Computing the variance of the forecast error for the holt-winters seasonal models

This paper presents expressions for the variance of the forecast error for arbitrary lead times for both the additive and multiplicative Holt-Winters seasonal forecasting models. It is shown that even when the smoothing constants are chosen to have values between zero and one, when the period is greater than four, the variance may not be finite for some values of the smoothing constants. In addition, the regions where the variance becomes infinite are almost the same for both models. These results are of importance for practitioners, who may choose values for the smoothing constants arbitrarily, or by searching on the unit cube for values which minimize the sum of the squared errors when fitting the model to a data set. It is also shown that the variance of the forecast error for the multiplicative model is nonstationary and periodic.     

Scepticism,relativism and the argument from the criterion

This article explores the relationship between epistemic relativism and Pyrrhonian scepticism. It is argued that a fundamental argument for contemporary epistemic relativism derives from the Pyrrhonian problem of the criterion. Pyrrhonian scepticism is compared and contrasted with Cartesian scepticism about the external world and Humean scepticism about induction. Epistemic relativism is characterized as relativism due to the variation of epistemic norms, and is contrasted with other forms of cognitive relativism, such as truth relativism, conceptual relativism and ontological relativism. An argument from the Pyrrhonian problem of the criterion to epistemic relativism is presented, and is contrasted with three other arguments for epistemic relativism. It is argued that the argument from the criterion is the most fundamental argument for epistemic relativism. Finally, it is noted how the argument of the present paper fits with the author’s previous suggestion that a particularist response to the Pyrrhonian sceptic may be combined with a naturalistic view of epistemic warrant to meet the challenge of epistemic relativism.     

On the epistemological foundations of the law of the lever

In this paper I challenge Paolo Palmieri’s reading of the Mach—Vailati debate on Archimedes’ proof of the law of the lever. I argue that the actual import of the debate concerns the possible epistemic (as opposed to merely pragmatic) role of mathematical arguments in empirical physics, and that construed in this light Vailati carries the upper hand. This claim is defended by showing that Archimedes’ proof of the law of the lever is not a way of appealing to a non-empirical source of information, but a way of explicating the mathematical structure that can represent the empirical information at our disposal in the most general way.     

Many worlds,the cluster-state quantum computer,and the problem of the preferred basis

I argue that the many worlds explanation of quantum computation is not licensed by, and in fact is conceptually inferior to, the many worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics from which it is derived. I argue that the many worlds explanation of quantum computation is incompatible with the recently developed cluster state model of quantum computation. Based on these considerations I conclude that we should reject the many worlds explanation of quantum computation.     

Influence of N-methylformamide on the development, the NAD synthesis, and the activity of the ADPR transferase of rat embryos

When N-methylformamide is administered to rats on the 11th day of pregnancy approximately 50% of the fetuses are resorbed and a reduced weight of the developed animals is found in comparison to the controls on the 21th day (delivery by Caesarian section). The toxic effect is increased by using nicotinamide and methionine. If a combination of these substances is employed practically all fetuses are resorbed. Tryptophan, however, has a considerably protective influence. N-Methylformamide has no influence on the NAD-synthesis induced by nicotinamide or tryptophan. It does, however, inhibits the activity of the ADPR transferase.     

Impulse propagation from the SA-node to the ventricles

Normally the pacemaker of the mammalian heart is located in the sinus node. In the rabbit the sinus node can be subdivided into two regions, the center of the node where the impulse originates and the border zone through which the impulse is conducted towards the atrium. Conduction properties of both regions were investigated. It appeared that conduction velocity increases and refractoriness decreases when one goes from the nodal center towards the atrium. The tissue mass of the atrium is large in comparison to the sinus node and normally the resting membrane potential of atrial fibers is more negative than that of nodal fibers; consequently, a potential difference exists causing a current flow between both areas. Evidently this hyperpolarizing current flow depresses impulse formation in the border zone fibers which have better intrinsic pacemaker properties than fibers in the nodal center. If the impulse has reached the atrium it is conducted with a relatively high safety factor and will reach the AV node in principle without difficulty. The AV node, if deprived of sinus nodal dominance, develops spontaneous activity originating from the lower nodal fibers. Also in this structure, electrotonic depression by surrounding tissue causes deceleration of the pacemaker.     

Misuses of biology in the context of the paranormal

Public suspicion of science stems from science's challenging of perceptions and myths about reality, and a public fear of new technology. The result is a susceptibility to pseudoscience. In claiming that creation 'science' is as valid as evolution the creationists misquote scientists and seek to spread their own 'scientific' myths concerning a young age for the earth, an act of creation based on a particular literalist interpretation of the Christian Bible and a single worldwide flood. They use methods of debate and politics, rather than scientific research. A selection of their arguments is examined and the nature of the evidence for evolution is discussed. Problems with the creation 'science' model are noted. In the myth of the hundredth monkey phenomenon, original research is misquoted to denigrate scientific research and support sentimental ideas of paranormal events. The misuse of science is seen as damaging to society because it reduces the effective gathering and application of scientific information. However, pseudoscience provides a valuable guide to gaps in public scientific education.     

Impulse propagation from the SA-node to the ventricles

Summary Normally the pacemaker of the mammalian heart is located in the sinus node. In the rabbit the sinus node can be subdivided into two regions, the center of the node where the impulse originates and the border zone through which the impulse is conducted towards the atrium. Conduction properties of both regions were investigated. It appeared that conduction velocity increases and refractoriness decreases when one goes from the nodal center towards the atrium. The tissue mass of the atrium is large in comparison to the sinus node and normally the resting membrane potential of atrial fibers is more negative than that of nodal fibers; consequently, a potential difference exists causing a current flow between both areas. Evidently this hyperpolarizing current flow depresses impulse formation in the border zone fibers which have better intrinsic pacemaker properties than fibers in the nodal center. If the impulse has reached the atrium it is conducted with a relatively high safety factor and will reach the AV node in principle without difficulty. The AV node, if deprived of sinus nodal dominance, develops spontaneous activity originating from the lower nodal fibers. Also in this structure, electrotonic depression by surrounding tissue causes deceleration of the pacemaker.     

Studies on the modulation of the desensitization of the pituitary gland by luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone in the ovariectomized rat

In ovariectomized rats the desensitization of the LH cells in vivo, which develops during constant rate infusion of LHRH, 1) does not depend on a concomitant depletion of the pituitary LH stores, 2) proceeds normally when the hypothalamo-pituitary connection has been severed and 3) is a process in which LH itself is not involved.     

Development of the innervation of the urogenital complex in the fetal mouse

The developing urogenital complex of the fetal mouse was studied by means of silver impregnation and electron microscopy. These studies showed that: 1) the mesonephric field is innervated during prenatal stages (Wolffian nerve); 2) nerve penetration precedes the differentiation of the gonads and related ducts; and 3) the Wolffian nerve arises during the earliest stages from the first pair of abdominal rami communicantes. The identity between the fetal Wolffian nerve and the nerve of the suspensory ligament (higher pathway) of the adult is discussed.     

Studies on the modulation of the desensitization of the pituitary gland by luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone in the ovariectomized rat

Summary In ovariectomized rats the desensitization of the LH cells in vivo, which develops during constant rate infusion of LHRH, 1) does not depend on a concomitant depletion of the pituitary LH stores, 2) proceeds normally when the hypothalamo-pituitary connection has been severed and 3) is a process in which LH itself is not involved.     

Development of the innervation of the urogenital complex in the fetal mouse

Summary The developing urogenital complex of the fetal mouse was studied by means of silver impregnation and electron microscopy. These studies showed that: 1) the mesonephric field is innervated during prenatal stages (Wolffian nerve); 2) nerve penetration precedes the differentiation of the gonads and related ducts; and 3) the Wolffian nerve arises during the earliest stages from the first pair of abdominal rami communicantes. The identity between the fetal Wolffian nerve and the nerve of the suspensory ligament (higher pathway) of the adult is discussed.     

A quantitative study of the catecholamine-fluorescence in the ganglion paracervicale uteri of the rat

In the ganglion paracervicale uteri of the rat, there are principle neurons which are able to take up offered catecholamines. Normally there is an inverse relationship between their size and their mean catecholamine-fluorescence. A comparison with the catecholamine-fluorescence of depleted and repleted adrenergic perikarya in the ganglion cervicale superius is made.     

Aristotle, Copernicus, Bruno: centrality, the principle of movement and the extension of the Universe

This paper¹ studies the different conceptions of both centrality and the principle or starting point of motion in the Universe held by Aristotle and later on by Copernicanism until Kepler and Bruno. According to Aristotle, the true centre of the Universe is the sphere of the fixed stars. This is also the starting point of motion. From this point of view, the diurnal motion is the fundamental one. Our analysis gives pride of place to De caelo II, 10, a chapter of Aristotle’s text which curiously allows an ‘Alpetragian’ reading of the transmission of motion.In Copernicus and the Copernicans, natural centrality is identified with the geometrical centre and, therefore, the Sun is acknowledged as the body through which the Deity acts on the world and it also plays the role of the principle and starting point of cosmic motion. This motion, however, is no longer diurnal motion, but the annual periodical motion of the planets. Within this context, we pose the question of to what extent it is possible to think that, before Kepler, there is a tacit attribution of a dynamic or motive role to the Sun by Copernicus, Rheticus, and Digges.For Bruno, since the Universe is infinite and homogeneous and the relationship of the Deity with it is one of indifferent presence everywhere, the Universe has no absolute centre, for any point is a centre. By the same token, there is no place that enjoys the prerogative of being—as being the seat of God—the motionless principle and starting point of motion.     

Studies on the transmembrane ion currents in the smooth-muscle cells of the gastric fundus

Summary Under voltage-clamp conditions fast Ca²⁺-inward and early K⁺-outward currents were recorded from the smooth-muscle cells of the gastric fundus. It is assumed that the less electrical excitability of these cells is due to the early activation of the outward current.     

Goethe's Archetype and the romantic concept of the self

This paper attempts to illuminate Goethe's concept of an archetype by setting it alongside the concept of the self that was being articulated at the same time, also by writers of the Romantic movement. The Romantic concept of the self expresses a new concept of the self as a 'core' plus an expression of the core: and it is the same 'core plus expression' idea that is embodied in the Goethean archetype. Goethe's archetype is not simply a 'plan'. It is a kind of agent at the heart of a thing, striving for self expression, and to this end driving the thing's development. Both Romantic self and archetype reflect the wider attempt to reinstate the concept of action in our understanding of things and happenings in general. The root idea of there being at the heart of a living thing an agent pursuing a goal remains in the modern concept of the organism.     

The Casimir Effect and the Interpretation of the Vacuum

The Casimir force between two neutral metallic plates is often considered conclusive evidence for the reality of electromagnetic zero-point fluctuations in ‘empty space’ (i.e. in absence of any boundaries). However, it is not well known that the Casimir force can be derived from many different points of view. The purpose of this note is to supply a conceptually oriented introduction to a representative set of these different interpretations. The different accounts suggest that the Casimir effect reveals nothing conclusive about the nature of the vacuum.     

Mitotic activity in the glandular epithelium of the rat small intestine after electrothermocoagulation of the tubero-infundibular region of the hypothalamus and simultaneous resection of the pineal gland]

Radio-frequency lesions of the tubero-infundibular region of the hypothalamus and simultaneous pinealectomy are performed in rats. The double operation is followed by a significant increase of mitotic rate in the small intestine glandular epithelium. This increase is higher than the addition of the effects that are caused by each operation.     

Modelling the daily banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the European Central Bank

The main focus of this paper is to model the daily series of banknotes in circulation. The series of banknotes in circulation displays very marked seasonal patterns. To the best of our knowledge the empirical performance of two competing approaches to model seasonality in daily time series, namely the ARIMA‐based approach and the Structural Time Series approach, has never been put to the test. The application presented in this paper provides valid intuition on the merits of each approach. The forecasting performance of the models is also assessed in the context of their impact on the liquidity management of the Eurosystem. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A note on the evolution of the transducer mechanism of the vertebrate retinal rod

Summary The Ca²⁺-gating mechanism that is the key component of membrane excitability in Paramecium has recently been localized on the cilia of this animal. Such a finding shows how the change in Ca²⁺ permeability (which is the probable consequence of the photoisomerization of rhodopsin) of the discs of the outer segments of the retinal rods could have evolved.