确实数型、区间型和模糊型的混合型多属性决策问题,提出了一种基于模糊偏序关系的混合型多属性决策方法。该方法利用混合型评估值模型来描述多属性决策问题;在对属性值预处理后,通过构建混合型模糊偏序关系模型,将决策问题转化为评估关系模型;然后对偏序关系进行集结,得到全序关系,从而获取所有方案的优劣排序。算例验证了方法的有效性。计算过程表明,该方法计算简单,且避免了逼近理想解的排序方法(technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution,TOPSIS)难以合理定义距离函数的局限性。     

成败型系统可靠性增长的动态Bayes评定方法

针对产品研制过程存在多阶段的试验信息和产品性能参数呈现动态变化的特点,提出一种Bayes框架下成败型系统可靠性的动态评估方法.该方法依据产品研制过程中不同研制阶段的试验数据,利用离散AMSAA可靠性增长模型对产品可靠性的变化趋势进行描述,进而对新批次的产品可靠性进行预测,并由最大熵方法给出产品可靠性验前分布的确定方法,再结合产品少量的现场试验数据,对新批次的产品可靠性做出Bayes评估.最后通过实例对比分析,表明该方法很好地解决了小子样产品的可靠性试验评估问题.     

基于非监督贝叶斯学习雷达性能指标动态评估

针对传统雷达性能指标评估方法相对"机械"、缺乏理论约束,需要多次重复实验,导致评估效率较低,评估成本较高等问题,提出基于非监督贝叶斯学习方法的雷达性能指标动态评估算法,在一定雷达探测目标先验假设下,结合典型回波观测数据模型,建立雷达性能指标后验概率模型.考虑到先验知识与观测数据可能存在的非共轭特性,针对先验概率模型建立...     

面向重要供应商和客户的供应链设计方法

与重要供应商和高价值客户建立良好的关系，已经成为企业获得竞争优势的必然选择。本文从供应链核心企业的角度出发，提出了一种面向重要供应商和客户的供应链设计方法。该方法将供应链设计分成两个阶段。首先，利用模糊综合评判法对核心企业的供应商和客户进行评价，获得它们的重要度。然后，建立一个多目标混合整数规划模型来描述供应链设计问题。与基于成本最小化或利润最大化的传统供应链设计模型相比，该模型体现了关系管理的思想，考虑（1）优先向具有较高重要度的供应商采购原料，以建立长期稳定的合作关系。（2）分销中心的选址要尽量接近重要的客户或客户区，以缩短订货的提前期，提高客户服务水平。     

优化差异工件单机批调度问题的混合微粒群算法

研究了单机环境下具有动态到达时间的差异工件批调度问题,设计了微粒群算法对此类问题进行求解,并结合动态规划进行优化.首先给出了问题的微粒表达形式,并根据问题的离散优化特性对微粒状态的更新方法进行了改进;然后将微粒群算法和动态规划算法进行有效结合,改善近似解的质量.在实验中,对各类不同规模的算例均进行了仿真,验证了该算法的有效性.     

Interactive Management: An Emancipatory Methodology

An erosion of the power of people and their communities to control any more than a fragment of their future continues. Educational and governmental policy decisions are, for the most part, mandated from above and/or outside the community. This paper introduces a model which reflects Freire's humanizing pedagogy. This method is a vehicle, an avenue of empowerment for people and their communities to control their own destiny and the future of their community. The model is Interactive Management (IM) and its derivative, The CogniScope System. IM is a specialized system of management using collaborative teamwork to define and resolve highly complex issues. The process includes the integration of the diversity of perceptions of the participants with regard to the given ssues, builds consensus and joint ownership of the process and/or product, and creates a collaborative action plan to accomplish the participants' goals. The principal intangible outcome of the process, however, is the reflective participation, which leads to action, and the learning that occurs among the community of stakeholders present. The process of Interactive Management (IM), enhanced through the use of the CogniScope System, is described and examples of its application by First Nation peoples are shared.     

企业员工流失的演化博弈分析

运用演化博弈论分析完全信息和不完全信息两种条件下企业员工流失的原因和应采取的策略.在完全信息博弈中,只要博弈的双方知道各个收益参数,就可以根据情况采取行动策略使自身利益最大化;不完全信息的重复博弈中,利用动力学方法定性研究演化博弈均衡的稳定性,只有具备有限理性的企业和员工双方都不断地在边际上对其策略进行调整以使得自身利益最大化,博弈才能最终达到一种动态平衡.     

Interval Time Series Analysis with an Application to the Sterling-Dollar Exchange Rate

Traditional econometrics has long employed ＂points＂ to measure time series data. In real life situations, however, it suffers the loss of volatility information, since many variables are bounded by intervals in a given period. To address this issue, this paper provides a new methodology for interval time series analysis. The concept of ＂interval stochastic process＂ is formally defined as a counterpart of ＂stochastic process＂ in point-based econometrics. The authors introduce the concepts of interval stationarity, interval statistics （including interval mean, interval variance, etc.） and propose an interval linear model to investigate the dynamic relationships between interval processes. A new interval-based optimization approach for estimation is proposed, and corresponding evaluation criteria are derived. To demonstrate that the new interval method provides valid results, an empirical example on the sterling-dollar exchange rate is presented.     

一种基于弱标签的三维模型语义自动标注方法

随着三维应用的普及,三维模型大量产生并广泛传播。由于三维模型广泛应用于计算机辅助设计、三维游戏、电影特效制作等诸多领域,已经形成了大量的三维模型数据库。三维模型语义标注的目的是给出描述其语义的标注词,是三维模型管理和基于文本的三维检索的关键技术。针对互联网大量存在的弱标签三维模型现状,提出一种基于弱标签的三维模型语义标注方法LPMLL,首先,采用半监督学习方法进行标签传播,得到标注词置信度,达到提升训练集的目的。然后,采用一种基于最大后验概率准则的方法进行多标签学习,得到最终标注词。实验数据表明了该方法的有效性。     

动态社团发现研究综述

为适应当前动态网络数据的发展,对动态网络中的社团结构进行检测、追踪和预测,对国内外关于动态网络社团发现与演化的相关文献进行了综述。归纳了动态网络的社团发现算法,清晰了社团演化事件的定义,并梳理了社团发现与演化算法的应用场景。通过文献梳理,提出将来动态社团的研究应注重在大数据集上的算法优化、在多语境下的信息挖掘和在多场景下的应用性。     

Learning by Action Research: A Policy for School Development

In this article I define a project organization as action research. Thus defined, the approach presents a method for experiential learning among educators who develop as learners in an educational setting. Second, the approach describes a method for focusing on research related to change in classroom didactics brought about by the mediating instruments educators discover and use so as to overcome their own learning anxiety. Third, action research and academic investigation are described as a method for integrating theory with practice. Finally, action research is outlined as an effort for social justice—the way knowledge usually develops by social construction.     

Systems and Environmental Decision Making—Postgraduate Open Learning with the Open University

Environmental issues affect everyone though the ways in which people engage with them varies a great deal. The Open University's Masters program in environmental decision making has at its core a modular course that enables students to incorporate environmental factors into their decision making from a starting point of identifying their own environmental issues using a systems approach. Students carry out a project based on their own experience in a decision-making situation of their own choice. A framework for environmental decision making is introduced and students learn how to use the framework systematically, systemically and critically. The course has evolved since it was first introduced in 1997 as both students and the course team have learnt about environmental decision making together. This paper analyses and interprets some of the data that have emerged from students projects since the course began.     

基于序贯贝叶斯参数学习的Lévy动态波动率模型研究

非高斯动态波动率模型及其计量是现代金融的重要研究内容.基于Levy-GARCH动态波动率模型,引入了序贯贝叶斯参数学习方法,并进行SP500指数的跳跃风险溢价估计、欧式期权定价、风险测度评估的实证研究.研究表明,相比傅里叶变换的极大似然估计,序贯贝叶斯参数学习显著改进了各模型的期权定价能力.研究还发现,带跳跃随机模型的风险度量更加准确;跳跃风险溢价明显高于扩散风险的溢价;跳跃强度越大,风险的市场价格越高.     

基于GA-Fuzzy的混沌系统辨识研究

提出用遗传算法优化的Takagi-Sugeno-Kang(TSK)模糊模型对未知或不确定的混沌动力学系统进行辨识。在辨识未知混沌系统的TSK模型过程中，只需利用未知混沌系统的输出时间序列。首先，采用模糊聚类分析方法从训练数据建立其初始TSK模糊模型。然后采用实数编码的遗传算法对初始模型进行优化设计。同时为防止破坏模糊规则的语义属性，对遗传搜索空间采取了适当的限制。用辨识模型重建吸引子方法定性地评价辨识模型，通过计算辨识模型的Lyapunov指数定量地评价辨识模型的性能。仿真结果表明，该辨识模型能很好地逼近原混沌动力学系统，准确地体现原混沌系统的动力学特性。